EPTWCS Predictor 2015 - Page 37
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hoticee
14 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Jaedong has a bit more leniency here, partly because he's also in MSI Masters. With a WCS win he'd go up to 98.65% chances. A 2nd place would put him at a 27.24%, and with a 4th at MSI he'd be at 47.02%. A WCS 2nd place along with a 4th at Dreamhack Stockholm and he'd go up to 69.6%. Even with a 4th place in WCS he can still do it with a 6.31% chance, but below 4th place would mean less than 2% chances. A 4th place in WCS with a win at Dreamhack puts him at 74.41%, if he instead wins MSI then he goes up to 55.2%. A 4th place at WCS with a 2nd at MSI and a 4th at Dreamhack would put him at 73.84%. MSI seems to help Jaedong much less than Dreamhack since he's already confirmed to be attending MSI, so his expected placements there are already naturally a bigger part of his overall chances. WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro32 Group C + Show Spoiler [Changes During WCS Ro32 Week 1] + Biggest Winners   Dark went up by 2.8%, going from 61.07% to 63.87% Rogue went up by 2.16%, going from 86.94% to 89.09%  FanTaSy went up by 1.86%, going from 85.92% to 87.79% TY went up by 1.36%, going from 16.77% to 18.14%  sOs went up by 1.28%, going from 32.14% to 33.41% HyuN went up by 1.21%, going from 10.71% to 11.93% Petraeus went up by 0.66%, going from 0.97% to 1.63%+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] + GuMiho went up by 0.39%, going from 3.89% to 4.28% Flash went up by 0.23%, going from 0.16% to 0.39% Stats went up by 0.22%, going from 3.23% to 3.45% MyuNgSiK went up by 0.13%, going from 8.16% to 8.29% INnoVation went up by 0.1%, going from 99.89% to 99.99%Biggest Losers Curious went down by 6.87%, going from 7.38% to 0.51% ForGG went down by 1.32%, going from 12.05% to 10.73% Harstem went down by 0.84%, going from 0.84% to 0.01% Lilbow went down by 0.83%, going from 13.69% to 12.85% Bbyong went down by 0.45%, going from 5.56% to 5.11% MarineLorD went down by 0.43%, going from 3.34% to 2.91% ShoWTimE went down by 0.35%, going from 2.48% to 2.13%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + Chances of 1+ foreigners went from 30.12% down to 27.83% Chances of 2+ foreigners went from 0.74% down to 0.65% ShoWTimE, HeRoMaRinE, Jaedong, and  Sen in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. ShoWTimE and Jaedong must win this match! ShoWTimE is at 2.13% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 3.79%, or 0.01% if they lose. Jaedong is at 6.82% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.93% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 11.71%, or 0.1% if they lose. HeRoMaRinE is at 0.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.97% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.08%, or 0% if they lose. Sen is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 35.84% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro32 Groups] +  MaSa,  iaguz, MarineLorD, and Has in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. MarineLorD must win this match! MaSa is at 0.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.4% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.06%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 2.91% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.04% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 5.1%, or 0.01% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.16%, or 0% if they lose. Has is at 0.17% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.06% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.4%, or 0.01% if they lose.  Shana, Lilbow,  neeb, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Lilbow must win this match! Shana is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 30.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. neeb is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 34.15% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 12.85% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.35% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 17.96%, or 0.13% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.15% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.09%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG, Kane,  Zanster, and iAsonu in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. ForGG must win this match! ForGG is at 10.73% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.55%, or 0.07% if they lose. Zanster is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0% if they lose. Kane is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.07% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.47%, or 0.01% if they lose. iAsonu is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.15% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. Hitman,  Elazer, Jim, and  Snute in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Snute must win this match! Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Jim is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.28% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 6.08% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.96%, or 0.02% if they lose. viOLet, MaNa, TLO, and XiGua in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. TLO must win this match! viOLet is at 0.35% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.09% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.6%, or 0.01% if they lose. TLO is at 1.39% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.38% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.99%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.34% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.79% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.5%, or 0.01% if they lose. XiGua is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.73% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Petraeus, Snute, Jaedong, MarineLorD, ShoWTimE, TLO, Kane, and Has must win this tournament! Hydra has a 25.15% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Polt has a 13.22% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. ForGG has a 7.62% chance to win----going from 10.73% to 99.91% if they get 1st, or 3.37% if they don't. Lilbow has a 7.59% chance to win----going from 12.85% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 5.69% if they don't. Petraeus has a 7.02% chance to win----going from 1.63% to 22.6% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Snute has a 4.76% chance to win----going from 6.08% to 99.6% if they get 1st, or 1.41% if they don't. Jaedong has a 4.74% chance to win----going from 6.82% to 98.65% if they get 1st, or 2.25% if they don't. MaNa has a 3.71% chance to win----going from 0.34% to 9.05% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 3.54% chance to win----going from 2.91% to 79.51% if they get 1st, or 0.1% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.96% chance to win----going from 0.35% to 11.67% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. ShoWTimE has a 2.65% chance to win----going from 2.13% to 77.82% if they get 1st, or 0.07% if they don't. MaSa has a 2.38% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 1.46% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. HeRoMaRinE has a 2.26% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 1.73% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Zanster has a 2.07% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.89% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.  