On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing.
Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is.
I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome.
Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money.
Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive.
It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
Late to the party, but thanks, this makes sense that the changed odds should attract people to balance the situation!
On March 19 2019 19:49 mierin wrote: "My kid disappeared, I think he might be hurt!"
Detective deacon.frost: "No body, no investigation."
Investigations were done. One by Pinnacle. I assume WESG also already looked into it. And neither Pinnacle nor WESG provided evidence that furthered the OP's point.
One thing I would like to note is that the OP didn't even update his/her post to note that Pinnacle found no wrong doing. The OP clearly knew that Pinnacle came out with their findings but the OP so far has refused to update the original post to note this result from Pinnacle. I don't know about you, but I have to question why the OP refuses to update the original post to note the new findings from Pinnacle. It definitely lowers the integrity of the OP's post.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
On March 19 2019 17:36 Charoisaur wrote: "Innocent until guilty" is cute at all but if there is apparently no interest to start an investigation from the officials should we really live by that? Someone on a previous page posted an example of a murder being commited and someone being investigated who owns the gun which was used, was near the place where at happened and left a threat call the day before. If we'd live in a society where the officials for some reason don't care about murder should we treat him as innocent because of "inconclusive evidence"?
I'm sorry but Pinnacle not finding any wrong doing with MacSed's match while Pinnacle did find suspicion with the CSGO match in WESG and refunded the CSGO match says a lot about MacSed's match vs the CSGO match.
While originally, the OP had a case for further examination, but since then, there has been no further evidence to support the OP's case, and in fact, the evidence since the original post is not showing any wrong doing (statement from Pinnacle and no action by WESG), this is looking more and more like defamation against MacSed.
I don't want to defame him at all I don't have anything against him and I certainly don't want to just start drama. I watched Beastyqts analysis (who certainly doesn't want to just start drama either) and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement). Add to that that both things happened in the same match and MacSeds dubious statements and it's really not looking good for him. Saying innocent until proven guilty doesn't really apply imo when the evidence is this overwhelmingly against you. Sorry but Pinnacle and WESG not doing anything seems to me more like a case of them not caring about it than them thinking Macsed is innocent.
Why do people ignore the posts from early pages? The self-proclaimed referee stated WESG started investigation, Pinnacle state it was fine. Either say directly the person isn't a referee from WESG otherwise accept that they did investigation, Pinnacle did investigation.
On March 13 2019 14:49 Waxangel wrote: I emailed Pinnacle regarding the bet, and I was told "Please be advised that as per investigation department, we did not find anything suspicious on the said match." in response.
Given that there have been past suspicious line-movements that warranted cancellation from Pinnacle, and others that were allowed to stand, I can't say it sheds much more light on the situation.
On March 13 2019 14:40 Popkiller wrote: same thing every time, I have trouble understanding why people discard the betting patterns... do they really think one guy bet thousands of dollars on a long shot and happened to get lucky?
I think many people accept betting lines as circumstantial evidence, but it's a tough boundary to cross in terms of calling it CONCLUSIVE evidence. You can't say it's just because of lack of knowledge regarding how gambling works—fans would be justified in wanting the highest threshold of proof in what is effectively StarCraft esports' only capital crime.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
Doesn't change anything - them saying there's nothing suspicious doesn't mean there isn't. In the OP are screenshots which prove (unless you think they're photo-shopped) that someone bet a huge sum of money on Seventy91 to win the map. This is suspicious (I can't say to which extent, but the OP and other knowledgable posters say this is really uncommon and I don't know why they'd be lying) As I said there are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bet despite them being suspicious.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
Doesn't change anything - them saying there's nothing suspicious doesn't mean there isn't. In the OP are screenshots which prove (unless you think they're photo-shopped) that someone bet a huge sum of money on Seventy91 to win the map. This is suspicious (I can't say to which extent, but the OP and other knowledgable posters say this is really uncommon and I don't know why they'd be lying) As I said there are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bet despite them being suspicious.
But then what do you accept? The betting company said - as per our investigation it's fine. And you say - I don't trust them. And instead you trust random internet person.
You don;t know how huge the money sum was. You're expecting it to be huge. At the same time the algorithm may have overreacted because of volatility of the game and players who are unknown(Seventy91). Do you know the algorithm? I doubt that anyone here can share even if they know. It could have been quite low amount because we don't know aanything I just mentioned. Pinnacle DOES know. But in the end you selected to trust someone else, fine. But then tell me - what kind of evidence do you require? Because this is getting into the conspiracy theories shit. Yeah, the goverment says X, but I can't trust them as. Yeah, the scientists say X too, but I can't trust them either...
