WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 38
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sharkie
Austria18281 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
On August 29 2015 05:28 sharkie wrote: Snute and Marinelord should be giving me some extra points with their easy groups no? You can see that their mean points went up because of their easier groups, but they weren't easy enough to bump their median points up a whole notch | ||
sharkie
Austria18281 Posts
At least I somehow ended up #1 after my vacation ^^ Byul>Innovation changed the points so much | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GSL Ro16 and WCS Ro16 Groups Drawn and Group of Death Analysis! Saturday, Aug 29 4:15am GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4024) Biggest Winners and Losers since Friday, Aug 21 2:34pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim ID #3701 vs Sim ID #4024) Biggest Winners sOs went up by 22.62%, going from 28.01% to 50.64% Rogue went up by 10.56%, going from 85.36% to 95.92% ForGG went up by 5.31%, going from 9.55% to 14.86% Snute went up by 3.07%, going from 5.39% to 8.46% GuMiho went up by 3.02%, going from 3.62% to 6.64% Lilbow went up by 0.96%, going from 11.98% to 12.94% Dear went up by 0.82%, going from 5.1% to 5.91% + Show Spoiler [More Winners] + Biggest Losers soO went down by 11.51%, going from 11.71% to 0.2% FanTaSy went down by 10.1%, going from 72.64% to 62.54% MyuNgSiK went down by 8.61%, going from 8.77% to 0.16% TY went down by 5.56%, going from 30.5% to 24.93% Dark went down by 4.41%, going from 79.29% to 74.89% Jaedong went down by 1.84%, going from 11.84% to 9.99% TLO went down by 1.23%, going from 1.23% to 0.01% + Show Spoiler [More Losers] + MarineLorD went down by 1.01%, going from 5.46% to 4.46% HyuN went down by 0.95%, going from 9.77% to 8.82% Stats went down by 0.49%, going from 3.14% to 2.65% Bbyong went down by 0.38%, going from 4.54% to 4.16% Petraeus went down by 0.18%, going from 1.27% to 1.09% Zest went down by 0.11%, going from 99.99% to 99.89% + Show Spoiler [Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] + Chances of 1+ foreigners from 25.85% up to 27.15% Chances of 2+ foreigners from 0.44% up to 0.47% Top Foreigner Hopes Lilbow 12.53% chance to be the only foreigner, 12.94% chance overall. Snute 8.13% chance to be the only foreigner, 8.46% chance overall. MarineLorD 4.31% chance to be the only foreigner, 4.46% chance overall. Petraeus 1.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.09% chance overall. MaNa 0.28% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.29% chance overall. Bunny 0.17% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.19% chance overall. iaguz 0.07% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.07% chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] + GunGFuBanDa 0.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.06% chance overall. Sen 0.03% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.03% chance overall. elfi 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall. Zanster 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall. TLO 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. Hitman 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. FireCake 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. Harstem 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. ShoWTimE 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. Has 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. Kane 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. Happy 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.01% chance overall. + Show Spoiler [Headbands] + Rain is the current #1 Headband holder with 0 defenses! ByuL is the current #2 Headband holder with 0 defenses! Dark is the current #3 Headband holder with 4 defenses! herO is the current #4 Headband holder with 3 defenses! Defense History herO defended the #4 from MyuNgSiK at StarLeague Season 3 Dark defended the #3 from sKyHigh at GSL Code S Season 3 Dark defended the #3 from MMA at GSL Code S Season 3 + Show Spoiler [More Defense History] + ByuL won the #2 from INnoVation at StarLeague Season 3 INnoVation defended the #2 from Curious at GSL Code S Season 3 INnoVation defended the #2 from Flash at GSL Code S Season 3 herO defended the #4 from Losira at GSL Code S Season 3 herO defended the #4 from Hack at GSL Code S Season 3 INnoVation won the #2 from soO at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from FanTaSy at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from Lambo at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from MMA at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from HeRoMaRinE at IEM Gamescom herO won the #4 from Life at StarLeague Season 3 Life won the #4 from sOs at StarLeague Season 3 Dark defended the #3 from aLive at GSL Code A Season 3 soO defended the #2 from Dark at KeSPA Cup 2 Dark defended the #3 from Dream at KeSPA Cup 2 soO won the #2 from Flash at KeSPA Cup 2 Dark won the #3 from ByuL at KeSPA Cup 2 Flash won the #2 from Classic at KeSPA Cup 2 Classic defended the #2 from HerO at GSL Code A Season 3 ByuL defended the #3 from Pigbaby at KeSPA Cup 2 Classic defended the #2 from Rogue at KeSPA Cup 2 sOs defended the #4 from Solar at StarLeague Season 3 ByuL defended the #3 from Shine at StarLeague Season 3 + Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] + 0.93% of the time 2625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 9.94% of the time 2800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 18.18% of the time 2875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 55.23% of the time 2900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 74.58% of the time 3025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 90.15% of the time 3200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 99.04% of the time 3450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon + Show Spoiler [Final Seed Stats] + herO has a 82.86% chance to be the #1 seed. PartinG has a 37.44% chance to be the #2 seed. PartinG has a 33.36% chance to be the #3 seed. Maru has a 29.09% chance to be the #4 seed. Life has a 39.82% chance to be the #5 seed. Hydra has a 24.82% chance to be the #6 seed. Classic has a 21.95% chance to be the #7 seed. Classic has a 29.56% chance to be the #8 seed. Dream has a 36.25% chance to be the #9 seed. Dream has a 28.18% chance to be the #10 seed. Polt has a 25.62% chance to be the #11 seed. Zest has a 25.36% chance to be the #12 seed. Zest has a 24.06% chance to be the #13 seed. Rogue has a 26.78% chance to be the #14 seed. Rogue has a 23.42% chance to be the #15 seed. FanTaSy has a 32.04% chance to be the #16 seed. + Show Spoiler [Final Match Stats] + herO vs FanTaSy has a 