EPThe's very safe, even if he doesn't earn any additional points he's still at about 99.9992%
WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 43
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
he's very safe, even if he doesn't earn any additional points he's still at about 99.9992% | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24233 Posts
it's like extremely extremely unlikely. First you have to imagine Dear or Gumiho win GSL. Lol. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
It looks like almost every single time that Lilbow does not qualify, it is due to having a tie breaker match with Gumiho for the 16th/17th spot at 3625 WCS Points. Gumiho wins GSL, Rogue gets 4th or 2nd in GSL, Fantasy wins Dreamhack, and sOs gets 2nd at Dreamhack. Rogue will also tie with Lilbow and Gumiho if he gets 4th in GSL, no idea how a 3 way tie for 16th would be handled lol. There is also a chance for it to happen without the tie breaker match if the same thing happens as above except Gumiho earns some points from Dreamhack, like a 16th or 8th place. However with the current GSL scheduling, that seems impossible. Also keep in mind that sOs is not yet confirmed for Dreamhack, so he may not be going. Large dump file https://www.dropbox.com/s/wxky3jhjfd0gw73/lilbow 2015-09-13.txt?dl=0 Feel free to check my work and make sure some of those situations from the dump make sense. I might have not seen something in there, it's a big file. edit: updated dump file with fixed three-way tie breakers https://www.dropbox.com/s/8768n5x61ewie3v/lilbow 2015-09-13 2.txt?dl=0 edit 2: found another scenario Dear wins GSL and gets 8th in DH, Rogue gets 4th (should work with 2nd as well but without the tie breaker) in GSL, Fantasy wins DH, sOs gets 2nd in DH. This way Lilbow and Rogue tie at 3625 points. | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24233 Posts
 Do we have any idea if he's going to go to Stockholm to try for a better seeding ? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 14 2015 07:28 [PkF] Wire wrote: I think we can safely conclude from that that Lilbow is confirmed for Blizzcon Do we have any idea if he's going to go to Stockholm to try for a better seeding ? Rumor I've heard is that he was probably going to if he had gotten 2nd in WCS, but now he's not going and might be training in Korea for Blizzcon. edit: | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24233 Posts
On September 14 2015 07:31 Die4Ever wrote: Rumor I've heard is that he was probably going to if he had gotten 2nd in WCS, but now he's not going and might be training in Korea for Blizzcon. I think he'll pray for Life to stay at this place then, it's probably his best (unlikely) shot | ||
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
On September 14 2015 07:43 [PkF] Wire wrote: I think he'll pray for Life to stay at this place then, it's probably his best (unlikely) shot Life's gonna go into god-mode at Blizzcon again just like last year. | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24233 Posts
On September 14 2015 07:47 jalstar wrote: Life's gonna go into god-mode at Blizzcon again just like last year. I think so too but : 1- maybe Life doesn't show good form after all 2- PvZ is probably the mu where Lilbow's peak is the higher so yeah, Life isn't an opponent I would like to face as Lilbow, but I'd definitely rather have him than herO or Maru. | ||
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usopsama
6502 Posts
- herO - Classic - Bogus - Wookie - Ryul2 - sHy | ||
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Cricketer12
United States13990 Posts
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usopsama
6502 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 14 2015 08:37 Cricketer12 wrote: Lilbow, you are great and all...but you better not be the reason sOs doesnt reach blizzcon. What will you do if sOs fails a second time? | ||
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swissman777
1106 Posts
On September 14 2015 08:46 The_Templar wrote: What will you do if sOs fails a second time? Wait another year in hope of epic battle like a true fan. | ||
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phantomfive
Korea (South)404 Posts
On September 14 2015 08:56 swissman777 wrote: Wait another year in hope of epic battle like a true fan. Brilliantly said. | ||
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Naikonz
Romania65 Posts
