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On November 16 2011 05:02 Piledriver wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 04:56 SpaceYeti wrote:
The problem with this announcement is that a lot of people are going to suddenly get active and these figures will not be accurate come Dec. 13th because more people are playing more games.
Unless I'm really misunderstanding something. Assuming that the number of people who suddenly become active are normally distributed in terms of MMR, then the figures will still be accurate come December.
This is the main thing i was wondering, thanks for clearing that up. So, can anyone confirm, the sudden influx of players/games played will not affect the target point goals to promote?
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On November 16 2011 04:56 SpaceYeti wrote:
The problem with this announcement is that a lot of people are going to suddenly get active and these figures will not be accurate come Dec. 13th because more people are playing more games.
Unless I'm really misunderstanding something.
The promotion boundaries are generally fixed, unless Blizzard tweaks them by hand. This is because MMRs generally bear a stable relationship to percentile in the population.
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On November 16 2011 05:13 fallore wrote:
This is the main thing i was wondering, thanks for clearing that up. So, can anyone confirm, the sudden influx of players/games played will not affect the target point goals to promote?
Shouldn't have anything to do with it. An influx of people may make an individual's MMR move up or down depending on how those players stand within the population, but it won't change the promotion boundaries because the relationship of MMR to percentile, like I say, is pretty stable.
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United States12244 Posts
Okay I'm still analyzing here, but let's think this out.
Season 4 began on Oct 25 and will lock on Dec 13. This means 630 bonus pool for Master, 630*0.58=365 bonus pool for lower leagues over that period. If you deduct the max bonus pool for a particular league, you're left with roughly the amount of adjusted points that will equate to a promotion. This presumably factors in the confidence buffer as well, and constitutes (mostly) the max adjusted points required to go from the bottom of one league to the bottom of the next league. That is, this chart is not counting division tiers.
I wonder if it's possible, given that we know how many division tiers are in each league, to determine rough estimates of what the point offsets per division tier are? For example, we know Diamond has 7 tiers since we've proven it before, and the point requirement they've provided is 900. 900 - 365 = 535 adjusted points, 535 / 7 = ~76 per tier, correct for the confidence barrier, and the 76 reported value appears to be pretty close to the previously-established 63 value. This could mean that the confidence barrier is around 76 / 63 = 1.20x, which would mean that your MMR's moving average has to be 20% higher than the breakpoint in order to get promoted. We still need to look into this more to be sure.
Also worth noting in this chart is what we've been saying for a while: Blizzard has the ability to adjust the MMR breakpoints per league and per region independently until they get closer to the expected distribution. That's why the requirements aren't uniform per game type and per region.
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On November 16 2011 05:07 stokes17 wrote:
I guess so, But I believe the difference between tier one and tier 7 diamond is like a few hundred points... seems like it makes the 900 point value for masters promotion very vague
If the numbers are worst-case numbers, then you may be able to do a lot worse than 900 and still get promoted.
It's also possible that the number of division tiers per league has varied from season to season. I'm not sure we'd have any way to know this.
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On November 16 2011 05:02 Piledriver wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 04:56 SpaceYeti wrote:
The problem with this announcement is that a lot of people are going to suddenly get active and these figures will not be accurate come Dec. 13th because more people are playing more games.
Unless I'm really misunderstanding something. Assuming that the number of people who suddenly become active are normally distributed in terms of MMR, then the figures will still be accurate come December.
I feel like that is a big assumption tho. :/ I'm guessing the the number of people who care seriously about the league and rankings differs greatly with MMR.
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On November 16 2011 05:17 Excalibur_Z wrote:
For example, we know Diamond has 7 tiers since we've proven it before
Is there any particular reason to believe that this hasn't changed since it was deduced first season? I mean, if they were to have added or subtracted tiers since then, or even gotten rid of division tiers entirely, would we have noticed?
