Zergs are becoming an endangered species in Korea, and the last survivors are being hunted down one by one. This season has truly not been kind to the swarm: None of the zerg representatives from the first half of the Ro.32 manged to progress, and the odds are not exactly getting more favourable as time goes on. In Group F, Jin Air’s Sexy Boy Zerg will have to use all of his charm and brains to escape a similar fate, as he’s being chased by three dangerous terran opponents. Can Rogue trick himself out of this one, or will he be eliminated like the rest of his zerg colleagues?
His recent ZvT games suggest that he’ll face some serious troubles along the way. Any other match-up wouldn’t be a problem since Rogue has played some excellent ZvP and ZvZ in recent weeks, but there’s something about ZvT that Rogue seems to find hard (E/N: As indeed, do most other zergs in KR). His last game against a terran—a duel against Bunny in the SPL Round 3 Playoffs—shows that this weakness might be a lack of judgment when it comes to splitting his army.
Rogue opened with ling / roach / ravager pressure, killing off 20 of Bunny’s SCVs and gaining the economic advantage early on. The CJ player countered with some marine/medivac attacks, only ever on two fronts at the same time. Rogue had some real issues with these two-pronged attacks: He was never able to judge correctly how many units he would need to defend one location while also holding the other one, resulting in costly losses against small bio forces—he even missed a cancel on his fourth base, losing 300 minerals. His speedling counters were mostly ineffective as well, so overall his playstyle was too cost-inefficient. Without mutalisks splitting up the ground forces in the right manner is essential to defend, and Rogue definitely showed some weakness here.
Counting his games from June and July Rogue is 1-3 in series against terran, 2-5 in maps. He lost to aLive (whom he faces first in this group), ByuN and Bunny, winning only against jjakji. Rogue’s a surprising player by nature. He designs and executes clever builds in opportune moments and is such an important asset for his team in Proleague. But he needs to recreate this greatness for his own sake now, in a match-up, which lacks innovation and freshness from the zerg side at the moment. Maybe it’s time for Rogue to show his fellow zergs how it’s done—trying it the standard way clearly doesn’t work.
For the zerg players, that is. A terran such as aLive—long held in high regard as the textbook player of terran and the paragon of standard play—is faring quite well with regular macro styles. The Afreeca terran has been on a roll in the last months, getting some very impressive results in the SSL Challenge and in Proleague. Just last week though the hype train has somewhat slowed down; elimination from the SSL and a loss in the SPL Round 3 Playoffs, as well as some lost TvT series in Leifeng Cup, have stripped much of the momentum behind aLive for now. While his TvZ still sports some ridiculously good stats—the last series he lost offline was last Code S season, back in March—his mirror match-up has taken a hit. Most importantly, Ryung seems to have aLive’s number and has defeated him several times in the last weeks. So even though he should be favoured against the lone zerg of the group, the TvTs he certainly will have to play are going to be challenging.
Speaking of Ryung, the MVP player had very solid results in both TvZ and TvT lately. While his TvZ stats are surely inflated by the amount of online cups he plays, the TvT stats from both online and offline games are quite telling. And the story they tell is that the former mirror match expert is regaining some of that status. With wins over players such as GuMiho and aLive, Ryung does not need to hide himself from anyone in this group. His oftentimes unpredictable aggression, paired with his huge amount of experience, is a deadly combination indeed—as aLive well knows by now. With TvT being in a steady flux at the moment, such a flexible approach to the match-up is very beneficial. We’ve seen bio/tank drop play, we’ve seen mass hellion, cyclone and banshee openers, mass reaper cheeses and many other things in the last weeks. On-the-fly improvisation will be a critical skill in this group. And Ryung has proven to be a crafty player when it comes to that.
The last of Rogue’s pursuers is Dream, who has not seen a huge amount of action in the last weeks. In fact, his last TvZ is actually a lost Bo3 against Rogue from two months ago, making us practically blind to his current form in that particular match-up. His TvT on the other hand has been proven to be quite solid recently: His last two SPL wins come from games against Bomber and Forte. In the latter game Dream defended against a crazy mass cyclone build by his opponent, showing that he’s prepared for anything his opponents might throw at him. Traditionally the mirror match-up hasn’t been his strongest feat (the historical stats still are in the negative), but for the moment the SKT players’ TvT should be strong enough to compete against the others in the group. Mechanically he’s probably the best in the group.
