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On November 16 2011 03:08 DoomsVille wrote:
You guys don't get it. You can't just get enough points by playing enough.
The point "requirements" are more than your bonus pool will accrue all season. This means that you absolutely must have a winrate > 50% in order to be promoted. What that means is your MMR is climbing.
They still use MMR as an indicator of promotions (which is why they say these are approximates and not exact numbers). They are just estimating what number of points will get your MMR high enough.
On the other hand, if you win 30 games in a row you'll probably be promoted regardless of your point total (because your MMR will have climbed enough).
Basically they are just using ladder points to approximate when your MMR will have reached high enough.
Thank god someone else gets it. This is not a new system, its just them giving a somewhat tangible measure of the MMR required for promotions.
Why would they do this? Probably because they are banking on people saying "oh wow I just have to get that many points, I should play more now!"
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On November 16 2011 03:56 KevinIX wrote:
I think they greatly overestimate the number of points you need to get promoted. I got promoted in 2v2s this season with far fewer points than they listed.
Those numbers are not the number of points you *need* to be promoted. Instead, what they're saying is that if you can hit those numbers, you're very likely to be promoted. For example, you may be able to get a promotion while using only a small fraction of your bonus points, and since bonus points don't affect promotion, your point value might be much lower.
However, by stating a number that assumes you've used all your bonus points, they can be relatively sure that people who hit those numbers are likely to be promoted.
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On November 16 2011 04:10 Shadrak wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 03:08 DoomsVille wrote:
You guys don't get it. You can't just get enough points by playing enough.
The point "requirements" are more than your bonus pool will accrue all season. This means that you absolutely must have a winrate > 50% in order to be promoted. What that means is your MMR is climbing.
They still use MMR as an indicator of promotions (which is why they say these are approximates and not exact numbers). They are just estimating what number of points will get your MMR high enough.
On the other hand, if you win 30 games in a row you'll probably be promoted regardless of your point total (because your MMR will have climbed enough).
Basically they are just using ladder points to approximate when your MMR will have reached high enough. Thank god someone else gets it. This is not a new system, its just them giving a somewhat tangible measure of the MMR required for promotions. Why would they do this? Probably because they are banking on people saying "oh wow I just have to get that many points, I should play more now!"
Exactly.
A better way to do it is to calculate the # of points you'd need now to hit that plateau if you only accrued bonus points (it's 12/day for Masters/GM, dunno for lower leagues). And compare.
So for me, I'm at 840. I'd need 980 to hit 1400 at end of season (420 bonus points rest of season). So I'm still relatively far from hitting GM.
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Um, aren't the divisions tiered before masters? Meaning 900 points in a tier1 diamond division may be equivalent to 1800 points in a tier 7 diamond division. Doesn't this mean the points valued listed are extremely general? Or am I missing something?
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Good for people who were curious and/or wanted a ladder goal to reach for. Not good for people who see these as set in stone numbers and the second they go 3 points over that goal will whine about how they should be promoted and how the system doesn't work. Good thing this place isn't b.net general forums..
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On November 16 2011 03:53 frankster wrote:
How does this tie in with the past work on MMR analysis? excalibr's if I remember correctly.
It's consistent with it.
Your ladder score consists of two components, your earned bonus points and a residual point score.
The system adjusts your residual point score based on your league and division, then compares it with your opponent's MMR to decide how many points to award or take away based on the game's result. This allows that part of your point score to move up and down with your MMR, once you've played enough games.
Those numbers they've quoted are almost certainly worst-case numbers, meaning assuming you use all your bonus pool and probably that you're in the lowest division tier. You can tell this because they phrased it as "if you hit these numbers, you're likely to get promoted," rather than "these are the numbers you need to get promoted."
Answering what minimum score a person needs to hit to get promoted is much more complicated, because it varies by division as well as when in the season a person hits that score (due to bonus points accruing along the way.)
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On November 16 2011 04:18 stokes17 wrote:
Um, aren't the divisions tiered before masters? Meaning 900 points in a tier1 diamond division may be equivalent to 1800 points in a tier 7 diamond division. Doesn't this mean the points valued listed are extremely general? Or am I missing something?
I'd guess based on how they phrased it that these are worst-case numbers, assuming that one's in the division tier that's hardest to get promoted out of.
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On November 16 2011 02:56 KiF1rE wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 02:51 Kodak wrote:On November 16 2011 02:45 KiF1rE wrote:
1400 is a joke for near grandmaster.... that means at 1600 or so i should have been promoted instead of sitting in master still... You do realize it's not talking about S3, right? s3 was the same 2 month length, so the values should still hold true... and if they truly mean near grandmaster because it works differently this stupid announcement from blizzard has actually 0 value to a competitive player asking the question, of how do i actually earn a league promotion.... besides crush GM's and still be stuck in masters? in season 3 i was getting paired with players like RSVP when they were in the top 16 range of GM. and im still masters why?
Season 3 was a bit over 3 months, so no.