elfi has a 2.02% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 1.7% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 1.68% chance to win----going from 0.06% to 3.3% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Jim has a 1.05% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 2.18% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TLO has a 0.98% chance to win----going from 1.39% to 99.57% if they get 1st, or 0.41% if they don't. iaguz has a 0.76% chance to win----going from 0.07% to 8.79% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.74% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.78% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Kane has a 0.65% chance to win----going from 0.18% to 27.14% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iAsonu has a 0.58% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 2.59% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sen has a 0.58% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 4.1% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Has has a 0.44% chance to win----going from 0.17% to 37.93% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hitman has a 0.41% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.2% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. neeb has a 0.28% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.17% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. XiGua has a 0.08% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 1.03% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Shana has a 0.05% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.06% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/OBgRhoO.png) Branches | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
If MarineLord does get 1st place then there are a few things that can interfere with his Blizzcon Chances. Stats winning DreamHack Stockholm, Myungsik winning SSL, TY winning SSL, or Bbyong winning GSL would put MarineLord below 60% chances. sOs getting 2nd or 4th in GSL, Solar winning GSL, or soO winning GSL would also put MarineLord around 60% chances. We also have Has in this group, with 825 WCS Points. If Has gets 2nd place then he only goes to 0.31% with 1975 points, but if he gets 1st then he shoots up to 37.64% with 2725 points. Even if he does win WCS, he'd still need about 250 more points which would be an 8th place at Dreamhack, the 125 points from a 16th place would help a bit but he wouldn't be very secure. WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro32 Group D + Show Spoiler [Changes During WCS Ro32 Week 1] + Biggest Winners Jaedong went up by 5.04%, going from 7.11% to 12.15% Dark went up by 2.03%, going from 61.07% to 63.1% Rogue went up by 1.72%, going from 86.94% to 88.66% FanTaSy went up by 1.33%, going from 85.92% to 87.26% TY went up by 1.13%, going from 16.77% to 17.91% HyuN went up by 0.93%, going from 10.71% to 11.64% sOs went up by 0.67%, going from 32.14% to 32.81%+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] + Petraeus went up by 0.62%, going from 0.97% to 1.59% GuMiho went up by 0.32%, going from 3.89% to 4.21% Flash went up by 0.22%, going from 0.16% to 0.38% Stats went up by 0.13%, going from 3.23% to 3.36% INnoVation went up by 0.1%, going from 99.89% to 99.99%Biggest Losers Curious went down by 6.89%, going from 7.38% to 0.49% ShoWTimE went down by 2.48%, going from 2.48% to 0.01% ForGG went down by 1.53%, going from 12.05% to 10.52% Harstem went down by 0.84%, going from 0.84% to 0.01% Bbyong went down by 0.48%, going from 5.56% to 5.08% soO went down by 0.46%, going from 13.11% to 12.65% Snute went down by 0.44%, going from 6.41% to 5.97%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + MarineLorD went down by 0.3%, going from 3.34% to 3.04% Lilbow went down by 0.26%, going from 13.69% to 13.42% Solar went down by 0.21%, going from 10.63% to 10.42%Chances of 1+ foreigners went from 30.12% down to 26.33% Chances of 2+ foreigners went from 0.74% down to 0.56% MaSa, iaguz, MarineLorD, and Has in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. MarineLorD must win this match! MaSa is at 0.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.4% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.06%, or 0% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 3.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.06% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 5.33%, or 0.01% if they lose. iaguz is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.47% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.16%, or 0% if they lose. Has is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.07% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.43%, or 0.01% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro32 Groups] + Shana, Lilbow, neeb, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Lilbow must win this match! Shana is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 30.4% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. neeb is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 34.13% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 13.42% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.35% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 18.76%, or 0.12% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.12% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.09%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG, Kane, Zanster, and iAsonu in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. ForGG must win this match! ForGG is at 10.52% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.68% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.22%, or 0.07% if they lose. Zanster is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.05% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0% if they lose. Kane is at 0.17% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.13% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.44%, or 0.01% if they lose. iAsonu is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.15% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. Hitman, Elazer, Jim, and Snute in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Snute must win this match! Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.71% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Jim is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.28% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 5.97% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.75% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.8%, or 0.02% if they lose. viOLet, MaNa, TLO, and XiGua in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. TLO must win this match! viOLet is at 0.35% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.06% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.59%, or 0.01% if they lose. TLO is at 1.39% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.41% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.99%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.36% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.52%, or 0.01% if they lose. XiGua is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.75% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + Jaedong, ForGG, Petraeus, Snute, MarineLorD, TLO, Kane, and Has must win this tournament! Hydra has a 24.78% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Polt has a 12.77% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Jaedong has a 8.52% chance to win----going from 12.15% to 98.63% if they get 1st, or 4.09% if they don't. Lilbow has a 8.1% chance to win----going from 13.42% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 5.79% if they don't. ForGG has a 7.5% chance to win----going from 10.52% to 99.91% if they get 1st, or 3.27% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Petraeus has a 6.9% chance to win----going from 1.59% to 22.4% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't. Snute has a 4.68% chance to win----going from 5.97% to 99.59% if they get 1st, or 1.37% if they don't. MaNa has a 3.93% chance to win----going from 0.36% to 8.9% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 3.72% chance to win----going from 3.04% to 79.23% if they get 1st, or 0.1% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.94% chance to win----going from 0.35% to 11.58% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MaSa has a 2.49% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 1.44% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Zanster has a 