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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 04 2015 12:21 The_Templar wrote: Can he get enough WCS points to take the top two spots? Maybe if he gets 10,000 points Blizzard will give him the top 2 seeds, we'll get a herO vs herO finals where he'll proxy gate himself to death | ||
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
On September 04 2015 12:31 Die4Ever wrote: Maybe if he gets 10,000 points Blizzard will give him the top 2 seeds, we'll get a herO vs herO finals where he'll proxy gate himself to death Knowing how well this build goes for him, he'll proxy himself, fail to scout it, but not be able to micro well enough to kill himself. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 4Gamers Final Day   PartinG vs  HyuN in in 4Gamers semifinals. PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 54.31% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. HyuN is at 3.23% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 4.29%, or 2.34% if they lose.  Bomber vs  Ian in in 4Gamers semifinals. Bomber is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 76.56% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. Ian is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 23.44% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [4Gamers Winning Chances] + PartinG has a 42.98% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. HyuN has a 30.08% chance to win----going from 3.23% to 4.58% if they get 1st, or 2.65% if they don't. Bomber has a 23.76% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Ian has a 3.18% chance to win----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [4Gamers Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/N2hLCdu.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All Placeholder Tournaments Removed! Saturday, Sep 05 10:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4117) I have removed all of the placeholder tournaments. All that is left is SSL (all those players are at 100% already, but it'll affect seeding), GSL, WCS, and Dreamhack Stockholm. I gifted back points lost in WCS Wars due to the removal of the Placeholder tournaments. Biggest Winners and Losers from removal of Placeholder tournaments (Sim ID #4110 vs Sim ID #4117) Biggest Winners FanTaSy went up by 5.87%, going from 51.83% to 57.7% sOs went up by 2.98%, going from 93.89% to 96.87% Dark went up by 2.95%, going from 69.47% to 72.42% MarineLorD went up by 0.63%, going from 4.08% to 4.72% Rogue went up by 0.18%, going from 99.75% to 99.94%Biggest Losers HyuN went down by 2.58%, going from 4.58% to 2.01% TY went down by 2.1%, going from 3.69% to 1.58% Dear went down by 1.18%, going from 10.06% to 8.87% Stats went down by 1.13%, going from 1.93% to 0.8% ForGG went down by 1.03%, going from 13.76% to 12.74% Solar went down by 0.97%, going from 9.62% to 8.65% Lilbow went down by 0.95%, going from 13.64% to 12.68%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + GuMiho went down by 0.8%, going from 5.68% to 4.88% Jaedong went down by 0.48%, going from 8.2% to 7.72% Snute went down by 0.45%, going from 8.52% to 8.07% soO went down by 0.14%, going from 0.14% to 0% Petraeus went down by 0.13%, going from 0.23% to 0.1% MaNa went down by 0.12%, going from 0.21% to 0.09% Curious went down by 0.12%, going from 0.12% to 0%+ Show Spoiler [Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances] +
We went from 59 players over 0%, down to just 37! I think it's still interesting to see the highest players with 0% chances so I will continue to show the full top 50. + Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] + Chances of 1+ foreigners from 26.6% down to 25.59% Chances of 2+ foreigners from 0.3% down to 0.13% Top Foreigner Hopes Lilbow 12.57% chance to be the only foreigner, 12.68% chance overall. Snute 7.97% chance to be the only foreigner, 8.07% chance overall. MarineLorD 4.68% chance to be the only foreigner, 4.72% chance overall. Petraeus 0.1% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.1% chance overall. MaNa 0.09% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.09% chance overall. iaguz 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall. GunGFuBanDa 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.+ Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] + + Show Spoiler [Headbands] + Rain is the current #1 Headband holder with 0 defenses! ByuL is the current #2 Headband holder with 1 defenses! Dark is the current #3 Headband holder with 4 defenses! Maru is the current #4 Headband holder with 1 defenses!Defense History Maru defended the #4 from Classic at GSL Code S Season 3 Maru won the #4 from herO at GSL Code S Season 3 ByuL defended the #2 from TY at StarLeague Season 3+ Show Spoiler [More Defense History] + herO defended the #4 from MyuNgSiK at StarLeague Season 3 Dark defended the #3 from sKyHigh at GSL Code S Season 3 Dark defended the #3 from MMA at GSL Code S Season 3 ByuL won the #2 from INnoVation at StarLeague Season 3 INnoVation defended the #2 from Curious at GSL Code S Season 3 INnoVation defended the #2 from Flash at GSL Code S Season 3 herO defended the #4 from Losira at GSL Code S Season 3 herO defended the #4 from Hack at GSL Code S Season 3 INnoVation won the #2 from soO at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from FanTaSy at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from Lambo at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from MMA at IEM Gamescom soO defended the #2 from HeRoMaRinE at IEM Gamescom herO won the #4 from Life at StarLeague Season 3 Life won the #4 from sOs at StarLeague Season 3 Dark defended the #3 from aLive at GSL Code A Season 3 soO defended the #2 from Dark at KeSPA Cup 2 Dark defended the #3 from Dream at KeSPA Cup 2 soO won the #2 from Flash at KeSPA Cup 2 Dark won the #3 from ByuL at KeSPA Cup 2 Flash won the #2 from Classic at KeSPA Cup 2 Classic defended the #2 from HerO at GSL Code A Season 3 ByuL defended the #3 from Pigbaby at KeSPA Cup 2 Classic defended the #2 from Rogue at KeSPA Cup 2 sOs defended the #4 from Solar at StarLeague Season 3 ByuL defended the #3 from Shine at StarLeague Season 3 Rain won the #1 from ByuL at GSL Code S Season 2+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] + 0% of the time 2775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 8.2% of the time 2875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 8.2% of the time 