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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
On September 09 2019 08:52 BerserkSword wrote: Don’t think losing to stats or the season 3 code s champion would be an upset Agree to disagree I'd say losing to top-top koreans certainly wouldn't be a big upset, but it would be one nonetheless. Aligulac gives Serral a 76.45% chance to win against stats currently. That's not particularly close mate. And we don't even know who the Code S champion is yet lol | ||
Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:14 TentativePanda wrote: Agree to disagree I'd say losing to top-top koreans certainly wouldn't be a big upset, but it would be one nonetheless. Aligulac gives Serral a 76.45% chance to win against stats currently. That's not particularly close mate. And we don't even know who the Code S champion is yet lol It’s pretty known that aligulac is less accurate when you compare players from different insular regions though. It’s basically 2 separate pools for the players to earn rating points. | ||
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Kalera
United States338 Posts
On September 09 2019 08:16 NotSoHappy wrote: not really, maru is better there than anyone else. Not by much, if at all. He regularly loses series to other players. Even looking only at Code S: Just this season he lost to Solar and TY in group stages. Last season he went out in the Ro32 to Patience and Innovation. If you include weekenders, his record is not great. He lost in the first round of ST1 to Stats, which he had time to prepare for. He was swept by Stats in the first round of GSL vs the World, which again he had time to prepare for. At Katowice he failed to make it out of the Group Stage losing to Leenock, Trap, and Neeb. All in all, this suggests he is not that far from the pack. | ||
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MyLovelyLurker
France756 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:14 TentativePanda wrote: Agree to disagree I'd say losing to top-top koreans certainly wouldn't be a big upset, but it would be one nonetheless. Aligulac gives Serral a 76.45% chance to win against stats currently. That's not particularly close mate. And we don't even know who the Code S champion is yet lol Erhm, Asus ROG actually happened, and is knocking at the door. Don't overfit to the results of one GSL group when Stats is the only Protoss who's historically given Serral a run for his money. Furthermore, Maru called and would like his 54%-46% Serral Aligulac-inferred Bo5 prediction back. Not to take anything away from Serral who is becoming more and more of a literal statistical outlier, Tasteless. Top8 Kor Aligulac are within 110 points of each other, Serral minus Maru is now 180 points. We might soon have to call him Mister Two Sigma. | ||
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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:18 Shellshock wrote: It’s pretty known that aligulac is less accurate when you compare players from different insular regions though. It’s basically 2 separate pools for the players to earn rating points. Yeah, you're absolutely right. Did I say "Aligulac said so, so its fact"? No. Mainly my opinion is based on Serral's recent dominating performance at GSL vs The World and Montreal (more so they way he won than him winning). Also the fact that at GSL vs The World Korean players were straight up admitting Serral's the best. That's how good he is. | ||
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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:22 MyLovelyLurker wrote: Erhm, Asus ROG actually happened, and is knocking at the door. Don't overfit to the results of one GSL group when Stats is the only Protoss who's historically given Serral a run for his money. Furthermore, Maru called and would like his 54%-46% Serral Aligulac-inferred Bo5 prediction back. Not to take anything away from Serral who is becoming more and more of a literal statistical outlier, Tasteless. Top8 Kor Aligulac are within 110 points of each other, Serral minus Maru is now 180 points. We might soon have to call him Mister Two Sigma. People seem to be ignoring the fact that I agree Maru and Stats are insanely good, and it would be a minor upset for them to beat Serral. But still, it would be. You're right, Serral didn't win one fucking tournament. So effectively all you've said is that he can lose. Yes, he can, but it would be more surprising for him to lose. Maybe one day we get to see the Serral vs Maru match - if Maru can make it past the multiple players who have stomped him in those tournaments in the past that is. | ||
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UnLarva
458 Posts