2.11% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.9% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. elfi has a 2.09% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 1.65% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 1.7% chance to win----going from 0.06% to 3.29% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sen has a 1.53% chance to win----going from 0.06% to 3.97% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Jim has a 1.11% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 2.15% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TLO has a 0.99% chance to win----going from 1.39% to 99.59% if they get 1st, or 0.41% if they don't. iaguz has a 0.82% chance to win----going from 0.07% to 8.43% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.73% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.73% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Kane has a 0.61% chance to win----going from 0.17% to 26.69% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iAsonu has a 0.59% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 2.59% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Has has a 0.47% chance to win----going from 0.18% to 37.64% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hitman has a 0.46% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.18% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. neeb has a 0.31% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.15% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. XiGua has a 0.08% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 1.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Shana has a 0.06% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.07% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/URtYHxU.png) Branches | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
I now made them simply "Estimated Representatives", which is the same data but now it's presented on a 0-16 scale. For example, Korea has 15.71 estimated representatives, Protoss has 5.62, and SKT T1 has 3.76. Keep in mind this is not a perfect statistic, the simulation does not count these as it goes, and these are estimated after the fact, however I still think they're a pretty good indicator. These are the graphs http://sc2.4ever.tv/#summed-percentages-section http://sc2.4ever.tv/#foreigner-hope-section | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
While Fantasy isn't secure yet, he actually is up to a pretty good 64.25% AFK Chances. If he loses here then he goes down to 75.34% Blizzcon Chances, but if he advances just one round and loses in the round of 16 then that shoots him up to 93.6%, and an 8th place would put him up at 98.98%. If he does lose here and gets 8th at DreamHack Stockholm then he goes up to 94.5%. Dear on the other hand, really needs a strong placement in GSL, an 8th place would only put him at 1.42%, a 4th would be 5.05%, a 2nd up to 33.76%, and 1st place would put him at 99.95%. If Dear gets 4th in GSL, then a 2nd place in Dreamhack Stockholm would put him at 73.29%, but the 4th in GSL with a 1st at Dreamhack would mean 94.92%. A 2nd place in GSL along with a 4th in Dreamhack would put him at 93.36%. WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro32 Group F Dear, FanTaSy, ByuL, and Sleep in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 32. Dear must win this match! Dear is at 3.25% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 6.09%, or 0.05% if they lose. ByuL is at 99.62% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.99% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.95%, or 99.07% if they lose. FanTaSy is at 87.47% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.57% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 96.4%, or 75.34% if they lose. Sleep is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 27.53% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro32 Groups] + PartinG, MMA, Dark, and sKyHigh in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 32. MMA must win this match! Dark has the #3 Headband. PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 72.43% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Dark is at 63.05% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 80.58%, or 28.25% if they lose. MMA is at 0.85% Blizzcon Chances, with a 35.46% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.37%, or 0.01% if they lose. sKyHigh is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 25.61% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Rogue, soO, Hurricane, and GuMiho in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 32. soO and GuMiho must win this match! This is the Group of Death! Rogue is at 88.91% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.52% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 97.68%, or 79.96% if they lose. Hurricane is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.82% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. soO is at 12.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.95% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 19.45%, or 0.37% if they lose. GuMiho is at 4.58% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.71% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.26%, or 0.13% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Solar, Bbyong, GuMiho, Dear, and MMA must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 14.9% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Rain has a 8.61% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Classic has a 8.01% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Maru has a 7.67% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Zest has a 6.79% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Solar has a 6.75% chance to win----going from 9.14% to 95.63% if they get 1st, or 2.87% if they don't. herO has a 6.59% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. soO has a 5.84% chance to win----going from 12.01% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 6.54% if they don't. PartinG has a 5.26% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. sOs has a 4.96% chance to win----going from 32.31% to 100% if they get 1st, or 28.77% if they don't. Dark has a 4.69% chance to win----going from 63.05% to 100% if they get 1st, or 61.23% if they don't. Bbyong has a 4.22% chance to win----going from 4.93% to 97.54% if they get 1st, or 0.85% if they don't. Flash has a 3.32% chance to win----going from 0.4% to 11.55% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. ByuL has a 2.67% chance to win----going from 99.62% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.6% if they don't. FanTaSy has a 2.65% chance to win----going from 87.47% to 100% if they get 1st, or 87.13% if they don't. Rogue has a 2.12% chance to win----going from 88.91% to 100% if they get 1st, or 88.67% if they don't. GuMiho has a 1.92% chance to win----going from 4.58% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 2.71% if they don't. Dear has a 1.77% chance to win----going from 3.25% to 99.95% if they get 1st, or 1.5% if they don't. Hurricane has a 0.54% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 3.73% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MMA has a 0.53% chance to win----going from 0.85% to 99.49% if they get 1st, or 0.32% if they don't. sKyHigh has a 0.13% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 2.76% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sleep has a 0.06% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.17% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/PeuSYQM.png) Branches | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Now if he gets 8th at DreamHack Stockholm then he goes up to 95.65%, 32nd place would be 78.82%, 16th would be 89.59%, 4th would be 97.56%, 2nd 99.31%, 1st 99.99%. If you take out the placeholder tournaments then a 1st place at Dreamhack would put him at 100%. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