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
No, that information is not in the OP! After Pinnacle found there was no wrong doing, the OP did not update that in the first post for this thread!
This is why I am questioning the integrity of the OP. The OP seems to be very biased and refuses to update new information as it comes out, for example, the information from Pinnacle.
On March 19 2019 20:03 Charoisaur wrote: and according to the "betting experts" in this thread the betting patterns are already extremely suspicious on their own (regardless Pinnacle's statement).
Yes, let's take these "betting expert's" opinions over Pinnacle's opinion, given that Pinnacle has data that we don't, given that Pinnacle knows better than these "betting experts" on whether somebody is match fixing on their website or not.
ROFL.
This is what this thread has turned into. And I am really sad TL and its administrators haven't set the record straight, given the additional facts that have come out since this post from the OP.
The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
I edited my post few minutes ago, check the Waxangel quote, please, and read at least the red part.
Doesn't change anything - them saying there's nothing suspicious doesn't mean there isn't. In the OP are screenshots which prove (unless you think they're photo-shopped) that someone bet a huge sum of money on Seventy91 to win the map. This is suspicious (I can't say to which extent, but the OP and other knowledgable posters say this is really uncommon and I don't know why they'd be lying) As I said there are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bet despite them being suspicious.
But then what do you accept? The betting company said - as per our investigation it's fine. And you say - I don't trust them. And instead you trust random internet person.
You don;t know how huge the money sum was. You're expecting it to be huge. At the same time the algorithm may have overreacted because of volatility of the game and players who are unknown(Seventy91). Do you know the algorithm? I doubt that anyone here can share even if they know. It could have been quite low amount because we don't know aanything I just mentioned. Pinnacle DOES know. But in the end you selected to trust someone else, fine. But then tell me - what kind of evidence do you require? Because this is getting into the conspiracy theories shit. Yeah, the goverment says X, but I can't trust them as. Yeah, the scientists say X too, but I can't trust them either...
Well, treating him as a matchfixer with the evidence we have is certainly wrong I give you that. All I meant to say is that it still looks extremely fishy to me regardless of what Pinnacle says. And I don't trust the OP over Pinnacle - I just think that we also shouldn't take Pinnacle's statement as the "well, nothing suspicious here, case closed" statement. If nothing more comes from this then well, there's nothing we can do about it, I just hope there will be a more thorough investigation.
On March 19 2019 20:16 Charoisaur wrote: The information is literally in the OP and I don't know why you act like Pinnacle not voiding the bet is conclusive evidence that there's nothing suspicious. There are a lot of reasons why they wouldn't want to void the bets despite them being suspicious.
Because it severely weakens the OP's case, given that Pinnacle did find there was something suspicious with CSGO and refunded all bets for the CSGO match.
It says that Pinnacle didn't find evidence for MacSed's match that they decided there was no reason to refund the bets.
We can compare apples to apples in this case, since both matches happened at WESG:
1. Pinnacle refunds CSGO match for 5POWER vs ENZO and issues a statement that there was suspicious activity.
2. Pinnacle does not refund the bets for MacSed's match and says nothing was suspicious about that match.
This evidence in itself is damning to the OP's theory and crusade. It does not clear MacSed, but it sure cuts the legs under a lot of the OP's theory. In addition, WESG not finding anything suspicious also cuts the OP's theory.
If new evidence comes out that supports the OP, then the OP's theory may have more standing. Until that new evidence comes out, the evidence we have after the OP's post is not helping the OP's case.
On March 19 2019 09:44 hiro protagonist wrote: my question from earlier has yet to be awnserd yet:
Did anyone bet on 7091 to win a map against anyone other than macsed?
I wrote about that in the OP. The answer is no, none of the other lines had moved in that direction.
OK, so then, here is a question for everyone:
Can anyone give me a good reason why anyone would make such a large bet on such a longshot that doesn't involve matchfixing? Keep in mind, the bet was so large that the odds became 1:1, so you cant argue for "large risk, large reward" in this scenario.
My follow-up question to any that can answer for the above: Does this take into logical account the fact that no one bet for 7091 in any other match?
it's been mentioned. I don't know why, but for many people in this thread the betting just doesn't matter. Maybe it's because they don't get it, but it doesn't seem to register with them. It's bizarre to watch, honestly.
Yeah it's mentioned by several people including the OP (and me). It's weird to see how quickly people dismiss evidence they don't understand and even weirder that they don't try to understand. You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
And NOW you go look at the actual match (which I find of less importance even though it's really damaging).