29.92% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Dream vs Classic has a 27.83% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. PartinG vs Rogue has a 21.83% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Life vs Zest has a 19.78% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Dark vs herO has a 17.98% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Maru vs Zest has a 17.81% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ByuL vs Dream has a 17.8% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ByuL vs Classic has a 16.31% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Maru vs Rogue has a 15.39% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Life vs INnoVation has a 15.02% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [WCS Ro16 Groups] + Zanster, MarineLorD, elfi, and MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. MarineLorD must win this match! Zanster is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.68% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. elfi is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.63% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 4.46% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.58% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.02%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.11% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.51%, or 0.01% if they lose. Sen, Snute, Petraeus, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Snute and Petraeus must win this match! Sen is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.99% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.08%, or 0% if they lose. Petraeus is at 1.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.85%, or 0.01% if they lose. Snute is at 8.46% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.01% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.6%, or 0.06% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.92% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.14%, or 0.01% if they lose. Hitman, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 25.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.42% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.76% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. viOLet is at 0.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.13% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.65%, or 0.01% if they lose. ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. ForGG, Jaedong, and Lilbow must win this match! ForGG is at 14.86% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 22.3%, or 0.19% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.51% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.24%, or 0% if they lose. Jaedong is at 9.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.19% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 20.47%, or 0.25% if they lose. Lilbow is at 12.94% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.95% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 22.53%, or 0.26% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Ro16 Groups] + Rogue, Dear, Bbyong, and Rain in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Dear and Bbyong must win this match! Rain has the #1 Headband. Rogue is at 95.92% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.41% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.32%, or 93.2% if they lose. Bbyong is at 4.16% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.05%, or 0.04% if they lose. Dear is at 5.91% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.13% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 11.63%, or 0.16% if they lose. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.8% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Maru, sOs, Classic, and herO in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. herO has the #4 Headband. Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.43% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.57% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. sOs is at 50.64% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.54% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 78.77%, or 27.11% if they lose. herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.47% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Solar, Zest, ByuL, and Dark in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Solar must win this match! ByuL has the #2 Headband.Dark has the #3 Headband. Solar is at 9.37% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.81%, or 0.25% if they lose. ByuL is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.87% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Zest is at 99.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.17% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.78% if they lose. Dark is at 74.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.88% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 96.34%, or 51.76% if they lose. PartinG, GuMiho, INnoVation, and Flash in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. GuMiho must win this match! PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.54% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.98% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.25% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.96% if they lose. GuMiho is at 6.64% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.45% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 15.9%, or 0.34% if they lose. Flash is at 0.22% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.54%, or 0.01% if they lose. GSL Ro16 Group of Death And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the average Aligulac rating of the players in the group. Champion Chances D > C > B > A + Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] + Group A Rogue has a 3.95% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Dear has a 4.18% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Bbyong has a 3.81% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Rain has a 8.95% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 20.8864 Group B Maru has a 6.47% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 sOs has a 4.72% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Classic has a 8.06% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 herO has a 6.5% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 25.7499 Group C Solar has a 7.61% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Zest has a 6.75% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 ByuL has a 4.7% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Dark has a 7.23% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 26.2846 Group D Flash has a 2.91% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 