TY has a pretty complicated situation being at 2200 points. Even if he loses here, he'll still get over 80% if he wins Dreamhack Stockholm or any other tournament offering 750 points to the winner if one is announced. A 4th place in SSL would mean that he'd only need a 2nd place at Dreamhack to get over 85%, and a 2nd place here would mean he just needs a 16th place in Dreamhack to get over 82%. If he wants to shoot for over 90% that'd mean 2nd in SSL and 8th in Dreamhack, 4th in SSL and 1st in Dreamhack, or if he loses here then he'd need a combination of about 1050 points from Dreamhack and another unannounced tournament. Myungsik is currently at 2000 WCS Points. If he loses here then he's way down to 0.46%. To get over 90% he's going to need a 4th here and a win at Dreamhack, or win SSL. A 2nd here and a 2nd at Dreamhack isn't quite enough for 90% but should put him over 80%. Rogue is currently at 2825 points and also currently in the GSL round of 32 vs soO, Hurricane, and Gumiho. He needs to be careful not to lose in this and GSL. If he loses in both then he goes down to 67.27%. However a win in one and a loss in the other would put him over 98% either way. A win in both would put him at 99.87%. WCS Predictor 2015 StarLeague Season 3 Quarterfinals Day 1 TY vs Zest in in StarLeague Season 3 quarterfinals. TY must win this match! TY is at 17.71% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 31.96%, or 2.72% if they lose. Zest is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.74% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. INnoVation vs ByuL in in StarLeague Season 3 quarterfinals. INnoVation has the #2 Headband. INnoVation is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.42% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.99% if they lose. ByuL is at 99.97% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.58% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.96% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Quarterfinals Day 2] + Rogue vs Rain in in StarLeague Season 3 quarterfinals. Rain has the #1 Headband. Rogue is at 89.21% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.35%, or 82.92% if they lose. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.74% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. herO vs MyuNgSiK in in StarLeague Season 3 quarterfinals. MyuNgSiK must win this match! herO has the #4 Headband. herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.22% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. MyuNgSiK is at 8.19% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 19.4%, or 0.46% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] + MyuNgSiK must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 23.73% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Rain has a 17.9% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. herO has a 14.54% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Zest has a 12.46% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. ByuL has a 9.23% chance to win----going from 99.97% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't. TY has a 8.54% chance to win----going from 17.71% to 99.96% if they get 1st, or 10.03% if they don't. Rogue has a 8.18% chance to win----going from 89.21% to 100% if they get 1st, or 88.24% if they don't. MyuNgSiK has a 5.43% chance to win----going from 8.19% to 99.62% if they get 1st, or 2.94% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [SSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ioplVSF.png) Branches | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
On August 20 2015 23:13 OtherWorld wrote: Zest's loss is throwing away days and days of daily trade efforts, -400 points at once hurts ): I have Innovation lol  | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
Should have believed in the ByuLwa (; + Show Spoiler + Why did I sold him yesterday WHY? -.-" | ||
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Dingodile
4133 Posts
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On August 21 2015 02:59 Dingodile wrote: only lilbow has a chance to blizzcon from now? Snute's got a decent chance. I can definitely see him in the Ro16 unless Hitman and Jim knock him out. I think luck of the draw will have to do with it as well. Like if Lilbow (or Snute or MLord) gets seeded so that he has to play only koreans on the way to the finals he's got no chance. If he's up against a soft bracket and makes second, his chances are going to skyrocket. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Dark has a huge spread of going up to 79.35% if he wins or down to 23.52% if he loses here. With 2600 WCS Points already he has 11.37% AFK Chances, he only needs an 8th place in GSL to get over 90% Blizzcon Chances, and a 16th place would still put him at a decent 59.88%. If Dark loses in this group and gets a 16th in Dreamhack then he goes to 35.56%, while a loss here and a 4th place in Dreamhack would put him at 89.3%. If he gets 16th in GSL and 16th in Dreamhack that'd be 87.27%. Meanwhile MMA, last Blizzcon's runner-up, is in a much tougher spot with just 1475 WCS Points and 0.78% Blizzcon Chances. If MMA gets 4th in GSL then he still only ends up at 2.19%, a 2nd would be 13.73%, and taking home the gold would put him at 99.42%. If MMA gets 2nd in GSL and 8th in Dreamhack then he goes up to 52.26%, but with a 4th at Dreamhack that quickly goes up to 86.92%. An 8th place in GSL and a win at Dreamhack would put him at 24.54% Blizzcon Chances. WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro32 Group G sKyHigh, Dark, MMA, and PartinG in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 32. MMA must win this match! Dark has the #3 Headband. sKyHigh is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 25.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. MMA is at 0.78% Blizzcon Chances, with a 35.68% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.16%, or 0.01% if they lose. Dark is at 60.71% Blizzcon Chances, with a 66.62% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 79.35%, or 23.52% if they lose. PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 72.44% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Group H] + Rogue, soO, Hurricane, and GuMiho in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 32. soO and GuMiho must win this match! This is the Group of Death! Rogue is at 87.36% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.75% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 98.44%, or 75.93% if they lose. Hurricane is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.96% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose. soO is at 12.25% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.35% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 19.76%, or 0.33% if they lose. GuMiho is at 3.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.94% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.22%, or 0.11% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Solar, Bbyong, Dear, GuMiho, and MMA must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 14.83% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.98% if they don't. Rain has a 8.42% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Classic has a 8.01% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Maru has a 7.48% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Zest has a 7.31% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Solar has a 7.01% chance to win----going from 9.33% to 97.01% if they get 1st, or 2.72% if they don't. herO has a 6.39% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. soO has a 5.96% chance to win----going from 12.25% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 6.69% if they don't. PartinG has a 5.08% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. sOs has a 4.88% chance to win----going from 30.83% to 100% if they get 1st, or 27.28% if they don't. Dark has a 4.66% chance to win----going from 60.71% to 100% if they get 1st, or 58.79% if they don't. ByuL has a 4.3% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Bbyong has a 4.08% chance to