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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote:
Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了"
My translation:
"The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything.
We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
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On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Which was most likely a blanket statement.
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On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department.
Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms!
Edit: Fixed for typo
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On March 21 2019 01:00 Xophy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department. Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms! Edit: Fixed for typo
See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us.
And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match, but they did find fault with the CSGO match. Pinnacle found evidence that the CSGO match deserved a refund while they didn't find the same thing with the MacSed match. It's that simple, really.
What I find the most pathetic in this thread is that people refuse to accept the result from Pinnacle. The OP included.
Now if there is further evidence that MacSed fixed his match, such as an announcement from WESG, or a reversal from Pinnacle, etc, then it's fair to pull out the pitchforks for MacSed's head. But until then, accept the facts that followed after the OP's posting, as much as those facts don't further prove the OP's theory.
Are so many people emotionally invested in believing that MacSed fixed this match that they won't accept the new facts that came out? If further, concrete evidence comes out that shows MacSed fixed this match, I would gladly support banning MacSed from all future SC2 tournaments. But it appears there are people that are so emotionally invested into seeing MacSed as guilty, that they refuse to accept the facts that came out after the OP's original post. The most laughable people are the ones that even got mad at Rotti because Rotti dared to share his opinion on the match (like really, you are now angry at Rotti just because he shared his opinion, what is wrong with you?)
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On March 20 2019 21:59 HsDLTitich wrote:
People still refusing to accept that Pinnacle didn't find anything wrong/suspicious about the betting lines...
"Those errors can happen in professional starcraft"
"Ye but you don't have to look at the game, look at the betting lines!"
"Pinnacle says there's nothing wrong with them"
"LA LA LA CAN'T HEAR YOU"
Can't believe this thread is even still open, you guys are throwing baseless accusations because someone lost a bet and clearly has an axe to grind
Pretty much this. And some people are so emotionally invested into seeing that MacSed is guilty, they are even angry at Rotti now. ROFL.
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damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
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On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:00 Xophy wrote:On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department. Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms! Edit: Fixed for typo See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us. And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match
Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid.
What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
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On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene.
Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays.
And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
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On March 21 2019 01:35 stilt wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
Feardragon's general point was that we don't know the circumstances. Coincidences can and do happen. One guy can take a risky bet based on odds that he sees as worth it, while another player can suffer an embarrassing defeat for a number of reasons on the same match.
Innocent until proven guilty is not a naive position, it is a rational and necessary one. Otherwise, we as a community will end up doling out undeserved punishments at some point. I think we all agree that this looks bad. However, there simply isn't enough evidence to be able to say with rational certainty that MacSed was involved in match-fixing.
What further investigation are we calling for, anyway? Who should lead it? Who is going to pay for it?
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On March 21 2019 01:52 ZerglingSoup wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:35 stilt wrote:On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly. Feardragon's general point was that we don't know the circumstances. Coincidences can and do happen. One guy can take a risky bet based on odds that he sees as worth it, while another player can suffer an embarrassing defeat for a number of reasons on the same match. Innocent until proven guilty is not a naive position, it is a rational and necessary one. Otherwise, we as a community will end up doling out undeserved punishments at some point. I think we all agree that this looks bad. However, there simply isn't enough evidence to be able to say with rational certainty that MacSed was involved in match-fixing. What further investigation are we calling for, anyway? Who should lead it? Who is going to pay for it?
Police, this kind of stuff is quite often linked to a mafia and it's illegal anyway.
sc2 community is a microcosm, an investigation within it by its own members is a ridiculous idea, in a perfect world, it would be the job of a prosecutor or sth, well, the case is obviously not big enough but that's just sad.
These "risky bets" as you called them are always rights in particulary weird matchs.
As for innocent until proven guilty, sure, that's how justice works but justice won't settle this matter anyway just like our opinions cannot matter in the slightest anyway as macsed seems to be a top dog of the community seeing how anyone jumps in order to protect him despite the later matchfixing scandals (even MKP didn't have so much support while at least, the bet line could be justified as it was a game between 2 progamers and Byul was a clear favorite) it's hard to not sense a feeling of impunity toward this pratice.
