EPTWhy are Starcraft 2 tournaments so unpredictable? - Page 14
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redeyeskirby
Canada14 Posts
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lorkac
United States2297 Posts
On February 04 2012 02:51 redeyeskirby wrote: Lol if sports are so predictable then we won't have so many people losing money gambling on the wrong team in every single sport. Because what they mean by predictable is the 90% wind ate flash had for a period of time. Now he's just at 70% What they mean by consistent is when Bisu beat Savior 3-0 and not when Bisu fails to make it to a final but stork and jangbi do. What they mean by "shit game" is that it's not broodwar. What they mean by unpredictable is that they feel that since the game is easier, foreigners should be more relevant because obviously that's the only reason foreigners failed in BW. When reality sets in and they realize the skill gap between Korea vs the world is HUGE they blame it on imba instead of blaming it on skill. Like when good players whine about race imbalance and not their crappy macro. What I'm saying is that there is a reason Sjow and Goody are "good" foreigners despite their atrocious hand speed. Because the foreign scene sucks and has to blame the game to feel better. | ||
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alpinefpOPP
United States134 Posts
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Mrvoodoochild1
United States1439 Posts
On February 03 2012 03:31 karpo wrote: Then why compete as a progamer? Most of them would earn more money putting all that effort into a real job instead, a real job with vacation time, benefits, and a dependable solid income. Why spend 5-10 hours a day on something you don't just find boring, but you actually consider it to be shit? spending 5-10 hours a day doing something they consider to be shit is what normal people call work. SC2 is ajob to a lot of progammers. If you could get paid to play a video game why not. Yes you may be able to make more money in a real occupation but how many jobs allow you to work in the comfort of your home, fly out to cities around the world to compete and make you a minor celebrity? | ||
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EdSlyB
Portugal1621 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17658 Posts
On February 04 2012 02:48 eits wrote: Man, I've played baseball with Kyle Drabek since I was 5 years old. We are both from the Woodlands, TX, and when i was 12-14 years old he was on my tournmaent teams roster (teams have to have a national roster if they want to go to national tournies, he came to the championships with us, lol ringer much?) It is SO disapointing to see him completely fucking suck balls up there in toronto man. More walks than strikeouts, beer gut, the guy really let himself go. Hell, we were in on the save football teams growing up in jr high and high school the kid was a freak, it is funny to see how HIGH the skill ceiling is in their respected areas becasue this kid COULD NOT BE TOUCHED in our town, then hit 18, got drafted, and got a taste of how men play the game its supposed to be played and started not doing so hot. when you go to play with the big boys, you better bring your big guns i wish i lived near a real ball park. going to the SkyDOme/Rogers Centre .. no one really knows the game (i'd say 70% don't know what a 4-seam fastball is) .. and its like sitting in an elevator with 15,000 people. i go to Detroit to watch "real games" as much as i can. the thing to note about Drabek is that he dominated with his slider. Pitchers with the "biggest upside" dominate with their fastball alone. and they might even not have a set of signals with the catcher... until they hit say 20 years old they just throw nothing but fastballs at guys and are untouchable until the hit class A+ (high level A). i'm always weary of these 18 and 19 year olds that dominate with breaking stuff and rely on 4 pitches to get the guys in the small town they live in to strike out. i've had the good fortune of seeing up close Roy Halladay do his thing. He is the most laser focused consistent practise player i've ever seen. i was never his "friend" though. but, i saw him work up close... he has a death stare that would make the world's best lie detector test. all that said.. on 1 day.. Drabek completely out-pitched Halladay. and Roy made ZERO excuses. this does not imply MLB pitching has a low skill ceiling. | ||
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Flamingo777
United States1190 Posts
The same exists in other games. If you are to compare competitive Super Smash Brothers: Melee to it's successor, Brawl, you see the same phenomena. The developers took out a lot of technical skill-intensive abilities, and even pseudo-glitches, or taking advantage of physics and mechanics that Brawl simply does not have. Compare these glitches to muta stacking, obs blocking, etc, etc. Then you see some things that only the very best can add to their skill repertoire, thus placing in an elite tier of all the players. | ||
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Gentso
United States2218 Posts
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Flamingo777
United States1190 Posts
On February 04 2012 03:58 Gentso wrote: It's not unpredictable. A top tier player wins tournaments 99% of the time. I disagree. In Starcraft 2, there is a lot of variance. Imagine someone of Trimaster's skill level playing IdrA. I'm not speaking as an IdrA fanboy, nor am I dissing Col.Trimaster this is just an example. The Trimaster player actually has a chance of beating IdrA in Starcraft 2, even though he is much of a seasoned competitor, and furthermore his skill is probably lower by a great deal as well. If these two players were to play in SC:BW, and had the same gap in skill, the lower skill player would be extremely lucky to take even 1, or possibly 2 games in a series of 100 games. This is not an exaggeration by any means. | ||
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0neder
United States3733 Posts
SC players have had only 2 years with rules that change every few months on dozens of maps. | ||
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Gentso
