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On September 13 2015 04:36 The_Templar wrote:
Even though Lilbow/ForGG/sOs aren't scheduled to go to Dreamhack yet, that doesn't seem like a 1 in 5000 chance. Meh.
I mean, first they have to both make the finals, then Rogue has to lose the match vs Maru (probable, but it's still only like 60% not 100%), then the 2nd placer and sOs have to be confirmed to be going to Dreamhack, then sOs and Fantasy and the WCS 2nd placer all have to basically dominate it
that's a lot of stacking probabilities, it cuts down fast, I'm just gonna guess numbers to demonstrate how quickly this stuff piles up
50% * 50% (for the WCS semifinals matches) * 60% (for Rogue losing to Maru) * 10% * 10% * 10% (for the 3 Dreamhack confirmations) * 10% (for the WCS 2nd placer to win) * 10% (for Fantasy to get 2nd) * 20% (for sOs to get top 8)
that multiplied out to 0.00003% or about 1 in 33,333
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I may just be a little out of the loop, but has there been any word on whether or not another edition of the KESPA Cup may be hitting (and if so would that be before the WCS cut off), or have those plans been abandoned?
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your Country52798 Posts
On September 13 2015 04:47 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 04:36 The_Templar wrote:
Even though Lilbow/ForGG/sOs aren't scheduled to go to Dreamhack yet, that doesn't seem like a 1 in 5000 chance. Meh. I mean, first they have to both make the finals, then Rogue has to lose the match vs Maru (probable, but it's still only like 60% not 100%), then the 2nd placer and sOs have to be confirmed to be going to Dreamhack, then sOs and Fantasy and the WCS 2nd placer all have to basically dominate it that's a lot of stacking probabilities, it cuts down fast, I'm just gonna guess numbers to demonstrate how quickly this stuff piles up 50% * 50% (for the WCS semifinals matches) * 60% (for Rogue losing to Maru) * 10% * 10% * 10% (for the 3 Dreamhack confirmations) * 10% (for the WCS 2nd placer to win) * 10% (for Fantasy to get 2nd) * 20% (for sOs to get top 8) that multiplied out to 0.00003% or about 1 in 33,333
That's 1 in 3,333,333, not 33,333 
I actually ran the numbers myself since some of yours are really bad or weird and got 1/20k. So I guess 1/5000 is fine
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On September 13 2015 05:07 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 04:47 Die4Ever wrote:On September 13 2015 04:36 The_Templar wrote:
Even though Lilbow/ForGG/sOs aren't scheduled to go to Dreamhack yet, that doesn't seem like a 1 in 5000 chance. Meh. I mean, first they have to both make the finals, then Rogue has to lose the match vs Maru (probable, but it's still only like 60% not 100%), then the 2nd placer and sOs have to be confirmed to be going to Dreamhack, then sOs and Fantasy and the WCS 2nd placer all have to basically dominate it that's a lot of stacking probabilities, it cuts down fast, I'm just gonna guess numbers to demonstrate how quickly this stuff piles up 50% * 50% (for the WCS semifinals matches) * 60% (for Rogue losing to Maru) * 10% * 10% * 10% (for the 3 Dreamhack confirmations) * 10% (for the WCS 2nd placer to win) * 10% (for Fantasy to get 2nd) * 20% (for sOs to get top 8) that multiplied out to 0.00003% or about 1 in 33,333 That's 1 in 3,333,333, not 33,333 I actually ran the numbers myself since some of yours are really bad or weird and got 1/20k. So I guess 1/5000 is fine
haha ok, but you see the point
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your Country52798 Posts
On September 13 2015 05:08 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 05:07 The_Templar wrote:On September 13 2015 04:47 Die4Ever wrote:On September 13 2015 04:36 The_Templar wrote:
Even though Lilbow/ForGG/sOs aren't scheduled to go to Dreamhack yet, that doesn't seem like a 1 in 5000 chance. Meh. I mean, first they have to both make the finals, then Rogue has to lose the match vs Maru (probable, but it's still only like 60% not 100%), then the 2nd placer and sOs have to be confirmed to be going to Dreamhack, then sOs and Fantasy and the WCS 2nd placer all have to basically dominate it that's a lot of stacking probabilities, it cuts down fast, I'm just gonna guess numbers to demonstrate how quickly this stuff piles up 50% * 50% (for the WCS semifinals matches) * 60% (for Rogue losing to Maru) * 10% * 10% * 10% (for the 3 Dreamhack confirmations) * 10% (for the WCS 2nd placer to win) * 10% (for Fantasy to get 2nd) * 20% (for sOs to get top 8) that multiplied out to 0.00003% or about 1 in 33,333 That's 1 in 3,333,333, not 33,333 I actually ran the numbers myself since some of yours are really bad or weird and got 1/20k. So I guess 1/5000 is fine haha ok, but you see the point
Yeah, in my original post I mentally gave FanTaSy/sOs/WCS person a much better chance.
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So, putting my balls on the table was the good choice. Now I'll go all-in with Lilbow, as he'll prob win it all.
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Thanks for the clarification! Two seems like a bit of an odd number (here), but it's probably for the best, taking into consideration how much it would shake things up all of a sudden.
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On September 13 2015 05:11 OtherWorld wrote:
So, putting my balls on the table was the good choice. Now I'll go all-in with Lilbow, as he'll prob win it all.
yeah! I am happy as well :D
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On September 13 2015 05:11 5izzler wrote:Thanks for the clarification! Two seems like a bit of an odd number (here), but it's probably for the best, taking into consideration how much it would shake things up all of a sudden.
