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WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 38

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
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sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
August 28 2015 20:28 GMT
#741
Snute and Marinelord should be giving me some extra points with their easy groups no?
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
August 28 2015 20:56 GMT
#742
On August 29 2015 05:28 sharkie wrote:
Snute and Marinelord should be giving me some extra points with their easy groups no?

You can see that their mean points went up because of their easier groups, but they weren't easy enough to bump their median points up a whole notch
"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
August 28 2015 20:59 GMT
#743
damn it!
At least I somehow ended up #1 after my vacation ^^
Byul>Innovation changed the points so much
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
August 29 2015 04:15 GMT
#744
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GSL Ro16 and WCS Ro16 Groups Drawn and Group of Death Analysis!
Saturday, Aug 29 4:15am GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4024)


Biggest Winners and Losers since Friday, Aug 21 2:34pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim ID #3701 vs Sim ID #4024)
Biggest Winners
kr sOs went up by 22.62%, going from 28.01% to 50.64%
kr Rogue went up by 10.56%, going from 85.36% to 95.92%
kr ForGG went up by 5.31%, going from 9.55% to 14.86%
no Snute went up by 3.07%, going from 5.39% to 8.46%
kr GuMiho went up by 3.02%, going from 3.62% to 6.64%
fr Lilbow went up by 0.96%, going from 11.98% to 12.94%
kr Dear went up by 0.82%, going from 5.1% to 5.91%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

kr Solar went up by 0.46%, going from 8.91% to 9.37%


Biggest Losers
kr soO went down by 11.51%, going from 11.71% to 0.2%
kr FanTaSy went down by 10.1%, going from 72.64% to 62.54%
kr MyuNgSiK went down by 8.61%, going from 8.77% to 0.16%
kr TY went down by 5.56%, going from 30.5% to 24.93%
kr Dark went down by 4.41%, going from 79.29% to 74.89%
kr Jaedong went down by 1.84%, going from 11.84% to 9.99%
de TLO went down by 1.23%, going from 1.23% to 0.01%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

fr MarineLorD went down by 1.01%, going from 5.46% to 4.46%
kr HyuN went down by 0.95%, going from 9.77% to 8.82%
kr Stats went down by 0.49%, going from 3.14% to 2.65%
kr Bbyong went down by 0.38%, going from 4.54% to 4.16%
nz Petraeus went down by 0.18%, going from 1.27% to 1.09%
kr Zest went down by 0.11%, going from 99.99% to 99.89%


+ Show Spoiler [Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances] +

  1. herO is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 6700, Median Points: 7300
  2. PartinG is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 5475, Median Points: 6150
  3. Life is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 5475, Median Points: 5475
  4. Maru is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 5450, Median Points: 5750
  5. Rain is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4925, Median Points: 5775
  6. Hydra is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4575, Median Points: 5300
  7. Dream is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4275, Median Points: 4275
  8. Classic is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4250, Median Points: 4550
  9. ByuL is at 99.99%, 99.99% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3675, Median Points: 4275
  10. Polt is at 99.99%, 99.99% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3575, Median Points: 4000
  11. INnoVation is at 99.98%, 99.64% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3375, Median Points: 4050
  12. Zest is at 99.89%, 99.59% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3375, Median Points: 3675
  13. Rogue is at 95.92%, 89.53% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3025, Median Points: 3275
  14. Dark is at 74.89%, 26.86% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2800, Median Points: 3100
  15. FanTaSy is at 62.54%, 57.04% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2900, Median Points: 2900
  16. sOs is at 50.64%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2400, Median Points: 2900
  17. TY is at 24.93%, 0.36% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2500, Median Points: 2625
  18. ForGG is at 14.86%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1825, Median Points: 2125
  19. Lilbow is at 12.94%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1925, Median Points: 2225
  20. Jaedong is at 9.99%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1525, Median Points: 2025
  21. Solar is at 9.37%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1350, Median Points: 1950
  22. HyuN is at 8.82%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2125, Median Points: 2500
  23. Snute is at 8.46%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1700, Median Points: 2000
  24. GuMiho is at 6.64%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1925, Median Points: 2050
  25. Dear is at 5.91%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1825, Median Points: 2125
  26. MarineLorD is at 4.46%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1275, Median Points: 1575
  27. Bbyong is at 4.16%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1550, Median Points: 1850
  28. Stats is at 2.65%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2350, Median Points: 2350
  29. Petraeus is at 1.09%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 825, Median Points: 1250
  30. viOLet is at 0.29%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 600, Median Points: 950
  31. MaNa is at 0.29%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 825, Median Points: 1125
  32. Flash is at 0.22%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 875, Median Points: 1000
  33. soO is at 0.2%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1850, Median Points: 1850
  34. Curious is at 0.2%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1950, Median Points: 1950
  35. Bunny is at 0.19%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2025, Median Points: 2025
  36. MyuNgSiK is at 0.16%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2000, Median Points: 2000
  37. iaguz is at 0.07%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 850, Median Points: 950
  38. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.06%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 700, Median Points: 800
  39. TRUE is at 0.05%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1650, Median Points: 1650
  40. Soulkey is at 0.04%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1725, Median Points: 1725
  41. Sen is at 0.03%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 775, Median Points: 875
  42. elfi is at 0.02%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 600, Median Points: 725
  43. Zanster is at 0.02%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 425, Median Points: 650
  44. Trap is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1350, Median Points: 1350
  45. MMA is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1475, Median Points: 1475
  46. TLO is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1550, Median Points: 1550
  47. Patience is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1375, Median Points: 1375
  48. Bomber is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1175, Median Points: 1225
  49. Hitman is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 300, Median Points: 400
  50. FireCake is at 0.01%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 975, Median Points: 1100
Full Player List