win----going from 4.71% to 97.78% if they get 1st, or 0.75% if they don't. Dear has a 3.34% chance to win----going from 5.69% to 99.88% if they get 1st, or 2.43% if they don't. Flash has a 3.22% chance to win----going from 0.34% to 10.3% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Rogue has a 2.11% chance to win----going from 87.36% to 100% if they get 1st, or 87.08% if they don't. GuMiho has a 1.75% chance to win----going from 3.99% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 2.29% if they don't. Hurricane has a 0.53% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 3.32% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MMA has a 0.51% chance to win----going from 0.78% to 99.42% if they get 1st, or 0.27% if they don't. sKyHigh has a 0.12% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 2.41% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/uaKjEaR.png) Branches | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Lilbow can realistically make it if he gets another 2nd place, putting him at 40.35% chances, combine with even just a 16th place at DreamHack would put him at 77.96% or an 8th at Dreamhack giving him 90.14%. A 1st place in WCS would put him way up at 99.98%. A 4th in WCS would only put him at 6.79% requiring a matching 4th place in Dreamhack to get to 54.74% or with a 2nd in Dreamhack instead would be 81.8%. WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro32 Group E Shana, Lilbow, neeb, and GunGFuBanDa in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Lilbow must win this match! Shana is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.58% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. neeb is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 35.02% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Lilbow is at 11.76% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 16.51%, or 0.09% if they lose. GunGFuBanDa is at 0.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 65.32% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Groups] + iAsonu, Zanster, Kane, and ForGG in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. ForGG must win this match! iAsonu is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.57% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0% if they lose. Kane is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.25%, or 0.01% if they lose. Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.88% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG is at 9.56% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 14.73%, or 0.05% if they lose. Hitman, Elazer, Jim, and Snute in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Snute must win this match! Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.94% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Jim is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.73% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.03% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 5.44% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.3% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.08%, or 0.01% if they lose. viOLet, MaNa, TLO, and XiGua in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. TLO must win this match! viOLet is at 0.25% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.32% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.43%, or 0% if they lose. TLO is at 1.25% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.67%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.28% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.98% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.42%, or 0.01% if they lose. XiGua is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.92% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + Jaedong, Lilbow, ForGG, MarineLorD, Snute, and TLO must win this tournament! Hydra has a 21.99% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Polt has a 11.9% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Jaedong has a 10.62% chance to win----going from 13.9% to 98.71% if they get 1st, or 3.82% if they don't. Lilbow has a 7.91% chance to win----going from 11.76% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 4.18% if they don't. ForGG has a 7.55% chance to win----going from 9.56% to 99.85% if they get 1st, or 2.19% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Petraeus has a 7.47% chance to win----going from 1.4% to 18.32% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 6.49% chance to win----going from 5.51% to 82.85% if they get 1st, or 0.14% if they don't. Snute has a 4.61% chance to win----going from 5.44% to 99.42% if they get 1st, or 0.9% if they don't. MaNa has a 4.03% chance to win----going from 0.28% to 6.94% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.73% chance to win----going from 0.25% to 8.91% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. elfi has a 2.15% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 1.27% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iaguz has a 2.14% chance to win----going from 0.14% to 6.59% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sen has a 1.83% chance to win----going from 0.05% to 2.69% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Zanster has a 1.83% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.59% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 1.74% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 2.46% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Jim has a 1.16% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.68% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TLO has a 1.01% chance to win----going from 1.25% to 99.39% if they get 1st, or 0.25% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.72% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.56% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Kane has a 0.62% chance to win----going from 0.1% to 15.16% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iAsonu has a 0.61% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 1.77% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hitman has a 0.45% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.11% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. neeb has a 0.32% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.1% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. XiGua has a 0.08% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.59% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Shana has a 0.04% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bFcAZva.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Rogue currently sits at 84.28% Blizzcon Chances with 2825 WCS Points and 40.08% AFK Chances. Rogue is currently in both GSL and SSL, and could still attend Dreamhack Stockholm. If he loses both this group and his upcoming quarterfinals match in SSL against Rain then he'd fall down to 54.09%. If he gets 16th in GSL and 8th in SSL, then he still goes up to a strong 94.39%. If he gets 32nd in GSL and 4th in SSL, then he goes up to 95.93%, so as long as he advances another round in either tournament then he's looking really good to go to Blizzcon. soO is only at 11.51% Blizzcon Chances with 1800 WCS Points. A 4th in GSL for soO would only put him at 11.34%, a 2nd would be 77.33%, and a 1st would be 99.99%. A 2nd in GSL and an 8th in Dreamhack Stockholm would bring him up to 95.03%, and a 2nd in Dreamhack with a 4th in GSL would mean 88.54% Blizzcon Chances. Gumiho is at 3.32% Blizzcon Chances and 1725 WCS Points. A 4th place in GSL would put him at 7.35%, a 2nd 43.19%, and a 1st at 99.99%. A 4th in GSL with a 2nd at Dreamhack Stockholm would bring him up to 83.26%, or an 8th in GSL and a win in Dreamhack would put him at 76.66%. WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 3 Ro32 Group H Rogue, soO, Hurricane, and GuMiho in in GSL Code S Season 3 round of 32. soO and GuMiho must win this match! This is the Group of Death! Rogue is at 84.28% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.27% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 