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TLPD Winrate Charts: December - Page 4

Forum Index > SC2 General
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secretary bird
Profile Joined September 2011
447 Posts
January 02 2012 13:22 GMT
#61
If anything balance is better than last month because 43% wins for Zerg was a little low.

I call bullshit on terrans dominating TvP because of 52% btw.
sopas
Profile Joined July 2011
509 Posts
January 02 2012 13:23 GMT
#62
On January 02 2012 22:22 secretary bird wrote:
If anything balance is better than last month because 43% wins for Zerg was a little low.

I call bullshit on terrans dominating TvP because of 52% btw.

whatu shuld call bs on is terran recently whining about tvp tbh
Elwar
Profile Joined August 2010
953 Posts
January 02 2012 13:26 GMT
#63
On January 02 2012 20:54 ZenithM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 20:35 Elwar wrote:
Terran started dominating late game TvP with ghost/viking and protoss reintroduced the turtle-to-mothership back to PvZ. Zergs are starting to deal with motherships much better, though I've yet to see a convincing answer to late game terran from any protoss.


I like this kind of ridiculous generalization. We've not seen THAT many games ending with a mothership PvZ...

Of course its a ridiculous generalization. I was ascribing single metagame changes to a minor balance shift over a large generalised pool of games. Although I disagree we haven't seen that many games ending with a mothership in PvZ in games that go to the late-game. Of course most ZvPs are all-ins from one player or the other, but mothership off 3-4 bases for those games that go to maxed armies is back in a huge way. Like nearly every game a protoss can afford it, they get it.
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States16126 Posts
January 02 2012 13:27 GMT
#64
On January 02 2012 20:34 Dragar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 20:32 Silidons wrote:
On January 02 2012 20:30 MilesTeg wrote:
PvZ favouring Protoss again, I can't say I'm surprised. It's only going to get worse IMO.

Some people like MC had good runs. That is the only reason it went up.


Which should immediately scream that these statistics shouldn't be taken as particularly useful, if one player can flip who the matchup favours.


well hell that's how I've felt about TLPD statistics since I first saw them.
aka: KTVindicare the Geeky Bartender
prOpVikingBB2
Profile Joined January 2011
Sweden273 Posts
January 02 2012 13:30 GMT
#65
If by gold level scrubs you mean the entire low to mid masters in EU and NA I totally agree with you.

Yea
I wondered why the baseball was getting bigger, then it hit me.
winthrop
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Hong Kong956 Posts
January 02 2012 13:32 GMT
#66
terran player performance is better.
not a balance issue.
Incredible Miracle
secretary bird
Profile Joined September 2011
447 Posts
January 02 2012 13:38 GMT
#67
On January 02 2012 22:23 sopas wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 22:22 secretary bird wrote:
If anything balance is better than last month because 43% wins for Zerg was a little low.

I call bullshit on terrans dominating TvP because of 52% btw.

whatu shuld call bs on is terran recently whining about tvp tbh


We all know what this thread looked like when terran had 55% instead of protoss like last month though.
box-killa
Profile Joined January 2011
Australia13 Posts
January 02 2012 13:45 GMT
#68
Hey man, we really appreciate these stats. Thanks so much for your hard work every month to get these out.

Thou shalt not pass
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 02 2012 13:47 GMT
#69
On January 02 2012 21:59 StarcraftNerd1547 wrote:
I think the thing about TvP is that unless you have godly micro as T it's incredibly hard to win a late game engagement as terran. The reason why terran though is favored in these charts though is that in pro-level terrans has that micro which i was talking about and protoss can't do much about about it as TvP engagements is mostly about what terran does. If terran does a shit job and misses all EMP and gets his vikings kiled before defeating the toss army he loses, if he hits all EMP and kills every collosi before they can do significant damage he wins. This is why pros with good micro wins TvP and gold-level scrubs loses it.

I feel like the matchup needs a rework.


