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Using the method of play that I outlined in 465+475+481 to read TW
TW:
+ Show Spoiler +posting bad planTown explanation: trying to figure out the game. Quality of explanation: can only be taken at face value if you trust TW. plan is bad. Scum explanation 1: Trying to sell a bad plan this was my first explanation. I thought TW might be trying to trick town NU into a bad plan. + Show Spoiler [aside read] +NU also posted plans. however, I can townread him because he caught a bad part of TW's plan -- using cop to check doc -- and posted an improvement: sac doc to scum nk. I also #104 ask NU about his plans and it checks out with what I see. Therefore, unlike TW, NU is more probable to be town trying to figure out the game, because he DID improve TW's shitplan. Also, same as NU, I sensed TW trying to buddy NU but not vice versa. Quality of explanation: rather farfetched Scum explanation 2: faking activity. I didn't have this explanation initially. I got it from CR from a different conversation. + Show Spoiler [aside] +Because I only have the explanation of "selling bad plan", I ask CR about his case. I know he relies on both TW+NU scum together. I find it odd to make an association read on a scumteam for the motivation of 2 scum both loudly selling bad plan + slightly less bad plan. #148 (I also offer him alternate viewpoints for his case). CR gives me #144 the explanation of faking activity. And that explanation also works in my case! Quality of explanation: plausible blindly going from mylo to d3NU, you caught this as well. Which increased my mindmeld with you (in addition to the buddying) and gave me TR on you. Town explanation: honest mistake Quality of explanation: can only be taken at face value if you trust TW. Scum explanation: lazily faking activity, and scumslipped. Quality of explanation: subjective, but both NU and myself (if not others) found it incredibly odd for a townie to so quickly forget about mylo. my case on TW's defense against badplan read#149I call TW out for swatting at the obvious tinfoil. At this point, I have the "faking activity" explanation thanks to CR. "Mislead" isn't limited to steering town toward or away from any particular plan. "if you've been paying attention, you'll know that there is now another explanation: you're trying to mislead us into (thinking you're contributing when you're not) Your "plan" post is you starting to try to get into NU's good books, which escalates into full blown buddying. Because NU uses plan talk as activity, you do the same, and then later on continue to buddy with him on the basis that both of you are "figuring the game out" and advancing town interests by doing the same thing now we have two suspicious things that make sense when considered together. reinforce scumread.You didn't address how you suddenly go from "D1 mylo" to optimism for D3.
Townies are allowed to be wrong, I don't think but townies are allowed to be negligent.
So let's suppose your planpost was an honest mistake. When I posit that your plan relies on a weak premise, you don't even check. You snark back at me confidently with incorrect math. If TW was indeed townie trying to figure out the game, he would have checked for mistakes. He didn't. downgrade trust in TW's town explanation for badplanTW "TR's" ExO's fuck up(this is not actually an associative read) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. Seems reasonable at first glance. But something looks off to me. - he says 'hard as scum to...' and doesn't actually explicitly TR ExO. - does not hold up to scrutiny: see #205Scum explanation: Buddy defense, but scumslipped scumslip #1: avoiding TMI too hard scumslip #2: avoiding taking strong positions scumslip #3?: slightly strange reasoning due to fake TR. Quality of explanation: plausible but subjective Town explanation: It's really a TR, and maybe TW just worded it a bit off. Quality of explanation: plausible but subjective + Show Spoiler +associative scum explanation: scum selling the line that "mistakes are okay guys. I made some, he made some. we're both townies making honest mistakes." Defends against CR Defends against me Weird "TR" on ExO (null) No original scumhunting whatsoever.scum explanation: scum can't scumhunt / find it hard to fake scumhunting quality: plausible town explanation: too busy defending self quality: take him at his word for it? TW's EoD defenseNULL. both scum and town will defend themselves. There's no need to HARDTOWN for defending. (association: ExO!!!) TW's EoD TR on NUNULL at best still not scumhunting: scum. TW's N1 cases'Town' explanation: If you're thinking, "TW is posting cases and "looking at both sides of the coin" " ... no. Making case posts with pro-town pro-scum can be faked by scum. It is NULL. When I say "looking at both sides of the coin" I refer to evaluating each individual read, each small piece of evidence. Like I'm trying to demo to you right now. 'Town' explanation: "effort". Can be faked. NULL (association: ExO!!!!) Gut feel: looks weird -- overdramatic. faking something. Trying to seem like NU and I. Quality: subjective, but if NU feels the same way, then we can both self-contradiction in case against me -- both high effort town and low effort scum. I can't be both high effort and low effort at the same time.'Town' explanation: honest mistake quality: not again? this is getting old. scum explanation: tried too hard to fake case, fucked up. quality: quite likely.
