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Newbie Student Mafia XXVI - Page 112

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 09 2017 12:35 GMT
#2221
There's no framer in the game.

If mafia hold their shot it frames someone.
beentheredonethat
Profile Joined May 2016
2934 Posts
June 09 2017 12:38 GMT
#2222
On June 09 2017 21:33 beentheredonethat wrote:
What if

Tumblewood saves ritoky
ritoky checks someone
HF shoots Tumblewood

Only one action can be roleblocked. We need to pray that no framer is in of course.

If Tumblewood gets roleblocked, we see what he flips AND ritoky gets another check off.
If ritoky gets roleblocked, we get a Tumblewood flip AND confirm HF
If HF gets roleblocked, we get another check for ritoky and have most likely a fakeclaim in Tumblewood

I am pretty sure I haven't thought this scenario through. But if we can somehow find out via night actions who of the three is fakeclaiming, then we can lynch outside of the claims today and do not need to gamble on a fake claim.

If we cannot find out via coordinated night actions who the fake claim is, then I'd suggest we just lynch Tumble. ritoky claim makes a lot of sense, his checks make a lot of sense. If Tumble flips doc, HF should be the lynch straight away.

If Tumble flips doc AND ritoky is roleblocked gives me headache though because then it's not sure if vig!HF or scum!HF shot Tumble.

"Micro tricks like marine splitting, blink stalker micro, and ling/baneling wars were the apex of the game’s achievements; nothing in the world takes your breath away like watching a pro player split marines like a god."
beentheredonethat
Profile Joined May 2016
2934 Posts
June 09 2017 12:38 GMT
#2223
On June 09 2017 21:35 Holyflare wrote:
There's no framer in the game.

If mafia hold their shot it frames someone.

oh right forgot about that
"Micro tricks like marine splitting, blink stalker micro, and ling/baneling wars were the apex of the game’s achievements; nothing in the world takes your breath away like watching a pro player split marines like a god."
Conversion
Profile Joined April 2010
United States3308 Posts
June 09 2017 12:39 GMT
#2224
oh good call on holding their shot. didn't even think about that
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 09 2017 12:48 GMT
#2225
And even then if tumble is the real doctor and they can't hold shot they could just stack with my shot too

I think we just go with my amazing case though

Tw thought it better to claim doc than answer the simple question of what games he read for bh to be town
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 09 2017 12:49 GMT
#2226
There's something in my mind that keeps telling me ritoky has fake claimed before though but i can't remember where and semi town read him anyway
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 09 2017 13:01 GMT
#2227
On June 09 2017 21:49 Holyflare wrote:
There's something in my mind that keeps telling me ritoky has fake claimed before though but i can't remember where and semi town read him anyway


And i mean specifically cop with checks
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 09 2017 14:00 GMT
#2228
On June 09 2017 21:11 Holyflare wrote:
And also around his claim you can 100% see I'm blue already calling him out.

this is bullshit. you don't distrust a blue claim just because you're blue, that's not how it works. you distrusting me is just setup for a later claim
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 09 2017 14:03 GMT
#2229
On June 09 2017 21:10 Conversion wrote:
I never liked TW's blue claim and I don't like his play so I'm inclined to agree with you, but idk what the other town members think since no one else is talking :p

if you scumread people because you don't like their play you will end up townreading hf 100% of the time and scumreading me 100% of the time. i get mislynched every other game because everyone hates my play so much
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 09 2017 14:10 GMT
#2230
and if you don't think i would claim to alleviate pressure and then ride the town cred for two days as blue, look at tortoise mafia where i do exactly that.
(i have my entire meta in a spreadsheet in my profile, so don't ask me to link it)
good times for all
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 09 2017 14:30 GMT
#2231
hold on one hot second actually. i know for a fact that no one but me has gotten the pm saying "you were roleblocked". so either we don't have or haven't been using our rb this whole game if i'm mafia.
good times for all
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:07 GMT
#2232
On June 09 2017 13:19 Conversion wrote:
so even at this point of the game you think LS has more thread presence than me? like his last few posts were literally nothing and his excuse was "I tend to sheep more as townie"

which is absolute bollocks to me because I have no idea what you normally do as townie.

for what it's worth I'm almost certain scum team is you and LS, but I'd rather have other people weigh in and read their decisions instead.

If anyone wants to know my reason why I think scum team is LS and TW:

Out of the 3 blues, TW is the most suspicious. This is the most active he's been because he realizes he can't just coast his doctor claim to LYLO and then win by convincing one of the townies.

I actually think that Fidei might have been inactive and when the shenanny happened, LS and TW made an executive decision to bus Fidei instead of trying to swing a 6-2 (7-2 with BH if he's on Fidei) onto a townie and possibly fail.

The fact that TW is completely ignoring LS town play and reading me, pb, and even tubesock before LS is suspicious to me.

good night peeps I'll catch up on the thread tomorrow.