There will probably still be a 3rd KeSPA Cup, it's just that the scheduling won't work out in time before Blizzcon and before they need to finalize the players qualified for it.
KeSPA Cup 3 would still need to wait to figure out the GSL finalists for their seeding, the semifinals finish sept 25th, and they also need to do their own qualifiers. They also probably don't want to run their tournament on the same weekend as the GSL finals on Oct 4th, so they probably wouldn't be able to finish until at least like Oct 10th.
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Is there KeSPA Cup S3?
EDIT: Could it possible be done the same was as HOTS CUP? Points goes to WCS 2016 if there is no time to do it before Blizzcon since they are busy with Proleague finals and much?
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On September 13 2015 05:22 WrathSCII wrote:
Is there KeSPA Cup S3?
EDIT: Could it possible be done the same was as HOTS CUP? Points goes to WCS 2016 if there is no time to do it before Blizzcon since they are busy with Proleague finals and much?
I don't have any information on that. But if they do it before Blizzcon then I kind of doubt they'll be giving 2016 WCS Points already.
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Didnt Lilbow already mention, that he won't attend Dreamhack? I thought he said it in the interview during the groupstage.
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On September 13 2015 06:18 mahrgell wrote:
Didnt Lilbow already mention, that he won't attend Dreamhack? I thought he said it in the interview during the groupstage.
That would quite surprising given that BlizzCon is at stake
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On September 13 2015 06:37 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 06:18 mahrgell wrote:
Didnt Lilbow already mention, that he won't attend Dreamhack? I thought he said it in the interview during the groupstage. That would quite surprising given that BlizzCon is at stake
I think he's pretty confident he'll win, and in that case he doesn't need to attend DH to be guaranteed Blizzcon (or does he ?). I'm sure he'll go there if somehow ForGG wins WCS, playing Blizzcon is a once in a lifetime chance even if you end up pulling off a jjakji or a San.
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your Country52798 Posts
On September 13 2015 07:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 06:37 OtherWorld wrote:On September 13 2015 06:18 mahrgell wrote:
Didnt Lilbow already mention, that he won't attend Dreamhack? I thought he said it in the interview during the groupstage. That would quite surprising given that BlizzCon is at stake I think he's pretty confident he'll win, and in that case he doesn't need to attend DH to be guaranteed Blizzcon (or does he ?). I'm sure he'll go there if somehow ForGG wins WCS, playing Blizzcon is a once in a lifetime chance even if you end up pulling off a jjakji or a San.
He is very nearly guaranteed if he wins WCS, but I think there is a super tiny chance that he could be passed?
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On September 13 2015 08:42 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 07:02 [PkF] Wire wrote:On September 13 2015 06:37 OtherWorld wrote:On September 13 2015 06:18 mahrgell wrote:
Didnt Lilbow already mention, that he won't attend Dreamhack? I thought he said it in the interview during the groupstage. That would quite surprising given that BlizzCon is at stake I think he's pretty confident he'll win, and in that case he doesn't need to attend DH to be guaranteed Blizzcon (or does he ?). I'm sure he'll go there if somehow ForGG wins WCS, playing Blizzcon is a once in a lifetime chance even if you end up pulling off a jjakji or a San. He is very nearly guaranteed if he wins WCS, but I think there is a super tiny chance that he could be passed?
Winning WCS puts him at 99.9994%, I could list some situations in which he wins WCS and doesn't qualify if anyone wants it (or anything similar? I'm bored anyways lol), will take a few minutes to simulate
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is there any scenario where Lilbow and Mana can make Top 16?
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On September 13 2015 08:54 HelpMeGetBetter wrote:
is there any scenario where Lilbow and Mana can make Top 16?
yes, these Blizzcon Qualifications don't drop Mana down to 0%, but it would be unlikely
45.01% of the time.
Lilbow qualifies for Blizzcon
This would change MaNa's chances
from 1.66% to 0.05%
34.5% of the time.
ForGG qualifies for Blizzcon
This would change MaNa's chances
from 1.66% to 0.01%
78.24% of the time.
FanTaSy qualifies for Blizzcon
This would change MaNa's chances
from 1.66% to 1.71%
Also
0.4% of the time.
MaNa gets 1st place in WCS Premier Season 3 and
MaNa gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm and
FanTaSy qualifies for Blizzcon
This would change MaNa's chances
from 1.66% to 87.38%
0.01% of the time.
MaNa gets 1st place in WCS Premier Season 3 and
MaNa gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm and
Lilbow qualifies for Blizzcon
This would change MaNa's chances
from 1.66% to 62.77%
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On September 13 2015 08:56 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2015 08:54 HelpMeGetBetter wrote:
is there any scenario where Lilbow and Mana can make Top 16? yes, these Blizzcon Qualifications don't drop Mana down to 0%, but it would be unlikely 45.01% of the time. Lilbow qualifies for Blizzcon This would change MaNa's chances from 1.66% to 0.05% 34.5% of the time. ForGG qualifies for Blizzcon This would change MaNa's chances from 1.66% to 0.01% 78.24% of the time. FanTaSy qualifies for Blizzcon This would change MaNa's chances from 1.66% to 1.71% Also 0.4% of the time. MaNa gets 1st place in WCS Premier Season 3 and MaNa gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm and FanTaSy qualifies for Blizzcon This would change MaNa's chances from 1.66% to 87.38% 0.01% of the time. MaNa gets 1st place in WCS Premier Season 3 and MaNa gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm and Lilbow qualifies for Blizzcon This would change MaNa's chances from 1.66% to 62.77%
I mean both. could two foreigners be at blizzon?
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EPT