+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners from 25.85% up to 27.15%
Chances of 2+ foreigners from 0.44% up to 0.47%

Top Foreigner Hopes
fr Lilbow 12.53% chance to be the only foreigner, 12.94% chance overall.
no Snute 8.13% chance to be the only foreigner, 8.46% chance overall.
fr MarineLorD 4.31% chance to be the only foreigner, 4.46% chance overall.
nz Petraeus 1.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.09% chance overall.
pl MaNa 0.28% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.29% chance overall.
dk Bunny 0.17% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.19% chance overall.
au iaguz 0.07% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.07% chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] +

de GunGFuBanDa 0.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.06% chance overall.
tw Sen 0.03% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.03% chance overall.
fi elfi 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.
se Zanster 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.
de TLO 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
us Hitman 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
fr FireCake 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
nl Harstem 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
de ShoWTimE 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
tw Has 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
ca Kane 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.
ru Happy 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall.



+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

kr Rain is the current #1 Headband holder with 0 defenses!
kr ByuL is the current #2 Headband holder with 0 defenses!
kr Dark is the current #3 Headband holder with 4 defenses!
kr herO is the current #4 Headband holder with 3 defenses!

Defense History
kr herO defended the #4 from kr MyuNgSiK at StarLeague Season 3
kr Dark defended the #3 from kr sKyHigh at GSL Code S Season 3
kr Dark defended the #3 from kr MMA at GSL Code S Season 3
+ Show Spoiler [More Defense History] +

kr ByuL won the #2 from kr INnoVation at StarLeague Season 3
kr INnoVation defended the #2 from kr Curious at GSL Code S Season 3
kr INnoVation defended the #2 from kr Flash at GSL Code S Season 3
kr herO defended the #4 from kr Losira at GSL Code S Season 3
kr herO defended the #4 from kr Hack at GSL Code S Season 3
kr INnoVation won the #2 from kr soO at IEM Gamescom
kr soO defended the #2 from kr FanTaSy at IEM Gamescom
kr soO defended the #2 from de Lambo at IEM Gamescom
kr soO defended the #2 from kr MMA at IEM Gamescom
kr soO defended the #2 from de HeRoMaRinE at IEM Gamescom
kr herO won the #4 from kr Life at StarLeague Season 3
kr Life won the #4 from kr sOs at StarLeague Season 3
kr Dark defended the #3 from kr aLive at GSL Code A Season 3
kr soO defended the #2 from kr Dark at KeSPA Cup 2
kr Dark defended the #3 from kr Dream at KeSPA Cup 2
kr soO won the #2 from kr Flash at KeSPA Cup 2
kr Dark won the #3 from kr ByuL at KeSPA Cup 2
kr Flash won the #2 from kr Classic at KeSPA Cup 2
kr Classic defended the #2 from kr HerO at GSL Code A Season 3
kr ByuL defended the #3 from kr Pigbaby at KeSPA Cup 2
kr Classic defended the #2 from kr Rogue at KeSPA Cup 2
kr sOs defended the #4 from kr Solar at StarLeague Season 3
kr ByuL defended the #3 from kr Shine at StarLeague Season 3



+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

0.93% of the time 2625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
9.94% of the time 2800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
18.18% of the time 2875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
55.23% of the time 2900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
74.58% of the time 3025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
90.15% of the time 3200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
99.04% of the time 3450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon


+ Show Spoiler [Final Seed Stats] +

kr herO has a 82.86% chance to be the #1 seed.
kr PartinG has a 37.44% chance to be the #2 seed.
kr PartinG has a 33.36% chance to be the #3 seed.
kr Maru has a 29.09% chance to be the #4 seed.
kr Life has a 39.82% chance to be the #5 seed.
kr Hydra has a 24.82% chance to be the #6 seed.
kr Classic has a 21.95% chance to be the #7 seed.
kr Classic has a 29.56% chance to be the #8 seed.
kr Dream has a 36.25% chance to be the #9 seed.
kr Dream has a 28.18% chance to be the #10 seed.
kr Polt has a 25.62% chance to be the #11 seed.
kr Zest has a 25.36% chance to be the #12 seed.
kr Zest has a 24.06% chance to be the #13 seed.
kr Rogue has a 26.78% chance to be the #14 seed.
kr Rogue has a 23.42% chance to be the #15 seed.
kr FanTaSy has a 32.04% chance to be the #16 seed.


+ Show Spoiler [Final Match Stats] +

kr herO vs kr FanTaSy has a 29.92% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr Dream vs kr Classic has a 27.83% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr PartinG vs kr Rogue has a 21.83% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr Life vs kr Zest has a 19.78% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr Dark vs kr herO has a 17.98% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr Maru vs kr Zest has a 17.81% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr ByuL vs kr Dream has a 17.8% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr ByuL vs kr Classic has a 16.31% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr Maru vs kr Rogue has a 15.39% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.
kr Life vs kr INnoVation has a 15.02% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.