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On March 21 2019 01:52 ZerglingSoup wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:35 stilt wrote:On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly. Feardragon's general point was that we don't know the circumstances. Coincidences can and do happen. One guy can take a risky bet based on odds that he sees as worth it, while another player can suffer an embarrassing defeat for a number of reasons on the same match. Innocent until proven guilty is not a naive position, it is a rational and necessary one. Otherwise, we as a community will end up doling out undeserved punishments at some point. I think we all agree that this looks bad. However, there simply isn't enough evidence to be able to say with rational certainty that MacSed was involved in match-fixing. What further investigation are we calling for, anyway? Who should lead it? Who is going to pay for it?
Without Pinnacle or other sites like it voiding a bet like this sports organizations and authorities aren't likely to conduct any investigations. But you still hope they will. I wonder what kespaaaa would've done.
Yeah, there probably never was or will be any proper investigation but people can still discuss the circumstances around this occurrence.
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On March 21 2019 02:21 stilt wrote:
As for innocent until proven guilty, sure, that's how justice works but justice won't settle this matter anyway just like our opinions cannot matter in the slightest anyway as macsed seems to be a top dog of the community seeing how anyone jumps in order to protect him despite the later matchfixing scandals (even MKP didn't have so much support while at least, the bet line could be justified as it was a game between 2 progamers and Byul was a clear favorite) it's hard to not sense a feeling of impunity toward this pratice.
I agree with how you feel, but we just can't end someone's career based on circumstantial evidence. Like I said, eventually that would go wrong for us if the broader Starcraft community made a habit of acting on this kind of emotional urge. I do agree that it sucks to feel like MacSed might have got away with something, but if we can bring ourselves to accept that we weren't in the room and we can't be 100% sure of it the matter (even if we want to be), then I think we can move on and enjoy MacSed's future games without continuing to be upset about this.
I'd love to see this looked into and monitored more and perhaps we can use this case as an argument of why it would be good for Starcraft if we could ultimately eliminate these questions of impropriety with a proper investigatory body. But realistically, Starcraft doesn't have the funding or infrastructure in place to do that. The best recourse, therefore, isn't to go around smearing the player as a means of enacting 'vigilante justice'. That only hurts everybody.
I think it would be better to channel our energies into more productive efforts. We should be strongly discouraging betting on Starcraft in the first place, as it only creates more of these temptations for these kids who already struggle to make ends meet. We should be petitioning Blizzard to help set up structures to prevent this from happening. After all, with their actions towards KeSPA they made it 100% clear that they consider this responsibility to be part of their intellectual property rights, so we should hold them to it.
Ultimately, we should be supporting players, sharing Starcraft with our friends and talking about how awesome it is and how much we love the game. With a continued increase in popularity, more safeguards will be able to come along to prevent this type of thing from happening in the future.
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On March 21 2019 03:23 ZerglingSoup wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 02:21 stilt wrote:
As for innocent until proven guilty, sure, that's how justice works but justice won't settle this matter anyway just like our opinions cannot matter in the slightest anyway as macsed seems to be a top dog of the community seeing how anyone jumps in order to protect him despite the later matchfixing scandals (even MKP didn't have so much support while at least, the bet line could be justified as it was a game between 2 progamers and Byul was a clear favorite) it's hard to not sense a feeling of impunity toward this pratice. I agree with how you feel, but we just can't end someone's career based on circumstantial evidence. Like I said, eventually that would go wrong for us if the broader Starcraft community made a habit of acting on this kind of emotional urge. I do agree that it sucks to feel like MacSed might have got away with something, but if we can bring ourselves to accept that we weren't in the room and we can't be 100% sure of it the matter (even if we want to be), then I think we can move on and enjoy MacSed's future games without continuing to be upset about this. I'd love to see this looked into and monitored more and perhaps we can use this case as an argument of why it would be good for Starcraft if we could ultimately eliminate these questions of impropriety with a proper investigatory body. But realistically, Starcraft doesn't have the funding or infrastructure in place to do that. The best recourse, therefore, isn't to go around smearing the player as a means of enacting 'vigilante justice'. That only hurts everybody. I think it would be better to channel our energies into more productive efforts. We should be strongly discouraging betting on Starcraft in the first place, as it only creates more of these temptations for these kids who already struggle to make ends meet. We should be petitioning Blizzard to help set up structures to prevent this from happening. After all, with their actions towards KeSPA they made it 100% clear that they consider this responsibility to be part of their intellectual property rights, so we should hold them to it. Ultimately, we should be supporting players, sharing Starcraft with our friends and talking about how awesome it is and how much we love the game. With a continued increase in popularity, more safeguards will be able to come along to prevent this type of thing from happening in the future.
