EPTWhy are Starcraft 2 tournaments so unpredictable? - Page 10
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Basher_
82 Posts
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Sinensis
United States2513 Posts
On February 03 2012 15:51 Fionn wrote: It's not unpredictable. BW is the same as SC2 currently in predictably. Just replace Flash's name with MVP. Replace Jaedong's name with Nestea. Replace MC's name with Bisu. Replace MMA's name with Fantasy. Fun fact: There have been 13 GSL finals, counting the Blizzzard Cup. Can you guess how many didn't involve one of The Big 4 of MVP, MMA, Nestea and MC? Only two and that was the first GSL between FruitDealer and Rainbow, and Jjakji playing Leenock in the last finals where MMA/MVP were in the semifinals and quarterfinals, both losing in five game series. Flash 432-166 (72.24%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W MVP 128-44 (74.42%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W Nestea 32-22 (59.26%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L W L L Nestea ZvZ 16-5(76.19%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W W W L L Jaedong 451-215 (67.72%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L L L W Jaedong ZvZ 159-59 (72.94%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W W W L L W W L (astonishing) Bisu 360-185 (66.06%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W L W W W L W W W MC 206-82 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L W L W W W W W MMA 98-39 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W L W W W Fantasy 241-152 (61.32%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W L W W W W W W Kind of fascinating actually... | ||
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Oiseaux
United States676 Posts
Also IdrA is just a SC2 hipster, he just plays the game ironically. Edit: and agreed with the poster above me, fascinating. | ||
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askTeivospy
1525 Posts
IMO the game itself is just too easy when it comes to macroing and microing and scouting is too hard. it makes things way too volatile and it'll always be like that o_O | ||
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Angel_
United States1617 Posts
Edit: and no, a year and a half old is not "too old to not be young anymore" | ||
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Thylacine
Sweden882 Posts
On February 02 2012 23:36 IdrA wrote: cuz its a shit game Umad gracken?? Is there a problem?? User was warned for this post | ||
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bokeevboke
Singapore1674 Posts
On February 02 2012 23:36 IdrA wrote: cuz its a shit game Totally agree with this. Last night I was updating my LoL client to latest patch. And decided to play some sc2 (didnt play for 2 months). 1st game. TvP on xel naga. Protoss proxies two gates, i build bunker, cheese fails and he tries dt rush which fails again. 2nd game. TvP. 1-1-1, he ragequits. 3rd game. I'm bored and go 3v3. We start on some shitty small map. TTZvsTTP. Enemy builds mass MM and stalkers, we know that and respond with mass marine, tank, roach (told zerg to build banelings). They attack we die, game is over. Concluding above-said games, I didn't know if my opponent was better or worse than me. It was like some random decisions in the beginning lead to the outcome. Thats why I think Morrow's 5th point is the real reason for inconsisent tournaments and "cuz its a shit game". sorry for rant. | ||
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karpo
Sweden1998 Posts
On February 03 2012 16:57 askTeivospy wrote: sc2 is too new excuse is getting too old. it'll probably still be used though since patch changes / new expansions will exist for a long long time. I'm not saying the game is figured out, I'm saying it'll never be figured out because there will always be changes to how to game works at a regular basis so theres no point in saying the game is new, but rather it keeps getting changed o_O IMO the game itself is just too easy when it comes to macroing and microing and scouting is too hard. it makes things way too volatile and it'll always be like that o_O The haters calling the game volatile is getting old. There been several constructive posts on SC2 solid win rates and why some players are dropping out of code S that have nothing to do with volatility. On February 03 2012 17:10 bokeevboke wrote: Totally agree with this. Last night I was updating my LoL client to latest patch. And decided to play some sc2 (didnt play for 2 months). 1st game. TvP on xel naga. Protoss proxies two gates, i build bunker, cheese fails and he tries dt rush which fails again. 2nd game. TvP. 1-1-1, he ragequits. 3rd game. I'm bored and go 3v3. We start on some shitty small map. TTZvsTTP. Enemy builds mass MM and stalkers, we know that and respond with mass marine, tank, roach (told zerg to build banelings). They attack we die, game is over. Concluding above-said games, I didn't know if my opponent was better or worse than me. It was like some random decisions in the beginning lead to the outcome. Thats why I think Morrow's 5th point is the real reason for inconsisent tournaments and "cuz its a shit game". sorry for rant. So you got cheesed first, then you all inned 2nd game, then you played a crappy 3vs3 in a game you admittedly don't really play anymore. Big suprise you feel like you didn't know if your opponent was better than you. Your ladder experience doesn't have anything to do with what Morrow is saying about high level play and the fact that underdogs styles aren't known. | ||
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Zole999
Sweden20 Posts
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bgx
Poland6595 Posts
On February 03 2012 00:53 jinixxx123 wrote: o wait, broodwar must be a shit game as well mr b teamer. You were b-teamer there and u are b-teamer here as well. Looks about right to me. If idra was owning face in starcraft 2 then i'd call it a shit game. I always found Idra play so 1 dimensional, BUT Idra was much more interesting and much more impressive in BW even if i hate his mannerisms. His play vs Stork and other good players were much more of a testiment to player skill than his whole sc2 career which revolved around how many "D"s i need to press at right time. | ||