+ Show Spoiler [WCS Ro16 Groups] +

se Zanster, fr MarineLorD, fi elfi, and pl MaNa in
in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16.
MarineLorD must win this match!
Zanster is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.68% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose.
elfi is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.63% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose.
MarineLorD is at 4.46% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.58% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.02%, or 0.01% if they lose.
MaNa is at 0.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.11% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.51%, or 0.01% if they lose.

tw Sen, no Snute, nz Petraeus, and de GunGFuBanDa in
in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16.
Snute and Petraeus must win this match!
Sen is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.99% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.08%, or 0% if they lose.
Petraeus is at 1.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.08% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.85%, or 0.01% if they lose.
Snute is at 8.46% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.01% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.6%, or 0.06% if they lose.
GunGFuBanDa is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.92% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.14%, or 0.01% if they lose.

us Hitman, kr Hydra, kr Polt, and kr viOLet in
in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16.
Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 25.69% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose.
Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.42% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.76% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
viOLet is at 0.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.13% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.65%, or 0.01% if they lose.

kr ForGG, kr Jaedong, au iaguz, and fr Lilbow in
in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16.
ForGG, Jaedong, and Lilbow must win this match!
ForGG is at 14.86% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.34% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 22.3%, or 0.19% if they lose.
iaguz is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.51% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.24%, or 0% if they lose.
Jaedong is at 9.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.19% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 20.47%, or 0.25% if they lose.
Lilbow is at 12.94% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.95% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 22.53%, or 0.26% if they lose.


+ Show Spoiler [GSL Ro16 Groups] +

kr Rogue, kr Dear, kr Bbyong, and kr Rain in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
Dear and Bbyong must win this match!
Rain has the #1 Headband.
Rogue is at 95.92% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.41% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.32%, or 93.2% if they lose.
Bbyong is at 4.16% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.66% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.05%, or 0.04% if they lose.
Dear is at 5.91% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.13% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 11.63%, or 0.16% if they lose.
Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.8% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

kr Maru, kr sOs, kr Classic, and kr herO in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
herO has the #4 Headband.
Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.43% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.57% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
sOs is at 50.64% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.54% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 78.77%, or 27.11% if they lose.
herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.47% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

kr Solar, kr Zest, kr ByuL, and kr Dark in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
Solar must win this match!
ByuL has the #2 Headband.Dark has the #3 Headband.
Solar is at 9.37% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.08% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.81%, or 0.25% if they lose.
ByuL is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.87% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
Zest is at 99.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.17% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.78% if they lose.
Dark is at 74.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.88% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 96.34%, or 51.76% if they lose.

kr PartinG, kr GuMiho, kr INnoVation, and kr Flash in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
GuMiho must win this match!
PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.54% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
INnoVation is at 99.98% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.25% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.96% if they lose.
GuMiho is at 6.64% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.45% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 15.9%, or 0.34% if they lose.
Flash is at 0.22% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.77% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.54%, or 0.01% if they lose.


GSL Ro16 Group of Death
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the average Aligulac rating of the players in the group.

Champion Chances
D > C > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
Group A
Rogue has a 3.95% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Dear has a 4.18% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Bbyong has a 3.81% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Rain has a 8.95% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 20.8864

Group B
Maru has a 6.47% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
sOs has a 4.72% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Classic has a 8.06% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
herO has a 6.5% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 25.7499

Group C
Solar has a 7.61% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Zest has a 6.75% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
ByuL has a 4.7% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Dark has a 7.23% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 26.2846

Group D
Flash has a 2.91% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
INnoVation has a 13.2% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
GuMiho has a 3.8% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
PartinG has a 7.17% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 27.0792


Blizzcon Chances
B > C > D > A
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
Group A
Rogue has a 95.77% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Dear has a 5.89% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Bbyong has a 4.15% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Rain has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 205.808

Group B
Maru has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
sOs has a 50.45% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Classic has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
herO has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 350.449

Group C
Solar has a 9.34% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Zest has a 99.88% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
ByuL has a 99.99% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Dark has a 74.54% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 283.767

Group D
Flash has a 0.21% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
INnoVation has a 99.98% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
GuMiho has a 6.61% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
PartinG has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 206.811


Blizzcon Chances Lost
B > D > C > A
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
Group A
Rogue's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.08%
Dear's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.39%
Bbyong's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.1%
Rain's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.215268

Group B
Maru's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0%
sOs's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.68%
Classic's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0%
herO's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.682919

Group C
Solar's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.19%
Zest's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.02%
ByuL's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
Dark's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.15836

Group D
Flash's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.02%
INnoVation's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.01%
GuMiho's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.5%
PartinG's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.515591


Effects
C > B > A > D
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
Group A
When Rogue wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 3.52%
When Rogue loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 2.81%
When Dear wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 5.69%
When Dear loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 5.72%
When Bbyong wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 4.89%
When Bbyong loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 4.11%
When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0%
When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 26.7311

Group B
When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0%
When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0%
When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 28.1%
When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 23.51%
When Classic wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0%
When Classic loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0%
When herO wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0%
When herO loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 51.6081

Group C
When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 7.4%
When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 9.09%
When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.12%
When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.11%
When ByuL wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.01%
When ByuL loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.01%
When Dark wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 21.68%
When Dark loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 23.37%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 61.7762

Group D
When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.31%
When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.21%
When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.02%
When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.02%
When GuMiho wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 9.23%
When GuMiho loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 6.27%
When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0%
When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 16.0743


Aliglac Ratings
D > C > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +
Group A
Rogue has an Aligulac rating of 2126
Dear has an Aligulac rating of 2081
Bbyong has an Aligulac rating of 2143
Rain has an Aligulac rating of 2288
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8638