So they should change the match up so you can miss your EMPs and lose your vikings, but still win the fight? I don't think they should change the game to make easier. Now if you want to talk about the PvT match up being to unstable for both sides, that's a discussion worth having. That match up is filled with one sided victories due to one missed forced field, emp, storm, stim or blink.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Badfatpanda
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States9719 Posts
January 02 2012 13:47 GMT
#70
On January 02 2012 20:15 ToastieNL wrote:
TvP is likely changing because
A- people learned to aim with smaller EMP
B- Skymehci s being developped and P needs to adapt
C- The core problem of the matchup (Colossi strong gateway weak) hasn't been attacked
D- Terran goes 2 engi bay faster than 2 forges for P


What? these are from professional matches.
Skymech hasn't been seen being used other than here and there in a random bo3 since beta against protoss.
People aren't learning to aim with EMP any more than 3 months ago, they've just been getting more ghosts.
The core problem of the matchup is warpgate remax and zealots ability to tank damage for Protoss AOE units so well.
And Terran getting ebays earlier than Protoss STILL end up with Protoss hitting 3/3 first because of chronoboost.

Come on man.
Music is a higher revelation than all wisdom and philosophy. -Beethoven | Mech isn't a build, it's a way of life. -MajOr | Charlie.Sheen: "What is sarcastic, kids who have no courage to fight?" | #TerranPride #yolo #swag -Naama after 2-0'ing MC at HSC VI
Zarahtra
Profile Joined May 2010
Iceland4053 Posts
January 02 2012 13:49 GMT
#71
On January 02 2012 20:32 ShoWTimE94 wrote:
i dont feel like terrans allin more. imo rather less than prepatch.
the only thing i noticed in pvt is that more and more terrans realized that they can use a ability called personal cloaking and then snipe your obs with vikings and emp simply everything.

Can only say that most pro terrans that I watch streaming seem to just always do soem kind of allin against protoss. The trend I've been noticing is the 2 base big brother of 111, same combination of units, just now with stim and more slowpushing(starting a bit further back that is).
SeaSwift
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Scotland4486 Posts
January 02 2012 13:50 GMT
#72
On January 02 2012 22:47 Badfatpanda wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 20:15 ToastieNL wrote:
TvP is likely changing because
A- people learned to aim with smaller EMP
B- Skymehci s being developped and P needs to adapt
C- The core problem of the matchup (Colossi strong gateway weak) hasn't been attacked
D- Terran goes 2 engi bay faster than 2 forges for P


What? these are from professional matches.
Skymech hasn't been seen being used other than here and there in a random bo3 since beta against protoss.
People aren't learning to aim with EMP any more than 3 months ago, they've just been getting more ghosts.
The core problem of the matchup is warpgate remax and zealots ability to tank damage for Protoss AOE units so well.
And Terran getting ebays earlier than Protoss STILL end up with Protoss hitting 3/3 first because of chronoboost.

Come on man.


I agree with most of this, but Skymech is definitely seeing a resurgence for particularly strong timing attacks (see: Jjakji's TvP). I don't know if this counts as skymech, but MKP in particular loves going 1-1-1 with Hellions/Medivacs in TvP.
R!!
Profile Joined November 2011
Brazil938 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-02 13:57:52
January 02 2012 13:55 GMT
#73
On January 02 2012 22:47 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 21:59 StarcraftNerd1547 wrote:
I think the thing about TvP is that unless you have godly micro as T it's incredibly hard to win a late game engagement as terran. The reason why terran though is favored in these charts though is that in pro-level terrans has that micro which i was talking about and protoss can't do much about about it as TvP engagements is mostly about what terran does. If terran does a shit job and misses all EMP and gets his vikings kiled before defeating the toss army he loses, if he hits all EMP and kills every collosi before they can do significant damage he wins. This is why pros with good micro wins TvP and gold-level scrubs loses it.

I feel like the matchup needs a rework.


So they should change the match up so you can miss your EMPs and lose your vikings, but still win the fight? I don't think they should change the game to make easier. Now if you want to talk about the PvT match up being to unstable for both sides, that's a discussion worth having. That match up is filled with one sided victories due to one missed forced field, emp, storm, stim or blink.

The win ratio of 30 zealots with 3/3 and charge seems pretty solid to me, there's a reason why a PvT monster like Polt says that he feels like he has to either 14cc or 1/1/1 against random ladder scrubs in the new big maps.
I like the part where sense is considered a common, settled thing.
ntssauce
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany750 Posts
January 02 2012 13:57 GMT
#74
because people finally get that you don't just add 1 ghost to your army as they did before but MASS them 100% of toss army emped even if a lot get killed...
MMA and Alive you are the best! | Goodbye ST_Sound ~
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-02 14:06:47
January 02 2012 14:00 GMT
#75
On January 02 2012 22:47 Badfatpanda wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 20:15 ToastieNL wrote:
TvP is likely changing because
A- people learned to aim with smaller EMP
B- Skymehci s being developped and P needs to adapt
C- The core problem of the matchup (Colossi strong gateway weak) hasn't been attacked
D- Terran goes 2 engi bay faster than 2 forges for P