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
On February 03 2012 17:10 bokeevboke wrote: Totally agree with this. Last night I was updating my LoL client to latest patch. And decided to play some sc2 (didnt play for 2 months). 1st game. TvP on xel naga. Protoss proxies two gates, i build bunker, cheese fails and he tries dt rush which fails again. 2nd game. TvP. 1-1-1, he ragequits. 3rd game. I'm bored and go 3v3. We start on some shitty small map. TTZvsTTP. Enemy builds mass MM and stalkers, we know that and respond with mass marine, tank, roach (told zerg to build banelings). They attack we die, game is over. Concluding above-said games, I didn't know if my opponent was better or worse than me. It was like some random decisions in the beginning lead to the outcome. Thats why I think Morrow's 5th point is the real reason for inconsisent tournaments and "cuz its a shit game". sorry for rant. Is this a joke post? Not sure how your random casual ladder experience is relevant to a discussion on high level sc2 variance.. | ||
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
On February 03 2012 17:16 Zole999 wrote: The answer is simple. The game is still too new and the best have probably not started playing it yet. Just look at BW, it's not a very big variation of winners there, is it? Look at SC2, not a very big variation in winners there, is it? | ||
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Grohg
United States243 Posts
On February 03 2012 16:52 Sinensis wrote: Flash 432-166 (72.24%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W MVP 128-44 (74.42%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W Nestea 32-22 (59.26%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L W L L Nestea ZvZ 16-5(76.19%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W W W L L Jaedong 451-215 (67.72%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L L L W Jaedong ZvZ 159-59 (72.94%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W W W L L W W L (astonishing) Bisu 360-185 (66.06%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W L W W W L W W W MC 206-82 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L W L W W W W W MMA 98-39 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W L W W W Fantasy 241-152 (61.32%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W L W W W W W W Kind of fascinating actually... I think this is actually more insightful than a lot of other information thrown around in the thread so far. Someone might have one hiccup in the later stages of a tournament and crash out while some newer player shows up to take the throne for a season. At this point we should expect excellent new players to emerge fairly often. This is the reason that SC2 being in its infant stage is actually relevant. In a year if the "top" pros aren't anywhere near the top and completely crumble then I will believe the notion that it is inconsistent. Another reason that this inconsistency is sometimes skewed comes down to the fact that SC2 is heavily global unlike many other games. When we have tournaments with various skill levels, you end up with a top NA pro winning a tournament in impressive fashion. MLG has a lot of the top foreigners for instance. However, there might be only 6-8 Koreans also playing there. Naturally we should expect that some foreigners will avoid the higher-tiered Koreans for the most part and be able to outclass inferior opponents quite handily. The fact is more often than not, when a foreigner wins a tournament, it tends to be somewhere that the best players aren't playing. Then, when said foreigner gets into the GSL and plays in Code A and Code S, many people expect them to repeat results from the past. It's not an even scale. So when a player like Huk of IdrA crash out of Code S and Code A, you have a fan base that scratches their collective head wondering how someone so dominant before is so weak now. However, this is totally logical when you look at how good the Korean standard is. The GSL itself seems volatile sometimes with players crushing the competition one season and then falling early on the next (Nestea anyone?). With GSL season 1-3 up now to watch, I think everyone should go and see how incredibly bad the play was in general. This uncertainty only increased the likelihood of something new showing up to completely take someone by surprise. Heavy gateway timing used to destroy Zerg players when they first started being used. Now, it's standard to see that and people don't flat out die as often as they used to. The metagame MUST stabilize before this feeling of coinflip syndrome is gone. ZvT is much different than it was a year ago and balance patches have changed the game in the middle of GSL seasons even. This is something that cannot be overlooked. When infestors were nerfed, the ZvP metagame had to shift. Losses for a Zerg who was comfortable with infestors at this point would be more common because the strategy had to change. There has been too much volatility in the metagame if anything. The fact that we have players who actually have incredibly impressive records despite these rapid changes in balance and the metagame actually enhances the idea that SC2 can and will be a game with players who continually maintain unnaturally good win rates. For a while in fact, 3 names represented the races, MVP, Nestea and MC. We are just now adding to that list of great players. All of the naysayers can continue to do just that but it's naive to say that the game is too unpredictable and no one can possibly dominate it because it's random and imbalanced. Will there be balancing acts still to come? You bet your ass there will. Will there be players who come from nowhere and take games off of the current champions? Yep, and we see it happening. The game will only improve in quality. If you don't believe me, find 4 or 5 sample games from players in the beta and find an additional 4 or 5 from each of the following months up until now. Watch how the games get exponentially better and the strategies become safer. The great players continue to optimize the game and their win rates differentiate them from the rest of the pack. | ||
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Thurokiir
United States779 Posts