INnoVation has a 13.2% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 GuMiho has a 3.8% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 PartinG has a 7.17% chance to win GSL Code S Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 27.0792 Blizzcon Chances B > C > D > A + Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] + Group A Rogue has a 95.77% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Dear has a 5.89% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Bbyong has a 4.15% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Rain has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 205.808 Group B Maru has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon sOs has a 50.45% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Classic has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon herO has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 350.449 Group C Solar has a 9.34% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Zest has a 99.88% chance to qualify for Blizzcon ByuL has a 99.99% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Dark has a 74.54% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 283.767 Group D Flash has a 0.21% chance to qualify for Blizzcon INnoVation has a 99.98% chance to qualify for Blizzcon GuMiho has a 6.61% chance to qualify for Blizzcon PartinG has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 206.811 Blizzcon Chances Lost B > D > C > A + Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] + Group A Rogue's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.08% Dear's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.39% Bbyong's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.1% Rain's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.215268 Group B Maru's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0% sOs's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.68% Classic's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0% herO's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.682919 Group C Solar's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.19% Zest's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.02% ByuL's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% Dark's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.15836 Group D Flash's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.02% INnoVation's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.01% GuMiho's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.5% PartinG's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.515591 Effects C > B > A > D + Show Spoiler [Effects] + Group A When Rogue wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 3.52% When Rogue loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 2.81% When Dear wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 5.69% When Dear loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 5.72% When Bbyong wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 4.89% When Bbyong loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 4.11% When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0% When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0% Giving this match an Effects Score of 26.7311 Group B When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0% When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0% When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 28.1% When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 23.51% When Classic wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0% When Classic loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0% When herO wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0% When herO loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0% Giving this match an Effects Score of 51.6081 Group C When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 7.4% When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 9.09% When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.12% When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.11% When ByuL wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.01% When ByuL loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.01% When Dark wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 21.68% When Dark loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 23.37% Giving this match an Effects Score of 61.7762 Group D When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.31% When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.21% When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.02% When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.02% When GuMiho wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 9.23% When GuMiho loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 6.27% When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0% When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0% Giving this match an Effects Score of 16.0743 Aliglac Ratings D > C > B > A + Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] + Group A Rogue has an Aligulac rating of 2126 Dear has an Aligulac rating of 2081 Bbyong has an Aligulac rating of 2143 Rain has an Aligulac rating of 2288 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8638 Group B Maru has an Aligulac rating of 2273 sOs has an Aligulac rating of 2123 Classic has an Aligulac rating of 2229 herO has an Aligulac rating of 2210 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8835 Group C Solar has an Aligulac rating of 2254 Zest has an Aligulac rating of 2190 ByuL has an Aligulac rating of 2149 Dark has an Aligulac rating of 2263 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8856 Group D Flash has an Aligulac rating of 2072 INnoVation has an Aligulac rating of 2468 GuMiho has an Aligulac rating of 2152 PartinG has an Aligulac rating of 2221 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 8913 Final Placings Group A has one 3rd place, and four 4th places Group B has two 1st places, one 2nd place, and two 3rd places Group C has one 1st place, three 2nd places, and one 3rd place Group D has two 1st places, one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group B edges out Group D by having two 3rd places instead of a 3rd and a 4th place. Congrats to Maru, sOs, Classic, and herO for being the Group of Death! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with Flash, INnoVation, GuMiho, and PartinG. WCS Ro16 Group of Death And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the average Aligulac rating of the players in the group. Champion Chances C > D > B > A + Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] + Group A Zanster has a 3.37% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 MarineLorD has a 5.59% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 elfi has a 1.78% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 MaNa has a 5.37% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 16.1129 Group B Sen has a 1.41% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Snute has a 7.34% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Petraeus has a 6.84% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 GunGFuBanDa has a 2.54% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 18.1266 Group C Hitman has a 0.87% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Hydra has a 20.73% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Polt has a 10.23% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 viOLet has a 3.73% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 35.5568 Group D ForGG has a 12.07% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Jaedong has a 7.78% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 iaguz has a 1.31% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Lilbow has a 9.05% chance to win WCS Premier Season 3 Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.2037 Blizzcon Chances C > D > B > A + Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] + Group A Zanster has a 0.02% chance to qualify for Blizzcon MarineLorD has a 4.46% chance to qualify for Blizzcon elfi has a 0.02% chance to qualify for Blizzcon MaNa has a 0.29% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 4.78522 Group B Sen has a 0.03% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Snute has a 8.46% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Petraeus has a 1.09% chance to qualify for Blizzcon GunGFuBanDa has a 0.06% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 9.63772 Group C Hitman has a 0.01% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Hydra has a 100% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Polt has a 99.99% chance to qualify for Blizzcon viOLet has a 0.29% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 200.294 Group D ForGG has a 14.86% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Jaedong has a 9.99% chance to qualify for Blizzcon iaguz has a 0.07% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Lilbow has a 12.94% chance to qualify for Blizzcon Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 37.8643 Blizzcon Chances Lost D > C > A > B + Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] + Group A Zanster's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% MarineLorD's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.08% elfi's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.01% MaNa's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.02% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0949 Group B Sen's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% Snute's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.82% Petraeus's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.07% GunGFuBanDa's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.885236 Group C Hitman's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% Hydra's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0% Polt's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.01% viOLet's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.01% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.013224 Group D ForGG's Blizzcon Chances changed by 0.94% Jaedong's Blizzcon Chances changed by -1.46% iaguz's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.02% Lilbow's Blizzcon Chances changed by -0.21% Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.741152 Effects D > B > A > C + Show Spoiler [Effects] + Group A When Zanster wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.02% When Zanster loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.02% When MarineLorD wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 3.56% When MarineLorD loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 4.46% When elfi wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.03% When elfi loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.02% When MaNa wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.22% When MaNa loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.29% Giving this match an Effects Score of 8.61053 Group B When Sen wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.05% When Sen loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.03% When Snute wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 5.15% When Snute loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 8.4% When Petraeus wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.76% When Petraeus loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 1.09% When GunGFuBanDa wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.08% When GunGFuBanDa loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.06% Giving this match an Effects Score of 15.6145 Group C When Hitman wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.01% When Hitman loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.01% When Hydra wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0% When Hydra loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0% When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.01% When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.01% When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.36% When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.29% Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.656312 Group D When ForGG wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 7.44% When ForGG loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 14.67% When Jaedong wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 10.47% When Jaedong loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 9.74% When iaguz wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 0.17% When iaguz loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 0.07% When Lilbow wins this match, their Blizzcon Chances go up by 9.59% When Lilbow loses this match, their Blizzcon Chances go down by 12.68% Giving this match an Effects Score of 64.8398 Aliglac Ratings C > D > B > A + Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] + Group A Zanster has an Aligulac rating of 1843 MarineLorD has an Aligulac rating of 1898 elfi has an Aligulac rating of 1708 MaNa has an Aligulac rating of 1890 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7339 Group B Sen has an Aligulac rating of 1699 Snute has an Aligulac rating of 2005 Petraeus has an Aligulac rating of 1990 GunGFuBanDa has an Aligulac rating of 1800 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7494 Group C Hitman has an Aligulac rating of 1619 Hydra has an Aligulac rating of 2324 Polt has an Aligulac rating of 2117 viOLet has an Aligulac rating of 1877 