Group B
Maru has an Aligulac rating of 2273
sOs has an Aligulac rating of 2123
Classic has an Aligulac rating of 2229
herO has an Aligulac rating of 2210
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8835

Group C
Solar has an Aligulac rating of 2254
Zest has an Aligulac rating of 2190
ByuL has an Aligulac rating of 2149
Dark has an Aligulac rating of 2263
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8856

Group D
Flash has an Aligulac rating of 2072
INnoVation has an Aligulac rating of 2468
GuMiho has an Aligulac rating of 2152
PartinG has an Aligulac rating of 2221
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8913


Final Placings
Group A has one 3rd place, and four 4th places
Group B has two 1st places, one 2nd place, and two 3rd places
Group C has one 1st place, three 2nd places, and one 3rd place
Group D has two 1st places, one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place

Group B edges out Group D by having two 3rd places instead of a 3rd and a 4th place. Congrats to Maru, sOs, Classic, and herO for being the Group of Death! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with Flash, INnoVation, GuMiho, and PartinG.


WCS Ro16 Group of Death
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the average Aligulac rating of the players in the group.

Champion Chances
C > D > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
Group A
Zanster has a 3.37% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
MarineLorD has a 5.59% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
elfi has a 1.78% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
MaNa has a 5.37% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 16.1129

Group B
Sen has a 1.41% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Snute has a 7.34% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Petraeus has a 6.84% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
GunGFuBanDa has a 2.54% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 18.1266

Group C
Hitman has a 0.87% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Hydra has a 20.73% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Polt has a 10.23% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
viOLet has a 3.73% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 35.5568

Group D
ForGG has a 12.07% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Jaedong has a 7.78% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
iaguz has a 1.31% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Lilbow has a 9.05% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.2037


Blizzcon Chances
C > D > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
Group A
Zanster has a 0.02% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
MarineLorD has a 4.46% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
elfi has a 0.02% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
MaNa has a 0.29% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 4.78522

Group B
Sen has a 0.03% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Snute has a 8.46% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Petraeus has a 1.09% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
GunGFuBanDa has a 0.06% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 9.63772

Group C
Hitman has a 0.01% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Hydra has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Polt has a 99.99% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
viOLet has a 0.29% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 200.294

Group D
ForGG has a 14.86% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Jaedong has a 9.99% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
iaguz has a 0.07% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Lilbow has a 12.94% chance to qualify for Blizzcon
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 37.8643


Blizzcon Chances Lost
D > C > A > B
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
Group A
Zanster's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
MarineLorD's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.08%
elfi's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.01%
MaNa's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.02%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0949

Group B
Sen's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
Snute's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.82%
Petraeus's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.07%
GunGFuBanDa's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.885236

Group C
Hitman's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
Hydra's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0%
Polt's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.01%
viOLet's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.013224

Group D
ForGG's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.94%
Jaedong's Blizzcon Chances changed by -1.46%
iaguz's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.02%
Lilbow's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.21%
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.741152


Effects
D > B > A > C
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
Group A
When Zanster wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.02%
When Zanster loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.02%
When MarineLorD wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 3.56%
When MarineLorD loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 4.46%
When elfi wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.03%
When elfi loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.02%
When MaNa wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.22%
When MaNa loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.29%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 8.61053

Group B
When Sen wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.05%
When Sen loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.03%
When Snute wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 5.15%
When Snute loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 8.4%
When Petraeus wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.76%
When Petraeus loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 1.09%
When GunGFuBanDa wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.08%
When GunGFuBanDa loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.06%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 15.6145

Group C
When Hitman wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.01%
When Hitman loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.01%
When Hydra wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0%
When Hydra loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0%
When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.01%
When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.01%
When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.36%
When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.29%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.656312

Group D
When ForGG wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 7.44%
When ForGG loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 14.67%
When Jaedong wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 10.47%
When Jaedong loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 9.74%
When iaguz wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.17%
When iaguz loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.07%
When Lilbow wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 9.59%
When Lilbow loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 12.68%
Giving this match an Effects Score of 64.8398


Aliglac Ratings
C > D > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +
Group A
Zanster has an Aligulac rating of 1843
MarineLorD has an Aligulac rating of 1898
elfi has an Aligulac rating of 1708
MaNa has an Aligulac rating of 1890
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7339

Group B
Sen has an Aligulac rating of 1699
Snute has an Aligulac rating of 2005
Petraeus has an Aligulac rating of 1990
GunGFuBanDa has an Aligulac rating of 1800
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7494

Group C
Hitman has an Aligulac rating of 1619
Hydra has an Aligulac rating of 2324
Polt has an Aligulac rating of 2117
viOLet has an Aligulac rating of 1877
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7937

Group D
ForGG has an Aligulac rating of 2112
Jaedong has an Aligulac rating of 2055
iaguz has an Aligulac rating of 1669
Lilbow has an Aligulac rating of 2029
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7865


Final Placings
Group A has two 3rd places, and three 4th places
Group B has one 2nd place, three 3rd places, and one 4th place
Group C has three 1st places, one 2nd place, and one 4th place
Group D has two 1st places, and three 2nd places

With three 1st places, Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to Hitman, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow.