2875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 58.14% of the time 2900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 75.22% of the time 3100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 95.38% of the time 3150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 98.84% of the time 3375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon The closest to 1% marker stayed at 2775. The closest to 50% marker went from 3000 down to 2900. The closest to 99% marker went from 3450 down to 3375. + Show Spoiler [Final Seed Stats] + herO has a 83.07% chance to be the #1 seed. PartinG has a 42.05% chance to be the #2 seed. Maru has a 37.64% chance to be the #3 seed. Life has a 33.15% chance to be the #4 seed. Life has a 43.96% chance to be the #5 seed. Rain has a 26.17% chance to be the #6 seed. Classic has a 26.48% chance to be the #7 seed. Classic has a 32.11% chance to be the #8 seed. Dream has a 43.36% chance to be the #9 seed. Dream has a 34.07% chance to be the #10 seed. Polt has a 29.25% chance to be the #11 seed. Polt has a 26.57% chance to be the #12 seed. Rogue has a 27.71% chance to be the #13 seed. sOs has a 30.56% chance to be the #14 seed. sOs has a 43.34% chance to be the #15 seed. FanTaSy has a 41.75% chance to be the #16 seed.+ Show Spoiler [Final Match Stats] + herO vs FanTaSy has a 36.64% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. PartinG vs sOs has a 28.98% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ByuL vs Dream has a 26.29% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Dark vs herO has a 25.77% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Dream vs Classic has a 25.69% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. sOs vs herO has a 24.92% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Maru vs Rogue has a 22.35% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Life vs Polt has a 21.82% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Maru vs sOs has a 20.68% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Life vs Zest has a 20.59% chance for the first round of Blizzcon.+ Show Spoiler [WCS Ro16 Groups] +  Zanster, MarineLorD,  elfi, and MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. MarineLorD must win this match! Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.62% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. elfi is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.76% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 4.72% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.54% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.49%, or 0% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.16%, or 0% if they lose. Sen, Snute, Petraeus, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Snute must win this match! Sen is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.38% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0% if they lose. Petraeus is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.07% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.18%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 8.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.22% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 12.76%, or 0% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 41.33% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 27.8% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.44% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 72.8% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. viOLet is at 0.08% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.96% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.16%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. ForGG, Jaedong, and Lilbow must win this match! ForGG is at 12.74% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.09% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 19.27%, or 0% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.29% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0% if they lose. Jaedong is at 7.72% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.59% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.57%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 12.68% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.04% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 21.48%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Lilbow, Snute, Jaedong, and MarineLorD must win this tournament! Hydra has a 20.87% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 11.95% chance to win----going from 12.74% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.89% if they don't. Lilbow has a 10.94% chance to win----going from 12.68% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.96% if they don't. Polt has a 8.39% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Snute has a 7.75% chance to win----going from 8.07% to 99.93% if they get 1st, or 0.35% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Jaedong has a 7.36% chance to win----going from 7.72% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 0.39% if they don't. Petraeus has a 5.85% chance to win----going from 0.1% to 1.73% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 5.66% chance to win----going from 4.72% to 82.74% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't. MaNa has a 5.6% chance to win----going from 0.09% to 1.62% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. viOLet has a 4.02% chance to win----going from 0.08% to 1.92% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Zanster has a 3.46% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.07% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 2.62% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.71% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. elfi has a 1.88% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.28% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Sen has a 1.45% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.72% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. iaguz has a 1.34% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.42% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.84% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.11% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jDINQy5.png) + Show Spoiler [Remaining GSL Ro16 Groups] + Dark, ByuL, Zest, and Solar in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Solar must win this match! Dark has the #3 Headband.ByuL has the #2 Headband. Dark is at 