Winners are remembered, but even Serral's most memorable and impactful losses cannot be called throw-ups or upsets per se (RO8 is still his worst since time immoriam) coming against other absolute top level players. Next Aligulac update will list 3 out of 4 new rating records, including all time high of ALL races: on top elite level its incredibly hard to keep up steady improvements without consistently overrunning other top level opponents with big margins. Bracket luck and general 'coin tossing' in the game has already very little to do with that, considering the time period of dominance, level of opponents, and win rates. GG! Keep up killing Serral! | ||
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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:29 TentativePanda wrote: People seem to be ignoring the fact that I agree Maru and Stats are insanely good, and it would be a minor upset for them to beat Serral. But still, it would be. You're right, Serral didn't win one fucking tournament. So effectively all you've said is that he can lose. Yes, he can, but it would be more surprising for him to lose. Maybe one day we get to see the Serral vs Maru match - if Maru can make it past the multiple players who have stomped him in those tournaments in the past that is. And similar to what ShellShock said, Aligulac doesn't penalize players for playing a very low number of games like Maru has. The reason his score doesnt go down is because he plays in very few tournaments, and in a couple recent ones he bombed out early. Do you really think he should be rated as the best Korean player right now? Lengthened | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:14 TentativePanda wrote: Agree to disagree I'd say losing to top-top koreans certainly wouldn't be a big upset, but it would be one nonetheless. Aligulac gives Serral a 76.45% chance to win against stats currently. That's not particularly close mate. And we don't even know who the Code S champion is yet lol Aligulac isn’t some be all end all gospel statistic site Serral has already lost premier tournaments to soo innovation and stats this year. Even reynor beats him in bo7 finals. Whoever makes it out of this code s is no underdog to serral imo. Except for trap since Protoss has been completely defanged | ||
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MyLovelyLurker
France756 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:29 TentativePanda wrote: People seem to be ignoring the fact that I agree Maru and Stats are insanely good, and it would be a minor upset for them to beat Serral. But still, it would be. You're right, Serral didn't win one fucking tournament. So effectively all you've said is that he can lose. Yes, he can, but it would be more surprising for him to lose. Maybe one day we get to see the Serral vs Maru match - if Maru can make it past the multiple players who have stomped him in those tournaments in the past that is. I think we're closer to agreement than you think, but I'll correct one fact : historically since 2018 Serral and Stats are tied 2-2 in series and 10-10 in maps, which is literally 50-50. A repeat Blizzcon finals between these two would most likely go 3-3 into coin flip, IMHO. | ||
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Fran_
United States1024 Posts
On September 09 2019 08:09 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Needs to win a GSL (not vs the world) for that This. | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:29 TentativePanda wrote: People seem to be ignoring the fact that I agree Maru and Stats are insanely good, and it would be a minor upset for them to beat Serral. But still, it would be. You're right, Serral didn't win one fucking tournament. So effectively all you've said is that he can lose. Yes, he can, but it would be more surprising for him to lose. Maybe one day we get to see the Serral vs Maru match - if Maru can make it past the multiple players who have stomped him in those tournaments in the past that is. If Maru and serral played a best of seven today my money is on Maru You’re free to believe that Maru is a slight underdog vs serral but it’s not objective fact especially after serral shows the most weakness in zvt, Terran got a massive ghost buff, and investors were nerfed. I wouldn’t call stats an underdog either before the prism nerf and OL buff Stats won their last two series | ||
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terribleplayer1
95 Posts
He seems to be in stronger form at this time this year than last year. Trully nothing like this in SC2 has ever existed, big favourite for blizzcon, maybe 30-40~% chance of taking it all imo. | ||