Check out the fantasy league WCS Wars!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
August 31 2015 02:52 GMT
#745
WCS Predictor 2015
MSI Masters Day 2

+ Show Spoiler [Changes During This Tournament] +

Biggest Winners
kr sOs went up by 13.11%, going from 50.65% to 63.76%
kr Solar went up by 2.05%, going from 9.35% to 11.4%
kr HyuN went up by 0.33%, going from 8.82% to 9.14%
kr viOLet went up by 0.23%, going from 0.28% to 0.51%

Biggest Losers
kr FanTaSy went down by 5.13%, going from 62.57% to 57.44%
kr Dark went down by 3.44%, going from 74.9% to 71.45%
kr TY went down by 1.66%, going from 24.93% to 23.27%
kr Jaedong went down by 1.34%, going from 10.01% to 8.66%
kr Rogue went down by 1.11%, going from 95.93% to 94.82%
nz Petraeus went down by 0.85%, going from 1.1% to 0.24%
kr GuMiho went down by 0.58%, going from 6.63% to 6.05%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

kr Dear went down by 0.42%, going from 5.9% to 5.48%
fr Lilbow went down by 0.24%, going from 12.93% to 12.69%
kr Stats went down by 0.22%, going from 2.65% to 2.43%
kr Bbyong went down by 0.22%, going from 4.16% to 3.94%
kr ForGG went down by 0.12%, going from 14.84% to 14.72%



kr viOLet vs kr sOs in
in MSI Masters quarterfinals.
viOLet is at 0.51% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.5% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.99%, or 0.18% if they lose.
sOs is at 63.76% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.5% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 73.49%, or 49.46% if they lose.

kr HyuN vs kr INnoVation in
in MSI Masters quarterfinals.
HyuN is at 9.14% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.21% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 17.07%, or 3.81% if they lose.
INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.79% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.99% if they lose.

kr PartinG vs kr Solar in
in MSI Masters semifinals.
PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.79% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Solar is at 11.4% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.21% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.56%, or 9.04% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [MSI Winning Chances] +

kr Solar has a 26.1% chance to win
----going from 11.4% to 16.84% if they get 1st, or 9.48% if they don't.
kr PartinG has a 25.46% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr INnoVation has a 21.31% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.
kr sOs has a 12.28% chance to win
----going from 63.76% to 97.47% if they get 1st, or 59.04% if they don't.
kr HyuN has a 9.86% chance to win
----going from 9.14% to 47.39% if they get 1st, or 4.95% if they don't.
kr viOLet has a 4.99% chance to win
----going from 0.51% to 3.74% if they get 1st, or 0.34% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [MSI Placements Table] +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Other Events] +

40.5% of the time.
viOLet wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change FanTaSy's chances
from 57.44% to 61.39%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Rogue's chances
from 94.82% to 93.99%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Stats's chances
from 2.43% to 2.29%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Stats's chances
from 2.43% to 2.48%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Zest's chances
from 99.82% to 99.78%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Bunny's chances
from 0.14% to 0.12%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change MyuNgSiK's chances
from 0.12% to 0.09%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Curious's chances
from 0.16% to 0.13%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change MaNa's chances
from 0.23% to 0.22%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Zest's chances
from 99.82% to 99.83%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Petraeus's chances
from 0.24% to 0.23%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Bunny's chances
from 0.14% to 0.15%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Curious's chances
from 0.16% to 0.16%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change MaNa's chances
from 0.23% to 0.24%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change MyuNgSiK's chances
from 0.12% to 0.13%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change soO's chances
from 0.16% to 0.17%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change soO's chances
from 0.16% to 0.15%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Petraeus's chances
from 0.24% to 0.25%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Flash's chances
from 0.18% to 0.17%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Flash's chances
from 0.18% to 0.18%

59.79% of the time.
INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Polt's chances
from 99.99% to 99.99%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change Polt's chances
from 99.99% to 99.98%

59.5% of the time.
sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals
This would change INnoVation's chances
from 99.99% to 99.99%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change Zest's chances
from 99.82% to 99.81%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change Curious's chances
from 0.16% to 0.15%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change Polt's chances
from 99.99% to 99.98%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change MyuNgSiK's chances
from 0.12% to 0.12%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change Bunny's chances
from 0.14% to 0.14%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change INnoVation's chances
from 99.99% to 99.99%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change Flash's chances
from 0.18% to 0.17%

52.21% of the time.
Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change soO's chances
from 0.16% to 0.16%

47.79% of the time.
PartinG wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change Curious's chances
from 0.16% to 0.16%

47.79% of the time.
PartinG wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals
This would change MyuNgSiK's chances
from 0.12% to 0.12%

"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 02 2015 00:08 GMT
#746
While Rain is sitting comfortably at 100% Blizzcon Chances, this match is important for Rogue, and Dear and Bbyong must win this match. This group contains 2 out of the 4 players who "must win" GSL. Out of the 16 players remaining, Flash is the only one who would not get over 90% Blizzcon Chances if he won GSL, he would only end up at 5.15%. So it's very likely this season's champion will also be at Blizzcon.

Rogue is currently at 91.68%, with 3025 WCS Points and an AFK Chances of 80.24%. If he wins here then he goes up to 98.39%, virtually secured for Blizzcon. If he loses then he goes down to a still strong 86.12%. But other players can still pass him. If Rogue loses this match and Dear goes on to win GSL, then Rogue falls down to 64.83%. If Rogue loses this and Bbyong goes on to win GSL, then Rogue goes down to 65.73%. Also if Rogue loses this match and TY wins SSL, then Rogue goes down to 64.55%.

