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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 13 2015 08:59 HelpMeGetBetter wrote: I mean both. could two foreigners be at blizzon? Yes, you can see that the event of Lilbow qualifying for Blizzcon does not put Mana at 0% Blizzcon Chances, it instead puts him at 0.05%. The chances of having any 2 foreigners qualify for Blizzcon is 0.02%. | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 13 2015 08:59 HelpMeGetBetter wrote: I mean both. could two foreigners be at blizzon? That last one suggests yes. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
As long as it's not 0% that means it's possible. 45.01% of the time. Lilbow qualifies for Blizzcon This would change MaNa's chances from 1.66% to 0.05% So if Lilbow qualifies for Blizzcon then Mana still has a chance, though a small chance at 0.05%. If Mana wins WCS and Dreamhack, that puts him at 99.94% in general. If you assume that Lilbow does qualify and Mana wins WCS and Mana wins Dreamhack, that still puts Mana at 99.88%. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 13 2015 09:30 The_Red_Viper wrote: Damn i hope no foreigner makes it, hehe then cheer for Zanster against Lilbow lol, cause Lilbow still has a decent chance with a 2nd place ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/9MF8PmP.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
If Zanster wins WCS, then he still needs to win Dreamhack Stockholm to get up to 58.74% Blizzcon Chances, otherwise Zanster will not be making Blizzcon. Mana needs to win WCS and get at least 4th in Dreamhack to have any chance. When combined with the WCS win, a 4th in Dreamhack puts him at 70.56%, 2nd at 88.04%, and 1st at 99.95%. Lilbow can make it with a 4th in WCS and a 4th at Dreamhack, which would put him at 50.28%. A 2nd in WCS with no points from Dreamhack puts him at 16.24%. A 2nd in WCS and a 16th in Dreamhack puts him at 51.56%. A 2nd in WCS and a 4th in Dreamhack puts him at 95.88%. If ForGG loses here in the semifinals, then he needs at least a 4th in Dreamhack to have any chance, putting him at 6.8%, but a 2nd place at Dreamhack instead puts him much higher at 64.57%. If ForGG gets 2nd in WCS then he needs to win at least some points from Dreamhack, 16th place puts him at 27.9%. 2nd in WCS and 8th in Dreamhack puts him at 53.47%. 2nd in WCS and 4th in Dreamhack puts him at 80.97%. You can get more details from looking at the branches page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=branches Click on the branch you want to look at, and then click on a player to see what they need to do given the assumptions of the branch. + Show Spoiler [Likely First Round Blizzcon] + Here are the most likely first round matches of Blizzard/Global Finals for ForGG and Lilbow. (Zanster and Mana were too low to be tracked for this) ForGG ForGG vs PartinG has a 12.45% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ForGG vs Maru has a 9.32% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ForGG vs Life has a 8.3% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ForGG vs ByuL has a 1.99% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. ForGG vs Classic has a 0.91% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Lilbow Lilbow vs Life has a 14.04% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Lilbow vs PartinG has a 10.36% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Lilbow vs Maru has a 9.7% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Lilbow vs herO has a 5.9% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. Lilbow vs ByuL has a 2.85% chance for the first round of Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [If Lilbow Wins] + Biggest Winners   Lilbow went up by 54.98%, going from 45.01% to 99.99%Biggest Losers   ForGG went down by 32.85%, going from 34.49% to 1.64%  Dark went down by 7.87%, going from 10.96% to 3.09% FanTaSy went down by 6.37%, going from 78.24% to 71.86% GuMiho went down by 2.1%, going from 12.72% to 10.62% sOs went down by 1.96%, going from 94.43% to 92.47% HyuN went down by 1.82%, going from 12.6% to 10.78% MaNa went down by 1.66%, going from 1.66% to 0%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + + Show Spoiler [If ForGG Wins] + Biggest Winners ForGG went up by 65.51%, going from 34.49% to 99.99%Biggest Losers Lilbow went down by 42.82%, going from 45.01% to 2.19% Dark went down by 7.89%, going from 10.96% to 3.07% FanTaSy went down by 6.75%, going from 78.24% to 71.49% GuMiho went down by 2.09%, going from 12.72% to 10.63% sOs went down by 2.06%, going from 94.43% to 92.37% HyuN went down by 1.86%, going from 12.6% to 10.74% MaNa went down by 1.66%, going from 1.66% to 0%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + + Show Spoiler [If Mana Wins] + Biggest Winners FanTaSy went up by 15.84%, going from 78.24% to 94.07% Dark went up by 7.77%, going from 10.96% to 18.73% MaNa went up by 7.6%, going from 1.66% to 9.26% sOs went up by 5.01%, going from 94.43% to 99.44% HyuN went up by 4.46%, going from 12.6% to 17.06% GuMiho went up by 3.89%, going from 12.72% to 16.61% TY went up by 0.29%, going from 0.88% to 1.17%+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] + Biggest Losers ForGG went down by 33.47%, going from 34.49% to 1.02% Lilbow went down by 11.8%, going from 45.01% to 33.22% Zanster went down by 0.02%, going from 0.02% to 0%+ Show Spoiler [If Zanster Wins] + Biggest Winners Dark went up by 40.43%, going from 10.96% to 51.39% FanTaSy went up by 17.63%, going from 78.24% to 95.87% GuMiho went up by 7.66%, going from 12.72% to 20.38% sOs went up by 5.14%, going from 94.43% to 99.57% HyuN went up by 4.91%, going from 12.6% to 17.51% TY went up by 0.48%, going from 0.88% to 1.36% Dear went up by 0.36%, going from 8.61% to 8.97%+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] + Biggest Losers Lilbow went down by 43.57%, going from 45.01% to 1.45% ForGG went down by 31.84%, going from 34.49% to 2.65% MaNa went down by 1.66%, going from 1.66% to 0%WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Playoffs Day 2 Zanster vs Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 semifinals. Lilbow must win this match! Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 27.53% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 45.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 72.47% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 61.64%, or 1.23% if they lose. ForGG vs MaNa in in WCS Premier Season 3 semifinals. ForGG and MaNa must win this match! ForGG is at 34.49% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 56.27%, or 0.92% if they lose. MaNa is at 1.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 4.21%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG must win this tournament! Lilbow has a 38.18% chance to win----going from 45.01% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 11.04% if they don't. ForGG has a 33.41% chance to win----going from 34.49% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.63% if they don't. MaNa has a 17.9% chance to win----going from 1.66% to 9.26% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Zanster has a 10.52% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.14% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/FkUWnAJ.png) | ||
