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Hi TL
I just wanted to raise for discussion the issue of why the results of Starcraft 2 tournaments are so unpredictable. Let's try to focus the discussion on the GSL as it's the most prestegious tournament to win and (I assume) it's where people train the hardest for and where the best strategies are seen (and please don't debate on which tournament is best, that's not the point).
In a tournament like the GSL, someone who does well in one season can do horribly in the next. For example, Leenock took a 2nd place finish at the previous GSL only to be knocked out in the RO32 this season. A better example would probably be NesTea who won GSL July 2011 not even losing a single game (a feat very few have achieved even from BW) only to be eliminated in the RO16 the following season. (These are just examples, please DO NOT discuss why they lost games but focus on why it's so hard to predict a winnner, or top 4 for that matter.)
Contrast this with a sport like tennis (since I think this is something people on both sides of the Atlantic would be familiar with). In the past 4 major tournaments (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open), there have only been 5 different players who took the top 4 spots on all tournaments.
In contrast, for the past 4 GSLs, there are 14 different players who have returned with either a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
Please also focus your discussion on major tournaments, not small/online ones like Playhem but on stuff like GSL/MLG
Why do you think this is so. Share your opinions below:
Edit: I'll start the discussion with this. Personally I believe that top SC2 players (MC, NesTea, MVP) are real good but not to a point where there is a clear difference in skill level from the 2nd tier (Leenock, Oz, July). This causes frequent upsets and unpredictable results. It's not like say tennis where there is a clear skill difference between Nadal and someone 20 ranks lower in world rankings.
Mods: Please do not close this thread prematurely. I put it under SC2 and not SC2 tournaments as I want to discuss the state of the game (no pun intended) and not specific tournaments. If you feel it's really necessary, feel free to move it there.
tl;dr In GSL/Starcraft Tournaments it's very hard to predict the winner, while in a sport like tennis or even soccer it's expected which players/teams will make the top few. Why do you think this is so?
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Because there is no person who has figured it all out. And everyone has bad days, if you have a bad day during a tournament is kinda sucks. If you look at the current Brood War scene it is kind of the same people at the top. There is also some luck involved with scouting a cheese or w/e
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How can you compare starcraft to other sports? There are so many other factors in the other sports where people can differentiate themselves (fitness, skills, etc). In SC2, you can be good at macroing, but if the game never reaches there, then you won't have an advantage.
As DrPanda said, the game hasn't been figured out completely. Players will always come up with new and unseen strategies.
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Because tennis and soccer are very established sports, while SC2 has been out for one year. The game itself is more volatile and thus it's very easy to get knocked out. Also the system that touranments are based on isn't necessarily the best player, just the best player at that moment.
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Its simply because SC2 is still new and is still being figured out, the game is still stabilising and this leads to a high level of inconsistency compared to what we see in more established and stable sports/games.
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the game isn't developed enough and we don't have players which are clearly better than others. the overall skill is very close.
i guess going bo5 or even bo7 single elimination with a better seeding system would provide more consistent results.
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The game isn't perfectly balanced. No player has consistent concentration/performance. No tournament has a perfect setup.
Its exciting! Unpredictable is exciting! :D
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SC2 is a new strategy game where new strategies are still being found.
Comparing to professional sports was also not a good comparison. Skill ceiling and difference between players in sports is much bigger than SC2. Even the a top 100 player in tennis is going to struggle a lot to beat a top 5 player.
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EDIT:
BO5 set tennis match is really hard to win if you're the worse player.
BO+10 starcraft match is really hard to win if you're the worse player
Like in tennis you might get lucky for couple games , in starcraft that would be first game of Bo3
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The average tennis match has like 200-300 points needed to win. Starcraft 2 has often Bo3 or even Bo1. If we switched to Bo7-Bo9 for all matches we would see the better players winning a lot more.
(of course, this is implausible because of scheduling and such)
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Its better being like this, I used to play another game professionally before I came over to sc2, and it was always the same 3/4 teams winning everything, and they were uncontested for like 2 years. Its much better being unpredictable than the same group of teams winning.
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Because the game is extremely volatile even without the fact the game is new and tactically changes every week or so. The updated AI from BW has made fights far more unpredictable and as such players can lose or win based on a mammoth variety of factors, its currently an issue with the game more than anything else imho.
ps. what idra said.
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On February 02 2012 23:36 IdrA wrote:
cuz its a shit game
Greg, clear and consice, as usual :D
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Not really. I've predicted 3 MLG's correct in a row or maybe i'm just magic =)
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They are not that unpredictable. There just happens to be far too many of them over short periods of time.
This means that (statistical) upsets will naturally happen more often, and that players have very little time to keep up and prepare for everything which causes even more upsets when the less prepared players meet the more prepared ones.
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By the way, not too long ago male tennis was extremely volatile and just about anyone could win a grand slam. Then Federer started dominating, until we get to the current point where there are like two really good players, 3 just below that and then a vast skill gap. But it could just be slightly random and when Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Federer retire it will be chaos once again.
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You can look it from another angle:
MVP x3 winner
Nestea x3 winner
MC x2 winner
MMA x2 winner
Fruitdealer x1 winner
Polt x1 winner
Jjakji x1 winner
13 championships, 7 champions. It's not that unpredictable if you think about it.
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tbh sc2 has more of a "gamble/luck/volatile" aspect compared to sc1. It just wont be as consistent as sc1. Players will easily have their up and downs and player skill gap from one another isnt as vast as one would think.
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EPT