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rotta
5595 Posts
On September 14 2015 08:45 usopsama wrote: Whoa. BaBy still has a chance if he can win DreamHack Stockholm. Please win, BaBy. The final KT vs. Jin Air match is on the 23rd (if needed), so alas it seems unlikely that players from either team go to Sthlm. Oh how I wish TY and Stats would make it somehow, but I'd rather have KT win and prepare for CJ. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 Koreans and Lilbow Tuesday, Sep 15 7:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #4351) (This is a cross post of my article on Blizzard's WCS Website) If you didn't read my previous articles, these stats are calculated by WCS Predictor, which simulates every match in every tournament that gives WCS Points millions of times. Blizzcon Chances are the chances to qualify in the top 16 for Blizzcon, as rated by WCS Predictor. Last weekend with the WCS Playoffs finishing, we had the first foreigner since Naniwa qualify (nearly 100%, more on that later) for Blizzcon! Lilbow went from 21.63% Blizzcon Chances up to now 99.9992% with winning WCS over Mana. We also had a bunch of people go down recently with a bunch of eliminations mostly due to Lilbow and the WCS Playoffs. Eliminations MaNa went down by 0.66%, going from 0.66% to 0% Petraeus went down by 0.11%, going from 0.11% to 0% GunGFuBanDa went down by 0.02%, going from 0.02% to 0% Big Drops Dark went down by 28.51%, going from 31.59% to 3.09% ForGG went down by 16.89%, going from 17.6% to 0.71% FanTaSy went down by 15.98%, going from 88.32% to 72.34% GuMiho went down by 6.25%, going from 16.84% to 10.59% HyuN went down by 4.55%, going from 15.38% to 10.82% sOs went down by 4.43%, going from 97.33% to 92.9% TY went down by 0.41%, going from 1.13% to 0.72% Stats went down by 0.25%, going from 0.57% to 0.32% Almost Guaranteed There are some situations where Lilbow doesn't make it to Blizzcon, including a possible tie or even 3 way tie, but it's very unlikely and Lilbow still has a 99.9992% chance to qualify for Blizzcon. The following things must ALL happen in order for Lilbow to not make Blizzcon. 1. Fantasy wins DreamHack Stockholm. 2. sOs gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm. sOs is not yet confirmed going to DreamHack, we may find out soon that he is not going and this would put Lilbow at 100% Blizzcon Chances. 3. Lilbow does not win any points from DreamHack Stockholm. It seems he will probably not attend. 4. Rogue gets 4th or 2nd place in GSL. 4th place with no points from DreamHack would make him tied with Lilbow. 5. EITHER: Gumiho wins GSL which would put him tied with Lilbow; OR Dear wins GSL AND gets at least 8th place in DreamHack Stockholm. Although, unless GSL changes their schedule to accomodate, it would be impossible to play in the GSL semifinals and go to DreamHack, which means Dear would not be able to pass or tie Lilbow, and Rogue would only tie with Lilbow if he gets 4th in GSL. So with those conditions, we can end up in one of these situtations. 1. No tie, Lilbow is #17 2. Tie between Lilbow and Rogue 3. Tie between Gumiho and Lilbow 4. Tie between Gumiho, Rogue, and Lilbow, with 2 winners of the tie breaker match going to Blizzcon and the single loser out Here is a dump from WCS Predictor of situations where Lilbow does not qualify for Blizzcon, often involving him losing tie breaker matches https://www.dropbox.com/s/8768n5x61ewie3v/lilbow 2015-09-13 2.txt?dl=0 Keep in mind this is all very unlikely, Lilbow has a 99.9992% chance of making Blizzcon. I know I'd be hyped for a 3 way tie breaker for Blizzcon! Here are Lilbow's current most likely first round opponents for the WCS Global Finals. Lilbow vs Maru has a 31.92% chance for the first round. Lilbow vs Life has a 30.45% chance for the first round. Lilbow vs PartinG has a 26.25% chance for the first round. Lilbow vs ByuL has a 6.05% chance for the first round. Lilbow vs Classic has a 2.43% chance for the first round. Lilbow vs Hydra has a 1.2% chance for the first round. Checkup Before GSL Quarterfinals Let's do a checkup of all the players still in the running for Blizzcon. We are now down to only 23 players above 0% Blizzcon Chances. Keep in mind that playing in the GSL semifinals and going to DreamHack Stockholm cannot happen unless GSL adjusts their schedule for players wanting to do both. Secured Players - 100% Blizzcon Chances - 12 Players herO 100% with 7,150 WCS Points. PartinG 