72.42% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.71% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 95.09%, or 48.14% if they lose. Zest is at 99.97% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.87% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.94% if they lose. ByuL is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.51% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Solar is at 8.65% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 15.47%, or 0% if they lose. PartinG, GuMiho, INnoVation, and Flash in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. GuMiho must win this match! PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.35% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.23% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. GuMiho is at 4.88% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.65% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 12.31%, or 0% if they lose. Flash is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.17%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Dear, Solar, and GuMiho must win this tournament! Classic has a 14.72% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. INnoVation has a 14.48% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Maru has a 13.73% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Rogue has a 9.74% chance to win----going from 99.94% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.93% if they don't. PartinG has a 8.12% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Dear has a 7.98% chance to win----going from 8.87% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.97% if they don't. Solar has a 7.35% chance to win----going from 8.65% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.4% if they don't. Dark has a 7.19% chance to win----going from 72.42% to 100% if they get 1st, or 70.28% if they don't. Zest has a 6.19% chance to win----going from 99.97% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't. ByuL has a 4.01% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. GuMiho has a 3.77% chance to win----going from 4.88% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.15% if they don't. Flash has a 2.73% chance to win----going from 0.07% to 2.49% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/l0xvDfj.png) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
In Group B we have Snute at 8.22% with 1700 WCS Points. For Snute, a 2nd place would mean 2.7% Blizzcon Chances, and a 1st place puts him at 99.93%. A 2nd place in WCS with a 4th place in Dreamhack would put him at 65.35%. WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro16 Day 1 Zanster, MarineLorD, elfi, and MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. MarineLorD must win this match! Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.6% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. elfi is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 4.84% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.52% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.71%, or 0% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.1% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.16%, or 0% if they lose. Sen, Snute, Petraeus, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Snute must win this match! Sen is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.38% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0% if they lose. Petraeus is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.18%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 8.22% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.22% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.01%, or 0% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 41.32% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Ro16 Day 2 Groups] + Elazer, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. This is the Group of Death! Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.88% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.52% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. viOLet is at 0.08% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.16%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. ForGG, Jaedong, and Lilbow must win this match! This is the 2nd place Group of Death! ForGG is at 13.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.09% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 19.71%, or 0% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.29% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0% if they lose. Jaedong is at 7.84% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.59% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.83%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 12.79% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.04% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 21.66%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Lilbow, Snute, Jaedong, and MarineLorD must win this tournament! Hydra has a 19.26% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 12.25% chance to win----going from 13.03% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.89% if they don't. Lilbow has a 11.06% chance to win----going from 12.79% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.95% if they don't. Polt has a 8.65% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Snute has a 7.9% chance to win----going from 8.22% to 99.93% if they get 1st, or 0.35% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Jaedong has a 7.49% chance to win----going from 7.84% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 0.39% if they don't. Petraeus has a 5.97% chance to win----going from 0.1% to 1.72% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 5.81% chance to win----going from 4.84% to 82.72% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't. MaNa has a 5.67% chance to win----going from 0.09% to 1.59% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. viOLet has a 4.11% chance to win----going from 0.08% to 1.92% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Zanster has a 3.52% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.08% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 2.66% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.69% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. elfi has a 1.91% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.29% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Sen has a 1.49% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.7% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. iaguz has a 1.38% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.41% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.87% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.11% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/uhoifmy.png) | ||