Dear is currently at 4.78% with 1825 WCS Points. A loss here would basically eliminate him, putting him down to 0.09% (without placeholder tournaments it would be 0%). A 2nd place in GSL puts Dear at 9.97% and a 1st place would put him at 99.8%. A 2nd in GSL along with a 4th at Dreamhack would put him at 85.42%. A 4th in GSL and 1st in Dreamhack would be 87.92%. 4th in GSL with a 2nd in Dreamhack would be 45.45%. A 4th place in both would only be 7.82% though.

Bbyong is a little behind Dear at 3.48% with 1550 WCS Points. A loss here would put him at 0.03%, or 0% if you take out the placeholder tournaments. A 1st place in GSL would put him up at 91.31%. A 2nd place in GSL would be just 3.82%, paired with a 2nd place in Dreamhack that'd be 52.07%. 2nd in GSL with 1st in Dreamhack would be 89.22%. 2nd in GSL with a 4th in Dreamhack is just 12.43%.

WCS Predictor 2015
GSL Code S Season 3 Ro16 Group A


kr Rogue, kr Dear, kr Bbyong, and kr Rain in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
Dear and Bbyong must win this match!
Rain has the #1 Headband.
Rogue is at 91.68% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.25% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 98.39%, or 86.12% if they lose.
Bbyong is at 3.48% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.2% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 7.67%, or 0.03% if they lose.
Dear is at 4.78% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.43% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.59%, or 0.09% if they lose.
Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.11% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Other Ro16 Groups] +

kr herO, kr Classic, kr sOs, and kr Maru in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
herO has the #4 Headband.
This is the Group of Death!
herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.32% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
sOs is at 97.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.64% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.64%, or 95.63% if they lose.
Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 53.01% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.04% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

kr Solar, kr Zest, kr ByuL, and kr Dark in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
Solar must win this match!
ByuL has the #2 Headband.Dark has the #3 Headband.
Solar is at 9.05% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.87% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.1%, or 0.14% if they lose.
ByuL is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.69% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
Zest is at 99.62% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.76% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.25% if they lose.
Dark is at 66.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.68% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 91.49%, or 38.95% if they lose.

kr PartinG, kr GuMiho, kr INnoVation, and kr Flash in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
GuMiho must win this match!
This is the 2nd place Group of Death!
PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.19% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.17% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
GuMiho is at 5.4% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.9% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.24%, or 0.19% if they lose.
Flash is at 0.14% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.74% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.36%, or 0.01% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] +

Solar, Dear, GuMiho, and Bbyong must win this tournament!
kr INnoVation has a 14.06% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.
kr Rain has a 8.54% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr PartinG has a 7.99% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr Classic has a 7.74% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr sOs has a 7.47% chance to win
----going from 97.66% to 100% if they get 1st, or 97.47% if they don't.
kr Solar has a 7.04% chance to win
----going from 9.05% to 99.8% if they get 1st, or 2.18% if they don't.
kr Zest has a 6.9% chance to win
----going from 99.62% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.59% if they don't.
kr Dark has a 6.67% chance to win
----going from 66.1% to 100% if they get 1st, or 63.68% if they don't.
kr herO has a 6.38% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr Maru has a 6.03% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr ByuL has a 3.83% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.
kr Rogue has a 3.8% chance to win
----going from 91.68% to 100% if they get 1st, or 91.35% if they don't.
kr Dear has a 3.75% chance to win
----going from 4.78% to 99.8% if they get 1st, or 1.09% if they don't.
kr GuMiho has a 3.6% chance to win
----going from 5.4% to 99.96% if they get 1st, or 1.86% if they don't.
kr Bbyong has a 3.47% chance to win
----going from 3.48% to 91.29% if they get 1st, or 0.32% if they don't.
kr Flash has a 2.72% chance to win
----going from 0.14% to 5.15% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] +
[image loading]

"Expert" mods4ever.com
Eyx
Profile Joined December 2010
England165 Posts
September 02 2015 12:35 GMT
#747
The final seeds and match stats are a little hard to get info from in a way. Who is rain likely to play? He isn't actually in either!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 02 2015 14:04 GMT
#748
On September 02 2015 21:35 Eyx wrote:
The final seeds and match stats are a little hard to get info from in a way. Who is rain likely to play? He isn't actually in either!

check Rain's own page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?p=p&pid=7#player-final-seed-stats-section
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 03 2015 01:42 GMT
#749
In the SSL semifinals we have 3 players already over 99.99%, and then we have TY at 20.89% with 2500 WCS Points.

If TY loses here then he cannot make it to Blizzcon unless he gets a 4th place or better at Dreamhack or a new tournament is announced. A loss here and a 2nd at Dreamhack puts him at 55.18%, a 1st instead of that 2nd would be 82.51%. A 2nd place in SSL means that he just needs a 16th in Dreamhack to get over 50%, with a 52.58%.

WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 3 Semifinal 1


kr TY vs kr ByuL in
in StarLeague Season 3 semifinals.
TY must win this match!
ByuL has the #2 Headband.
TY is at 20.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.1% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 47.04%, or 3.38% if they lose.
ByuL is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.9% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [herO vs Rain] +

kr herO vs kr Rain in
in StarLeague Season 3 semifinals.
herO has the #4 Headband.Rain has the #1 Headband.
herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.27% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.73% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] +

kr Rain has a 32.39% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr herO has a 29.21% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr ByuL has a 23.52% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.
kr TY has a 14.88% chance to win
----going from 20.89% to 99.74% if they get 1st, or 7.1% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [SSL Placements Table] +
[image loading]