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On November 16 2011 03:00 Sc2Null wrote:
people have to realize that they are probably not factoring in bonus pool but who knows.
They are almost certainly factoring in the bonus pool because they stated that the numbers assume that the season ends on a certain date.
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On November 16 2011 03:02 eleaf wrote:
1. for a long time we know that Blizzard always use MMR system to promote/demote between leagues. Yet this system has some kind of known issues that it's quite hard for some ppl to promote if you have just played too many games. Your MMR is so stable that you may be required to win more games to promote than a fresh account.
The implication that the system is incorrectly estimating the skill of very active players is not accurate. Regardless of how many games you've played, if you suddenly start winning more than you're losing, your MMR will trend upward.
The only impact of playing a small number of games is that the system is guessing your MMR based on a small amount of data, so you're more likely to get promoted or demoted as you play enough for it to guess your MMR more accurately.
Regardless, if you start winning more than you're losing, whether you've played 100 or 5000 games, your MMR will increase at the same rate.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On November 16 2011 04:14 FairForever wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 04:10 Shadrak wrote:On November 16 2011 03:08 DoomsVille wrote:
You guys don't get it. You can't just get enough points by playing enough.
The point "requirements" are more than your bonus pool will accrue all season. This means that you absolutely must have a winrate > 50% in order to be promoted. What that means is your MMR is climbing.
They still use MMR as an indicator of promotions (which is why they say these are approximates and not exact numbers). They are just estimating what number of points will get your MMR high enough.
On the other hand, if you win 30 games in a row you'll probably be promoted regardless of your point total (because your MMR will have climbed enough).
Basically they are just using ladder points to approximate when your MMR will have reached high enough. Thank god someone else gets it. This is not a new system, its just them giving a somewhat tangible measure of the MMR required for promotions. Why would they do this? Probably because they are banking on people saying "oh wow I just have to get that many points, I should play more now!" Exactly. A better way to do it is to calculate the # of points you'd need now to hit that plateau if you only accrued bonus points (it's 12/day for Masters/GM, dunno for lower leagues). And compare. So for me, I'm at 840. I'd need 980 to hit 1400 at end of season (420 bonus points rest of season). So I'm still relatively far from hitting GM.
A ray of light in a dark cave!
And of course, how do you get more points? or get more points ahead?
Same as always, same as it's always been, and as it always will be: to get into diamond league or whatever the next league up is, you need to get stronger at sc2. Improve your play, and win more games, and you'll get more MMR and points and eventually promotions.
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On November 16 2011 04:08 FairForever wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 03:56 KevinIX wrote:
I think they greatly overestimate the number of points you need to get promoted. I got promoted in 2v2s this season with far fewer points than they listed. This is how much you'd need (approx) at end of season to get promoted next season. If you're high enough you can get promoted mid-season, presumably with a much smaller # of points (since it's based on your Moving Average MMR, not your points - points is just a representation of your MMR and bonus pool).
Oh I see. That makes sense.
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This is an interesting and reasonable decision from them from a business standpoint, in my opinion. People are given a solid goal to work toward, math-lovers have some data to calculate games/wins (probably) needed for promotion, and hopefully it will decrease the amount of people complaining about not being promoted. It also makes it clear that simply being a good player is not enough, if you don't play a ton you won't get promoted. I know that I am more motivated now to play a bunch of games before the season is over. The only disappointing thing about this info release is that I have more than 700 points to go before I can be masters lol.
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On November 16 2011 02:16 carloselcoco wrote:I don;t know how to make a table 
It was interesting regardless. Thanks for the effort.
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Ohh crap, 640 points more to go if I want to get out of diamond. I bet I will move up sooner if I can keep winning 60-70% of my games like I have been doing for the last few days.. But I can't :D
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The problem with this announcement is that a lot of people are going to suddenly get active and these figures will not be accurate come Dec. 13th because more people are playing more games.
Unless I'm really misunderstanding something.
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Hmm this is interesting yet a little confusing. At least it's something by Blizzard on the topic for once.
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On November 16 2011 04:56 SpaceYeti wrote:
The problem with this announcement is that a lot of people are going to suddenly get active and these figures will not be accurate come Dec. 13th because more people are playing more games.
Unless I'm really misunderstanding something.
Assuming that the number of people who suddenly become active are normally distributed in terms of MMR, then the figures will still be accurate come December.
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On November 16 2011 04:20 Lysenko wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 04:18 stokes17 wrote:
Um, aren't the divisions tiered before masters? Meaning 900 points in a tier1 diamond division may be equivalent to 1800 points in a tier 7 diamond division. Doesn't this mean the points valued listed are extremely general? Or am I missing something? I'd guess based on how they phrased it that these are worst-case numbers, assuming that one's in the division tier that's hardest to get promoted out of.
I guess so, But I believe the difference between tier one and tier 7 diamond is like a few hundred points... seems like it makes the 900 point value for masters promotion very vague
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Based on this, I am probably not leaving bronze for another 2 seasons.
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EPT
