EPTNewbie Student Mafia XXVI - Page 110
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
On June 09 2017 12:45 Tumblewood wrote: this completely misses the point of what i says. of course a fakeclaim allows me to survive D1, but what is the advantage of that if we lynch fidei D1 anyway? a fakeclaim as scum is always a ticking time bomb so we might as well give fidei a shot if that's really the case oh okay, sorry. read that incorrectly. I guess it doesn't make sense that you would bus onto Fidei so readily instead of trying to get people onto a different train, but would your vote have made a difference? assuming two mafia are on the Fidei bus vote, who could you have convinced to hammer PB instead of Fidei? Also if BH saw people getting off the Fidei train, he most likely would have put his vote back in... like he said he was an "honorary" member and his entire argument was that the Fidei vote wasn't in danger. I'd have to read his D1 filter again, but I don't think he wanted to sheep any other vote. so you survive, you ride the Fidei vote to clear your blue claim, sets you up for a solid defense later in the game. | ||
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
On June 05 2017 09:02 kitaman27 wrote: Day One Final Vote Count Fidei86 (6): Onegu, Tumblewood (2): Prison Break (2): Conversion, beentheredonethat (1): Prison Break, Vivax (1): LightningStrike (1): Blazinghand (0): Grackaroni (0): Holyflare (0): Conversion (0): Fidei86 will be lynched. So assume two people are on Fidei that are Mafia with BH voting grack b/c he's fooling around and doesn't see any other bussing happening elsewhere, while being very active during deadline. Take two people off Fidei (Let's say Grack and you for example) and you're at this: Fidei86 (4): Onegu, Put those votes on PB, you're at 4 on PB 4 on Fidei. I'm pretty sure Fidei gets lynched first in this case, so you'd have to convince someone else, but the moment BH sees this 4v4 he'll probably put his vote on Fidei making it 5:4. So you'd need to convince HF, LS, or Tubesock off a Fidei train in like 15 minutes (or however fast this train happened), or you just safely bus onto your mate and your blue claim lets you live. IDK it just seems like it'd be a long shot to try to convince someone in that small window of time. I just feel like it's safer to just bus onto your mate with the way things are happening and try to pin scum on people outside of that bus. Also without your blue claim I'm not sure if Fidei would have died anyways, but I can't speak to events that might have happened | ||
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
like what makes us scummy. you haven't been playing this game at all, you haven't died with a doc claim, and now you're stuck in a spot where we have 3 blue claims with you having the least town cred and absolutely no credibility in helping the game move in any direction | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On June 09 2017 12:55 Conversion wrote: oh okay, sorry. read that incorrectly. I guess it doesn't make sense that you would bus onto Fidei so readily instead of trying to get people onto a different train, but would your vote have made a difference? assuming two mafia are on the Fidei bus vote, who could you have convinced to hammer PB instead of Fidei? Also if BH saw people getting off the Fidei train, he most likely would have put his vote back in... like he said he was an "honorary" member and his entire argument was that the Fidei vote wasn't in danger. I'd have to read his D1 filter again, but I don't think he wanted to sheep any other vote. so you survive, you ride the Fidei vote to clear your blue claim, sets you up for a solid defense later in the game. check out the votes as they came in d1. you voted pb, and soon afterward i voted pb thinking that was the most likely shenanny. grack, apparently looking at an old version of the page, voted pb (following me) right after i switched back onto fidei. my scum partner absolutely could not be anyone but pb, ls, or ts. if it's pb this all makes sense i suppose. if it's ls or ts, they could make the vote total 3 on fidei in our favor before i switch, grack making it 4 and effectively making pb the only viable shenanny. | ||
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On June 09 2017 13:02 Conversion wrote: also can you explain why you wanted me or pb dead if you died somehow N2? like what makes us scummy. you haven't been playing this game at all, you haven't died with a doc claim, and now you're stuck in a spot where we have 3 blue claims with you having the least town cred and absolutely no credibility in helping the game move in any direction because i thought everyone else in the game was very townie and you two somewhat disappointing, like you were there but had a small thread presence. + Show Spoiler + i keep trying to reword that sentence to explain what i mean and it's very hard. i had some people i wasn't comfortable writing off just yet but who had overall looked pretty townie, and some who i had already written off, and you two. it's been a process of elimination sort of game for me. since then all of the backburner suspicions have either claimed or been green-checked by ritoky. i am 70% certain it's either hf/you or hf/pb, unless ritoky is lying. maybe ts could be scum? i think i wrote him off but then he stopped posting. | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On June 09 2017 13:06 Conversion wrote: so why wouldn't BH immediately switch his vote onto Fidei if he saw that unfolding? he might but even with only him and onegu the pb wagon would still lead. i doubt ls voted fidei out of specific conviction and instead just jumped on the biggest non-me wagon, so it still works out in that scenario | ||
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
which is absolute bollocks to me because I have no idea what you normally do as townie. for what it's worth I'm almost certain scum team is you and LS, but I'd rather have other people weigh in and read their decisions instead. If anyone wants to know my reason why I think scum team is LS and TW: Out of the 3 blues, TW is the most suspicious. This is the most active he's been because he realizes he can't just coast his doctor claim to LYLO and then win by convincing one of the townies. I actually think that Fidei might have been inactive and when the shenanny happened, LS and TW made an executive decision to bus Fidei instead of trying to swing a 6-2 (7-2 with BH if he's on Fidei) onto a townie and possibly fail. The fact that TW is completely ignoring LS town play and reading me, pb, and even tubesock before LS is suspicious to me. good night peeps I'll catch up on the thread tomorrow. | ||
