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i take back ritoky being scum 90% of the time. it's hf and here's why:
- ritoky had grack as his #1 scumread two hours before deadline, and then claimed to have a green check on him later. much easier to not eliminate your top lynch candidate
- hf had some blue tells that any experienced scummer should have seen (among players still alive, that's ritoky, grack, and me on a good day), yet didn't die either night and wasn't roleblocked either
- hf didn't gain any advantage by hard claiming. he was hardly in danger of being lynched and still had his bullet. however, as scum he outs a blue and lynches potentially one or both blues
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On June 09 2017 12:13 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2017 12:06 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 12:05 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:00 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:
If you are vig shoot into me HF or BH.
If you are a cop check into me HF or BH.
That way the game is solved easier for us. Here's the actual quote if you want it Me so I wouldn't be a question mark BH so we got better info about Day 1 HF so we know if he's town or not since he plays a strong scum game. ya but let's say the cop was BTDT and he had 5 question marks. why check you over any of the other 5? He was having second thoughts on me I think? Just so he get a confirmed read right. At least I know PB was having second thoughts sort of about my alignment.
more as in "idk who's scum"
anyway I think HF looks good because when he retracted his blue claim I immediately thought he was still blue and just retracted it to dodge a nightkill
hard to believe everyone wanted TW dead and then switched to fidei lol, so I'll look into ritoky first
but we also have to look into the order in which the claims happened etc.
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On June 09 2017 12:15 Conversion wrote:really? I read through ritoky and it seems his play seems to sort of center around his checks. Show nested quote +On June 04 2017 14:33 ritoky wrote:
i think the town is something like; me, tube, vivax, hf; and tentatively conv and pb
fidei has like....almost exact opposite reads of me. dunno what to think about that.
reading LS mafia, what else is new for me.
btdt has done nothing to change my opinion, still think he is probably mafia.
tw doesn't make a whole lot of sense. defending grack for ???? defending grack from spooky ghosts pushing him???? missed joke early. says "mindmeld" then doesn't say what the mindmeld was. mafia pile.
grack made a joke while being yelled at by BH, so he gets half a town point; but otherwise he hasn't done jack esp for a 2 page filter. actually i just looked at his filter and i take his half point back cuz he doesn't really have any posts pushing the game forward.
BH has been disappointing. i expected RNG -> a play or snowball it into some reads. if that was it, he could be mafia.
onegu...flip a coin. D1 read on BTDT, claims him as scum. once he is unsure because of the emotional play, he checks BTDT, and drops the entire case on BTDT and gives small town reads on him afterwards. D2 ritoky argues with Grack, finds him suspicious, checks him. claims D3, confirmed cop. either he's mindfucking me and set this up since D1 with scum, or he's actually cop. I'm inclined to believe he's more cop than HF/TW lying about their claim. TW who did you try to save N2 and did you get RB'd?
tried to save hf and got rb'd
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Oh hey that's why he said that he only knew Vivax was never cop.
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On June 09 2017 12:19 Conversion wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2017 12:13 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:06 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 12:05 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:00 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:
If you are vig shoot into me HF or BH.
If you are a cop check into me HF or BH.
That way the game is solved easier for us. Here's the actual quote if you want it Me so I wouldn't be a question mark BH so we got better info about Day 1 HF so we know if he's town or not since he plays a strong scum game. ya but let's say the cop was BTDT and he had 5 question marks. why check you over any of the other 5? He was having second thoughts on me I think? Just so he get a confirmed read right. At least I know PB was having second thoughts sort of about my alignment. I mean on the flip side, he could be confident that you're mafia and is trying to figure out the second one, so he reads grack. grack turns out to be town, now he's sure you're teamed with mafia and possible +1. He's looking to see if there is any way his claim can make a possible scum realm within blue claims, so maybe he waits a little bit (or he's busy, seems like he's a busy person). he sees HF claims vigi, ritoky sees this and claims cop, mafia team is you-TW, checkmate mafia? that might have been his thought process when making that play. so what makes you not mafia? like no offense you have 11 pages of filter and I'm not seeing you doing anything
I did try to do stuff but then got it shut down and I more of a sheeper anyways as town. Also I do see your point he could of done that but he could of also tried to make sure his read is correct first before doing. He could of done either action.
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On June 09 2017 12:20 Prison Break wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2017 12:13 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:06 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 12:05 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:00 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:
If you are vig shoot into me HF or BH.
If you are a cop check into me HF or BH.