97.79%, or 70.62% if they lose. Hurricane is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.42% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. soO is at 11.51% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.81% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 18.45%, or 0.28% if they lose. GuMiho is at 3.32% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 6.89%, or 0.09% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] + Solar, Bbyong, Dear, and GuMiho must win this tournament! INnoVation has a 13.11% chance to win----going from 99.98% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't. Rain has a 8.09% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Solar has a 7.53% chance to win----going from 9.56% to 96.16% if they get 1st, or 2.51% if they don't. Classic has a 7.53% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Zest has a 7.33% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Dark has a 7.09% chance to win----going from 78.42% to 100% if they get 1st, or 76.78% if they don't. Maru has a 6.67% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. PartinG has a 6.6% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. herO has a 6.17% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. soO has a 5.86% chance to win----going from 11.51% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 6.01% if they don't. sOs has a 4.66% chance to win----going from 27.33% to 100% if they get 1st, or 23.78% if they don't. ByuL has a 4.57% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Bbyong has a 3.97% chance to win----going from 4.47% to 97.15% if they get 1st, or 0.64% if they don't. Dear has a 3.86% chance to win----going from 5.8% to 99.83% if they get 1st, or 2.03% if they don't. Flash has a 3.03% chance to win----going from 0.29% to 9.2% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Rogue has a 1.85% chance to win----going from 84.28% to 100% if they get 1st, or 83.98% if they don't. GuMiho has a 1.55% chance to win----going from 3.32% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 1.8% if they don't. Hurricane has a 0.53% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 2.9% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [GSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/1YbweQ0.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro32 Group F + Show Spoiler [Changes During WCS Ro32 Week 2] + Biggest Winners Rogue went up by 13.2%, going from 84.76% to 97.96% Lilbow went up by 3.55%, going from 11.76% to 15.31% GuMiho went up by 3.14%, going from 3.38% to 6.52% Dear went up by 0.17%, going from 5.73% to 5.9%Biggest Losers soO went down by 11.34%, going from 11.62% to 0.28% FanTaSy went down by 3.91%, going from 71.6% to 67.69% TY went down by 1.01%, going from 29.35% to 28.34% Dark went down by 0.77%, going from 78.98% to 78.22% Jaedong went down by 0.76%, going from 13.9% to 13.14% HyuN went down by 0.56%, going from 10.41% to 9.85% MarineLorD went down by 0.45%, going from 5.5% to 5.05%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + iAsonu, Zanster, Kane, and ForGG in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. ForGG must win this match! iAsonu is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.59% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0% if they lose. Kane is at 0.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.24%, or 0.01% if they lose. Zanster is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.9% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. ForGG is at 9.14% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.74% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 14.09%, or 0.05% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro32 Groups] + Hitman, Elazer, Jim, and Snute in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Snute must win this match! Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.99% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Jim is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.04% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 5.3% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.28% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 7.87%, or 0.02% if they lose. viOLet, MaNa, TLO, and XiGua in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. TLO must win this match! viOLet is at 0.24% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.33% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.41%, or 0.01% if they lose. TLO is at 1.16% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.49%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.27% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.98% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.4%, or 0.01% if they lose. XiGua is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + Jaedong, ForGG, MarineLorD, Snute, and TLO must win this tournament! Hydra has a 21.3% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Polt has a 11.72% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Lilbow has a 10.44% chance to win----going from 15.31% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 5.44% if they don't. Jaedong has a 10.15% chance to win----going from 13.14% to 98.31% if they get 1st, or 3.52% if they don't. ForGG has a 7.22% chance to win----going from 9.14% to 99.81% if they get 1st, or 2.08% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Petraeus has a 7.14% chance to win----going from 1.31% to 17.95% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 6.18% chance to win----going from 5.05% to 79.71% if they get 1st, or 0.13% if they don't. Snute has a 4.51% chance to win----going from 5.3% to 99.29% if they get 1st, or 0.86% if they don't. MaNa has a 3.8% chance to win----going from 0.27% to 7.1% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 3.2% chance to win----going from 0.08% to 2.57% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.6% chance to win----going from 0.24% to 8.97% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. elfi has a 1.99% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 1.26% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iaguz has a 1.99% chance to win----going from 0.14% to 6.78% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Zanster has a 1.71% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.48% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sen has a 1.69% chance to win----going from 0.05% to 2.71% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Jim has a 1.09% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.6% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TLO has a 0.94% chance to win----going from 1.16% to 99.2% if they get 1st, or 0.23% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.68% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.56% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Kane has a 0.59% chance to win----going from 0.09% to 15.54% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iAsonu has a 0.56% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 1.78% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hitman has a 0.42% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.07% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. XiGua has a 0.07% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.49% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/S5FGnUB.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 StarLeague Season 3 Quarterfinals Day 2 Rain vs Rogue in in StarLeague Season 3 quarterfinals. Rain has the #1 Headband. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Rogue is at 97.91% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.23% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.72%, or 96.75% if they lose. herO vs MyuNgSiK in in StarLeague Season 3 quarterfinals. MyuNgSiK must win this match! herO has the #4 Headband. herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.56% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. MyuNgSiK is at 8.53% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.44% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 20.74%, or 0.24% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] + MyuNgSiK must win this tournament! ByuL has a 26.54% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Rain has a 21.58% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. herO has a 17.86% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. TY has a 16.61% chance to win----going from 28.03% to 99.89% if they get 1st, or 13.72% if they don't. Rogue has a 10.28% chance to win----going from 97.91% to 100% if they get 1st, or 97.67% if they don't. MyuNgSiK has a 7.13% chance to win----going from 8.53% to 98.97% if they get 1st, or 1.58% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [SSL Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/V3WpNIP.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro32 Group G + Show Spoiler [Changes During WCS Ro32 Week 2] + Biggest Winners Rogue went up by 12.6%, going from 84.76% to 97.36% ForGG went up by 5.38%, going from 9.56% to 14.94% GuMiho went up by 4.51%, going from 3.38% to 7.89% Lilbow went up by 3.11%, going from 11.76% to 14.87% Dark went up by 0.35%, going from 78.98% to 79.33% Dear went up by 0.18%, going from 5.73% to 5.91%Biggest Losers soO went down by 11.34%, going from 11.62% to 0.28% MyuNgSiK went down by 8.53%, going from 8.76% to 0.24% TY went down by 1.67%, going from 29.35% to 27.68% FanTaSy went down by 1.44%, going from 71.6% to 70.16% Jaedong went down by 1.42%, going from 13.9% to 12.48% MarineLorD went down by 0.71%, going from 5.5% to 4.79% Snute went down by 0.5%, going from 5.44% to 4.94%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + Hitman, Elazer, Jim, and Snute in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. Snute must win this match! Hitman is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.96% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Jim is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0% if they lose. Elazer is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.02% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Snute is at 4.94% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.32% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 7.33%, or 0.01% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Remaining Ro32 Group] + viOLet, MaNa, TLO, and XiGua in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. TLO must win this match! viOLet is at 0.22% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.33% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.38%, or 0.01% if they lose. TLO is at 1.08% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.3%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.28% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.98% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.4%, or 0.01% if they lose. XiGua is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.92% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Jaedong, MarineLorD, Snute, and TLO must win this tournament! Hydra has a 20.36% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 11.74% chance to win----going from 14.94% to 99.91% if they get 1st, or 3.64% if they don't. Polt has a 11.14% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Lilbow has a 9.92% chance to win----going from 14.86% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 5.48% if they don't. Jaedong has a 9.39% chance to win----going from 12.48% to 99.01% if they get 1st, or 3.51% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Petraeus has a 6.68% chance to win----going from 1.29% to 18.87% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 5.67% chance to win----going from 4.79% to 82.4% if they get 1st, or 0.13% if they don't. Snute has a 4.13% chance to win----going from 4.94% to 99.67% if they get 1st, or 0.86% if they don't. Zanster has a 3.81% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.64% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MaNa has a 3.58% chance to win----going from 0.28% to 7.56% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 3.01% chance to win----going from 0.08% to 2.68% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.39% chance to win----going from 0.22% to 9.18% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. elfi has a 1.9% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 1.35% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iaguz has a 1.8% chance to win----going from 0.14% to 7.49% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sen has a 1.55% chance to win----going from 0.04% to 2.81% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Jim has a 1.01% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.62% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TLO has a 0.85% chance to win----going from 1.08% to 99.64% if they get 1st, or 0.23% if they don't. Elazer has a 0.61% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.5% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hitman has a 0.38% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.09% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. XiGua has a 0.06% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.67% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/STu0Tww.png) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
sOs, currently at 2400 WCS Points, got a huge boost just by replacing Zest, he went from 27.48% Blizzcon Chances up to 51.13%. However, if sOs loses in the first round then he goes 27.38%. Just advancing a single round (8th place) would put sOs at 50.41%, and a 1st place would put him at 97.4%. If he gets 8th in MSI and 16th in GSL then he goes down to 16.87%. If he gets an 8th in MSI, GSL, and Dreamhack, then he goes up to 94.96%. Jaedong is at 11.82% with 1525 WCS Points. He's not really on the edge yet, so a 16th place here wouldn't hurt him too badly, bringing him down to 9.45%, and similarly a 1st place would only bring him up to 24.2%. Jaedong really needs to make the WCS finals to have a decent chance, even a 4th place in WCS would put him at just 4.17%. Solar is in a similar position as Jaedong, at 9.15% Blizzcon Chances and 1350 WCS Points. A 16th place here puts him at 6.58% while a 1st place puts him at 17.13%. Solar needs to focus on GSL where a 4th place would put him at 3.58%, 2nd place at 17.62%, and 1st place at 94.39%. Hyun is different as he doesn't have a WCS primary tournament (WCS/GSL/SSL) left but he has more WCS Points at 2125, and 8.67% Blizzcon Chances. Because he's relying on partner tournaments now, this tournament can give him a huge swing, between 16th place bringing him down to 1.51%, 2nd place to 11.6%, and 1st place bringing him up to 50.64%. He's also still in the 4Gamers tournament where he's facing Parting next, if he loses there then that's 4th place and puts him at 5.63%. If he wins 1st place in both MSI and 4Gamers then he goes up to 77.15%. 8th in MSI and 4th in 4Gamers would put him down at 3.18%. A 1st place win in MSI and a 4th place in 4Gamers is still only 30.32%. A 2nd place in MSI, 2nd place in Dreamhack, and 4th place in 4Gamers would put him up at 87.05%. WCS Predictor 2015 MSI Masters Day 1 + Show Spoiler [Biggest Changes From sOs Replacing Zest] + Biggest Winners sOs went up by 23.65%, going from 27.48% to 51.13%Biggest Losers FanTaSy went down by 8.03%, going from 69.52% to 61.49% Dark went down by 4.44%, going from 78.99% to 74.55% TY went down by 2.67%, going from 27.35% to 24.68% HyuN went down by 1.42%, going from 10.09% to 8.67% Rogue went down by 1.38%, going from 97.23% to 95.85% Lilbow went down by 0.94%, going from 14.42% to 13.48% GuMiho went down by 0.7%, going from 7.81% to 7.11%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + ForGG went down by 0.63%, going from 14.85% to 14.22% Jaedong went down by 0.53%, going from 12.34% to 11.82% Solar went down by 0.45%, going from 9.61% to 9.15% Dear went down by 0.38%, going from 5.87% to 5.5% Stats went down by 0.37%, going from 2.99% to 2.62% Snute went down by 0.32%, going from 7.71% to 7.4% MarineLorD went down by 0.29%, going from 4.79% to 4.5% Petraeus went down by 0.22%, going from 1.27% to 1.04% Bbyong went down by 0.15%, going from 4.39% to 4.25% INnoVation, MacSed, Hydra, and Has in in MSI Masters round of 16. INnoVation is at 99.98% Blizzcon Chances, with a 81.