What a zen post, so on point and very well written. I'm really struggling with my own feelings of frustration and helplessness but you're right in all regards.
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On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:00 Xophy wrote:On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department. Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms! Edit: Fixed for typo See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us. And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match, but they did find fault with the CSGO match. Pinnacle found evidence that the CSGO match deserved a refund while they didn't find the same thing with the MacSed match. It's that simple, really.
This is too funny. You're arguing against yourself here and you don't even know it. Pinnacle being a blackbox is a strong reason why we can't assume Macsed is innocent based on their statement. We have no idea what they did. We don't even know if they actually seriously investigated the case or maybe they didn't really do anything and are just telling us that they currently don't have proof of matchfixing. Your arguments that I have read here are all based on extremely flawed logic.
I have no problem at all with attempting to defend Macsed but you better use solid logic when you do so. You're just adding a bunch of filth to this thread. Poor reasoning is a huge pet peeve of mine because it's rampant all around the world. That is what I'm fighting against, not the fact that you're defending Macsed.
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On March 21 2019 05:17 NinjaNight wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 01:00 Xophy wrote:On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department. Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms! Edit: Fixed for typo See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us. And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match, but they did find fault with the CSGO match. Pinnacle found evidence that the CSGO match deserved a refund while they didn't find the same thing with the MacSed match. It's that simple, really. This is too funny. You're arguing against yourself here and you don't even know it. Pinnacle being a blackbox is a strong reason why we can't assume Macsed is innocent based on their statement. We have no idea what they did. We don't even know if they actually seriously investigated the case or maybe they didn't really do anything and are just telling us that they currently don't have proof of matchfixing. Your arguments that I have read here are all based on extremely flawed logic. I have no problem at all with attempting to defend Macsed but you better use solid logic when you do so. You're just adding a bunch of filth to this thread. Poor reasoning is a huge pet peeve of mine because it's rampant all around the world. That is what I'm fighting against, not the fact that you're defending Macsed.
What are you going to do about it? Barge down the door at Pinnacle with a machine gun, hold everybody hostage at Pinnacle, and then force the Pinnacle employees to tell you exactly how they came to the conclusion that there was no suspicious betting for MacSed's game?
The point is, Pinnacle's statement is final, unless they decide to make a second statement. No amount of noise you make will change their mind to make a second statement with more details of the incident. As such, we know that Pinnacle found enough evidence that the CSGO match had suspicious betting but MacSed's match did not.
Accept this and move on. But if you are like many of the people in this thread with an emotional attachment to seeing that MacSed must be guilty, then I feel very sorry for you.
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On March 21 2019 01:31 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 01:00 Xophy wrote:On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department. Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms! Edit: Fixed for typo See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us. And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid. What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation.
What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already.
You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero.
Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate.
Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
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On March 21 2019 01:35 stilt wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:23 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
damn, what a mess.. It's absolutely crazy to me that some people still are defending what this dude did and are not seeing anything suspicious in either the game or the betting lines.. (how much of a naive dum-dum can You be? naive or just a contrarian spammer, that is). Damn shame that there will be no further investigation into this at all, so it will go absolutely unpunished, I guess..
Yes, this shitty tournament and the handling of this case is really hurting the integrity of the scene. Rotti defense video compared to Beastiqt really saddened me. That's the kind of stuff which makes me want to leave the game nowadays. And feardragon defense : 'maybe he lost a member of his family"... It's a fucking shame honestly.
My point was not “I think this happened”. It was, before we publicly condemn a player and end a 10+ year career and livlihood of a player, let’s wait until we hear their side of the story. I said multiple times it was weird and suspicious but that I believe in waiting to hear all sides because public opinion is not something easily reversed. I gave an off example of something unlikely but possible. Why are so many people taking this out of context?
