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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote:
Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了"
My translation:
"The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
Preface
I occasionally bet on StarCraft matches for fun, so naturally when the WESG Finals came on, I decided to check out the odds on Pinnacle to see if there were any prices worthwhile.
For those who don't know, WESG is a tournament that invites the best players from their respective regions around the world to play each other in a sort of "world cup" format. The problem is, this usually leads to some one-sided matchups.
Enter WESG 2018, Group F:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/Gtaim5M.png)
When I first saw this group, one name stood out to me: Seventy91. It seemed that all the other members of this group were fairly established in the scene, but Seventy91 was a wildcard. Indeed, after some searching around, I was able to find Seventy91's battle.net account, which revealed that he was sub-4000 MMR casual player in Diamond 2:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/AQfDP1d.jpg)
With all other members of the group above the 6000 MMR level, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seventy91 would get swept out of the group, losing to every single opponent 0-2. With that in mind, I checked out the odds a few hours before the group started and decided it would be worthwhile to bet on several of Seventy91's opponents to win against him 2-0 (in gambling terms, this is betting against a -1.5 spread).
One of the other players in this group was MacSed, a Chinese Protoss player who usually hovers around 6000-6300 MMR. You would certainly expect a player of this calibre to 2-0 a sub-4000 MMR player over 99% of the time, and that might be an understatement. The price on MacSed winning 2-0 against Seventy91 initially hovered between 1.34-1.37, meaning you could see a 34-37% return when betting on him to win without dropping a map. I put $300 on this bet, as shown:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/juFlBqo.png)
Here is the thing. At the skill gap of 2000+ MMR and that price, most bettors would agree that this bet has very high EV. The opening line was already priced as if Seventy91 was a 5000+ MMR player, not sub-4000. Nobody in their right mind would bet on the Seventy91 +1.5 spread in this situation.
A couple hours after placing my bet, I noticed that the line for MacSed - 1.5 had moved tremendously, from 1.34 to 2.06. This type of line movement is almost unheard of in SC2. For those unaware, when prices move like this, it can only mean that a person or a group of people have bet an extremely high amount on a single side. In this case, this means that huge money was being put on Seventy91 to win at least one map against MacSed. This is not a natural betting pattern, and given the skill disparity between the two players, I am almost certain that the bets were made with match fixing in mind.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/OAAxyE6.png)
Just look at the difference between the money line price of 1.1 for MacSed compared to the -1.5 spread price of 2.06. This means that somebody out there was confident enough to bet thousands on Seventy91 to win a map, but still thought that MacSed would win the series. This is not a decision that any normal bettor would make without knowledge of a match fix. If you compare the MacSed vs Seventy91 line to the other matches, such as INnoVation vs Stephano, you will see that it is a ludicrous disparity.
Indeed, the match went on and, to no surprise, MacSed ended up losing a map to a player over 2000 MMR below him, in a mirror matchup no less. From my knowledge of this situation, I feel that there is no explanation other than match fixing.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/0S1ivpA.png)
It is also worth noting that the opening lines were similar on all the other matches that Seventy91 played that day, but there were ZERO signs of any bets made towards Seventy91 on those matches. The only match where Seventy91 gained any momentum in the bets was against MacSed, and that ended up being the only map won by Seventy91 in the group stage.
To summarize:
- MacSed (6000-6300 MMR Protoss) played a Best-of-3 match against Seventy91 (<4000 MMR Protoss) in the WESG 2018 group stage and won 2-1.
- Betting trends indicate that a huge amount of money was placed for Seventy91 to win a map against MacSed a couple hours before the match started. This heavily skewed the lines to the point where there was an implied >50% probability that Seventy91 would win a game, which is ludicrous.
- MacSed likely got offered a sum of money from a broker to lose a map against Seventy91.
- MacSed knows that Seventy is a weak opponent, so he will still be able to win the series 2-1 and still have hope to move on in the tournament.
- Chinese players have a history with match fixing (see Silky, Coffee, and others banned in 2017). I should have considered that before making any bets on this.