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 08 2015 12:46 SNSeigifried wrote: Die4Ever do you know if Kespa Cup 3 is still on for WCS Points after GSL/SSL are finished or are they just gotta play it with no WCS Points since its been confirmed there will be a 3rd Kespa Cup??? I can say that it won't be giving WCS Points. All tournaments are locked in for points now because time is running out. KeSPA Cup 3 wouldn't be able to start until the GSL and SSL finalists are known for the seeding, and that's way too late. | ||
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sharkie
Austria18509 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
Biggest Winners HyuN went up by 8.68%, going from 2.01% to 10.69% FanTaSy went up by 7.69%, going from 57.47% to 65.16% Jaedong went up by 1.48%, going from 7.72% to 9.2% Snute went up by 1.18%, going from 7.28% to 8.46% MaNa went up by 0.14%, going from 0.04% to 0.18%Biggest Losers Dark went down by 8.49%, going from 72.37% to 63.88% sOs went down by 4.74%, going from 96.84% to 92.11% MarineLorD went down by 2.07%, going from 5.02% to 2.94% TY went down by 0.86%, going from 1.67% to 0.81% Lilbow went down by 0.54%, going from 13.2% to 12.66% Solar went down by 0.49%, going from 8.78% to 8.3% ForGG went down by 0.47%, going from 12.64% to 12.17%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 09 2015 09:33 Die4Ever wrote: Biggest Losers sOs went down by 4.74%, going from 96.84% to 92.11%No, stop | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
Dark is currently at 63.89% Blizzcon Chanceswith 2800 WCS Points, and 23.42% AFK Chances. If he loses here then he goes down to 36.9%, but if he then gets 4th at Dreamhack then he goes up to 97.38% although he wasn't in the first batch of players announced for Dreamhack. An 8th place in GSL puts him at 76.96%, combined with a 16th at Dreamhack that'd be 97.04%. And then a 4th place in GSL puts him at 99.68%. If Solar or Gumiho wins GSL, then Dark falls below 33%. If Hyun wins Dreamhack then Dark falls down to 40.84%. If Dear, ForGG, Snute, Lilbow, or Jaedong wins their GSL/WCS then Dark falls below 50%. Solar is at 8.29% with 1850 WCS Points. If he loses here then he falls to 0%, and even if he gets 4th place in GSL then that's still only 1.09%. 2nd in GSL puts him at 8.66%, 1st in GSL puts him at 99.99%. Solar is not yet confirmed to be going to Dreamhack Stockholm, but maybe he'll end up going, especially if he needs the WCS Points. If he gets 2nd place in GSL and even just 16th in Dreamhack, that boosts him up to 51.12%. 2nd in GSL with a 4th at Dreamhack puts him at 95.79%. WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro16 Group C Dark, ByuL, Zest, and Solar in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. Solar must win this match! Dark has the #3 Headband.ByuL has the #2 Headband. Dark is at 63.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 89.04%, or 36.9% if they lose. Zest is at 99.94% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.36% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.88% if they lose. ByuL is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.9% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Solar is at 8.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.97% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 14.81%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Group D] + PartinG, GuMiho, INnoVation, and Flash in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 16. GuMiho must win this match! This is the 2nd place Group of Death! PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.37% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.68% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. GuMiho is at 4.55% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.28% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 11.31%, or 0% if they lose. Flash is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.67% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.08%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Dear, Solar, and GuMiho must win this tournament! Classic has a 14.82% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. INnoVation has a 14.65% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Maru has a 13.86% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Rogue has a 9.87% chance to win----going from 99.86% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.85% if they don't. Dear has a 8.06% chance to win----going from 8.49% to 99.97% if they get 1st, or 0.48% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Solar has a 7.47% chance to win----going from 8.29% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.89% if they don't. Dark has a 7.32% chance to win----going from 63.89% to 100% if they get 1st, or 61.04% if they don't. PartinG has a 7.15% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Zest has a 6.41% chance to win----going from 99.94% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.93% if they don't. ByuL has a 3.89% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. GuMiho has a 3.84% chance to win----going from 4.55% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.74% if they don't. Flash has a 2.66% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 1.14% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/yvwKN3d.png) | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
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sharkie
Austria18509 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
well since Dark and Solar lost sOs went up by 5.45%, going from 92.09% to 97.54% | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