Predictions
This is a hard group to predict: Rogue’s ZvT doesn’t give much hope to his fans at the moment, aLive’s momentum was shut down hard in the last days, Ryung isn’t a very stable player and could easily make critical mistakes and Dream hasn’t played much at all, limiting our knowledge of his current abilities. He’s a better player than Ryung, while aLive’s TvZ should carry him against Rogue, which should give us a TvT between Dream and aLive to decide the first place. Ryung’s TvZ on paper is better than Rogue’s, but there are a lot of online games to inflate the MVP players’ stats, so Rogue should survive to the last game. Will he beat aLive in a rematch, or will he beat Dream? The latter is more improbable, the first might happen. Might.
On July 22 2016 03:04 Elentos wrote: I'm pretty excited about this group honestly. Mostly because of Dream.
I love Dream, but it's difficult to judge his TvT given how little we've seen. If it's anything better than it was in S1 then I think he's got a decent chance. Losing 0-3 to TY was pretty harsh, I thought he played really well G1 and then got a couple early game losses in G2/3.
On July 22 2016 03:04 Elentos wrote: I'm pretty excited about this group honestly. Mostly because of Dream.
I love Dream, but it's difficult to judge his TvT given how little we've seen. If it's anything better than it was in S1 then I think he's got a decent chance. Losing 0-3 to TY was pretty harsh, I thought he played really well G1 and then got a couple early game losses in G2/3.
Honestly I just hope aLive doesn't advance. He looks like his form has fallen off again, his TvT and TvP have not been impressive at all lately, (like in season 1 right around the time of his Code S group, actually) and I think he would get bopped by too many players in the Ro16.
On July 22 2016 03:04 Elentos wrote: I'm pretty excited about this group honestly. Mostly because of Dream.
I love Dream, but it's difficult to judge his TvT given how little we've seen. If it's anything better than it was in S1 then I think he's got a decent chance. Losing 0-3 to TY was pretty harsh, I thought he played really well G1 and then got a couple early game losses in G2/3.
On July 22 2016 03:04 Elentos wrote: I'm pretty excited about this group honestly. Mostly because of Dream.
Me too. I want him to go out 0-4 so badly!
Geez why do you hate him so much?
On July 22 2016 03:09 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
On July 22 2016 03:04 Elentos wrote: I'm pretty excited about this group honestly. Mostly because of Dream.
I love Dream, but it's difficult to judge his TvT given how little we've seen. If it's anything better than it was in S1 then I think he's got a decent chance. Losing 0-3 to TY was pretty harsh, I thought he played really well G1 and then got a couple early game losses in G2/3.
I also think Dream is the Terran most likely to throw in some mech for his TvT in this group.
People hated it because most mech in late 2015 was awful to watch, but Dream vs Maru in Proleague Finals was a great game
I thought mech in TvT was still very nice to watch, although I was not a fan of the fact that nearly every TvT became mech vs mech with very few players still preferring bio in TvT at the very end (Maru and TY mostly). But yeah that game especially was sick.
I hope Dream brings a little bit of that tomorrow, I'm not expecting it from aLive and Ryung.
Alive is textbook yes!! Rogue is a definite surprise and Dream is a mystery.. Ryung is really really good
my predictions have been far from correct as I predicted Gumiho and Dear to advance in the SSL Group.. But I have even a stronger feeling that Ryung cannot possibly go out in this group... I Go for Ryung to definitely get out...
But lately I seem to be cursing these guys ... RIP Gumiho... you were so good today when you were YOU !!
On July 22 2016 04:41 Cricketer12 wrote: Ryung in 4th is possibly TL's worst prediction.
I had several versions, Ryung came out first in some of them. I actually thought about it a lot, but somehow this group was super hard for me. Ryung always disappoints.
yaeh in liquibets i didnt know who to pick so I went for rogue because I want some Zerg and Dream because I want KT to beat SKT in full streng in telecom derbys and not this shadow of last round
but hey with so few zerg Zest has a really really good shot at taking this gsl and the ssl with his phenomenal pvt and his always pvp on top pvz is his weakness in the moment but hey only pvt and pvp to play
On July 22 2016 07:00 zakadar wrote: but hey with so few zerg Zest has a really really good shot at taking this gsl and the ssl with his phenomenal pvt and his always pvp on top pvz is his weakness in the moment but hey only pvt and pvp to play
I'm a Dream fanboy so hoping for Dream and Rogue. If Ryung is in form, then I can see him advancing as well. aLive is definitely that darkhorse for me.