What a lot of people seem to have trouble with is not recognizing that these 3 separate unlikelihoods are even more unlikely together, that's how probability works.
It's clearly enough for an investigation, a proper investigation and we can only hope that that is being conducted.
I also understand why someone doesn't like, gets sick from certain posts made in this thread but you can't just use those as a straw man and generalize everyone you don't agree with to that level. I don't wish any harm on anyone but I don't want to look away when something this obvious (to me) happens either.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
To you maybe, not to me. Apart from certain, indeed despicable, posts.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
every one of your arguments is a total non-argument. "the officials have more information than us" ok, so officials always act properly and never make mistakes? there's no point in ever challenging official narratives? whatever the officials say is what you believe regardless of cirucmstances and common sense? boy, a lot of governments would love you!
the fact that you even dared to say "defamation" is pretty damning on your end, either you don't understand in a legal sense what defamation is or more likely this is all just devil's advocacy from someone who simply doesn't care about the issue
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
every one of your arguments is a total non-argument. "the officials have more information than us" ok, so officials always act properly and never make mistakes? there's no point in ever challenging official narratives? whatever the officials say is what you believe regardless of cirucmstances and common sense? boy, a lot of governments would love you!
Yes, because of bunch of "betting experts" know more than Pinnacle, LOL. This is a really sad state of this thread.
Pinnacle is the de facto "betting expert" in this case. And if there was suspicious betting, Pinnacle would have voided and refunded the bets, which they did in the case of CSGO.
This is why the OP's theory is so questionable right now. Pinnacle obviously thought MacSed's match either didn't have any evidence, or didn't have enough evidence, to warrant a refund of the bets. But Pinnacle did think there was enough suspicious activity that they refunded the CSGO bets.
On March 19 2019 21:26 Penev wrote: You don't have to be a betting expert to understand why all this is so suspicious apart from how the actual match looked:
A very low level player manages to qualify for a big tournament and ends up in a group with 5 far superior opponents. Significant bets are placed on one of these matches for the very unlikely outcome of losing 2-1 instead of the expected 2-0, so taking 1 map. It's already suspicious on its own to see a significant linemovement like this (the amount of money/ people betting on such an unlikely outcome) but on top of that on none of the other matches of this low level player we see these same movements. Only the one that actually has the unlikely 2-1 scenario happen has this in itself suspicious betting line movement.
Except that Pinnacle has data that we don't, and Pinnacle has looked into this case. And Pinnacle said there was nothing suspicious about this match and that they won't offer refunds.
And the same Pinnacle did find suspicious betting around the CSGO match and they offered the refund in the CSGO match.
On top of this, WESG has presumably looked into this match and they did not find anything suspicious either.
So until more evidence is presented that supports the OP's case, this is looking more and more like defamation, for each day that passes.
every one of your arguments is a total non-argument. "the officials have more information than us" ok, so officials always act properly and never make mistakes? there's no point in ever challenging official narratives? whatever the officials say is what you believe regardless of cirucmstances and common sense? boy, a lot of governments would love you!
Yes, because of bunch of "betting experts" know more than Pinnacle, LOL. This is a really sad state of this thread.
Pinnacle is the de facto "betting expert" in this case. And if there was suspicious betting, Pinnacle would have voided and refunded the bets, which they did in the case of CSGO.
This is why the OP's theory is so questionable right now. Pinnacle obviously thought MacSed's match either didn't have any evidence, or didn't have enough evidence, to warrant a refund of the bets. But Pinnacle did think there was enough suspicious activity that they refunded the CSGO bets.
I really recommend you to just learn about betting lines etc yourself instead of just blindly trusting a site like pinnacle. It's entirely possible for algorithms to fuck up or employees acting differently on alarms that went of. I did so myself a few years ago (learn about this shit) when all the proleague matchfixing happened and read a lot of articles about the subject since. (Illegal) betting is huge and matchfixing in all kinds of sports is sadly very common and it has been getting worse. You'll find that what we have witnessed here is a pretty clear cut case. To conduct a serious investigation, not to condemn someone ofc.
I think he did it but I hope he didn't. But even if he did, I don't know the circumstances. And even if I did and it wouldn't help his case, I still won't think he's the worst person in the world. I reserve my stronger emotions for serious violent crimes.
But I will point out what I make of all of this and cases like it. This is a public forum designed for people to talk and have discussions after all, including about this particular case. As long as TL wants it to be anyway.