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7937 Group D ForGG has an Aligulac rating of 2112 Jaedong has an Aligulac rating of 2055 iaguz has an Aligulac rating of 1669 Lilbow has an Aligulac rating of 2029 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7865 Final Placings Group A has two 3rd places, and three 4th places Group B has one 2nd place, three 3rd places, and one 4th place Group C has three 1st places, one 2nd place, and one 4th place Group D has two 1st places, and three 2nd places With three 1st places, Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to Hitman, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 MSI Masters Day 2 + Show Spoiler [Changes During This Tournament] + Biggest Winners sOs went up by 13.11%, going from 50.65% to 63.76% Solar went up by 2.05%, going from 9.35% to 11.4% HyuN went up by 0.33%, going from 8.82% to 9.14% viOLet went up by 0.23%, going from 0.28% to 0.51% Biggest Losers FanTaSy went down by 5.13%, going from 62.57% to 57.44% Dark went down by 3.44%, going from 74.9% to 71.45% TY went down by 1.66%, going from 24.93% to 23.27% Jaedong went down by 1.34%, going from 10.01% to 8.66% Rogue went down by 1.11%, going from 95.93% to 94.82% Petraeus went down by 0.85%, going from 1.1% to 0.24% GuMiho went down by 0.58%, going from 6.63% to 6.05% + Show Spoiler [More Losers] + viOLet vs sOs in in MSI Masters quarterfinals. viOLet is at 0.51% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.99%, or 0.18% if they lose. sOs is at 63.76% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 73.49%, or 49.46% if they lose. HyuN vs INnoVation in in MSI Masters quarterfinals. HyuN is at 9.14% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.21% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 17.07%, or 3.81% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.79% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.99% if they lose. PartinG vs Solar in in MSI Masters semifinals. PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.79% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Solar is at 11.4% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.21% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.56%, or 9.04% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [MSI Winning Chances] + Solar has a 26.1% chance to win ----going from 11.4% to 16.84% if they get 1st, or 9.48% if they don't. PartinG has a 25.46% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. INnoVation has a 21.31% chance to win ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. sOs has a 12.28% chance to win ----going from 63.76% to 97.47% if they get 1st, or 59.04% if they don't. HyuN has a 9.86% chance to win ----going from 9.14% to 47.39% if they get 1st, or 4.95% if they don't. viOLet has a 4.99% chance to win ----going from 0.51% to 3.74% if they get 1st, or 0.34% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [MSI Placements Table] + + Show Spoiler [Other Events] + 40.5% of the time. viOLet wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change FanTaSy's chances from 57.44% to 61.39% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Rogue's chances from 94.82% to 93.99% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Stats's chances from 2.43% to 2.29% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Stats's chances from 2.43% to 2.48% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Zest's chances from 99.82% to 99.78% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Bunny's chances from 0.14% to 0.12% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change MyuNgSiK's chances from 0.12% to 0.09% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Curious's chances from 0.16% to 0.13% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change MaNa's chances from 0.23% to 0.22% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Zest's chances from 99.82% to 99.83% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Petraeus's chances from 0.24% to 0.23% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Bunny's chances from 0.14% to 0.15% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Curious's chances from 0.16% to 0.16% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change MaNa's chances from 0.23% to 0.24% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change MyuNgSiK's chances from 0.12% to 0.13% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change soO's chances from 0.16% to 0.17% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change soO's chances from 0.16% to 0.15% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Petraeus's chances from 0.24% to 0.25% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Flash's chances from 0.18% to 0.17% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Flash's chances from 0.18% to 0.18% 59.79% of the time. INnoVation wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Polt's chances from 99.99% to 99.99% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change Polt's chances from 99.99% to 99.98% 59.5% of the time. sOs wins their next match in the MSI Masters quarterfinals This would change INnoVation's chances from 99.99% to 99.99% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change Zest's chances from 99.82% to 99.81% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change Curious's chances from 0.16% to 0.15% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change Polt's chances from 99.99% to 99.98% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change MyuNgSiK's chances from 0.12% to 0.12% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change Bunny's chances from 0.14% to 0.14% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change INnoVation's chances from 99.99% to 99.99% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change Flash's chances from 0.18% to 0.17% 52.21% of the time. Solar wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change soO's chances from 0.16% to 0.16% 47.79% of the time. PartinG wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change Curious's chances from 0.16% to 0.16% 47.79% of the time. PartinG wins their next match in the MSI Masters semifinals This would change MyuNgSiK's chances from 0.12% to 0.12% | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