I hope Rogoue goes trought, because there are too few Zergs in RO16 yet. exactly zero. why does Zergs have such a hard time in Lotv? all bad players except Dark or bad balance?
On July 22 2016 16:24 kajtarp wrote: I hope Rogoue goes trought, because there are too few Zergs in RO16 yet. exactly zero. why does Zergs have such a hard time in Lotv? all bad players except Dark or bad balance?
I love all the whine/cry about "no zergs in ro16" - the patch only went live after the first group was already played - that means all of the code A games that set up who is in code S didn't have it. Guaranteed Rogue / Dark and Byul all make it in.
Where is the whine/cry for no Terrans in SSL ro8?? QQ QQ ;(( Patch pls
On July 22 2016 20:02 DomeGetta wrote: I love all the whine/cry about "no zergs in ro16" - the patch only went live after the first group was already played - that means all of the code A games that set up who is in code S didn't have it. Guaranteed Rogue / Dark and Byul all make it in.
Where is the whine/cry for no Terrans in SSL ro8?? QQ QQ ;(( Patch pls
i pretty much doubt Byul will make it. But i have still hopes for Dark.
On July 22 2016 04:41 Cricketer12 wrote: Ryung in 4th is possibly TL's worst prediction.
I had several versions, Ryung came out first in some of them. I actually thought about it a lot, but somehow this group was super hard for me. Ryung always disappoints.
On July 22 2016 20:02 DomeGetta wrote: I love all the whine/cry about "no zergs in ro16" - the patch only went live after the first group was already played - that means all of the code A games that set up who is in code S didn't have it. Guaranteed Rogue / Dark and Byul all make it in.
Where is the whine/cry for no Terrans in SSL ro8?? QQ QQ ;(( Patch pls
Considering there's a ro16 group with 3 terrans I wouldn't worry too much about that
On July 22 2016 20:02 DomeGetta wrote: I love all the whine/cry about "no zergs in ro16" - the patch only went live after the first group was already played - that means all of the code A games that set up who is in code S didn't have it. Guaranteed Rogue / Dark and Byul all make it in.
Where is the whine/cry for no Terrans in SSL ro8?? QQ QQ ;(( Patch pls
Considering there's a ro16 group with 3 terrans I wouldn't worry too much about that
yes yes good point - the pre-patch games that created the ro16 in SSL gtd at least one terran in ro8 = terran still OP
from the already advanced 12 players in Code S 7 are terrans, even if no more terrans advance 7 from 16 is almost 50% for only one race. terrans are just doing fine.
to whine because alive couldnt get out in a group with zest and dark in it and bomber hey is no match for dear and stats and dear vs gumiho is 50-50 no need to whine there
On July 23 2016 01:23 kajtarp wrote: from the already advanced 12 players in Code S 7 are terrans, even if no more terrans advance 7 from 16 is almost 50% for only one race. terrans are just doing fine.
Again with the conveniently left out assignable cause for the distribution of terrans in code S to begin with.
The entire 32 was placed in before the patch - you can't even look at the current season and try to make balance speculations based on % of players in ro16.
You can however analyze the games that have been played post patch.
Losira vs. Byun 2 maps to 2. - Byun is definitely a higher tier Terran than Losira is Zerg.
Maru vs. soO 2 maps to 1 Maru vs. Ragnarock 2 maps to 0 - Maru is the best Terran in the world (close with TY).
Maru won vs soO with a 2 base stim timing into 5 rax and holding off an all in. Maru won vs Ragnarock holding off a Nydus and again with his 2 base stim build.
Taeja vs. soO- 2 maps to 1 - SoO definitely higher tier than Taeja - Taeja copies Maru's build and wins 2 to 1.
Taeja vs Ragnarock - 2 maps to 3 - Taeja is higher tier than Ragnarock slightly imo and gets destroyed in first series - copies Maru's build in second series and wins (also Ragnarock a moves his army into cloaked ghosts with no overseers alive - that is a very obvious blunder in that game that if not made makes the %chance Taeja would have gotten out of the group very low.)
TY vs Impact 4 maps to 0 - 2nd best Terran in the world vs. Impact.
Rogue vs. Alive 2 maps to 1 Rogue vs. Dream 2 maps to 1 Rogue is higher tier than both of them - played new style that looks to counter the 2 base stim build that Maru made popular.