I hope that the replay will be released and that Blizzard/WESG takes this allegation seriously. I know that this is not the most important match, but this is how match fixing scandals start and begin to grow. Although this does not affect the outcome of the tournament, this behaviour cannot be tolerated and I hope that proper investigation takes place so that we can put a stop to this in the future.
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Fuck 
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
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On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote:Fuck
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I thought maybe Seventy91 was a smurf so I look up how he qualified. He played one match lost to ZeRoX 3-2 -- the highest Zerox player on EU is a master player. Zerox forfeited his spot so that's how Seventy91 got in, so yeah Seventy91 probably is a real <4000 MMR player. I don't see how a <4000 player can take a game off of a 6k+ player, I don't even see them taking a single game off of a 5.2k NA player. Macsed looking pretty suspect here trying to pull a Life by throwing a game and winning the series lol.
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Well his "road" to qualification which is losing a series to an unknown doesn't really instill any trust in his abilities. For Macsed to lose an important game versus a diamond 2 player is basically impossible, add to that the statistics you've shown and it doesn't really leave any room for doubt.
If everything you post above is correct this does paint a worrying picture, hope it gets proven and punished if true.
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Did anyone watch the actual games, or were they not streamed?
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WESG replays just became interesting for yet another reason.
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On March 13 2019 09:13 phodacbiet wrote:
I thought maybe Seventy91 was a smurf so I look up how he qualified. He played one match lost to ZeRoX 3-2 -- the highest Zerox player on EU is a master player. Zerox forfeited his spot so that's how Seventy91 got in, so yeah Seventy91 probably is a real <4000 MMR player. I don't see how a <4000 player can take a game off of a 6k+ player, I don't even see them taking a single game off of a 5.2k NA player. Macsed looking pretty suspect here trying to pull a Life by throwing a game and winning the series lol.
If you look it up on Aligulac, it shows "ZeRoX' as a 700 rated player - obviously not good and potentially even below master level. Link: aligulac.com (Note the AKA section indicates this is ZeRoX)
In addition, I am certain that the account that I found is tied to Seventy91. The clan is [sfc] and you can see that it leads to this Liquipedia page which has Seventy91 on the roster: liquipedia.net
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Don't many players use more than one account, and this dude simply used his Asian server one? And I'm pretty sure you can win a PvP <2000 down. Diamond players can proxy competently, If I played 10 games against these players where they assume I'm a pro I could maybe sneak out a win as a High Diamond.
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Shouldn't the title say 2019?
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On March 13 2019 09:21 Achamian wrote:
Don't many players use more than one account, and this dude simply used his Asian server one? And I'm pretty sure you can win a PvP <2000 down. Diamond players can proxy competently, If I played 10 games against these players where they assume I'm a pro I could maybe sneak out a win as a High Diamond.
Well he has almost 2000 games as protoss on this account so unless someone else ladder on it's must be around his real level.
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On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote:Fuck Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
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Yep this is why I stop betting. There's a lot of match fixing in SC2 and CS:GO that goes unnoticed. I lost quite a bit in the past two years from this.
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On March 13 2019 09:21 Achamian wrote:
Don't many players use more than one account, and this dude simply used his Asian server one? And I'm pretty sure you can win a PvP <2000 down. Diamond players can proxy competently, If I played 10 games against these players where they assume I'm a pro I could maybe sneak out a win as a High Diamond.
Against a player far better than you and him aware of the skill disparity, I doubt he would allow himself to be proxied to a loss in a tournament setting, right? Things like this can be planned for especially if you're aware that you will most certainly win the game if it lasts long enough.
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the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence～
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On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote:Fuck Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok? Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
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WESG is probably the best tournament to do this, because most of the matches aren't broadcast. If this is true, it sucks because MacSed is one of the most prolific Chinese players in SC2. He's been around since WoL, but he hasn't accomplished much recently, and probably feels that throwing a game is probably his best bet to get some extra money before he retires.
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On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote:
the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence～
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote:Fuck Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok? Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0. didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made 
Good to know that Drager is a legit good player
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Just to make sure, the betting closes before the match actually starts right?
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EPT
