EPTWhy are Starcraft 2 tournaments so unpredictable? - Page 12
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
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Olinimm
1471 Posts
On February 03 2012 19:47 Hazzah wrote: IdrA is right this game is no way near broodwar. In SC2 lower tier player can win vs higher tier player. Some recent results are for example Gumiho vs MVP... Hon sin beat Bisu. Therefore broodwar is a shit game. ----> your logic. | ||
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kcbgoku
Poland156 Posts
In SC2 lower tier player can win vs higher tier player How is this bad in any way? I don't see it. | ||
Destructicon
4713 Posts
Even Flash who now, is considered the best BW player of all time has 75% win rate. Even in BW some upsets happened, it is understandable. What you need to remember though is that, the players that are really good will consistently do well. It doesn't matter if a good player loses once in a blue moon, what matters if he consistently wins competitions or makes it to the final. So, I'd say IMMvp is really good because he won numerous tournaments, 3 GSLs, Blizzcon, MLG Aneheim etc. Just the same as Nada in his BW prime was a really good winning 3 MSLs, 3 OSLs etc. Also remember, the game is still evolving, and no one has reached the skill ceiling yet. We have not really yet had a Bonjwa like in BW, a guy that can, for example, win 3 GSLs in a row as well as 3 MLGs or something like that, and have a win rate of like 70% in all MU. I'd say the way it is now is ok, there is nothing out of the ordinary, you really don't see a no name go to a tournament and beat the best players. But the level of competition at the highest level is so high that you can still have upsets, players slumping, other players rising etc. Edit: Also yes if a total unknown scrub, who only plays like twice a weak can beat a top caliber player than yes, the game would be bad, it would mean the game is so simple, so lacking in depth, that someone who hardly plays it can master it to the level of someone that plays for 12+ hours per day every day. But I don't see this being the case. The people that take games of each other are about the same level. And you can clearly tell when someone is over/bellow someone else's level. Its like the Koreans going to the MLGs, we clearly saw how the Koreans dominated for most of the year. After a while some foreigners improved enough to be able to fight them toe to toe, but not all. Most Koreans still blazed right trough being mostly eliminated by either other Koreans, or the few foreigners at their level. | ||
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Zihua
Netherlands177 Posts
On February 02 2012 23:36 IdrA wrote: cuz its a shit game I wish you would stop infecting the community with this idiocy. If you don't like the game, then you should quit already. Fuck. | ||
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Sideburn
United States442 Posts
On February 03 2012 18:33 Hinanawi wrote: Remember kids, the best way to lie is with statistics. I feel like this is a bit of a dangerous and ignorant stance. Statistics can be very rigorous and scientific. In fact, all of our lives depend on inferential statistics in some ways, regulation, food safety, etc... If it was all just bollocks, then why do we bother with it? | ||
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
On February 03 2012 20:40 Destructicon wrote: I think people are looking at this from a wrong angle. Just like Artosis & Tasteless have said, even at the highest level of play when opponents are close to equally matched, they still have on average win of around 60%. Some have wins of about 70%+ in certain match ups, those are considered specialists. Some really exceptional players in their prime, like Nada, iloveoov, Bisu, Savior, etc have had way higher win rates, but they never got to 100%. Even Flash who now, is considered the best BW player of all time has 75% win rate. Even in BW some upsets happened, it is understandable. What you need to remember though is that, the players that are really good will consistently do well. It doesn't matter if a good player loses once in a blue moon, what matters if he consistently wins competitions or makes it to the final. So, I'd say IMMvp is really good because he won numerous tournaments, 3 GSLs, Blizzcon, MLG Aneheim etc. Just the same as Nada in his BW prime was a really good winning 3 MSLs, 3 OSLs etc. Also remember, the game is still evolving, and no one has reached the skill ceiling yet. We have not really yet had a Bonjwa like in BW, a guy that can, for example, win 3 GSLs in a row as well as 3 MLGs or something like that, and have a win rate of like 70% in all MU. I'd say the way it is now is ok, there is nothing out of the ordinary, you really don't see a no name go to a tournament and beat the best players. But the level of competition at the highest level is so high that you can still have upsets, players slumping, other players rising etc. Edit: Also yes if a total unknown scrub, who only plays like twice a weak can beat a top caliber player than yes, the game would be bad, it would mean the game is so simple, so lacking in depth, that someone who hardly plays it can master it to the level of someone that plays for 12+ hours per day every day. But I don't see this being the case. The people that take games of each other are about the same level. And you can clearly tell when someone is over/bellow someone else's level. Its like the Koreans going to the MLGs, we clearly saw how the Koreans dominated for most of the year. After a while some foreigners improved enough to be able to fight them toe to toe, but not all. Most Koreans still blazed right trough being mostly eliminated by either other Koreans, or the few foreigners at their level. Excellent post, and there really isn't much more to say. The problem is that most people don't have an intuitive understanding of probability and variance. For example lets say someone has an 80% WR against zerg. They would be a huge favorite, and people would justifiably predict that player to advance in a bo3. Theoretically, people might realize that there is still a greater than 5% chance that the player will lose, but emotionally they don't. When the inevitable occurs people freak out because it violates their expectations. To most people, 75% might as well be 100%. | ||