What? these are from professional matches.
Skymech hasn't been seen being used other than here and there in a random bo3 since beta against protoss.
People aren't learning to aim with EMP any more than 3 months ago, they've just been getting more ghosts.
The core problem of the matchup is warpgate remax and zealots ability to tank damage for Protoss AOE units so well.
And Terran getting ebays earlier than Protoss STILL end up with Protoss hitting 3/3 first because of chronoboost.

Come on man.


So, if there are only problems coming from Protoss OPness, how do you explain the even winrate? Better, Terran is actually ahead.

My only problem with Terran is the strength of their one base play because of minerals oversaturation with mules. This is really problematic, design wise. Why would they be allowed to have 25% more income on one base than Protoss or Zerg (you saturate with roughly 16-20 SCV and a MULE mines like 4 SCVs so it's literally 20-25% more mining)? It's gigantic and emphasizes all-in play, because of the momentum you gain over the over races.

The rest I'm ready to acknowledge everything you want, from "chargelots a-move boohoohoo OP, I must stutter step and it's hard " to "mech is so bad, why can't I go mech even though Protoss can't go stargate either :'(".
But I'd like the one base terran imbalance (in my humble opinion) to be dealt with, first. Then, nerf Protoss to the ground if you want.
SeaSwift
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Scotland4486 Posts
January 02 2012 14:00 GMT
#76
On January 02 2012 22:55 R!! wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 22:47 Plansix wrote:
On January 02 2012 21:59 StarcraftNerd1547 wrote:
I think the thing about TvP is that unless you have godly micro as T it's incredibly hard to win a late game engagement as terran. The reason why terran though is favored in these charts though is that in pro-level terrans has that micro which i was talking about and protoss can't do much about about it as TvP engagements is mostly about what terran does. If terran does a shit job and misses all EMP and gets his vikings kiled before defeating the toss army he loses, if he hits all EMP and kills every collosi before they can do significant damage he wins. This is why pros with good micro wins TvP and gold-level scrubs loses it.

I feel like the matchup needs a rework.


So they should change the match up so you can miss your EMPs and lose your vikings, but still win the fight? I don't think they should change the game to make easier. Now if you want to talk about the PvT match up being to unstable for both sides, that's a discussion worth having. That match up is filled with one sided victories due to one missed forced field, emp, storm, stim or blink.

The win ratio of 30 zealots with 3/3 and charge seems pretty solid to me, there's a reason why a PvT monster like Polt says that he feels like he has to either 14cc or 1/1/1 against random ladder scrubs in the new big maps.


Source?
Markwerf
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands3728 Posts
January 02 2012 14:01 GMT
#77
Don't assume too much from this data, a non-parametric regression like this one is very sensative to each months data which in some graphs might not be that much. For example PvT korea december is probably not played that much so if T did better there it doesn't mean that much..

Also you have to consider that only the top games are taken so unlike ladder stats for example there isn't corrected for rank here. For example the last patch might have buffed PvZ and PvT, which in turn can cause more P to qualify for the tournaments based on their PvZ for example. In tournaments the PvT results could actually go down then because PvZ was buffed more then PvT. Just an example but many, many effects like these can happen. A narrow observational study like this simply can't reveal things like matchup balance well. Also you can not really assume trends from these lines too much because they are very swingy by nature, the exact line also depends very much on the bin width you choose (month here).

Contrasting this with ladder statistics would be nice, ladder stats corrected for rank are the best way to look at balance still if that's your goal imo.
R!!
Profile Joined November 2011
Brazil938 Posts
January 02 2012 14:02 GMT
#78
On January 02 2012 23:00 SeaSwift wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 22:55 R!! wrote:
On January 02 2012 22:47 Plansix wrote:
On January 02 2012 21:59 StarcraftNerd1547 wrote:
I think the thing about TvP is that unless you have godly micro as T it's incredibly hard to win a late game engagement as terran. The reason why terran though is favored in these charts though is that in pro-level terrans has that micro which i was talking about and protoss can't do much about about it as TvP engagements is mostly about what terran does. If terran does a shit job and misses all EMP and gets his vikings kiled before defeating the toss army he loses, if he hits all EMP and kills every collosi before they can do significant damage he wins. This is why pros with good micro wins TvP and gold-level scrubs loses it.