"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
September 03 2015 14:55 GMT
#750
omgg so many people jumped on my Byul hype train
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
September 03 2015 16:15 GMT
#751
The top 3 in WCS Wars has a nice comfy lead over the rest now. But it's close between us.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
rotta
Profile Joined December 2011
5586 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-09-03 16:19:26
September 03 2015 16:18 GMT
#752
DH player list when? I might even go, since Sthlm is so close. <3
don't wall off against random
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 03 2015 17:37 GMT
#753
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Spots, 13 players
Thursday, Sep 03 5:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4078)


(This is a cross-post of my first article on Blizzard's WCS Website)

Who will go to Blizzcon and who still needs to win more WCS Points? I'm Ray Carro, aka Die4Ever. I've created WCS Predictor, a complex piece of custom software, to calculate these statistics and more by simulating every WCS match millions of times over. For this post we will be looking at "Blizzcon Chances" which is the percentage probability of the player being in the top 16 for qualifying to Blizzcon. You will see a few cases of some players with more WCS Points having lower Blizzcon Chances than someone with less WCS Points. This is because of factors such as their Aligulac skill rating; the tournaments they are still in; and the skill ratings of their opponents.

Recently we had sOs replacing Zest for MSI Masters and then winning the whole tournament. sOs gained a massive 70.01% Blizzcon Chances, going from 27.66% up to 97.67%. Now after the results of GSL Ro16 Group A and the first SSL semifinal, sOs is at 97.32%. After losing to Byul, TY just fell from 20.89% down to 3.39%. TY losing has given other players a better chance, especially Fantasy and Dark who both rose by over 5% Blizzcon Chances.
Let's consider over 95% to be nearly secured, and we can look at what it would take for players to get into that "nearly secured" bracket, along with what single event would hurt them the most.


Secured Players - 100% Blizzcon Chances - 9 Players
These 9 players are locked in from strong performances throughout the year.


herO 100% with 6,700 WCS Points.

PartinG 100% with 5,850 WCS Points.

Life 100% with 5,475 WCS Points.

Maru 100% with 5,450 WCS Points.

Rain 100% with 4,925 WCS Points.

Hydra 100% with 4,700 WCS Points.

Dream 100% with 4,275 WCS Points.

Classic 100% with 4,250 WCS Points.

ByuL 100% with 4,025 WCS Points.


Nearly Secured Players - Over 95% - 5 Players
These 5 players will almost certainly qualify.


INnoVation 99.99% with 3,625 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - INnoVation loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring INnoVation down to 99.99%.

Polt 99.99% with 3,575 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Polt loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Polt down to 99.99%.

Zest 99.63% with 3,375 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Zest loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring Zest down to 99.27%.

Rogue 99.01% with 3,325 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Dear gets 1st in GSL. This would bring Rogue down to 95.44%.

sOs 97.32% with 3,150 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - FanTaSy gets 1st in DreamHack. This would bring sOs down to 87.48%.


Over 20% - 2 Players
These players might qualify even if they don't earn any additional points, but they'll definitely want to in order to secure their chances.


Dark 69.03% with 2,800 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Solar gets 1st in GSL Code S Season 3. This would bring Dark down to 35.55%.
To get nearly secured - A 16th in GSL with a 2nd in Dreamhack, an 8th in both GSL and Dreamhack, or a 4th in GSL with no points required from Dreamhack. If Dark loses his GSL round of 16 match and also gets 16th in Dreamhack then he's still in a decent spot at 74.99%.

FanTaSy 51.6% with 2,900 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - TY gets 1st in DreamHack. This would bring FanTaSy down to 16.99%.
To get nearly secured - Fantasy is out of SSL and GSL, so he needs a 2nd in DreamHack to get up to 95.77%. However, even a 16th place at Dreamhack would put Fantasy at 61.39%.


Over 5% - 7 Players
All 7 of these players can get nearly secured if they win their GSL/WCS and get no points from Dreamhack. Alternatively they can get 2nd in their GSL/WCS and win Dreamhack.


ForGG 13.82% with 1,825 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - ForGG loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring ForGG down to 0.11%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring ForGG up to 99.86%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring ForGG up to 99.52%.

Lilbow 13.31% with 1,925 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Lilbow loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Lilbow down to 0.15%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Lilbow up to 99.95%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Lilbow up to 99.95%.

Dear 10.63% with 2,125 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Dear gets 8th in GSL. This would bring Dear down to 0.41%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in GSL and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Dear up to 99.82%. 2nd in GSL and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Dear up to 99.76%.

Solar 9.67% with 1,850 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Solar loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring Solar down to 0.14%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in GSL and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Solar up to 99.82%. 2nd in GSL and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Solar up to 99.86%.

Snute 8.47% with 1,700 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Snute loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Snute down to 0.04%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Snute up to 98.57%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Snute up to 95.22%.

Jaedong 8.09% with 1,775 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Jaedong loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Jaedong down to 0.05%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Jaedong up to 99.71%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Jaedong up to 99.03%.

GuMiho 5.63% with 1,925 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - GuMiho loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring GuMiho down to 0.19%.
To get nearly secured - 1st in GSL and no points from DreamHack; this would bring GuMiho up to 99.98%. 2nd in GSL and 2nd in DreamHack; this would bring GuMiho up to 95.64%.


Over 1% - 4 Players
These 4 players need to work some magic and get a little lucky.


MarineLorD 4.06% with 1,275 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - MarineLorD loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring MarineLorD down to 0.01%.
To get nearly secured - MarineLord is still in WCS, but he doesn't have enough points for a win there to do it alone. He would need a 1st in WCS and 4th in DreamHack. This would bring MarineLorD up to 97.51%.

