EPTI voted for randombum. I voted for him because I thought his mass pm was a nice touch. Also CDRdude pointed out he had a 100% voting accuracy in the last game. This plus mayor voting powers=dead mafia.
TL Mafia 2 [GG] - Page 25
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BWdero
Netherlands476 Posts
I voted for randombum. I voted for him because I thought his mass pm was a nice touch. Also CDRdude pointed out he had a 100% voting accuracy in the last game. This plus mayor voting powers=dead mafia. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
You guys are starting to use a lot of faulty logic! I'm going to get to all of it later with a large post, but for now Araav I can't believe you would say that Ghar doesn't have a convincing plan when NO ONE else even has a plan. And you want to be Mayor? Sorry, but that post actually gave me very good reason not to vote for you. "Lynch me to find out" does not mean he doesn't care about the Town - you are reaching really far into nothing with that statement. Ghar is the only person so far that has a solid plan and I've used plans similar to it in other games - it works. Empryean has no business being Mayor or Pardoner. That move shows incredibly bad strategic thinking for a Townie and would be of no use to us. Otherwise he is possibly a Mafia in disguise trying to force the town's hand - either way he doesn't belong in either role. As for you people asking about the DT plan: If more than 4 people PM Ghar about being DT thats GREAT for the Town. Because now we'd have a suspect list and people caught false role claiming meaning we certainly have some Mafia cornered. Also remember if we DO lose some DT roles somehow - we have Jacks. These players can be backup DTs if need be, so don't think we'd be dead asap because we lost 1 or 2 detectives somehow. I've said it before the Town needs focus, and Ghar's plan is a good place to start for this theme to work. Also, I am running for Mayor. I said it before but don't think I made it obvious. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2008 23:12 araav wrote: you so-called strategy is simply too superficial and could easily move to a Mayor lose for the town. At this stage of the game, it is best to vote for people who seem towny - i.e. DO not seem suspicious AT ALL: no clue-interpretations about them, no stupid moves (like Empy did) What the hell? You can NOT be serious with this post? This post is further showing me NOT to vote for you as Mayor. Come on, how can anyone not see this post says exactly why you shouldn't be in a Mayor or Pardoner role? You're accusing the guy off of 1 Day of clues when NO ONE can clear his or her name right now, and NO ONE can be convicted at all because there isn't enough evidence and no DT can do anything. You're jumping too far to conclusions way too fast with little evidence, that is BAD. | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
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SoMuchBetter
Australia10606 Posts
On March 18 2008 22:54 araav wrote: Now, what Empy did is very stupid too... He put us in a situation where we cannot let him just die. If he is a real detective, then he must be voted as a Mayor or Pardoner. He would be awesome. If he's a mafia, we just lose the role of mayor or pardoner. Now, I think while the townies outnumber the mafias by a lot, the mafia pardoner is not that dangerous for the town. He will be dangerous only when each mafia pardoning will mean very critical for the town... So I propose to make Empyrean the pardoner and never the Mayor How can you possibly conclude that we must make empy the pardoner to save him? the strategic thought processes he must have went through to decide that his ridiculous ultimatum would be a good idea are so bad that he can't possibly be of any benefit to the town whatsoever, detective or not. then you go on to say that the mafia pardoner isn't dangerous? making him immune from vigilante action is bad enough, but having the mafia as a pardoner in late game is a very bad situation to be in for the town edit: i accept that the elections are more or less random, but please don't elect the guy who cut his own brake fluids and is now speeding down the footpath yelling at everyone to jump out of his way or else | ||
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Hittegods
Stockholm4642 Posts
On March 18 2008 23:26 Ace wrote: WHOA WAIT WAIT WAIT HAS NO ONE READ MY POSTS!? If more than 4 people PM Ghar about being DT thats GREAT for the Town. Because now we'd have a suspect list and people caught false role claiming meaning we certainly have some Mafia cornered. Wouldn't that mean outing the four real DTs though? For the price of one mafia member they could possibly get a list of all DTs? Unless the mayor plans on doing all the investigation himself, which could work I guess. Also, even if Empyrean did a bad move and outed himself, wouldn't an incompetent DT be better for the town, than a dead one? | ||
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SoMuchBetter
Australia10606 Posts