On March 19 2019 16:42 xelnaga_empire wrote: Okay, this is getting out of hand and the TL administrators need to put out a statement that there is inconclusive evidence of match fixing and unless there is new evidence to further prove the OP's case, this topic needs to end and MacSed deserves the right to be presumed innocent. The TL administrators also need to say that Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing in the betting for this match.
First of all, most of us live in a society where you are presumed innocent until proven guilty. And in a court of law, you must prove beyond a reasonable doubt in order for a conviction to pass. While there are a lot of question marks in this case, there is also a lot of doubt about the OP's premise:
1. Pinnacle did not find any wrong doing or suspicion in the betting for this match. However, at WESG, Pinnacle did find suspicion for a CSGO match for 5POWER vs ENZO and did refund the betting for that match: . If the evidence for match fixing was conclusive, Pinnacle would have offered a refund, but they did not. Pinnacle merely stated that they did not find anything out of the ordinary for this match. This tells us the evidence for the CSGO match was beyond what it was for MacSed's match.
2. The replays have been released and WESG has had a chance to look into this. Don't forget that there were foreign referees and foreign staff working at WESG too. So far, WESG has not found any evidence of wrong doing by MacSed.
3. Rotti does a nice breakdown of the match: . If you follow Rotti's logic, and Rotti lays out the case very well, it is not conclusive that MacSed lost the game purposefully. In fact, if you listen to Rotti's logic, he explains how a 6K MMR player like MacSed can lose to a 4K MMR player (and Rotti is 6K himself as Protoss).
4. Finally, so many people question how a 6K player can make such basic noob mistakes. And yet we have Maru playing over $10,000 USD, making a noob mistake in his match against Scarlett. And Maru acknowledged after that he didn't think that he could draw against Scarlett, even though it was so obvious to everyone that watched his match. Yes, even a pro player who has been playing the game for 9 years, who is in contention for one of the best players of all time in SC2, who won 3 GSLs in a row, will make a noob mistake.
This is not a "beyond a reasonable doubt" case (if it were, you wouldn't have somebody like Rotti saying what he did) and at this point, since the OP's posting, there is actual doubt about the OP's case. TL admins, kindly note that if there is doubt about this case, by allowing this thread to persist and by not making an announcement about the other facts of the case, this is nothing more than defamation of MacSed. I hope that TL and the administrators act responsibly at some point because it's unfair to defame somebody in this way, especially when the evidence is inconclusive and there is doubt about the OP's case.
With all due respect to Rotti, but I think his breakdown appears not as neutral as he claims it to be and in some cases even lacks some logic. For example, he criticizes people for saying "a 6k player should not lose that ..." because they are not 6k players themselves and thus cannot judge about MacSed's play. Well, that is not entirely true: If you are a, say, 5k player (which is not too unreasonable) and you yourself will not lose to this shit, then it is reasonable to assume that a 6k player does also not lose in this situation. Second, his explanation for stealing both of sevent91's gases? "MacSed also sees that Seventy91 has one gate and a pylon, no gases, so MacSed steals both gases which is normally a sick play cause it means you cannot lose against voidrays, oracles, four gate because you cannot research warpgate ... .. Well, in order to lose against voidrays, oracles or four gate (with warpgate researched), there should be a cybercore and at least already one gas taken. Otherwise, none of those builds would work at all which even a 4k player like Seventy91 knows. Then, Rotti says "Normally, the only play Seventy91 could make is build a Nexus somewhere on the map and then recall his probes; that is a thing that does happen, but then his attack is so far delayed that MacSed can tech up at home ...". Now, this basically assumes that this was Seventy91's plan in the first place, which does not make any sense at all. So, Rotti goes on: "... unless you are talking about a weird and unique scenario ..." Well, seeing a one gate, one pylon toss with no gases is more or less the definition of a weird and unique scenario? "... where there are there are three gateways for no reason at all on the other side of the map." Ok, now tell me, which "reasonable" builds are left after you scout one gate, pylon, no gases and no natural/attempt to build natural? It is either a) a hidden Nexus somewhere on the map or b) some proxy-gate shenanigans. You decide for yourself which is more reasonable. Rotti then continues by asking how MacSed should know that there are 3 gateways on the map because "... this is not an opening.". Yeah, but it is still the most likely scenario. He then goes on to expain that MacSed might have relaxed after seeing one gate, no gases because he "roflstomped" Seventy91 in the first game. Still even a 4k player will not fuck up his build - whatever it is - that badly. So, I will not continue to comment the rest of the video and I am not saying that MacSed has definitely been match-fixing (although I still think that it is absolutely the most likely scenario). What I want to say is that those explanations given by Rotterdam are very weak excuses which are much more unlikely than the game being lossed on purpose.
