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On April 22 2011 10:24 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2011 07:43 Lightwip wrote:On April 21 2011 23:47 TwoToneTerran wrote:Jaedong deserves #1 unless he like chokes vs khan and loses a game and an ace game or something. I think his ZvP is still a bit suspect but there's absolutely no reason to say anything besides Jaedong #1 Flash #2 right now for PR's sake. I say this despite thinking Flash is still the better player. On April 21 2011 23:13 Lightwip wrote:
Hmm, no Oz or KT games this month. That makes things slightly more difficult.
1 Flash - meh
2 JD - I'd really like to see more games from him, but he's definitely on the way up.
3 Bisu - Quite a few achievements this month, but still needs some refinement. He should've won that last game vs Flash. The last game? The last game was just Flash being generally more solid in a long game. Bisu should've won the first game when Flash handed him a massive advantage on a silver platter and he proceeded to give us a Jaehoon from 08 level PvT. I think bisu could've won that. He basically was doing fine until that horrible attack at 6, even though he started with a disadvantage. Yes he "could" have won that game if he didn't make that attack at 6. But he chose to make the attack. And even if he hadn't the game would have been about even. Flash was the better player that game, ergo Flash deserved the win. Anyway, it's not really relevant to the PR anyway since Bisu's position of #3 is pretty much locked and the debate about Flash vs JD in 1/2 is more of an issue of JD's ZvP. But me speaking, I'd give JD #1 this month.
Agreed on both points, but what I was trying to say is that Flash doesn't look as invincible as before. It wasn't a one-sided game even though Flash started off with a decent advantage.
JD's ZvP problems haven't come up for a while. His ZvT has always looked good, though since he was losing to Flash and Light it seemed more like noob-bashing. but he's shown good games against Fantasy and Flash since, so yeah.
Whoa, high templar now!
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As of right now JD Flash Bisu is the only lineup that makes any sort of sense. It's been a long time since I've seen JD's ZvT look so perfect.
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On April 23 2011 00:40 Mortality wrote:
Really you are trying to infer too much from too little. At the end of the day you're faulting Flash for having the same record over only FIVE games while facing a *marginally* easier line-up when the truth is that the only players either person lost to is a member of TaekBaengLeeSsang. I hate to break it to you but Flash has limited control over which opponents he faces... you really can't blame him for shrugging off s2 unless you think he should have just decided not to play as his team's ace in the WL finals...
And while PvT is indeed Bisu's historical weak point it clearly isn't right now; PvP is. Take a look at his recent games against Free and Perfectman, not to mention that lately he can't seem to beat Stork at all, and that he's been out-played in some other games as well.
And that is why the PR is sticky. Yes, flash is a better player than bisu. But if the PR was just who is best, Flash should be #1 this month, and every month for the past 2 years. With a bigger sample size; yes, flash would have probably had a better showing overall, but we can only work with what we are given. I don't think FBH is one of the top 10 players, but we can't ignore the record he had last month, and he deserved a spot on the PR. similarly, S2 and/or ssak are not top 10, but they will most likely get a spot next month. Could Baby (a player we can agree is better then those two) control who he played this month (not counting losing his prelim group, which we can't hold against him because it didn't happen this month)? No, but a 0-0 record isn't going to get him on the list.
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On April 23 2011 03:04 hacklebeast wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2011 00:40 Mortality wrote:
Really you are trying to infer too much from too little. At the end of the day you're faulting Flash for having the same record over only FIVE games while facing a *marginally* easier line-up when the truth is that the only players either person lost to is a member of TaekBaengLeeSsang. I hate to break it to you but Flash has limited control over which opponents he faces... you really can't blame him for shrugging off s2 unless you think he should have just decided not to play as his team's ace in the WL finals...
And while PvT is indeed Bisu's historical weak point it clearly isn't right now; PvP is. Take a look at his recent games against Free and Perfectman, not to mention that lately he can't seem to beat Stork at all, and that he's been out-played in some other games as well. And that is why the PR is sticky. Yes, flash is a better player than bisu. But if the PR was just who is best, Flash should be #1 this month, and every month for the past 2 years. With a bigger sample size; yes, flash would have probably had a better showing overall, but we can only work with what we are given. I don't think FBH is one of the top 10 players, but we can't ignore the record he had last month, and he deserved a spot on the PR. similarly, S2 and/or ssak are not top 10, but they will most likely get a spot next month. Could Baby (a player we can agree is better then those two) control who he played this month (not counting losing his prelim group, which we can't hold against him because it didn't happen this month)? No, but a 0-0 record isn't going to get him on the list.
It's not just about who is best and if you think for a moment you should see how that can become sticky too: the "better" player might not live up to expectations and then what?
But even if we pretend that plenty of games were played this month -- laugh -- if two players produce comparable results in a given month and one of them has been ahead for the past 4 months + won in head-to-head (2-1) + is more well rounded, then I don't see why he should be ranked lower.