100% with 5,850 WCS Points. Maru 100% with 5,750 WCS Points. Life 100% with 5,475 WCS Points. Hydra 100% with 5,000 WCS Points. Rain 100% with 4,925 WCS Points. Classic 100% with 4,550 WCS Points. ByuL 100% with 4,325 WCS Points. Dream 100% with 4,275 WCS Points. INnoVation 100% with 3,925 WCS Points. Polt 100% with 3,875 WCS Points. Zest 100% with 3,675 WCS Points. Nearly Secured Players - Over 95% - 2 Players Lilbow 99.99% with 3,625 WCS Points. Rogue 99.97% with 3,325 WCS Points. Over 20% - 2 Players sOs 92.9% with 3,150 WCS Points. sOs has plenty of points, he just has a few players to be worried about passing him. If Dark or Fantasy makes top 4 in DreamHack; or if ForGG, Hyun, or TY wins DreamHack; then sOs drops to around 67%. If Dear or Gumiho wins GSL, then sOs falls to about 70%. FanTaSy 72.34% with 2,900 WCS Points. If Fantasy gets 8th in DreamHack then he goes up to 82.81%, however he would still have to worry about players passing him, a 4th place would be much safer at 98.19%. If Fantasy does get 8th place and Hyun, ForGG, TY, or Dark wins DreamHack, then Fantasy falls down to about 33%. If Fantasy gets 8th in DreamHack and Gumiho or Dear wins GSL, then Fantasy falls to about 36%. Over 5% - 3 Players HyuN 10.82% with 2,525 WCS Points. To get nearly secured HyuN needs to win DreamHack Stockholm, which would put him at 97.53%. An 8th place would put him at 0%, 4th place at 20.75%, and a 2nd place at 49.41%. But if TY, Dark, Stats, ForGG, or Fantasy wins DreamHack then HyuN cannot qualify for Blizzcon. GuMiho 10.59% with 2,225 WCS Points. If Gumiho wins GSL then he is nearly secured at 99.99%. If he gets 2nd place in GSL, then he would need at least a 16th place in DreamHack to go with it to have any chance, putting him at 44.31%, but again that's unlikely due to the scheduling. If he gets 8th in GSL then the schedule should allow him the possiblity of going to DreamHack, he would need to win DreamHack to have any chance, and it would put him at 47.57%. Dear 8.52% with 2,125 WCS Points. If Dear does not go to DreamHack, then he must win GSL, which would put him at 99.97%. If Dear manages to get 4th in GSL and win DreamHack then he goes up to 95.93%. A 2nd place in both GSL and DreamHack puts Dear at 99.18%. Over 0% - 4 Players Dark 3.09% with 2,800 WCS Points. Dark is not yet confirmed as going to DreamHack, but he needs to at least get a 16th place there to have any chance, which would put him at 37.34%. 4th place would put him at 94.03%. TY 0.72% with 2,500 WCS Points. TY needs to get at least 2nd place at DreamHack, that would put him at 39.43%. 1st place would put him at 96.55%. ForGG 0.71% with 2,425 WCS Points. ForGG is in a similar spot as TY, he needs at least a 2nd place in DreamHack to get 38.65%, and a 1st place would put him at 96.44%. Stats 0.32% with 2,350 WCS Points. Stats needs to win DreamHack to have any chance at Blizzcon, this would put him at 60.63%. If Fantasy gets 8th place in DreamHack then Blizzcon is impossible for Stats. Be sure to check the website for very frequent updates, the FAQ, and the fantasy league WCS Wars! WCS Predictor 2015 To get automatically generated checkups that are constantly updated, I have created the Checkup page on WCS Predictor Also check out my post on Blizzard's own WCS website! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ||
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Edpayasugo
United Kingdom2216 Posts
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movac
Canada494 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 16 2015 07:26 movac wrote: I think you need to consider that it's impossible for someone to go to both the semi finals of GSL and dreamhack stockholm at the same time since they both take place at Sept 24-25. Therefore scenarios where a player is required to have a specific performance at both GSL and stockholm is not possible and should be removed from the percentage chance. Not sure if your calculations can take match schedules into consideration. Well GSL has adjusted their schedule before so I wouldn't say it's impossible. It would make a pretty small difference anyways, the GSL players only have about a 5% chance of going to Dreamhack in the simulation. And I cover the players who need to go to Dreamhack or not, and in the article I do point out those scenarios and the issues with scheduling, so you're not missing anything. | ||
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