I feel like the matchup needs a rework.


So they should change the match up so you can miss your EMPs and lose your vikings, but still win the fight? I don't think they should change the game to make easier. Now if you want to talk about the PvT match up being to unstable for both sides, that's a discussion worth having. That match up is filled with one sided victories due to one missed forced field, emp, storm, stim or blink.

The win ratio of 30 zealots with 3/3 and charge seems pretty solid to me, there's a reason why a PvT monster like Polt says that he feels like he has to either 14cc or 1/1/1 against random ladder scrubs in the new big maps.


Source?

Watching his stream whenever he is up, you can watch the vods.
I like the part where sense is considered a common, settled thing.
Dalavita
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1113 Posts
January 02 2012 14:02 GMT
#79
On January 02 2012 23:00 SeaSwift wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 22:55 R!! wrote:
On January 02 2012 22:47 Plansix wrote:
On January 02 2012 21:59 StarcraftNerd1547 wrote:
I think the thing about TvP is that unless you have godly micro as T it's incredibly hard to win a late game engagement as terran. The reason why terran though is favored in these charts though is that in pro-level terrans has that micro which i was talking about and protoss can't do much about about it as TvP engagements is mostly about what terran does. If terran does a shit job and misses all EMP and gets his vikings kiled before defeating the toss army he loses, if he hits all EMP and kills every collosi before they can do significant damage he wins. This is why pros with good micro wins TvP and gold-level scrubs loses it.

I feel like the matchup needs a rework.


So they should change the match up so you can miss your EMPs and lose your vikings, but still win the fight? I don't think they should change the game to make easier. Now if you want to talk about the PvT match up being to unstable for both sides, that's a discussion worth having. That match up is filled with one sided victories due to one missed forced field, emp, storm, stim or blink.

The win ratio of 30 zealots with 3/3 and charge seems pretty solid to me, there's a reason why a PvT monster like Polt says that he feels like he has to either 14cc or 1/1/1 against random ladder scrubs in the new big maps.


Source?


He did mention protoss being OP in one of his stream sessions, although it might have been jokingly.
Trowa127
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom1230 Posts
January 02 2012 14:05 GMT
#80
On January 02 2012 23:02 R!! wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2012 23:00 SeaSwift wrote:
On January 02 2012 22:55 R!! wrote:
On January 02 2012 22:47 Plansix wrote:
On January 02 2012 21:59 StarcraftNerd1547 wrote:
I think the thing about TvP is that unless you have godly micro as T it's incredibly hard to win a late game engagement as terran. The reason why terran though is favored in these charts though is that in pro-level terrans has that micro which i was talking about and protoss can't do much about about it as TvP engagements is mostly about what terran does. If terran does a shit job and misses all EMP and gets his vikings kiled before defeating the toss army he loses, if he hits all EMP and kills every collosi before they can do significant damage he wins. This is why pros with good micro wins TvP and gold-level scrubs loses it.

I feel like the matchup needs a rework.


So they should change the match up so you can miss your EMPs and lose your vikings, but still win the fight? I don't think they should change the game to make easier. Now if you want to talk about the PvT match up being to unstable for both sides, that's a discussion worth having. That match up is filled with one sided victories due to one missed forced field, emp, storm, stim or blink.

The win ratio of 30 zealots with 3/3 and charge seems pretty solid to me, there's a reason why a PvT monster like Polt says that he feels like he has to either 14cc or 1/1/1 against random ladder scrubs in the new big maps.


Source?

Watching his stream whenever he is up, you can watch the vods.


I think its crazy that people are stilllll complaining because this game isn't balanced around diamond league. The stats are fairly clear - in December, the match up was slightly Terran favoured across the board. Thats not a lie, its a fact. I agree that the match up feels very boring to watch - as pointed out above, its usually one specific action like a missed force field or EMP, one big battle and then its just who wins wins the game, which is pretty bad design. But considering the amount of QQ this month from Terran players regarding the match up, these stats seem to be pretty good vindication for everyone who said 'lets see what happens over the next few months.'
Bling, MC, Snute, HwangSin, Deranging (<3) fan. 'Full name - ESP ORTS' Vote hotbid. Vote ESPORTS.
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