Rogue is currently at 91.68%, with 3025 WCS Points and an AFK Chances of 80.24%. If he wins here then he goes up to 98.39%, virtually secured for Blizzcon. If he loses then he goes down to a still strong 86.12%. But other players can still pass him. If Rogue loses this match and Dear goes on to win GSL, then Rogue falls down to 64.83%. If Rogue loses this and Bbyong goes on to win GSL, then Rogue goes down to 65.73%. Also if Rogue loses this match and TY wins SSL, then Rogue goes down to 64.55%. Dear is currently at 4.78% with 1825 WCS Points. A loss here would basically eliminate him, putting him down to 0.09% (without placeholder tournaments it would be 0%). A 2nd place in GSL puts Dear at 9.97% and a 1st place would put him at 99.8%. A 2nd in GSL along with a 4th at Dreamhack would put him at 85.42%. A 4th in GSL and 1st in Dreamhack would be 87.92%. 4th in GSL with a 2nd in Dreamhack would be 45.45%. A 4th place in both would only be 7.82% though. Bbyong is a little behind Dear at 3.48% with 1550 WCS Points. A loss here would put him at 0.03%, or 0% if you take out the placeholder tournaments. A 1st place in GSL would put him up at 91.31%. A 2nd place in GSL would be just 3.82%, paired with a 2nd place in Dreamhack that'd be 52.07%. 2nd in GSL with 1st in Dreamhack would be 89.22%. 2nd in GSL with a 4th in Dreamhack is just 12.43%. WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro16 Group A Rogue, Dear, Bbyong, and Rain in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Dear and Bbyong must win this match! Rain has the #1 Headband. Rogue is at 91.68% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.25% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 98.39%, or 86.12% if they lose. Bbyong is at 3.48% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.2% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 7.67%, or 0.03% if they lose. Dear is at 4.78% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.43% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.59%, or 0.09% if they lose. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.11% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Other Ro16 Groups] + herO, Classic, sOs, and Maru in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. herO has the #4 Headband. This is the Group of Death! herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.32% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. sOs is at 97.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.64% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.64%, or 95.63% if they lose. Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 53.01% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.04% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Solar, Zest, ByuL, and Dark in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Solar must win this match! ByuL has the #2 Headband.Dark has the #3 Headband. Solar is at 9.05% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.87% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.1%, or 0.14% if they lose. ByuL is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Zest is at 99.62% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.76% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.25% if they lose. Dark is at 66.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.68% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 91.49%, or 38.95% if they lose. PartinG, GuMiho, INnoVation, and Flash in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. GuMiho must win this match! This is the 2nd place Group of Death! PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.19% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.17% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. GuMiho is at 5.4% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.9% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.24%, or 0.19% if they lose. Flash is at 0.14% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.74% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.36%, or 0.01% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Solar, Dear, GuMiho, and Bbyong must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 14.06% chance to win ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Rain has a 8.54% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. PartinG has a 7.99% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Classic has a 7.74% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. sOs has a 7.47% chance to win ----going from 97.66% to 100% if they get 1st, or 97.47% if they don't. Solar has a 7.04% chance to win ----going from 9.05% to 99.8% if they get 1st, or 2.18% if they don't. Zest has a 6.9% chance to win ----going from 99.62% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.59% if they don't. Dark has a 6.67% chance to win ----going from 66.1% to 100% if they get 1st, or 63.68% if they don't. herO has a 6.38% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Maru has a 6.03% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ByuL has a 3.83% chance to win ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Rogue has a 3.8% chance to win ----going from 91.68% to 100% if they get 1st, or 91.35% if they don't. Dear has a 3.75% chance to win ----going from 4.78% to 99.8% if they get 1st, or 1.09% if they don't. GuMiho has a 3.6% chance to win ----going from 5.4% to 99.96% if they get 1st, or 1.86% if they don't. Bbyong has a 3.47% chance to win ----going from 3.48% to 91.29% if they get 1st, or 0.32% if they don't. Flash has a 2.72% chance to win ----going from 0.14% to 5.15% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + | ||
Eyx
England165 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
On September 02 2015 21:35 Eyx wrote: The final seeds and match stats are a little hard to get info from in a way. Who is rain likely to play? He isn't actually in either! check Rain's own page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?p=p&pid=7#player-final-seed-stats-section | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
If TY loses here then he cannot make it to Blizzcon unless he gets a 4th place or better at Dreamhack or a new tournament is announced. A loss here and a 2nd at Dreamhack puts him at 55.18%, a 1st instead of that 2nd would be 82.51%. A 2nd place in SSL means that he just needs a 16th in Dreamhack to get over 50%, with a 52.58%. WCS Predictor 2015 StarLeague Season 3 Semifinal 1 TY vs ByuL in in StarLeague Season 3 semifinals. TY must win this match! ByuL has the #2 Headband. TY is at 20.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.1% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 47.04%, or 3.38% if they lose. ByuL is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.9% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [herO vs Rain] + herO vs Rain in in StarLeague Season 3 semifinals. herO has the #4 Headband.Rain has the #1 Headband. herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.27% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.73% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] + Rain has a 32.39% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. herO has a 29.21% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ByuL has a 23.52% chance to win ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. TY has a 14.88% chance to win ----going from 20.89% to 99.74% if they get 1st, or 7.1% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [SSL Placements Table] + | ||