Overall 14 maps for T and 11 maps for Z
-4 of the T wins are TY vs Impact which would arguably be removed from the dataset (4) (but it's fine even to include) - 2 base stim timing wins for T: 2 for Maru 2 for Taeja 1 for Dream. (6) - 1 all in hold from Maru vs sOO (1) - 1 late game from Ragnarock vs Taeja. (1) (could arguably be removed - Max ultra/infestor army suicided)
- Missed how alive won on frozen temple but if I had to guess I'd say with a 2 base all in.
Would be willing to bet Byul 2-0's Speed making it 14-13 - but only 3 zergs in ro16 (assuming Dark/ 1 Toss advance).
And that's without the best Z in the world hitting a T.
Seems to me that the 2 base stim drop build is very strong and hard to hold - but that Rogue seemed to figure out how to stop it - looks to me like Z is going to be taking the favor going forward (when code A is played again for next season to even the distribution).
If anyone can link me to a vod of a top Korean vs Korean TvZ where the Terran wins from a late game scenario (hive tech maxed armies) where the zerg does not make a horrific blunder I'd love to watch - bc at high masters on NA it definitely seems imbalanced (that doesnt mean it is bc it's not the highest level of play)
If anyone can link me to a vod of a top Korean vs Korean TvZ where the Terran wins from a late game scenario (hive tech maxed armies) where the zerg does not make a horrific blunder I'd love to watch - bc at high masters on NA it definitely seems imbalanced (that doesnt mean it is bc it's not the highest level of play
the game always never gets to this stage in korea so it doesn't say much that this has never happened although I'm pretty sure that it is zerg favored because otherwise some terrans would be playing for the lategame. TaeJa won a few games with a 200/200 bio ghost push to kill the zerg before he gets broodlords but that isn't the last stage of lategame.
in foreignerland we have seen quite a few super-lategame tvzs and I think terran lost all of them.
On July 23 2016 09:22 DomeGetta wrote: Seems to me that the 2 base stim drop build is very strong and hard to hold - but that Rogue seemed to figure out how to stop it - looks to me like Z is going to be taking the favor going forward (when code A is played again for next season to even the distribution).
A lot of the TvZ's in the Maru/TaeJa group went long enough for the Zerg to get hive tech, attributing all those wins just to the drop build seems like a very shallow analysis. TvZ is 16-11 in Code S after the patch, not 14-11. And 2+2+1 is not 6.
And no, aLive did not 2-base all-in on Frozen Temple.
On July 23 2016 09:22 DomeGetta wrote: Seems to me that the 2 base stim drop build is very strong and hard to hold - but that Rogue seemed to figure out how to stop it - looks to me like Z is going to be taking the favor going forward (when code A is played again for next season to even the distribution).
A lot of the TvZ's in the Maru/TaeJa group went long enough for the Zerg to get hive tech, attributing all those wins just to the drop build seems like a very shallow analysis. TvZ is 16-11 in Code S after the patch, not 14-11. And 2+2+1 is not 6.
And no, aLive did not 2-base all-in on Frozen Temple.
Thanks for catching my typo. You didn't elaborate on his win though - did the zerg get to a maxed hive tech army? I would very much doubt it.
All you've said is "a lot of Tvz's went long enough to get to hive tech" which wasn't the point - the point was to site a game where zerg got to hive tech on a sufficient economy to support sustaining a hive tech army and then lost the game without throwing away their entire army. I won't hold my breath.
16-11 - so if Byul 2-0's speed its 16-13 - with literally 1 example of a game that went max vs max late game that a Terran won (where the zerg did, in fact, throw away their army) - Broken Game?
I would say we are on our way a lot closer to seeing a broken game but not in the perspective of the zerg - give me back wol no micro necessary - whine way.
Let's see how it plays out! Thanks again tho for the edit.
If zergs got shut out of Ro16 for a whole year, Blizzard would say "looks like maybe we should consider a minor buff to zerg some decade in the future". Ignoring the gaping problems that everyone knows are there won't make them go away, Blizzard. Pretending that insignificant minor changes are all that is necessary doesn't fool anyone. LOTV buffed the harass options MOSTLY for Terran and Protoss. Zerg nydus play that relies on the invincibility of the nydus in any early part of the game is still an all in. So where are you Blizzard on treating liberators and widow mines like swarmhosts and nerfing them out of the game? no? course not, that would be FAIR. make widow mines have a 1 minute cooldown and make liberators take double the time to switch modes. those kinds of changes, are far less than what was done to swarmhosts but Blizzard will NEVER do things like this to Terran, only to Zerg. this is why I stopped playing LOTV.