Furthermore, PR is a ranking released monthly, not a ranking that forgets the results of previous months.
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Oh, we can include results from past months? let me change my list
flash
jaedong
nada
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On April 23 2011 03:51 hacklebeast wrote:
Oh, we can include results from past months? let me change my list
flash
jaedong
nada
Now you are just being ridiculous.
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On April 23 2011 03:51 hacklebeast wrote:
Oh, we can include results from past months? let me change my list
flash
jaedong
nada
If you're going to be ridiculous then get it right. NaDa was the greatest player ever.
Don't be a douche.
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If there is a limit to how far we can reach back, where is it? I thought the first of the month made for a great cutoff point, but you seemed to disagree.
sorry if you found the sarcasm offensive. I didn't think it was that bad, but alright then.
edit: come to think of it, I don't think that the power ranking is based on "greatness". If it was, than shouldn't the power rankings just be who won "things" and not just games? This month it would be bisu with cluch playoff wins, then s2 with finals mvp award, then fantasy for day 1 performance with a 3 kill, (possibly hydra because he won an MSL, that wasn't this month, but I'm still confused by how far we can look back into history). Flash getting second in a Ro32 group is far from "greatness".
I do agree nada is the greatest so far.
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Since we started the new year, Jaedong's ZvT is at an 81% winrate... which it totally bad ass.
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On April 23 2011 10:08 hacklebeast wrote:
If there is a limit to how far we can reach back, where is it? I thought the first of the month made for a great cutoff point, but you seemed to disagree.
sorry if you found the sarcasm offensive. I didn't think it was that bad, but alright then.
edit: come to think of it, I don't think that the power ranking is based on "greatness". If it was, than shouldn't the power rankings just be who won "things" and not just games? This month it would be bisu with cluch playoff wins, then s2 with finals mvp award, then fantasy for day 1 performance with a 3 kill, (possibly hydra because he won an MSL, that wasn't this month, but I'm still confused by how far we can look back into history). Flash getting second in a Ro32 group is far from "greatness".
I do agree nada is the greatest so far.
I'll apologize because I was taking out some frustration on you that you didn't deserve. Lately I feel like this forum has declined a bit with people acting stupidly.
Every writer has there own take on exactly how much data to consider. In my mind there isn't really a limit, but rather a sort of weighting. Data from the past month gets weighted much more heavily and as you go back in time the weighting tapers off rapidly. But I don't personally just consider my perception of skill or the raw results (which may differ from my perception of skill -- remember when JD was 3-7 in his last 10 ZvT? Was it because he sucked? No. It was because his last 10 ZvT at the time were all vs Light and Flash. A player 10-0 vs scrubs has not proven he's better than 3-7 vs two of the greatest TvZers ever.), but also momentum and to some extent "meta" stuff, like how FBH lifted the spirits of Ace, a team that had been on a 16 game losing streak.
Bear in mind that even if you say you are only looking at the past month you aren't. When you think about Flash and Bisu and guys like that you are automatically going to have a bias based on the accomplishments they have accumulated in the past. If a player breaks Flash's tank push you will view it differently than if a player breaks Light's push even if they played an identical game of Starcraft. You will more readily dismiss a Protoss victory over Light since he has a reputation of failure in that match-up. So I actually think it's sort of hypocritical to view only one month's results.
For the past few months, Flash, Jaedong and Bisu have all been looking real strong. Jaedong was struggling a bit if you go further back but has been progressively building momentum. Flash looked stronger a while ago and has been very, very slowly losing momentum, like a faucet that drips a single drop of water only once every hour. Bisu has been a little more sporadic, a little more unpredictable, following up a stretch of suspect game play last month with a complete dismantling of Jaedong (note: the difference between Bisu in March and in April is clear by watching his games against JD... in March he wasn't able to achieve strong aerial dominance and so lacked the scouting information that would have enabled him to block those lurkers; in April his corsair moving shot on Fortress was just breath-taking, but the side of that which the observer can easily forget is that with his corsairs able to buzz around so much he acquires more information, allowing for better choices). Coming into this month I rate Flash as the leader.
For the past 6 months now, the only black mark on Flash's record was the terrible play (by S-class standards) he showed us in December, a large black mark, but a long time ago now. JD deserves the #1 in my opinion because he totally stepped up his game when it was needed. Regarding Flash/Bisu order, there's just not enough there for me to move up Bisu over Flash. Both of them were very, very solid in April, so I'm inclined to keep Flash ahead. As far as Flash being #2 in his Ro32 group, Bisu was #3 from the same group, so treating only #2 as a black mark for Flash would be an even huger blow for Bisu anyhow. But TBH I don't hold that against either because in the history of SC only a small handful of groups have been anywhere near that level. As I pointed out, the only one I can think of was NaDa/Oov/July/Clon from IOPS and Sea is tougher than Clon was by a lot. Just advancing from that group is a demonstration of greatness. We're talking 4 players with talent to be all 4 in the semis, although Sea has a habit of falling short of his potential in individual league.