This is a good post, yea I think Conversion is town now and he may be on the right track here

Now TW is just going after you/HF/me/all kinds of people or teams that don't make sense to me

Keep in mind TW didn't heal BH, he healed HF, and now says HF is scum

Currently leaning towards killing TW
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:15 GMT
#2233
On June 09 2017 18:10 ritoky wrote:
Re: ignoring the blues idea. I am not in a place where I can consider if there's any mechanical shenanigans we can do to game the system? I don't think there is a fool-proof one? From my PoV, there's no reason to lynch outside the claims. I have a 50% chance of hitting mafia today and a 100% chance of hitting mafia by tomorrow. Which guarantees us at worst a F5 with 1 mafia left; at best it's 1 mafia left and 1 blue alive tomorrow.

Plus I think with me narrowing the game down so much with checks on players who were probably in mafia's "lynchable" category; I won't be allowed another check. I think ignoring the claims will just have you waking up tomorrow with me dead and an entire phase of TW vs HF.


I mean by leaving them alive we see who gets nightkilled cause they can only rb 1 and nightkill 1. But if we're sure on TW / have no clue outside of those, there's no point.

On June 09 2017 21:34 beentheredonethat wrote:
(for the record, conversion is really up in my town list by now)
(for the record, PB kinda disappeared again, just like he did when claim discussion D2 was going on)

I'm fairly confident that TW/PB is the scum team.


Can you please not say I "disappear" everytime I'm asleep or at work? I'm here now. In before you're going to say I'm only here because you called me out.
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:34 GMT
#2234
What I'm currently thinking about is the fact that everyone claims different roles

Did TW just get lucky by claiming doc in a cop-vig set-up?

Cop is pretty believable, there is a GF, people already mentioned there can be a GF no cop, but it makes sense to have a cop.

But TW/HF know this, so they wouldn't claim cop themselves?

If it's TW, he just got "lucky" that HF is vig not doc. If it's HF then he obviously claimed a role that the other blue wouldn't be, and that TW didn't claim.

One thing that worries me is that of all people killed,

- Killing Onegu is something I see HF do: if TW is real, HF obviously set him up to be killed eventually this way, which aligns with his play, and Onegu was a medic dodge but still kind of "conf town" (he also claimed VT fwiw), and it somehow reminds me of the nightkill HF made in Generic mafia night 1. That said, Onegu "Agree with HF, would lynch Tumble." fits more with TW scum than HF scum. "Also one more quick thing. Never lynching HF. Its like he is reading my mind 3 hours before I think it.". "PB is a terrible lynch." TW is trying to get me lynched now. Really Onegu was obviously pro-HF and anti-TW, and if TW is scum he knows he's going to get CC'd tomorrow so he wants Onegu out of the way, and he won't nightkill HF in either night cause he wants to lynch him. He nightkills Onegu because the excuse is "he lead the lynch on mafia so he's neutral".

- Vivax was lynched and wanted HF dead
- Blazinghand was about to turn against HF
- HF will get alive=scummed or killed at some point anyway so I expect him to fake-claim this day for sure, yes he crumbed it, but it's not above him to plan his entire play for this fake-claim as scum

I say "lucky", because 1 v 2 is probably better for mafia than 1 v 1.

So a lot of things going through my mind with regards to this, but again the only argument for HF scum is "well he could do this as scum" because he could do anything as scum. But really TW has more scum motive here than HF. Combined with the fact TW claimed only for self preservation. And his overall play was/is weaker. HF's overall play is best / most engaged. I'd say Ritoky is in between, but based on the set-up the cop claim seems believable.

Then there is the blazinghand nightkill and I'm not entirely sure what to think of it. TW could obviously do it to have an excuse that he healed HF. But would HF actually nightkill blazinghand here? I think he could.

Tl;dr = TW scum, HF most town, but a little paranoid that vivax/blazinghand wanted HF dead
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 09 2017 15:37 GMT
#2235
Ok op says that mafia can't hold their shot. I'm more than comfortable shooting someone absolutely at random to prove myself so that we lynch between ritoky/tumble the next cycle.
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:37 GMT
#2236
voting TW
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:38 GMT
#2237
On June 10 2017 00:37 Holyflare wrote:
Ok op says that mafia can't hold their shot. I'm more than comfortable shooting someone absolutely at random to prove myself so that we lynch between ritoky/tumble the next cycle.


you'll get rb'd and the cop/doc will get nightkilled

and that still won't solve you vs the blue that survives as he'll claim to get rb'd as well
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
June 09 2017 15:39 GMT
#2238
And lol the bh about to turn on me. I was trolling him at deadline, I didn't actually scum read him.
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:42 GMT
#2239
On June 10 2017 00:39 Holyflare wrote:
And lol the bh about to turn on me. I was trolling him at deadline, I didn't actually scum read him.


But did he scumread you?
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
June 09 2017 15:43 GMT
#2240
To be honest my initial thought when BH flipped is that HF is now town, cause I was paranoid of BH+HF teaming up, but had both townread

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