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.92% if they lose. Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 78.11% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. MacSed is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 14.58% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. Has is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.23% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. FireCake, Ian, HyuN, and PartinG in in MSI Masters round of 16. HyuN must win this match! FireCake is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 41.83% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. HyuN is at 8.67% Blizzcon Chances, with a 65.83% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 12.39%, or 1.51% if they lose. Ian is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 22.01% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 70.33% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. sOs, TooDming, Harstem, and Solar in in MSI Masters round of 16. sOs is at 51.13% Blizzcon Chances, with a 65.83% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 63.46%, or 27.38% if they lose. Harstem is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 34.45% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. TooDming is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.43% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. Solar is at 9.15% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.29% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 10.19%, or 6.58% if they lose. Petraeus, Jaedong, Polt, and viOLet in in MSI Masters round of 16. Petraeus is at 1.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.07% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.79%, or 0.38% if they lose. Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.77% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose. Jaedong is at 11.82% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.8% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.61%, or 9.45% if they lose. viOLet is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.35% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.37%, or 0.04% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [MSI Winning Chances] + INnoVation has a 19.39% chance to win----going from 99.98% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.98% if they don't. Hydra has a 14.08% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Solar has a 11.44% chance to win----going from 9.15% to 17.13% if they get 1st, or 8.12% if they don't. PartinG has a 10.6% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. HyuN has a 9.2% chance to win----going from 8.67% to 50.64% if they get 1st, or 4.42% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + sOs has a 8.52% chance to win----going from 51.13% to 97.4% if they get 1st, or 46.82% if they don't. Jaedong has a 6.6% chance to win----going from 11.82% to 24.2% if they get 1st, or 10.94% if they don't. Polt has a 5.95% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Petraeus has a 4.37% chance to win----going from 1.04% to 6.62% if they get 1st, or 0.79% if they don't. viOLet has a 3.09% chance to win----going from 0.18% to 2.16% if they get 1st, or 0.12% if they don't. FireCake has a 2.73% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Harstem has a 1.52% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TooDming has a 0.96% chance to win----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Has has a 0.94% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Ian has a 0.45% chance to win----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. MacSed has a 0.17% chance to win----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [MSI Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/XUevbxY.png) WCS Predictor 2015 WCS Premier Season 3 Ro32 Group H + Show Spoiler [Changes During Ro32 Week 2] + Biggest Winners sOs went up by 23.48%, going from 27.65% to 51.13% Rogue went up by 11.09%, going from 84.76% to 95.85% ForGG went up by 4.66%, going from 9.56% to 14.22% GuMiho went up by 3.74%, going from 3.38% to 7.11% Snute went up by 1.96%, going from 5.44% to 7.4% Lilbow went up by 1.72%, going from 11.76% to 13.48%Biggest Losers soO went down by 11.42%, going from 11.62% to 0.2% FanTaSy went down by 10.11%, going from 71.6% to 61.49% MyuNgSiK went down by 8.61%, going from 8.76% to 0.16% TY went down by 4.68%, going from 29.35% to 24.68% Dark went down by 4.43%, going from 78.98% to 74.55% Jaedong went down by 2.09%, going from 13.9% to 11.82% HyuN went down by 1.73%, going from 10.41% to 8.67%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + MarineLorD went down by 0.99%, going from 5.5% to 4.5% Solar went down by 0.49%, going from 9.65% to 9.15% Stats went down by 0.41%, going from 3.03% to 2.62% Petraeus went down by 0.35%, going from 1.4% to 1.04% TLO went down by 0.25%, going from 1.25% to 1.01% Dear went down by 0.24%, going from 5.73% to 5.5% Bbyong went down by 0.14%, going from 4.38% to 4.25% MaNa went down by 0.1%, going from 0.29% to 0.18% viOLet, MaNa, TLO, and XiGua in in WCS Premier Season 3 round of 32. TLO must win this match! viOLet is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.32%, or 0.01% if they lose. TLO is at 1.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.14%, or 0.01% if they lose. MaNa is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.97% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.27%, or 0% if they lose. XiGua is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [WCS Winning Chances] + ForGG, Lilbow, Jaedong, Snute, MarineLorD, and TLO must win this tournament! Hydra has a 20.19% chance to win----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. ForGG has a 11.71% chance to win----going from 14.22% to 99.91% if they get 1st, or 2.85% if they don't. Polt has a 11.07% chance to win----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't. Lilbow has a 9.65% chance to win----going from 13.48% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 4.24% if they don't. Jaedong has a 9.3% chance to win----going from 11.82% to 98.57% if they get 1st, or 2.92% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Petraeus has a 6.59% chance to win----going from 1.04% to 15.47% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't. Snute has a 6.45% chance to win----going from 7.4% to 99.6% if they get 1st, or 1.04% if they don't. MarineLorD has a 5.67% chance to win----going from 4.5% to 77.64% if they get 1st, or 0.1% if they don't. Zanster has a 3.78% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 0.47% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MaNa has a 3.46% chance to win----going from 0.18% to 5.24% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GunGFuBanDa has a 2.87% chance to win----going from 0.06% to 2.21% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.37% chance to win----going from 0.18% to 7.65% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. elfi has a 1.82% chance to win----going from 0.02% to 1.08% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. iaguz has a 1.8% chance to win----going from 0.09% to 4.76% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sen has a 1.53% chance to win----going from 0.03% to 2.21% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. TLO has a 0.84% chance to win----going from 1.01% to 99.58% if they get 1st, or 0.16% if they don't. Hitman has a 0.84% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. XiGua has a 0.06% chance to win----going from 0.01% to 0.47% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [WCS Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/LUGOKrj.png) | ||
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