On March 18 2008 23:45 Hittegods wrote: Wouldn't that mean outing the four real DTs though? For the price of one mafia member they could possibly get a list of all DTs? Unless the mayor plans on doing all the investigation himself, which could work I guess. Also, even if Empyrean did a bad move and outed himself, wouldn't an incompetent DT be better for the town, than a dead one? the idea is they don't PM him until they've checked that he is innocent first | ||
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Hittegods
Stockholm4642 Posts
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SoMuchBetter
Australia10606 Posts
On March 18 2008 23:50 Hittegods wrote: I get that part, but if let's say five people message him, after checking that he's not mafia. Obviously one of them would be mafia, or just a really dumb towny, but how would you know which one without stating to everyone which five persons that are suspects? The mayor just saying "vote for xxx" could work, provided that the townies trust the mayor enough to be telling the truth. if no detective comes out and tries to argue against the mayor then we can assume that he is innocent (or that none of the detectives are active/followed his plan). thus, there should be reason to trust the mayor. if 5 people msg him then its obvious that one of them is mafia and the mayor has a good suspect list to start with. | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On March 18 2008 23:26 Ace wrote: If more than 4 people PM Ghar about being DT thats GREAT for the Town. Because now we'd have a suspect list and people caught false role claiming meaning we certainly have some Mafia cornered. . Uhhhh no? You can't say that people who are faking the Detective spot are necessarily mafia. They can be townies as well. Don't forget it's the Mafia vs. The Townies & The Townies vs. The Townies. | ||
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Lenwe
Netherlands757 Posts
If however the mayor is a townie, the plan sounds good to me. With the detective roles I assume we will find out if the mayor is a mafia member anyway since there is bound to be at least one detective checking that. Right now it is hard to trust anyone, but near impossible to point out the mafia members (unless they do something really stupid). We, as the town, have to be careful to accuse anyone since the mafia can easily benefit from that. If we start accusing other townies and fighting amongst ourselves the mafia have nothing worry about in the beginning. Also something Bill307 said in the write-up post made a lot of sense to me. I think the only way to form true evidence-based suspicions is to require numerous clues at a minimum, since multiple red-herrings pointing to the same unfortunate Towny is much less likely than multiple intentional clues pointing to the same mafioso. While Ghar's plan indeed is good and it does give direction, it also really bad if we elect a mayor that turns out to be mafia. So, considering Randomburn put in the effort to send out pm's before the roles were handed out, there being a 20/130 chance he then got a mafia role and with the excellent voting record he had last game, I am inclined to go with him for mayor. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2008 23:45 Hittegods wrote: Wouldn't that mean outing the four real DTs though? For the price of one mafia member they could possibly get a list of all DTs? Unless the mayor plans on doing all the investigation himself, which could work I guess. Also, even if Empyrean did a bad move and outed himself, wouldn't an incompetent DT be better for the town, than a dead one? this is from a past post I made about outting the real DTs: In scenario 2, The Mayor immediately role claims for all 6. Essentially, he says 6 people reported and only 4 can be DTS, and puts ALL the names into public. Now the Town has 2 sure fire Mafia, the Medics can easily see who they should think about saving, and the Mafia is fucked because if they don't kill any of the real DTs at night they live to investigate another night. If they DO kill any of the DTs, then that just tightens the noose on the other 2 Mafia posing DTs. It's part of a role claiming strategy. Take all that info, and now add the medics. With 4 DTs or possibly more, the Town has 2 major advantages: 1.) Some people are clearly lying 2.) The medics have a list of people that need protecting There is also another part to this strategy I'm going to post soon | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On March 19 2008 00:10 Lenwe wrote: If the mayor that is elected is mafia, I think the mafia win with that plan. They get to remove the mayor and one detective from the game for the price of only one of their members. If however the mayor is a townie, the plan sounds good to me. With the detective roles I assume we will find out if the mayor is a mafia member anyway since there is bound to be at least one detective checking that. Right now it is hard to trust anyone, but near impossible to point out the mafia members (unless they do something really stupid). We, as the town, have to be careful to accuse anyone since the mafia can easily benefit from that. If we start accusing other townies and fighting amongst ourselves the mafia have nothing worry