TL;DR I'm not inclined to move Bisu ahead of Flash unless either Flash well and truly slips up or Bisu manages to overshadow him. The unfortunate reality for Bisu, as I already said, is that Flash proved (in his two matches against Bisu in group Death) that Bisu's victory was just one game.
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Bad days are understandable 
Flash is better than bisu, agreed. But if the PR is just "who is the best" than we should copy paste ELO. If the PR is a function of accomplishments and time, the we should just copy paste the kespa ranks, because I feel they have a good formula for calculating just that.
I think the PR should be more volatile than those two; embodying the phrase "what have you done for me lately?" I think that it should be the 10 players who showed the most impressive body of work considering win:loss, level of competition, the stage of competition, and the ambiguous "it" factor that players can show when they dominate an opponent.
Working with those constraints, Bisu has the same win ratio, slightly better competition, and won more on bigger stages. I guess it could be argued that bisu didn't "look" as dominant in his wins, but I felt that all of the TBLS games were rather one sided. And that's why I think bisu had a better month, and therefor should be 2nd.
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Japan11286 Posts
I agree with Mortality;
#1 - Jaedong - having stepped up when it mattered the most
#2 - Flash - duh, he advanced 2-1 from the G.O.D.
#3 - Bisu - for beating both 1 & 2 when it mattered and then lost (he could have won but he didn't) in the other important one.
for the rest of the ranking, I can't really recall much, so I just won't say anything.
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On April 23 2011 12:30 hacklebeast wrote:Bad days are understandable Flash is better than bisu, agreed. But if the PR is just "who is the best" than we should copy paste ELO. If the PR is a function of accomplishments and time, the we should just copy paste the kespa ranks, because I feel they have a good formula for calculating just that. I think the PR should be more volatile than those two; embodying the phrase "what have you done for me lately?" I think that it should be the 10 players who showed the most impressive body of work considering win:loss, level of competition, the stage of competition, and the ambiguous "it" factor that players can show when they dominate an opponent. Working with those constraints, Bisu has the same win ratio, slightly better competition, and won more on bigger stages. I guess it could be argued that bisu didn't "look" as dominant in his wins, but I felt that all of the TBLS games were rather one sided. And that's why I think bisu had a better month, and therefor should be 2nd.
Flash went 1-1 in SWL playoffs and 2-1 in death group. Bisu went 2-0 in SWL playoffs and 1-2 in death group, dropping from MSL (again). I hardly see how this shows either player as having truly had a better month.
And if you've been reading what I say month after month, then you should see that there's a great deal of volatility in what I do to begin with. I don't know where you get the idea that I advocate copying ELO and/or KeSPA; I merely believe that if two players have comparable results then the benefit of the doubt should go to the player with the stronger recent history. That player is Flash.
Edit: I believe you that -- aside from any bias you may naturally have just by looking at your tag and race -- you may be judging Bisu's "superior" month based on critical victories for the SWL crown. But the players knew they were in the group of death and put their all into that as well. Eead the interviews of Jaedong and Flash. The players practiced as if much more were at stake than just a Ro32 group. To say that Bisu's victory over Flash in SWL -- a single game -- matters more than clawing his way past Flash in SL because it was a "higher stage" ignores the fact that Bisu knew that more was at stake than just advancing from his MSL group: to advance would automatically mean that one of his strongest competitors would be eliminated.
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WL finals isn't a bigger stage than any MSL tournament set. It's like the all star games in sports -- a neat game halfway through the regular season before we get to the real deal of the playoffs.
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The WL finals would almost always be a lot more important than the Ro32 group-stage IMO, because normally those are just a cakewalk for the top players, simply a small step on the path leading to greater things. But this was different. The LR-thread for Group D has more pages than most Starleague finals. This was the ultimate group of death, and I honestly think Flash's 2-0 vs Bisu there means significantly more than Bisu's 1-0 vs Flash in WL.
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On April 23 2011 22:19 Holgerius wrote:
The WL finals would almost always be a lot more important than the Ro32 group-stage IMO, because normally those are just a cakewalk for the top players, simply a small step on the path leading to greater things. But this was different. The LR-thread for Group D has more pages than most Starleague finals. This was the ultimate group of death, and I honestly think Flash's 2-0 vs Bisu there means significantly more than Bisu's 1-0 vs Flash in WL.
Also look at the games themselves. Bisu's wins in WL clearly looks like a one time strategy. Not legit IMO.
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On April 24 2011 00:10 gen.Sun wrote:
Also look at the games themselves. Bisu's wins in WL clearly looks like a one time strategy. Not legit IMO.
Bisu's win was very legit. But it's a one-off trick. It's unlikely to work again and it's unlikely that we'll see a constant stream of different tricks. Group D results happen to prove this.
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EPT