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Conversion
United States3308 Posts
Here's the quote: Thanks! On June 09 2017 12:27 Conversion wrote: OK here's the way I'm seeing it: Ritoky is actually cop. Reading through his filter and his claim, the play makes sense. It backs mafia into a corner because now they have to scramble to justify their fake blue claim and try to sheep town onto the correct claim. So it's basically HF vs Ritoky. Ritoky is very much likely to die N3 I think. If I was scum, I'd want to shoot Ritoky or RB him (if there is a roleblocker) to prevent any more information getting out for D4, otherwise we can just leave the blue shit behind us and find the last mafia and have ritoky check HF or TW and town wins the game. Obviously mafia won't do that, so we should focus on this day figuring out who is scummates with HF or TW, and lynching him. I might be wrong, but I think mafia may try to tunnel all their focus on pushing the focus of D3 into who is the blue claim liar, and try to misdirect town into mislynching the correct blue claim and killing off ritoky. I think that's the best mafia player here, which is why I suggest we pressure non-blue claimed players and finding the last scummate. More likely than not whoever is mafia is going to either fight really hard to keep attention off his last scummate, or bus him and try to play out of a 50/50 lynch chance with 4 townies and 1 scum. Any thoughts? I may be missing something | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On June 09 2017 13:19 Conversion wrote: so even at this point of the game you think LS has more thread presence than me? like his last few posts were literally nothing and his excuse was "I tend to sheep more as townie" which is absolute bollocks to me because I have no idea what you normally do as townie. for what it's worth I'm almost certain scum team is you and LS, but I'd rather have other people weigh in and read their decisions instead. If anyone wants to know my reason why I think scum team is LS and TW: Out of the 3 blues, TW is the most suspicious. This is the most active he's been because he realizes he can't just coast his doctor claim to LYLO and then win by convincing one of the townies. I actually think that Fidei might have been inactive and when the shenanny happened, LS and TW made an executive decision to bus Fidei instead of trying to swing a 6-2 (7-2 with BH if he's on Fidei) onto a townie and possibly fail. The fact that TW is completely ignoring LS town play and reading me, pb, and even tubesock before LS is suspicious to me. good night peeps I'll catch up on the thread tomorrow. i don't read ls off of thread presence or any of that. at some point in the first two cycles of a town game ls makes his alignment totally obvious with a post that misses the context of something in an overtly townie way. it's hard to explain but if you'd like i can point out the post that made it obvious for me this game. | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On June 09 2017 12:27 Conversion wrote: OK here's the way I'm seeing it: Ritoky is actually cop. Reading through his filter and his claim, the play makes sense. It backs mafia into a corner because now they have to scramble to justify their fake blue claim and try to sheep town onto the correct claim. So it's basically HF vs Ritoky. Ritoky is very much likely to die N3 I think. If I was scum, I'd want to shoot Ritoky or RB him (if there is a roleblocker) to prevent any more information getting out for D4, otherwise we can just leave the blue shit behind us and find the last mafia and have ritoky check HF or TW and town wins the game. Obviously mafia won't do that, so we should focus on this day figuring out who is scummates with HF or TW, and lynching him. I might be wrong, but I think mafia may try to tunnel all their focus on pushing the focus of D3 into who is the blue claim liar, and try to misdirect town into mislynching the correct blue claim and killing off ritoky. I think that's the best mafia player here, which is why I suggest we pressure non-blue claimed players and finding the last scummate. More likely than not whoever is mafia is going to either fight really hard to keep attention off his last scummate, or bus him and try to play out of a 50/50 lynch chance with 4 townies and 1 scum. Any thoughts? I may be missing something i'm not staunchly opposed to the idea. there may be some advantage in allowing blue roles another night, because we either get a potential save, a cop check, a vig shot, or a dead (and thus confirmed) blue. if we do lynch a non-claimed blue today, i want it to be pb because i'm starting to think you're town and i just didn't pay enough attention to you. i'd give him a 60% chance of flipping scum, and then if he doesn't we try and solve the whole blue thing on d4. not a huge loss to ML today because whoever that is would probably have been MLed later in the game anyway. so yeah, that's a solid plan if everyone else isn't too busy trying to kill each other. | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
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beentheredonethat
2934 Posts
Ritoky being cop feels reasonable, HF being vig meh okay ill take it. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
The major problem I have with HF being mafia is that I am like 60% sure he has had a blue read on me for most of the game. And the fact that I was not dying or getting roleblocked after having that feeling from him makes me have severe doubts. HF, you kept saying TW could not be the doctor, which means you had a blue read on someone who was it? | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
Plus I think with me narrowing the game down so much with checks on players who were probably in mafia's "lynchable" category; I won't be allowed another check. I think ignoring the claims will just have you waking up tomorrow with me dead and an entire phase of TW vs HF. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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