Obviously Pinnacle isn't going to void any bet whose outcome was unexpected/different from the most probable outcome. There would be no point in the whole notion of betting otherwise. If match-fixers organize their shit well, I doubt you would distinguish them from regular crazy bets risky users might place (with limited volume), or even bets placed at the last minute that used some sort of inside information (like someone saw MacSed drunk at the venue just before this particular round and decided he could very well drop a game to an inferior player that day).
All of this to say: I doubt Pinnacle could catch every type of match-fixing just looking at betting patterns. I think in this present situation the combination of the betting patterns AND the actual game is what's interesting. I agree that the opinion of "betting experts" here is not worth shit against what Pinnacle ends up concluding.
Edit: Also I listened to RotterdaM's take on the situation, and I respect his opinion a lot. I also think you cannot ban a guy just based what we have. But my mind is still 90% made up :D.
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true.
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai
This is incorrect. A reputable betting site would never, and I stress, never, void bets because it lost money. That would be extremely bad for the site. There would be tons of angry gamblers how would claim they got robbed out of money, because the site can't take losses. So I'm stressing, that is completely false. Only time they would ever void bets is because they want to protect customers.
When Pinnacle voided the bets during 2015 match fixing scandal (you can read about it here: 2015 Match-Fixing Scandal), the games hadn't begun yet or winnings paid out. The threshold for voiding bets is much lower, because nobody loses money, the bets are just cancelled.
Here the automatic triggers didn't happen in Pinnacle (I have good guesses why not, but would rather not disclose them, since it gives more info how to successfully bypass them). So the winnings had already been paid out, by the time anyone even messaged them. Nobody at Pinnacle is going to look at the match, they operate on their own systems. It is highly unlikely that they would do manual review at this point.
Also multiple posters that know the betting scene has commented that according to Pinnacles answer it does not say that they have actually "investigated" anything at all. All they did was message their investigation department that said they had nothing to say about this specific bet.
As several people have said before me, that does not mean that anyone has investigated anything at all. It only means the bet did not trip the sites autmoatic warning systems, other posters have already written about the many factors that these systems that analyze the betting lines have tons of factors that effect them. Automated systems are obviously not fail safe and there can be many reasons automatic warnings did not happen here. As far as we know no one has investigated this, not Pinnacle, not WESG and not the police.
The attempts to dismiss this situation as solved since it has been investigated are based on straight up false information.
As for the parellel drawn to Marus game are just sad, it shows an extreme lack of even the most basic of understanding of match fixing.
Macsed was 1-0 in the game where he might have matchfixed, if he were to win it would be 2-0 and then all the bettors would have lost and Macsed would (if guilty) be in deep shit with people you don't want to be in deep shit with. If Macsed matchfixed it is likely he tried to lose the first game smoothly but since his opponent was diamond he couldn't help but win it. Therefore the second game with his back to the wall he had to lose and therefore he made it this blatant.
How does this logic work for Maru, what bet was on the line here? Maru obviously tried to win the game through his playing the game, there is no way he tried to lose the first game on purpose and even if Rotti wants to argue the opposite. Maru obviously tried to win and did win, not to mention there is actually a lot of money on the line here. In macseds match there was no money on the line, there are here. There is no suspicious betting line and there are nothing else suspicious besides that one action that he GGed. In Macseds situation there just happens to be 30 suspicions things at the same time, the opponent in diamond, the betting line moved weirdly and his comment just makes things worse. Also according to the WESG rules book (as was pointed out to me on youtube sc2hl video of the game) in case of a tie the judge will count units. Maru would lose either way, there was no way to tie to the game. Marus suspicion level 0, Macseds suspicion level 99.7.
Nothing is investigated and nothing is proven but the circumstantial evidence are very convincing.
Edit: As a closing comment, as others also have pointed out. Pinnacle is a private company, they like to make money. There is acutally a possibility that the betting line in question made Pinnacle money, based on how many as the OP saw the line and Macsed vs diamond player and betting against the fixers. There is the possiblity that one betting line would leave Pinnacle losing money (therefore voided) while this betting line actually earned them money (therefore not voided). I actually doesn't think this is the case I just feel the argument that Pinnacles "empty" statement is proof that Macsed is innocent utter bull that is easily dismissed.
EPT
2015 Match-Fixing Scandal),