TY 3.38% with 2,500 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - TY gets no points from DreamHack. This would bring TY down to 1.96%.
Since TY just lost to ByuL, he fell from 20.89% down to 3.39%. Now he only has Dreamhack left, a win there would put him at 82.56%. If Dark loses his GSL round of 16 match and TY wins Dreamhack, TY would go up to 89.44%.

HyuN 3.07% with 2,375 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - HyuN gets no points from DreamHack. This would bring HyuN down to 1.78%.
HyuN is still in the 4Gamers tournament, however as a tier 3 it is offering less points than Dreamhack. A win at Dreamhack would put Hyun at 76.84%. A win at 4Gamers combined with a win at Dreamhack would put Hyun at 85.6%.

Stats 1.89% with 2,350 WCS Points.
Most hurtful event - Stats gets no points from DreamHack. This would bring Stats down to 1.04%.
Stats only has Dreamhack left, a win there would put him at 66.11%. If Dark loses his GSL round of 16 match and Stats wins Dreamhack, then Stats goes up to 79.16%.


Be sure to check the website for very frequent updates, the FAQ, and the fantasy league WCS Wars! http://sc2.4ever.tv/
Also check out my post on Blizzard's own WCS website http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/articles/2-spots-13-players

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
September 03 2015 18:17 GMT
#754
wow featured post on bnet!!!

thats so awesome!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-09-04 02:59:18
September 03 2015 23:46 GMT
#755
Well this group matters slightly for sOs. And the winner of the group gets the #4 Headband! Also herO is at 6700 WCS Points, if he advances from this group then he goes up to 7000!

Here are some other players that can hurt sOs's chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Events] +

1.15% of the time.
FanTaSy gets 1st place in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 87.68%

8.52% of the time.
Dear gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 89.69%

7.49% of the time.
Solar gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 92.46%

13.37% of the time.
Dark gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 3
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 93.38%

12.1% of the time.
ForGG gets 1st place in WCS Premier Season 3
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 93.93%

4.23% of the time.
sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and
Dear gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 81.21%

6.53% of the time.
sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and
Dark gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 3
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 86.92%

25.55% of the time.
sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and
Dark wins their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 92.71%

19.72% of the time.
sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and
GuMiho wins their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16
This would change sOs's chances
from 97.32% to 93.95%


WCS Predictor 2015
GSL Code S Season 3 Ro16 Group B


kr herO, kr Classic, kr sOs, and kr Maru in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
herO has the #4 Headband.
This is the Group of Death!
herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.32% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
sOs is at 97.32% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.61% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.64%, or 94.93% if they lose.
Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 53.01% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.07% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro16 Groups] +

kr Solar, kr Zest, kr ByuL, and kr Dark in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
Solar must win this match!
ByuL has the #2 Headband.Dark has the #3 Headband.
Solar is at 9.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.91% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 17.16%, or 0.14% if they lose.
ByuL is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.5% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Zest is at 99.63% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.89% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.27% if they lose.
Dark is at 69.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.7% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 91.8%, or 44.63% if they lose.

kr PartinG, kr GuMiho, kr INnoVation, and kr Flash in
in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16.
GuMiho must win this match!
This is the 2nd place Group of Death!
PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.11% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.2% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
GuMiho is at 5.68% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.93% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.94%, or 0.19% if they lose.
Flash is at 0.15% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.76% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.38%, or 0.01% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] +

Dear, Solar, and GuMiho must win this tournament!
kr INnoVation has a 14.38% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.
kr Rogue has a 8.88% chance to win
----going from 99.01% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.91% if they don't.
kr Dear has a 8.52% chance to win
----going from 10.62% to 99.83% if they get 1st, or 2.31% if they don't.
kr Classic has a 8.06% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr PartinG has a 8.05% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

kr sOs has a 7.78% chance to win
----going from 97.32% to 100% if they get 1st, or 97.09% if they don't.
kr Solar has a 7.49% chance to win
----going from 9.66% to 99.9% if they get 1st, or 2.36% if they don't.
kr Zest has a 7.02% chance to win
----going from 99.63% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.6% if they don't.
kr Dark has a 6.88% chance to win
----going from 69.02% to 100% if they get 1st, or 66.73% if they don't.
kr herO has a 6.58% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr Maru has a 6.08% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr ByuL has a 3.82% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
kr GuMiho has a 3.79% chance to win
----going from 5.68% to 99.95% if they get 1st, or 1.97% if they don't.
kr Flash has a 2.68% chance to win
----going from 0.15% to 5.41% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.


+ Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] +
[image loading]

"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 03 2015 23:50 GMT
#756
On September 04 2015 03:17 sharkie wrote:
wow featured post on bnet!!!

thats so awesome!

It is
Expect more!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
September 03 2015 23:59 GMT
#757
Man, I really hope sOs clinches his spot.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 04 2015 00:07 GMT
#758
On September 04 2015 08:59 The_Templar wrote:
Man, I really hope sOs clinches his spot.

if he fails 2 years in a row from over 95%....
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 04 2015 02:56 GMT
#759
holy crap, if herO advances from his group then he goes up to 7000 WCS Points lol
"Expert" mods4ever.com
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
September 04 2015 03:21 GMT
#760
On September 04 2015 11:56 Die4Ever wrote:
holy crap, if herO advances from his group then he goes up to 7000 WCS Points lol

Can he get enough WCS points to take the top two spots?
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
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