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Mr.X
Spain115 Posts
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Teddyman
Finland362 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/7kFRf.jpg) You could say that this points towards BW being more unpredictable that SC2 but the sample size isn't huge. A lot of assumptions are made that aren't necessarily true: that people are as proficient in predicting both games, only looking at the top 10 for a season, and looking at points predicted instead of matches. It doesn't really prove anything but does give some clue that we aren't playing rock-paper-scissors here. EDIT: Another factor to take into consideration would be that there are more people predicting SC2 matches, resulting in a higher chance of someone getting lucky with their predictions. This could be examined by checking whether the same people are placing high every Liquibet or if it's always changing. Anyway, 2^8th post bitches! | ||
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Ysellian
Netherlands9029 Posts
On February 03 2012 20:51 Sideburn wrote: I feel like this is a bit of a dangerous and ignorant stance. Statistics can be very rigorous and scientific. In fact, all of our lives depend on inferential statistics in some ways, regulation, food safety, etc... If it was all just bollocks, then why do we bother with it? A dutch nurse was imprisoned because of a statistical anomaly in her hospital department and not only was she proven innocent after years of trial, her swift actions actually helped save lives. A very extreme example, but statistics can be misinterpreted and should always be taken with a grain of salt. It's much better to look at the games objectively and think of reasons why pro's feel they are losing more games than they should. Which can probably be answered by how powerful all-ins are. | ||
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paradoxOO9
United Kingdom1123 Posts
I also think that a lot of the time after someone wins a tournament (GSL in particular) and gets put in a group in the next tournament. The players in said group will go out of their way to 'snipe' the highest seed since they think that they will be able to get past the other players relying on their standard play. It also doesn't help that players are relatively week in different match-ups. Going with the tennis analogy it would be like playing 3 matches in a day, one being on a clay court, the other two being grass. | ||
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
On February 03 2012 21:10 Ysellian wrote: A dutch nurse was imprisoned because of a statistical anomaly in her hospital department and not only was she proven innocent after years of trial, her swift actions actually helped save lives. A very extreme example, but statistics do lie and should always be taken with a grain of salt. Statistics don't like, they are merely misinterpreted. It's funny that although no evidence has been shown that SC2 is less predictable than BW or most other sports, that people continue to enter the thread and post their answers as if it were a given. | ||
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Ysellian
Netherlands9029 Posts
On February 03 2012 21:11 zefreak wrote: Statistics don't like, they are merely misinterpreted If you are going to be technical about it than you are definitely right. Statistics never lie, but it's still a crap science. | ||
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robih
Austria1086 Posts
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cccever
17 Posts
MVP: 122-61 (66.67%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L L L W W W L L Nestea: 98-47 (67.59%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W L L L W W W L W W MC: 88-57 (60.69%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W L L W W W L W MMA: 82-48 (63.08%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W L W W W L L L W W | ||
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aTnClouD
Italy2428 Posts
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karpo
Sweden1998 Posts
On February 03 2012 21:14 Ysellian wrote: If you are going to be technical about it than you are definitely right. Statistics never lie, but it's still a crap science. That must be one of the most stupid statements i've heard. Statistics is a completely nessesary science, it's just that there's misuse. We rely on statistics for alot of things and just because you can find cases where people have misunderstood statistical data doesn't mean it's crap. | ||
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Knalldi
Germany50 Posts
No statistic in the World can virtually "merge" the diverse Tournament scene and its fine as it is. | ||
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Jett.Jack.Alvir
Canada2250 Posts
I know this has been discussed before, but I can't wait to see some of the BW gods switch over. With their practice regime and dedication, they will flesh out and create some really amazing strats that will blow the lid off SC2. Like cooking, it takes time to create a really great dish, but we are limited by our ingredients and knowledge. Wait until the other 2 expansions are out and the progamers will create strategy so delicious you will drool all over your keyboard. | ||
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Marou
Germany1371 Posts
On February 02 2012 23:36 IdrA wrote: cuz its a shit game I came to this only to read this. Thanks IdrA for being yourself  | ||
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