sharkie
Austria18281 Posts
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
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rotta
5562 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Spots, 13 players Thursday, Sep 03 5:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4078) (This is a cross-post of my first article on Blizzard's WCS Website) Who will go to Blizzcon and who still needs to win more WCS Points? I'm Ray Carro, aka Die4Ever. I've created WCS Predictor, a complex piece of custom software, to calculate these statistics and more by simulating every WCS match millions of times over. For this post we will be looking at "Blizzcon Chances" which is the percentage probability of the player being in the top 16 for qualifying to Blizzcon. You will see a few cases of some players with more WCS Points having lower Blizzcon Chances than someone with less WCS Points. This is because of factors such as their Aligulac skill rating; the tournaments they are still in; and the skill ratings of their opponents. Recently we had sOs replacing Zest for MSI Masters and then winning the whole tournament. sOs gained a massive 70.01% Blizzcon Chances, going from 27.66% up to 97.67%. Now after the results of GSL Ro16 Group A and the first SSL semifinal, sOs is at 97.32%. After losing to Byul, TY just fell from 20.89% down to 3.39%. TY losing has given other players a better chance, especially Fantasy and Dark who both rose by over 5% Blizzcon Chances. Let's consider over 95% to be nearly secured, and we can look at what it would take for players to get into that "nearly secured" bracket, along with what single event would hurt them the most. Secured Players - 100% Blizzcon Chances - 9 Players These 9 players are locked in from strong performances throughout the year. herO 100% with 6,700 WCS Points. PartinG 100% with 5,850 WCS Points. Life 100% with 5,475 WCS Points. Maru 100% with 5,450 WCS Points. Rain 100% with 4,925 WCS Points. Hydra 100% with 4,700 WCS Points. Dream 100% with 4,275 WCS Points. Classic 100% with 4,250 WCS Points. ByuL 100% with 4,025 WCS Points. Nearly Secured Players - Over 95% - 5 Players These 5 players will almost certainly qualify. INnoVation 99.99% with 3,625 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - INnoVation loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring INnoVation down to 99.99%. Polt 99.99% with 3,575 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Polt loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Polt down to 99.99%. Zest 99.63% with 3,375 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Zest loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring Zest down to 99.27%. Rogue 99.01% with 3,325 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Dear gets 1st in GSL. This would bring Rogue down to 95.44%. sOs 97.32% with 3,150 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - FanTaSy gets 1st in DreamHack. This would bring sOs down to 87.48%. Over 20% - 2 Players These players might qualify even if they don't earn any additional points, but they'll definitely want to in order to secure their chances. Dark 69.03% with 2,800 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Solar gets 1st in GSL Code S Season 3. This would bring Dark down to 35.55%. To get nearly secured - A 16th in GSL with a 2nd in Dreamhack, an 8th in both GSL and Dreamhack, or a 4th in GSL with no points required from Dreamhack. If Dark loses his GSL round of 16 match and also gets 16th in Dreamhack then he's still in a decent spot at 74.99%. FanTaSy 51.6% with 2,900 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - TY gets 1st in DreamHack. This would bring FanTaSy down to 16.99%. To get nearly secured - Fantasy is out of SSL and GSL, so he needs a 2nd in DreamHack to get up to 95.77%. However, even a 16th place at Dreamhack would put Fantasy at 61.39%. Over 5% - 7 Players All 7 of these players can get nearly secured if they win their GSL/WCS and get no points from Dreamhack. Alternatively they can get 2nd in their GSL/WCS and win Dreamhack. ForGG 13.82% with 1,825 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - ForGG loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring ForGG down to 0.11%. To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring ForGG up to 99.86%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring ForGG up to 99.52%. Lilbow 13.31% with 1,925 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Lilbow loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Lilbow down to 0.15%. To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Lilbow up to 99.95%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Lilbow up to 99.95%. Dear 10.63% with 2,125 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Dear gets 8th in GSL. This would bring Dear down to 0.41%. To get nearly secured - 1st in GSL and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Dear up to 99.82%. 2nd in GSL and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Dear up to 99.76%. Solar 9.67% with 1,850 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Solar loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring Solar down to 0.14%. To get nearly secured - 1st in GSL and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Solar up to 99.82%. 2nd in GSL and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Solar up to 99.86%. Snute 8.47% with 1,700 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Snute loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Snute down to 0.04%. To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Snute up to 98.57%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Snute up to 95.22%. Jaedong 8.09% with 1,775 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Jaedong loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring Jaedong down to 0.05%. To get nearly secured - 1st in WCS and no points from DreamHack; this would bring Jaedong up to 99.71%. 2nd in WCS and 1st in DreamHack; this would bring Jaedong up to 99.03%. GuMiho 5.63% with 1,925 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - GuMiho loses their next match in the GSL round of 16. This would bring GuMiho down to 0.19%. To get nearly secured - 1st in GSL and no points from DreamHack; this would bring GuMiho up to 99.98%. 