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Wrath
3174 Posts
On September 13 2015 09:30 The_Red_Viper wrote: Damn i hope no foreigner makes it, hehe Same... It is horrible for Blizzcon if they made it through, it is bad enough with having Polt and Hydra there. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On September 13 2015 13:23 WrathSCII wrote: Same... It is horrible for Blizzcon if they made it through, it is bad enough with having Polt and Hydra there. Yeah, because Polt and other "runners" like MMA or Taeja totally got 0-3'd in the first round last year -.-" | ||
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sharkie
Austria18509 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 13 2015 18:07 sharkie wrote: Did I gain no points for Zanster because its impossible for him to qualify? You can actually gain points from players who cannot qualify, Zanster has a slight chance anyways. It's because WCS Predictor expected him to beat GungFuBanda and expects him to lose to Lilbow. If Zanster beats Lilbow then you'll gain a those points (I think it's 350 points, idk Proleague is on lol). The end of the last tournament for a player can get weird because of this because of the way medians work. ForGG's median points right now is expecting him to finish in 2nd place. Median works in steps according to what the possibilities are, and there aren't a lot of possibilities left for these players and getting points from Dreamhack isn't very likely unless they at least confirm their attendance. Not a lot of possibilities means not a lot of steps for the median. | ||
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shin ken
Germany612 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
On September 13 2015 20:45 shin ken wrote: If Lilbow wins WCS Season 3 and Mana gets second and Mana gets to the Dreamhack finals, both have a good chance to go to Blizzcon doesn't they? No, Mana has 0% chance if he doesn't win WCS | ||
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shin ken
Germany612 Posts
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[PkF] Wire
France24233 Posts
On September 13 2015 15:47 OtherWorld wrote: Yeah, because Polt and other "runners" like MMA or Taeja totally got 0-3'd in the first round last year -.-" We'll see how Polt and Hydra do this year, but if they play like they did in this last season they'll get trashed. I'm confident they'll prepare well though, Polt especially. That guy is just too smart. It's hard to compare the situations of Polt, Hydra and Lilbow/ForGG to the likes of MMA, Taeja, MC, Polt from last year because in the previous system WCS AM and WCS EU were full of Koreans, so they were insanely competitive, less than WCS KR, but still very hard. With the region lock (that was needed to sustain a foreign scene) the level of WCS has dropped quite a bit, that's great for foreign hype and all, but let's not lie to ourselves. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Finals + Show Spoiler [Changes From Semifinals] + Biggest Winners Lilbow went up by 33.91%, going from 45.01% to 78.93% FanTaSy went up by 3.21%, going from 78.24% to 81.45% MaNa went up by 2.34%, going from 1.66% to 3.99% sOs went up by 1.03%, going from 94.43% to 95.46% HyuN went up by 0.78%, going from 12.6% to 13.38% Dear went up by 0.04%, going from 8.61% to 8.65%Biggest Losers ForGG went down by 33.66%, going from 34.49% to 0.83% Dark went down by 7.38%, going from 10.96% to 3.59% GuMiho went down by 0.26%, going from 12.72% to 12.46% Zanster went down by 0.02%, going from 0.02% to 0% MaNa vs Lilbow in in WCS Premier Season 3 finals. MaNa must win this match! MaNa is at 3.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 41.75% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.57%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 78.92% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.25% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 49.5% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [If Mana Wins] + 3.08% of the time. MaNa gets 1st place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MaNa's chances from 9.57% to 99.93% 2.99% of the time. MaNa gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MaNa's chances from 9.57% to 87.8% 5.52% of the time. MaNa gets 4th place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MaNa's chances from 9.57% to 69.97% 9.69% of the time. MaNa gets 8th place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MaNa's chances from 9.57% to 0% 15.83% of the time. MaNa gets 16th place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MaNa's chances from 9.57% to 0% 23.82% of the time. MaNa gets 32nd place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MaNa's chances from 9.57% to 0% 0.59% of the time. Lilbow gets 1st place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Lilbow's chances from 49.5% to 100 % 0.4% of the time. Lilbow gets 2nd place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Lilbow's chances from 49.5% to 100 % 0.7% of the time. Lilbow gets 4th place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Lilbow's chances from 49.5% to 99.56% 1.09% of the time. Lilbow gets 8th place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Lilbow's chances from 49.5% to 90.21% 1.63% of the time. Lilbow gets 16th place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Lilbow's chances from 49.5% to 80.56% 2.21% of the time. Lilbow gets 32nd place in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Lilbow's chances from 49.5% to 47.69% | ||
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
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[PkF] Wire
France24233 Posts
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sharkie
Austria18509 Posts
From 13% to 99,99% - that is impressive | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17684 Posts
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HelpMeGetBetter
United States764 Posts
On September 14 2015 05:09 Die4Ever wrote: I'm working on fixing up my tie breaker code to make it perfectly accurate, then I'll output some specific scenarios where Lilbow doesn't qualify for Blizzcon What??????? thats possible?  | ||
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