United States2218 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:07 Flamingo777 wrote: I disagree. In Starcraft 2, there is a lot of variance. Imagine someone of Trimaster's skill level playing IdrA. I'm not speaking as an IdrA fanboy, nor am I dissing Col.Trimaster this is just an example. The Trimaster player actually has a chance of beating IdrA in Starcraft 2, even though he is much of a seasoned competitor, and furthermore his skill is probably lower by a great deal as well. If these two players were to play in SC:BW, and had the same gap in skill, the lower skill player would be extremely lucky to take even 1, or possibly 2 games in a series of 100 games. This is not an exaggeration by any means. You honestly think so? Maybe before, but not anymore. People have learned how to play now, most games run into macro games because cheese and timings are figured out. The community overrates a great deal of pros out there. Most foreigners are around the same skill level, only Koreans have taken it to the next level. That's why they go to tournaments and win them pretty much all of the time. People love to reference BW because they think those previous BW *pros* should be dominating simply because they played BW, but the truth is the playerbase was much smaller and less developed. The funny thing is, very few of those previous BW pros are still relevant in terms of tournament winning abilities in SC2, and it's not because of SC2 design. Have you guys been watching tournaments lately? I can't even recall the last time something as ridiculous as Trimaster winning vs Idra. I see Stephano dominating, Koreans dominating, and lesser players CONTINUE to blame SC2 and say that it's too easy. | ||
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babylon
8765 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:07 Flamingo777 wrote: I disagree. In Starcraft 2, there is a lot of variance. Imagine someone of Trimaster's skill level playing IdrA. I'm not speaking as an IdrA fanboy, nor am I dissing Col.Trimaster this is just an example. The Trimaster player actually has a chance of beating IdrA in Starcraft 2, even though he is much of a seasoned competitor, and furthermore his skill is probably lower by a great deal as well. If these two players were to play in SC:BW, and had the same gap in skill, the lower skill player would be extremely lucky to take even 1, or possibly 2 games in a series of 100 games. This is not an exaggeration by any means. Hmm. Moon was able to get around a 25% win off the WMF B-teamers when he participated in the in-house rankings while playing War3 professionally, so I do think you're exaggerating quite a bit. I don't know how good Moon was at BW, of course, but he definitely wouldn't have been practicing anywhere near the same amount of time as the WMF B-teamers due to obligations towards War3. | ||
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lorkac
United States2297 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:07 Flamingo777 wrote: I disagree. In Starcraft 2, there is a lot of variance. Imagine someone of Trimaster's skill level playing IdrA. I'm not speaking as an IdrA fanboy, nor am I dissing Col.Trimaster this is just an example. The Trimaster player actually has a chance of beating IdrA in Starcraft 2, even though he is much of a seasoned competitor, and furthermore his skill is probably lower by a great deal as well. If these two players were to play in SC:BW, and had the same gap in skill, the lower skill player would be extremely lucky to take even 1, or possibly 2 games in a series of 100 games. This is not an exaggeration by any means. false assumption to think Idra is the superior player off of popularity and face time. Idra is sub-code A right now. He's not exactly a "top tier" player. | ||
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Flamingo777
United States1190 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:17 lorkac wrote: false assumption to think Idra is the superior player off of popularity and face time. Idra is sub-code A right now. He's not exactly a "top tier" player. Did you see who I compared him with? I don't think he is a top tier either. But calling Trimaster close to the top is completely false as well. I don't see your dispute. | ||
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Primadog
United States4411 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/N6GnR.png) It's a reminder that there's no sure things in StarCraft (BW or the sequel), an attribute of the game that made it a serious spectator sport. | ||
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lorkac
United States2297 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:18 Flamingo777 wrote: Did you see who I compared him with? I don't think he is a top tier either. But calling Trimaster close to the top is completely false as well. I don't see your dispute. Neither players are top players. Hence they have a fair shot at beating each other. Edit:: just to point out. LiquidTyler lost a lot in pool play in MLG. His win rate is much lower than Idra's win rate. But when Tyler dropped down to the Open brackets, he tore up the whole tournament reaching day 3. MLG players that get to day 2-3 are really really good and are almost equivalent to "low tier" players in Pool play. Trimaster getting a win vs Idra is not something outside of the ordinary. Trimaster is simply less famous. | ||
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Longshank
1648 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:20 Primadog wrote: Eight years and 27 (combined) seasons later, Liquibet remains a cherished tradition amongst the best oddmakers of TeamLiquid. Each Liquibet season, a champion is crowned by picking the most winners out of the two to five-hundred professional StarCraft matches played. Despite format changes, metagame shifts, and racial imbalance claims, winning percentage has remained surprisingly consistent: + Show Spoiler + It's a reminder that there's no sure things in StarCraft (BW or the sequel), an attribute of the game that made it a serious spectator sport. Interesting. Either the SC2 crowd is more educated than the BW one or the game isn't as random as people seem to think. I lean towards the latter. | ||
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lorkac
United States2297 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:34 Longshank wrote: Interesting. Either the SC2 crowd is more educated than the BW one or the game isn't as random as people seem to think. I lean towards the latter. Only do so if you trust numbers and public records. Otherwise, do what I do and trust gut feeling. | ||
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Primadog
United States4411 Posts
On February 04 2012 04:34 Longshank wrote: Interesting. Either the SC2 crowd is more educated than the BW one or the game isn't as random as people seem to think. I lean towards the latter. Using liquibet as a proxy, SC2 has approached BW in predictability, so there's no case in "SC2 is worse than BW because it's too predictable/not predictable enough." One curious parallel is this 70~75% prediction ceiling matches closely with hitrate of traditional sports oddmakers. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eWxwC.jpg) Stern, H.S. 1997. How accurately can sports outcomes be predicted? Chance 10(No. 4):19. | ||
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
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