about in the beginning. Also something Bill307 said in the write-up post made a lot of sense to me. While Ghar's plan indeed is good and it does give direction, it also really bad if we elect a mayor that turns out to be mafia. So, considering Randomburn put in the effort to send out pm's before the roles were handed out, there being a 20/130 chance he then got a mafia role and with the excellent voting record he had last game, I am inclined to go with him for mayor. All that said and done, I wouldn't vote for someone who sent out PM's before the game began if he wanted to be mayor. His attitude can also change within that short period. I wouldn't vote for him because he bought interest before the game even began, so it takes away from the potential fact that he could be mafia. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 19 2008 00:09 Amber[LighT] wrote: Uhhhh no? You can't say that people who are faking the Detective spot are necessarily mafia. They can be townies as well. Don't forget it's the Mafia vs. The Townies & The Townies vs. The Townies. Why would ANY Townie that isn't a moron claim the DT role? Anyone faking DT has to be Mafia, because any Townie doing that after reading all these posts explaining the plan would realize they are hurting the Town by doing so. also, this is not in any way Townies vs Townies. At all. More so it's the uninformed majority vs the informed minority, and one of the ways to get around that trend is to share info with those that we 100% know is innocent. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
Post game start, however, we can assume that mafia will field a single, or two mayoral candidates. If the number of candidates is 6 or less, the risk of voting for a mafia candidate from the pool is 1/6, which is actually higher than 2/13. If mafia field two candidates to split votes and force multiple detectives outing themselves for single incriminations, then we'd need THIRTEEN TOTAL CANDIDATES to produce the same risk. Either way you slice it, no proof of any kind has entered the game besides some very flimsy clues, The inherant risk of voting pre-game vs. post-game candidate are negligibly identical if we use a few base assumptions, but even those aren't set in stone. Essentially the reliability of the prediction is focussed on the reliability of predicting the number of mafioso who are running for mayor, which is really anyone's game. I'd assume 1 or 2, but it could easily be 0 or 3. Anyone agree? Disagree? Why would ANY Townie that isn't a moron claim the DT role? Veteran looking to absorb hits? Jack? Etc. | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 18 2008 18:50 Ace wrote: ugh ok you people are really either acting slightly on drugs or something. HOW does Araav knowing programming languages benefit us? Seriously ask yourself that. I know C/C++, Java, and Assembly but that really won't help me find Mafia members now will it? Well, keeping track of the profiles, etc. does benefit us, but more to the point, he bothered to do it. If he was Mafia, that would be a questionable move: who knows how long it would take for us to get the information together otherwise? Therefore I think that araav's using his programming skills to help the town is an indication that he is a towny. | ||
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Ghar
Australia62 Posts
The best scenario still outweighs the worse scenario. And the worse case scenario is no worse than if you elected anyone else. I stake my innocence by that strategy if people really want to find out if their mayor is innocent. Well, keeping track of the profiles, etc. does benefit us, but more to the point, he bothered to do it. If he was Mafia, that would be a questionable move: who knows how long it would take for us to get the information together otherwise? Therefore I think that araav's using his programming skills to help the town is an indication that he is a towny. At the consequence of what? Becoming mayor. There is nothing right now that can make anyone less suspicious than another. | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On March 19 2008 00:15 Ace wrote: Why would ANY Townie that isn't a moron claim the DT role? Anyone faking DT has to be Mafia, because any Townie doing that after reading all these posts explaining the plan would realize they are hurting the Town by doing so. also, this is not in any way Townies vs Townies. At all. More so it's the uninformed majority vs the informed minority, and one of the ways to get around that trend is to share info with those that we 100% know is innocent. lol did you play last game? | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On March 19 2008 00:29 Ghar wrote: He's not guaranteed to become mayor. You're right, it doesn't prove he's a towny--we can play the double-feint game forever--but it's still something. At the end of the day, the Mafia doesn't want the list up, and if they can get away with no one posting it, they would prefer that.At the consequence of what? Becoming mayor. There is nothing right now that can make anyone less suspicious than another. | ||
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