Lilbow is at 15.38% Blizzcon Chances with 1925 WCS Points. He needs a 4th place or better just to get over 1%, while a 1st place would put him at 99.99%. A 2nd in WCS with a 16th in Dreamhack would put him at 73.17%, but a 2nd in WCS with no points from Dreamhack puts him down to 40.62%. ForGG is at 12.32% with 1825 WCS Points. A 4th place in WCS for ForGG would mean just 0.96%, and a 2nd place would still just be 3.42%. A 2nd in WCS and a 16th in Dreamhack puts him at 58.3%. Jaedong is at 10.3% with 1775 WCS Points, and he's already confirmed for Dreamhack Stockholm. A 4th place in WCS puts him at 5.67%, but if he gets 4th in WCS and no points from Dreamhack then he's out at 0%. A 4th place in WCS means Jaedong needs a 2nd place at Dreamhack to have any chance at all, and it would put him at 40.78%. A 2nd place in WCS would mean Jaedong needs at least a 16th in Dreamhack to have any chance, and it would put him at 37.75%. WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro16 Day 2 Elazer, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. This is the Group of Death! Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.35% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.89% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. viOLet is at 0.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.09%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. ForGG, Jaedong, and Lilbow must win this match! This is the 2nd place Group of Death! ForGG is at 12.32% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 18.64%, or 0% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.11% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.3% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.38%, or 0% if they lose. Jaedong is at 10.3% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.6% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 22.1%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 15.38% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.03% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 26.05%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Day 3] + Zanster, MarineLorD, elfi, and MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. MarineLorD must win this match! Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances. --------------- elfi is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 19.62% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 4.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.79% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.12%, or 0% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.26% Blizzcon Chances, with a 27.59% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.93%, or 0% if they lose. Sen, Snute, Petraeus, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Snute must win this match! Sen is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 18.49% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. Petraeus is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances. --------------- Snute is at 8.82% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.61% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 14.32%, or 0% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 19.9% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Lilbow, Jaedong, Snute, and MarineLorD must win this tournament! Hydra has a 18.48% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 11.77% chance to win----going from 12.32% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.62% if they don't. Lilbow has a 11.43% chance to win----going from 15.38% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 4.45% if they don't. Petraeus has a 10.74% chance to win----going from 0.1% to 0.98% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Zanster has a 8.86% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.15% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Polt has a 7.86% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Jaedong has a 7.4% chance to win----going from 10.3% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 3.13% if they don't. Snute has a 6.83% chance to win----going from 8.82% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 2.14% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 5.1% chance to win----going from 4.29% to 83.8% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. viOLet has a 3.97% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 1.09% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. MaNa has a 2.69% chance to win----going from 0.26% to 9.59% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. iaguz has a 1.43% chance to win----going from 0.11% to 7.59% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 1.13% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.35% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. elfi has a 0.82% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 1.1% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.78% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.6% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Sen has a 0.7% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.4% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/puGAVon.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [If herO Beats Byul in the Finals] + herO goes from 85.48% to be #1 seed up to 99.86% chance to be #1 seed. Byul goes from 19.16% chance to be the #8 seed up to 27.23%. Byul goes from 17.89% chance to be the #9 seed up to 30.25%. Rain goes from 24.65% chance to be the #6 seed up to 40.23%. herO vs Fantasy goes from 36.52% down to 36.35%. At first it seems like herO nearly securing his #1 seed should make his match vs Fantasy more likely. But actually, Fantasy has a nearly even chance to be the #16 or #15 seed, so herO being #2 seed or #1 seed is nearly the same for this. herO vs Dark goes from 21.91% up to 25.91%. Byul vs Dream goes from 19.8% up to 22.95%. Byul vs Polt goes from 14.6% down to 10/76%. Byul vs Classic goes from 12.01% up to 16.43%. Byul vs Rain goes from 2.26% up to 8.77%. Rain vs Dream goes from 16.98% up to 24.06%. Rain vs Polt goes from 15.41% up to 22.21%. Rain vs Innovation goes from 12.1% up to 15.7%. Rain vs Zest goes from 12.04% up to 16.98%. + Show Spoiler [If Rain Beats Byul in the Finals] + Rain goes from a 48.25% chance to get the #6 or #7 seed down to 0.06%. Rain goes from a 24.96% chance to get the #3 or #4 seed up to 76.69%. herO goes from an 85.47% chance to be the #1 seed down to 77.6%. Byul goes from a 37.05% chance to be the #8 or #9 seed up to 60.25%. Parting vs sOs goes from 32.72% down to 26.23%. Life vs Zest goes from 26.03% up to 31.71%. Rain vs Rogue goes from 11.38% up to 25.68%. Rain vs sOs goes from 7.94% up to 24.58%. Rain vs Fantasy goes from 4.2% up to 12.93%. Rain vs Lilbow goes from 2.81% up to 7.97%. Rain vs Polt goes from 15.41% down to 0.89%. Rain vs Innovation goes from 12.1% down to 4.72%. Rain vs Zest goes from 12.04% down