That way the game is solved easier for us. Here's the actual quote if you want it Me so I wouldn't be a question mark BH so we got better info about Day 1 HF so we know if he's town or not since he plays a strong scum game. ya but let's say the cop was BTDT and he had 5 question marks. why check you over any of the other 5? He was having second thoughts on me I think? Just so he get a confirmed read right. At least I know PB was having second thoughts sort of about my alignment. more as in "idk who's scum" anyway I think HF looks good because when he retracted his blue claim I immediately thought he was still blue and just retracted it to dodge a nightkill hard to believe everyone wanted TW dead and then switched to fidei lol, so I'll look into ritoky first but we also have to look into the order in which the claims happened etc.
Out of the blues that claimed TW first then HF then ritoky.
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On June 09 2017 12:19 Tumblewood wrote:
i take back ritoky being scum 90% of the time. it's hf and here's why:
- ritoky had grack as his #1 scumread two hours before deadline, and then claimed to have a green check on him later. much easier to not eliminate your top lynch candidate
- hf had some blue tells that any experienced scummer should have seen (among players still alive, that's ritoky, grack, and me on a good day), yet didn't die either night and wasn't roleblocked either
- hf didn't gain any advantage by hard claiming. he was hardly in danger of being lynched and still had his bullet. however, as scum he outs a blue and lynches potentially one or both blues
If HF was scum he thought vivax was real because the redcheck was real
If vivax was real and about to die he didn't have to counterclaim to out a blue either because TW + vivax + HF is already 3 blues
I'm not sure if the claim changed anything other than vivax rescinding immediately and HF after that as well. If HF wasn't in danger why would he fake? vivax was already "outing" the blue, idk if HF's claim changed anything there
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Tumblewood automatically starts off as the most likely liar since we're still two lynches away from LYLO and the other two claimed from positions where they weren't under too much pressure while he claimed at the end of the day as the vote leader.
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OK here's the way I'm seeing it:
Ritoky is actually cop. Reading through his filter and his claim, the play makes sense. It backs mafia into a corner because now they have to scramble to justify their fake blue claim and try to sheep town onto the correct claim.
So it's basically HF vs Ritoky. Ritoky is very much likely to die N3 I think. If I was scum, I'd want to shoot Ritoky or RB him (if there is a roleblocker) to prevent any more information getting out for D4, otherwise we can just leave the blue shit behind us and find the last mafia and have ritoky check HF or TW and town wins the game. Obviously mafia won't do that, so we should focus on this day figuring out who is scummates with HF or TW, and lynching him.
I might be wrong, but I think mafia may try to tunnel all their focus on pushing the focus of D3 into who is the blue claim liar, and try to misdirect town into mislynching the correct blue claim and killing off ritoky. I think that's the best mafia player here, which is why I suggest we pressure non-blue claimed players and finding the last scummate. More likely than not whoever is mafia is going to either fight really hard to keep attention off his last scummate, or bus him and try to play out of a 50/50 lynch chance with 4 townies and 1 scum.
Any thoughts? I may be missing something
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EBWOP: HF vs TW, not Ritoky. oops
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On June 09 2017 12:23 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2017 12:20 Prison Break wrote:On June 09 2017 12:13 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:06 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 12:05 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:00 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:
If you are vig shoot into me HF or BH.
If you are a cop check into me HF or BH.
That way the game is solved easier for us. Here's the actual quote if you want it Me so I wouldn't be a question mark BH so we got better info about Day 1 HF so we know if he's town or not since he plays a strong scum game. ya but let's say the cop was BTDT and he had 5 question marks. why check you over any of the other 5? He was having second thoughts on me I think? Just so he get a confirmed read right. At least I know PB was having second thoughts sort of about my alignment. more as in "idk who's scum" anyway I think HF looks good because when he retracted his blue claim I immediately thought he was still blue and just retracted it to dodge a nightkill hard to believe everyone wanted TW dead and then switched to fidei lol, so I'll look into ritoky first but we also have to look into the order in which the claims happened etc. Out of the blues that claimed TW first then HF then ritoky.
yes, but I mean looking at if the order gives us a better read on them. why would they do this as mafia:
TW claimed cause he was about to get lynched that day so his timing isn't giving towncreds
HF claimed for seemingly no real reason, and I keep thinking how the vivax redcheck on HF couldn't have been staged by HF so if HF is mafia it's not cause he set it up, but purely coincidence
Why does ritoky claim as mafia, did he have pressure? or does he think he can get both HF and TW killed? (not ruling that possibility out)
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On June 09 2017 12:25 Grackaroni wrote:
Tumblewood automatically starts off as the most likely liar since we're still two lynches away from LYLO and the other two claimed from positions where they weren't under too much pressure while he claimed at the end of the day as the vote leader.
This is a good argument and where I'm currently at
Unless if Ritoky thought he could get both TW and HF lynched with a good claim
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On June 09 2017 12:28 Prison Break wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2017 12:23 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:20 Prison Break wrote:On June 09 2017 12:13 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:06 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 12:05 LightningStrike wrote:On June 09 2017 12:00 Conversion wrote:On June 09 2017 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:
If you are vig shoot into me HF or BH.