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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:42 BerserkSword wrote: If Maru and serral played a best of seven today my money is on Maru You’re free to believe that Maru is a slight underdog vs serral but it’s not objective fact especially after serral shows the most weakness in zvt, Terran got a massive ghost buff, and investors were nerfed. I wouldn’t call stats an underdog either before the prism nerf and OL buff Stats won their last two series Read my goddamn posts yo lmao You: "Aligulac isn’t some be all end all gospel statistic site" Me in a previous post: "Yeah, you're absolutely right. Did I say "Aligulac said so, so its fact"? No." You: "...but it’s not objective fact" Me: "Mainly my opinion is based...." Do you just not comprehend what I write or? | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On September 09 2019 10:05 TentativePanda wrote: Read my goddamn posts yo lmao You: "Aligulac isn’t some be all end all gospel statistic site" Me in a previous post: "Yeah, you're absolutely right. Did I say "Aligulac said so, so its fact"? No." You: "...but it’s not objective fact" Me: "Mainly my opinion is based...." Do you just not comprehend what I write or? I comprehend what you wrote you wrote this "it would be a minor upset for them to beat Serral. But still, it would be" "Yes, he can, but it would be more surprising for him to lose." as if the only difference in opinion is the degree of upset, not whether it's even an upset in the first place | ||
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tigon_ridge
482 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:22 MyLovelyLurker wrote: Erhm, Asus ROG actually happened, and is knocking at the door. Don't overfit to the results of one GSL group when Stats is the only Protoss who's historically given Serral a run for his money. Furthermore, Maru called and would like his 54%-46% Serral Aligulac-inferred Bo5 prediction back. Not to take anything away from Serral who is becoming more and more of a literal statistical outlier, Tasteless. Top8 Kor Aligulac are within 110 points of each other, Serral minus Maru is now 180 points. We might soon have to call him Mister Two Sigma. Maru's vZ MU is worlds above his other MUs. It's more interesting to examine players' strengths as a whole, not just based on who would win head-to-head. If you disregard Maru's vZ rating, his rating would be nearly identical to TY's. On the other hand, Serral's best MU is only 70 pts higher than his worst MU. That delta is the smallest delta of all the top10 players ranked in aligulac. Meaning: he's easily the most well-rounded player in the world. Combining this fact with that he's currently standing >180 pts above Maru speaks more about him as a player overall than whether or not he'd beat Maru in a Bo7. | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On September 09 2019 09:46 terribleplayer1 wrote: Serral just hit 3170 on Aligulac, the highest rating by far ever achieved, an insane string of wins, so few losses throughout the last 2 years. He seems to be in stronger form at this time this year than last year. Trully nothing like this in SC2 has ever existed, big favourite for blizzcon, maybe 30-40~% chance of taking it all imo. In this tournament Serral displayed a Blizzcon-like form, he seems to be playing way better than six months ago. | ||
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MyLovelyLurker
France756 Posts
On September 09 2019 10:31 tigon_ridge wrote: Maru's vZ MU is worlds above his other MUs. It's more interesting to examine players' strengths as a whole, not just based on who would win head-to-head. If you disregard Maru's vZ rating, his rating would be nearly identical to TY's. On the other hand, Serral's best MU is only 70 pts higher than his worst MU. That delta is the smallest delta of all the top10 players ranked in aligulac. Meaning: he's easily the most well-rounded player in the world. Combining this fact with that he's currently standing >180 pts above Maru speaks more about him as a player overall than whether or not he'd beat Maru in a Bo7. I think this is good point overall and I'd tend to agree. Most people focus on raw wins, rather than volatility- or consistency- adjusted level which, as some previous poster remarked, would make Serral's last two years form completely unbelievable. Maru's drawdowns this year and overall weekenders and TvP vulnerability certainly exist, and tarnish his record. But should a Serral-Maru Bo7 happen, and should Serral lose for instance 3-4, good luck with arguing that Serral is still the better player on the forums  . Especially when most of the argument that Serral should win a GSL to cement his status boils down to 'he hasn't won a long series against Maru yet' (his 2yr record against Koreans is >80% in matches, which means about 50% chance of him making GSL finals, and that includes early 2018 when he wasn't as dominant as for the last 18 months). | ||
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Anc13nt
1557 Posts
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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
On September 09 2019 10:30 BerserkSword wrote: I comprehend what you wrote you wrote this "it would be a minor upset for them to beat Serral. But still, it would be" "Yes, he can, but it would be more surprising for him to lose." as if the only difference in opinion is the degree of upset, not whether it's even an upset in the first place You're right in saying I stated it objectively, but I obviously don't have the TRUTH because that's impossible to have on subjects like these, therefore it was my admittedly subjective view on the truth, aka an opinion | ||
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