to 2.86%. Rain vs Byul goes from 2.66% down to below 0.5%. (untracked) Byul vs Dream goes from 19.79% up to 24.22%. Byul vs Polt goes from 14.6% down to 13.56%. Byul vs Innovation goes from 13.13% down to 10.7%. Byul vs Classic goes from 12.01% up to 19.97%. Byul vs Hydra goes from 8.98% up to 14.82%. + Show Spoiler [If Byul beats herO in the Finals] + Byul goes from a 37.05% chance to be the #8 or #9 seed down to 2.08%. Byul goes from 29.02% chance to be the #5 or #6 seed up to 62.01%. herO goes from 85.47% chance to be the #1 seed up to 87.63%. Rain goes from 10.35% chance to be the #4 seed down to 0.46%. Rain goes from 23.6% chance to be the #7 seed up to 42.31%. Rain goes from 9.53% chance to be the #8 seed up to 27.62%. Rain vs Dream goes from 16.98% up to 27.79%. Rain vs Polt goes from 15.41% up to 18.82%. Byul vs Dream goes form 19.79% down to 12.54%. Byul vs Polt goes from 14.6% up to 18.82%. Byul vs Zest goes from 13.83% up to 20.18%. Byul vs Innovation goes from 13.13% up to 18.9%. Byul vs Rain goes from 2.66% down to 1.53%. + Show Spoiler [If Byul beats Rain in the Finals] + herO goes from 85.47% chance to be the #1 seed down to 77.41%. Byul goes from a 37.05% chance to be the #8 or #9 seed down to 12.63%. Byul goes from a 28.72% chance to be the #6 or #7 seed up to 47.73%. Rain goes from a 9.13% chance to be the #5 seed up to 20.57%. Rain goes from a 24.65% chance to be the #6 seed up to 45.54%. Rain goes from a 23.6% chance to be the #7 seed up to 26.36%. Rain vs Polt goes from 15.41% up to 25.46%. herO vs sOs goes from 21.65% up to 24.06%. Classic vs Hydra goes from 11.92% up to 20.9%. Rain vs Innovation goes from 12.1% up to 19.11%. Byul vs Dream goes from 19.79% down to 16.62%. Rain vs Dream goes from 16.98% up to 22.78%. Rain vs Zest goes from 12.04% up to 19.43%. Rain vs Rogue goes from 11.38% down to 5.22%. Byul vs Polt goes from 14.6% up to 16.62%. Byul vs Zest goes from 13.83% up to 16.46%. Byul vs Innovation goes from 13.13% up to 16.33%. Byul vs Rain goes from 2.66% down to 0.31%. WCS Predictor 2015 StarLeague Season 3 Semifinals 2 Rain vs herO in in StarLeague Season 3 semifinals. Rain has the #1 Headband. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.67% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.33% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] + | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro16 Day 3 Zanster, MarineLorD, elfi, and MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. MarineLorD must win this match! elfi is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 19.6% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 4.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.81% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 7.74%, or 0% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.24% Blizzcon Chances, with a 27.59% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.86%, or 0% if they lose. Sen, Snute, Petraeus, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Snute must win this match! Sen is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 18.36% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 8.84% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.68% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 14.34%, or 0% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 19.96% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer, Hydra, Polt, and viOLet in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.33% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0% if they lose. Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.89% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. viOLet is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 22.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.09%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG, Jaedong, iaguz, and Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 16. ForGG and Jaedong must win this match! ForGG is at 11.92% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.87% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 19.58%, or 0% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 12.76% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.33%, or 0% if they lose. Jaedong is at 5.45% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.37% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 20.66%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Snute, MarineLorD, and Jaedong must win this tournament! Lilbow has a 18.6% chance to win----going from 25.24% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 8.15% if they don't. Polt has a 16.64% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 11.43% chance to win----going from 11.92% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 0.55% if they don't. Petraeus has a 11.07% chance to win----going from 0.11% to 1.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Hydra has a 9.49% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Zanster has a 8.29% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.15% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Snute has a 6.9% chance to win----going from 8.84% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 2.09% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 4.84% chance to win----going from 4.09% to 84.22% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Jaedong has a 3.94% chance to win----going from 5.45% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.58% if they don't. MaNa has a 2.48% chance to win----going from 0.24% to 9.6% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. viOLet has a 1.85% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.06% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Elazer has a 1.3% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.78% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 1.14% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.33% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. elfi has a 0.78% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 1.09% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Sen has a 0.67% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.37% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. iaguz has a 0.58% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 7.27% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Tables] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/2v08qsZ.png) | ||
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