If you are a cop check into me HF or BH.
That way the game is solved easier for us. Here's the actual quote if you want it Me so I wouldn't be a question mark BH so we got better info about Day 1 HF so we know if he's town or not since he plays a strong scum game. ya but let's say the cop was BTDT and he had 5 question marks. why check you over any of the other 5? He was having second thoughts on me I think? Just so he get a confirmed read right. At least I know PB was having second thoughts sort of about my alignment. more as in "idk who's scum" anyway I think HF looks good because when he retracted his blue claim I immediately thought he was still blue and just retracted it to dodge a nightkill hard to believe everyone wanted TW dead and then switched to fidei lol, so I'll look into ritoky first but we also have to look into the order in which the claims happened etc. Out of the blues that claimed TW first then HF then ritoky. yes, but I mean looking at if the order gives us a better read on them. why would they do this as mafia: TW claimed cause he was about to get lynched that day so his timing isn't giving towncreds HF claimed for seemingly no real reason, and I keep thinking how the vivax redcheck on HF couldn't have been staged by HF so if HF is mafia it's not cause he set it up, but purely coincidence Why does ritoky claim as mafia, did he have pressure? or does he think he can get both HF and TW killed? (not ruling that possibility out)
I honestly thinking TW is faked due to that plus how HF did hint about being blue with how he was kept saying that TW wasn't the doctor and shit.
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i keep trying to think of a sick play but none of them work with the roleblocker alive. looks like we'll have to settle this the good old-fashioned way.
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a question for y'all: what is the advantage of claiming to get votes off of me on D1 if we go and lynch fidei anyway? consider that with my vote, grack's vote that followed mine, whoever was already on pb, and a scummate (unless you think pb is my scummate) we could have forced the switch onto pb D1 instead of fidei in the shenanny -- it's not like anyone but onegu cared enough to be picky between shenanigans.
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because you said this
On June 05 2017 08:01 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2017 07:58 Holyflare wrote:
half of the game has gone to bed which is why your claim was pants
the only reason they even voted you is because you didn't explain the bh thing which even vivax found weird
well if half the game has gone to bed then it seems i didn't do any harm. honestly i don't trust anyone in this game to make a good decision besides vivax, grack, and bh, even if i start shitting town rainbows. just lotsa people who read people for bad reasons. with two hours i can argue myself out of a 4-3 situation but not 6-2 without a claim
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On June 09 2017 12:41 Conversion wrote:because you said this Show nested quote +On June 05 2017 08:01 Tumblewood wrote:On June 05 2017 07:58 Holyflare wrote:
half of the game has gone to bed which is why your claim was pants
the only reason they even voted you is because you didn't explain the bh thing which even vivax found weird
well if half the game has gone to bed then it seems i didn't do any harm. honestly i don't trust anyone in this game to make a good decision besides vivax, grack, and bh, even if i start shitting town rainbows. just lotsa people who read people for bad reasons. with two hours i can argue myself out of a 4-3 situation but not 6-2 without a claim
this completely misses the point of what i says. of course a fakeclaim allows me to survive D1, but what is the advantage of that if we lynch fidei D1 anyway? a fakeclaim as scum is always a ticking time bomb so we might as well give fidei a shot if that's really the case
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to my long post about mafia wanting to tunnel focus on lynching a blue: I made a mistake in the numbers. We're at 6-2 right now, if we lynch mafia we're at 5-1. At that point we can afford a mislynch, which puts town in a winning position if we dedicate to finding the last mafia before moving down the line between TW and HF.
Unless ritoky is bamboozling us in which case we lose, but if he's not dead N3 he's probably scum
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On June 09 2017 12:45 Conversion wrote:
to my long post about mafia wanting to tunnel focus on lynching a blue: I made a mistake in the numbers. We're at 6-2 right now, if we lynch mafia we're at 5-1. At that point we can afford a mislynch, which puts town in a winning position if we dedicate to finding the last mafia before moving down the line between TW and HF.
Unless ritoky is bamboozling us in which case we lose, but if he's not dead N3 he's probably scum
we're at 7-2 right now and we have two mislynches to spare. if, worst case scenario, we lynch both the blues and then the scum, it's 2v1 lylo with the last scum and probably two scrubs. if we lynch one blue we have 4v1, which is not bad but again it's probably all scrubs. if we get it right the first time we're 6-1 and we have two mislynches to spare and a blue survives the NK.
as for your second thing:
if we lynch me today and ritoky doesn't die, hf could be scum and hoping to lynch him tomorrow. really not out of the question.
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d'oh I can't count apparently lol we're at 7-2
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oh TW already made a post about it ok
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EPT