2nd in GSL and 2nd in DreamHack; this would bring GuMiho up to 95.64%. Over 1% - 4 Players These 4 players need to work some magic and get a little lucky. MarineLorD 4.06% with 1,275 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - MarineLorD loses their next match in the WCS round of 16. This would bring MarineLorD down to 0.01%. To get nearly secured - MarineLord is still in WCS, but he doesn't have enough points for a win there to do it alone. He would need a 1st in WCS and 4th in DreamHack. This would bring MarineLorD up to 97.51%. TY 3.38% with 2,500 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - TY gets no points from DreamHack. This would bring TY down to 1.96%. Since TY just lost to ByuL, he fell from 20.89% down to 3.39%. Now he only has Dreamhack left, a win there would put him at 82.56%. If Dark loses his GSL round of 16 match and TY wins Dreamhack, TY would go up to 89.44%. HyuN 3.07% with 2,375 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - HyuN gets no points from DreamHack. This would bring HyuN down to 1.78%. HyuN is still in the 4Gamers tournament, however as a tier 3 it is offering less points than Dreamhack. A win at Dreamhack would put Hyun at 76.84%. A win at 4Gamers combined with a win at Dreamhack would put Hyun at 85.6%. Stats 1.89% with 2,350 WCS Points. Most hurtful event - Stats gets no points from DreamHack. This would bring Stats down to 1.04%. Stats only has Dreamhack left, a win there would put him at 66.11%. If Dark loses his GSL round of 16 match and Stats wins Dreamhack, then Stats goes up to 79.16%. Be sure to check the website for very frequent updates, the FAQ, and the fantasy league WCS Wars! http://sc2.4ever.tv/ Also check out my post on Blizzard's own WCS website http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/articles/2-spots-13-players --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||
sharkie
Austria18281 Posts
thats so awesome! | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
Here are some other players that can hurt sOs's chances. + Show Spoiler [Events] + 1.15% of the time. FanTaSy gets 1st place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 87.68% 8.52% of the time. Dear gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 89.69% 7.49% of the time. Solar gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 92.46% 13.37% of the time. Dark gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 93.38% 12.1% of the time. ForGG gets 1st place in WCS Premier Season 3 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 93.93% 4.23% of the time. sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and Dear gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 81.21% 6.53% of the time. sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and Dark gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 86.92% 25.55% of the time. sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and Dark wins their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 92.71% 19.72% of the time. sOs loses their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 and GuMiho wins their next match in the GSL Code S Season 3 Round of 16 This would change sOs's chances from 97.32% to 93.95% WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro16 Group B herO, Classic, sOs, and Maru in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. herO has the #4 Headband. This is the Group of Death! herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.32% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. sOs is at 97.32% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.61% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.64%, or 94.93% if they lose. Classic is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 53.01% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.07% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro16 Groups] + Solar, Zest, ByuL, and Dark in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Solar must win this match! ByuL has the #2 Headband.Dark has the #3 Headband. Solar is at 9.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 17.16%, or 0.14% if they lose. ByuL is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Zest is at 99.63% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.89% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.27% if they lose. Dark is at 69.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 91.8%, or 44.63% if they lose. PartinG, GuMiho, INnoVation, and Flash in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. GuMiho must win this match! This is the 2nd place Group of Death! PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.11% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.2% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. GuMiho is at 5.68% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.93% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.94%, or 0.19% if they lose. Flash is at 0.15% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.76% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.38%, or 0.01% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Dear, Solar, and GuMiho must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 14.38% chance to win ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Rogue has a 8.88% chance to win ----going from 99.01% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.91% if they don't. Dear has a 8.52% chance to win ----going from 10.62% to 99.83% if they get 1st, or 2.31% if they don't. Classic has a 8.06% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. PartinG has a 8.05% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + sOs has a 7.78% chance to win ----going from 97.32% to 100% if they get 1st, or 97.09% if they don't. Solar has a 7.49% chance to win ----going from 9.66% to 99.9% if they get 1st, or 2.36% if they don't. Zest has a 7.02% chance to win ----going from 99.63% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.6% if they don't. Dark has a 6.88% chance to win ----going from 69.02% to 100% if they get 1st, or 66.73% if they don't. herO has a 6.58% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Maru has a 6.08% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ByuL has a 3.82% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. GuMiho has a 3.79% chance to win ----going from 5.68% to 99.95% if they get 1st, or 1.97% if they don't. Flash has a 2.68% chance to win ----going from 0.15% to 5.41% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
On September 04 2015 03:17 sharkie wrote: wow featured post on bnet!!! thats so awesome! It is Expect more! | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
On September 04 2015 08:59 The_Templar wrote: Man, I really hope sOs clinches his spot. if he fails 2 years in a row from over 95%.... | ||
Die4Ever
United States17582 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 04 2015 11:56 Die4Ever wrote: holy crap, if herO advances from his group then he goes up to 7000 WCS Points lol Can he get enough WCS points to take the top two spots? | ||
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