On February 03 2012 08:39 zezamer wrote: Why NA players always complain more about the game than players from other regions. Because NA players are lazy as fuck and look for excuses external to themselves for their failures versus internally because they were coddled shits. It's why NA is a goddamned joke for top tier laddering. | ||
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nvrs
Greece481 Posts
On February 03 2012 00:41 MichaelJLowell wrote: In This Post: Overrated players construct an imaginary set of rules for how the game should be played, perform accordingly, and lash out at the game because of it. Or maybe he's trying to sell that high-quality, 10.2-ounce, one-hundred-percent cotton T-shirt linked in his signature, a T-Shirt detailing the wacky adventures of one IdrA "IdrA" Grackenhauer, which can be yours for the low price of $24.95 and ships in one to three business days. I can't tell. spot on dude | ||
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Wildmoon
Thailand4189 Posts
On February 03 2012 16:52 Sinensis wrote: Flash 432-166 (72.24%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W MVP 128-44 (74.42%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W Nestea 32-22 (59.26%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L W L L Nestea ZvZ 16-5(76.19%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W W W L L Jaedong 451-215 (67.72%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L L L W Jaedong ZvZ 159-59 (72.94%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W W W L L W W L (astonishing) Bisu 360-185 (66.06%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W L W W W L W W W MC 206-82 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L W L W W W W W MMA 98-39 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W L W W W Fantasy 241-152 (61.32%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W L W W W W W W Kind of fascinating actually... This post just made OP invalid. Using randomness as an excuse that someone lose a match is quite silly. | ||
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lorkac
United States2297 Posts
On February 03 2012 18:09 Wildmoon wrote: This post just made OP invalid. Using randomness as an excuse that someone lose a match is quite silly. Hell no. Those are just numbers and actual recent and overall records. Facts. No way those facts can overcome gut feeling. My opinions are much more solid than actual numbers. | ||
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gngfn
United States1726 Posts
On February 03 2012 16:52 Sinensis wrote: Flash 432-166 (72.24%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W MVP 128-44 (74.42%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W Nestea 32-22 (59.26%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L W L L Nestea ZvZ 16-5(76.19%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W W W L L Jaedong 451-215 (67.72%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L L L W Jaedong ZvZ 159-59 (72.94%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W W W L L W W L (astonishing) Bisu 360-185 (66.06%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W L W W W L W W W MC 206-82 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L W L W W W W W MMA 98-39 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W L W W W Fantasy 241-152 (61.32%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W L W W W W W W Kind of fascinating actually... Why are you using the numbers from the international database? Is it because it makes the records for the SC2 players look much better? | ||
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Hinanawi
United States2250 Posts
On February 03 2012 16:52 Sinensis wrote: Flash 432-166 (72.24%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W MVP 128-44 (74.42%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W Nestea 32-22 (59.26%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L W L L Nestea ZvZ 16-5(76.19%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W W W L L Jaedong 451-215 (67.72%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L L L W Jaedong ZvZ 159-59 (72.94%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W W W L L W W L (astonishing) Bisu 360-185 (66.06%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W L W W W L W W W MC 206-82 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L W L W W W W W MMA 98-39 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W L W W W Fantasy 241-152 (61.32%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W L W W W W W W Kind of fascinating actually... Irrelevant data, it's like comparing your old high school's chess club winrates with international grandmasters' winrates. If/when more than a couple actual good players start coming to SC2, expect those players' winrates to narrow down closer to 50%. Remember kids, the best way to lie is with statistics. | ||
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nvrs
Greece481 Posts
On February 03 2012 16:52 Sinensis wrote: Flash 432-166 (72.24%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W MVP 128-44 (74.42%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W W W W W W W W W Nestea 32-22 (59.26%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L W L L Nestea ZvZ 16-5(76.19%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W W W L L Jaedong 451-215 (67.72%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W L W L L L W Jaedong ZvZ 159-59 (72.94%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L L W W W L L W W L (astonishing) Bisu 360-185 (66.06%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): L W L W W W L W W W MC 206-82 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W L W L W W W W W MMA 98-39 (71.53%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W W W W L W W W Fantasy 241-152 (61.32%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W W W L W W W W W W Kind of fascinating actually... Combine this awesome post with Morrows who brilliantly describes how poor is GSL's format that lets ppl prepare for their opponent and you may conclude that OP is just wrong and misleading. I do admit that the pros have a valid point when stating the obvious BO losses problem, let's hope this can get fixed at some point. | ||
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