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everyone should keep in mind that this is not a trial and we are not a jury. Nothing we say here is going to affect Macsed's life, or anyone else's.
it's just a discussion. So, to say we think Macsed is guilty carries no weight, his career is fine. If there are any repercussions it won't be because of a TL thread, it will be because of an independent investigation.
so, in the name of discussion, I'll say that if you think a lot of money being bet on Seventy91 taking a map off Macsed (and no one else, by the way), and then Macsed playing one of the worst games imaginable (in between two much higher caliber games) is a coincidence...
I'll put it another way, if you were forced to make your own bet, of say $100,000, on whether or not Macsed threw that map, and you bet he didn't, you're out of your mind.
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On March 21 2019 12:51 xelnaga_empire wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2019 01:31 hiro protagonist wrote:On March 21 2019 01:20 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 01:00 Xophy wrote:On March 21 2019 00:39 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 21 2019 00:06 Penev wrote:On March 20 2019 23:28 xelnaga_empire wrote:On March 20 2019 22:24 Geo.Rion wrote:
If i understand the betting site checked it out says it isnt fixing Yes. Also, Pinnacle did find suspicious betting for a CSGO match between 5POWER vs ENZO at WESG and did refund the betting for that match: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq9qkyDpz7M&feature=youtu.be&t=2917 So Pinnacle deemed the betting to be suspicious enough for CSGO at WESG to issue the refund, but concluded there was nothing suspicious about MacSed's match. It was pointed out several times that that doesn't say anything, here's an example: On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote:I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response. Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation. On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote:
same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime. In this case it's possible this bet was too low volume for the automatic system to trigger while the CSGO one wasn't, just to name one possibility. It has happened many times pinnacle didn't react to suspicious betting lines, them not catching this instance simply isn't proof of anything. We are running in circles again. WaxAngel e-mailed Pinnacle and they said they looked into it with their investigation department. Actually, you are not completely honest here. What they told to WaxAngel was "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match.". Now, nowhere do they say that they actually investigated anything or looked into it. The only thing they say is that they did not find anything suspicious which would also be true if they did not investigate anything at all but rather trusted their algorithms! Edit: Fixed for typo See, we are wasting time trying to figure out how Pinnacle operates internally and what they did or didn't do as part of their investigation. Unless a Pinnacle employee comes out and tells us exactly what they did and didn't do for the MacSed case, Pinnacle is a black box to us. And if Pinnacle is a black box to us, then they found no fault with the MacSed match Your logic is flawed. Pinnacle being a “black box” is not evidence of no wrongdoing. Your entire argument based on this statement is not valid. What IS evidence of wrongdoing is the betting line. Unless you, or anyone else can give me a logical reason as to why the betting line changed for something other than match fixing, then I suggest we accept that we need a real investigation. What investigation? Who will do it? WESG is silent and they had a chance to look at it already. You think the Chinese police will investigate after Pinnacle said there was nothing out of the ordinary with the betting? Good luck because I can tell you, that will never happen. Because Pinnacle said there was no suspicious betting in MacSed's game, the chance that the Chinese police will investigate is zero. Now if WESG comes out and says there was suspicious actions by MacSed, and/or Pinnacle reverses their stance and says there was suspicious betting, then it may be possible for the Chinese authorities to investigate. Until then, I doubt there will be a real investigation. But hey, you are free to fly to China to investigate. You can let the SC2 community know the result of your investigation after you fly to China. Good luck to you if you do!
Pinnacle is based in the Netherlands. They have Laws there that protect gamblers. Match fixing breaks those Laws. Law enforcement there should investigate.
On the SC2 side of things, Blizzard is the only relevant organization for an investigation. It’s in there best interest to root out anything that takes away from the integrity of the game. They should look into how the tournament was run, see if there’s any discrepancies, ask questions. You know, just some basic investigation stuff. They recently had to do this with Hearthstone with win trading aligations (and only after some strong public pressure I might add). They came to the conclusion that it happened, and responded accordingly.
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