Rain forfeits GSL Code S spot in favor of MLG. - Page 34

On November 02 2012 00:23 Condor Hero wrote:

Except Rain has ZERO obligation to GSL.
Would you call Stephano a douchebag for never accepting Code S seeds despite being offered many times?

I love how everyone was bitching at Kespa to let the players decide which tournaments to play, then when someone decides to play MLG, the same people are bitching again.

On November 02 2012 01:30 creamyturtle wrote:
Doesn't GSL have tiers of guaranteed prize money? Like RO32 gets $483 dollars, RO16 gets $824, etc etc ??

(here's a thread with the 2010 payouts, they have changed slightly since then: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=158572)


Let's do some math using Expected Values. Expected Value is the winning payout multiplied by the probability of winning. In Rain's case, he was already guaranteed RO32 moneys with a probability of 1. That means Expected Value = $430 x 1 = $430

Now let's look at MLG. The probability of Rain winning is somewhere around 0.25 or 25%. Given that he just won the OSL he is a heavy favorite, but having to fight through open bracket of BO3's is a big task, hence the low probability I have assigned him. First place is $5000 so we multiply $5000 x 0.25 = $1250 is our Expected Value for Rain attending MLG.

Now looking back at GSL, Rain has a guaranteed $430 for RO32, with let's say a 0.75 chance of making it to RO16. The RO16 payout is $1710, so we multiply that by 0.75 to get = $1282. So already Rain has about 95%+ chance of getting $430 + $1282 = $1712 pretty much guaranteed cash money.

Using these expected value calculations, you can insert your own probabilities and the more modern 2012 GSL payouts to figure out more accurate calculations. Given Rain's chances of making it through RO16 are pretty good (0.6+), I would estimate his true E.V. in the GSL to be somewhere around $2500+. Since we know MLG's prize pool is not that large, and the relatively low probability of Rain winning MLG, I would argue that Rain made a poor financial decision by abandoning GSL for MLG.

$2500 vs $1250 you do the math



More Advanced Maths:

GSL

$430 x 1 = $430 [RO32]
+
$1710 x 0.75 = $1712 [RO16]
+
$3400 x 0.5 = $1700 [RO8]
+
$8600 x 0.25 = $2150 [RO4]
+....
RO2 + RO1...
=
$5992




MLG

$5000 x 0.25 = $1250

On November 02 2012 01:53 CosmicSpiral wrote:


Code S Ro32 pays out roughly $1,279. 1st place at MLG is $25,000.

The payout structure can be found on Liquipedia. Just check the GSL Season 5 page.

On November 01 2012 14:02 BgSBendeR wrote:
Here comes the massive assumptions. . .
Seriously, my take on this is that he heard from his team mates who attended the KeSPA invitational tournament how awesome foreign fans are and so decided to take part in Open bracket of MLG.

On November 02 2012 02:11 Bupalumpa wrote:
It kind of made me want to see Rain FAIL at MLG in punishmet of his GSL forfeit. Ohh well...

On November 02 2012 02:07 creamyturtle wrote:
New Expected Value math with updated 2012 figures:

GSL

$1279 x 1 = $1279 [RO32]
+
$1705 x 0.75 = $1278 [RO16]
+
$2558 x 0.5 = $1279 [RO8]
+
$4263 x 0.25 = $1066 [SemiFinals]
+
$17,053 x 0.1 = $1705 [Finals]
+
$42,633 x 0.05 = $2131 [Champion]

=
$8738





MLG

$25,000 x 0.25 = $6,250




$8,738 > $6,250

GSL > MLG




Numbers are based on these 2 links:

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2012_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_5
&
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2012_MLG_Pro_Circuit/Fall/Championship

On November 02 2012 02:15 Hider wrote:


0% probability of second/3rd/4th+ place at MLG?

On November 02 2012 02:17 creamyturtle wrote:



I could show those probabilities and respective payouts, but you can't get paid for multiple places in MLG. Actually I think the same holds true for GSL so I will have to change those figures.

On November 02 2012 02:06 OPL3SA2 wrote:


Rather go through open bracket of MLG for a chance on winning a small prize pool, when he's in a guaranteed payout situation with GSL code S? Code S gives you 3200$ just for participating in the round of 32. Why would he forfeit that guaranteed money and exposure? Everyone knows Code S is where it's at... even kespa players...