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On November 16 2011 05:21 Lysenko wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 05:17 Excalibur_Z wrote:
For example, we know Diamond has 7 tiers since we've proven it before Is there any particular reason to believe that this hasn't changed since it was deduced first season? I mean, if they were to have added or subtracted tiers since then, or even gotten rid of division tiers entirely, would we have noticed? This is a good point. We know they've changed a lot of things about leagues since Season 1, but what things have they changed behind the scenes that we don't know about?
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On November 16 2011 05:18 SpaceYeti wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 05:02 Piledriver wrote:
Assuming that the number of people who suddenly become active are normally distributed in terms of MMR, then the figures will still be accurate come December.
I feel like that is a big assumption tho. :/ I'm guessing the the number of people who care seriously about the league and rankings differs greatly with MMR.
If there were a huge influx of people in a certain MMR range, that influx would compress the MMRs of certain ranges of the population and spread out the MMR range among the people who came in. You'd still end up with a similar (probably not perfectly identical) relationship between MMR and percentile.
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wow this is amazing haha xD
Does this have any effect on the comprehensive guide to the ladder? These are just rough numbers right? Basically like they said, the points you need to promote in the table just shows how well you have to be doing (winning more than losing, playing against better players, etc.) so they're just telling us that rough magic number?
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So I need around 800 points to get into Diamond.
This is a great way to quantify my goal. It makes it that much more real.
I think I'll probably get in before reaching 800 points, however.
Thanks very much for the post.
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United States12244 Posts
On November 16 2011 05:21 Lysenko wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 05:17 Excalibur_Z wrote:
For example, we know Diamond has 7 tiers since we've proven it before Is there any particular reason to believe that this hasn't changed since it was deduced first season? I mean, if they were to have added or subtracted tiers since then, or even gotten rid of division tiers entirely, would we have noticed?
According to SC2Ranks, there are still 7 open divisions per game mode in Diamond, so I don't think the number of tiers has changed or will change. However, it might be possible that the offsets will change depending on how far they adjust the breakpoints, considering the offsets have a direct connection with MMR.
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On November 16 2011 05:30 Excalibur_Z wrote:
According to SC2Ranks, there are still 7 open divisions per game mode in Diamond
That there is a damn clever inference, my friend.
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I'm a rank 1 Diamond player constantly beating masters so I better get promoted this season or next.
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On November 16 2011 03:08 DoomsVille wrote:
You guys don't get it. You can't just get enough points by playing enough.
The point "requirements" are more than your bonus pool will accrue all season. This means that you absolutely must have a winrate > 50% in order to be promoted. What that means is your MMR is climbing.
They still use MMR as an indicator of promotions (which is why they say these are approximates and not exact numbers). They are just estimating what number of points will get your MMR high enough.
On the other hand, if you win 30 games in a row you'll probably be promoted regardless of your point total (because your MMR will have climbed enough).
Basically they are just using ladder points to approximate when your MMR will have reached high enough.
This is my interpretation of this as well.
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Finally we get some specific information about that topic.
in the beginning it was: Win and you get promoted
Now it is: Reach XXX Points and the chances of promotion are really big. huurayy! =)
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Wait I'm confused... ;\ I'm playing masters in 2v2 about 50% of the time and Im over 500 points short of the promo to masters. And I just got promoted to masters 4v4 and had like 600 points short.
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Funny part of all this is: if the players start playing more to strive for these numbers they just posted, then there's likely going to be some influence in said numbers (as in, average MMR threshold for promotion changes), and by releasing their estimates they'll influence results in an unforeseeable way, thus making the estimates fall short.
Maybe...
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On November 16 2011 06:00 SupLilSon wrote:
Wait I'm confused... ;\ I'm playing masters in 2v2 about 50% of the time and Im over 500 points short of the promo to masters. And I just got promoted to masters 4v4 and had like 600 points short.
Don't be, the numbers they point are not a definitive measure, and more importantly, those are the points they estimate you would need by the end of the season to get promoted. But promotions can occur mid-season if you have good results.
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Man i see i need to play way more games then i do if i ever want to get to masters xD
Won over 50% of my matches against master players, but then again i only played around 20 games the whole season  .
Good that the numbers are released, although this doesn't cover everything i guess.
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EPT