I could go on, but I think that's quite enough.
There are enough circumstantial pieces to put together to make TW strongly scum. Especially parts where NU reinforces my read, and where multiple pieces of evidence fit together to form an increasingly plausible, coherent story.
As for mistakes, remember I've mentioned before: don't assume that town makes mistakes because they are carefree, and scum don't make mistakes because they are very cautious against it.
When pressed, or forced to take a position, or forced to fake something, scum will make mistakes, for all their trying. It's why the word "scumslip" exists.
SCUM by himself
SUPER DUPER SCUM when you do the same thing with ExO, find ExO scum, then associate the two together.
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Ebwop didnt finish sentence
On December 11 2016 18:00 cakepie wrote:
Gut feel: looks weird -- overdramatic. faking something. Trying to seem like NU and I.
Quality: subjective, but if NU feels the same way, then we can both upgrade the plausibility of this read
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Supplement, because this came to mind while I was writing up CR.
On December 11 2016 18:00 cakepie wrote:
TW's EoD TR on NU
NULL at best
still not scumhunting: scum.
? scum!TW is fake whiteknighting NU here ?
TW was the lynch.
Why is TW defending NU while being under threat of lynch @ w/2 votes to hammer?
TW didn't get hammered.
looking at the 4 ppl who are around (3 voters, TW) there are many possibilities for who's town/scum here but I'll let you work that out.
town explanation:
TW was attacking CR's case as a whole?
scum explanation:
If scum!TW was playing cakepie case Act 1: nolynch.
He knows he's not going to get lynched, because NU is not around.
fake whiteknighting.
I'll let you evaluate these reads quality on your own, NU.
(mainly bcuz no time to explain I want to get back to CR read draft for you)
You can evaluate (TW's NU defense while under lynch) and (TW not getting lynched) together as "linked" evidence because they're tied to the lynch.
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Sweet I can show that if EoN1 cakepie had time and was thinking straight, there are ways to read CR cop. I can assert that applying my methods, a notfrazzled cakepie could and should have been able to give CR a cop read.
Thanks NU for putting my head on straight and telling me to go back and evaluate CR.
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Using the method of play that I outlined in 465+475+481 to read CR -- part 1
CR:
+ Show Spoiler +enters D1 lynching two players for shit reasons, associating NU with TWscum explanation: this guy is just pushing preconceived, preplanned mislynches quality: actually really unlikely unless scum is shit or scum has balls of steel. attracts too much heat. pretty damn dangerous thing to do as scum because town is going to react violently to being lynched for shit reasons. (See: NU's reaction.) town explanation: he is scumhunting, using something he found odd and pushing to find out why. doing it poorly, but scumhunting nonetheless quality: plausible. + Show Spoiler +Complex eval based on CR copclaim
(this is might be difficult to follow. skip over it and come back later if you struggle here):
CR going after NU+TW is actually also possibly influenced by the fact that he was indeed real cop who checked Koshi and Koshi died.
1. He's pissed at losing the doc AND the fact that he wasted his check. This is affecting his judgement and is a contributing factor to his read being shit.
2. If you recall, part of his argument revolved around "koshi was respect killed, not bluesniped" and he's going after 2 of 3 people who "respected" Koshi on N0.
cop!CR checking Koshi might be influenced by the fact that he sees Koshi derping and (conf!pretending) not to know about how roles work in this game.
If you're scum or a blue role, you definitely fucking check the setup! So, cop!CR who was fooled by Koshi's pretend-derp also say that "scum wasn't bluesniping" -- consciously or subconsiously assuming that scum would be fooled just as he was.
Quality: This makes the towncop explanation more plausible and supports CR's copclaim.
Now suspend your gut reaction for a moment, NU.
Hear me out, and even if you don't buy my reasoning here, hang on: there are better examples later.
new concept: cop explanation:
he has a red check on TW and is associating NU to solid scum, without revealing his check yet.
NU reaction: WTF? Why would town be bluehunting! This is the second time I've caught you doing that this game! scum!scum!scum! <- don't do this. calm down.
explanation: It's not blue hunting. It's an extension of the whole town/scum motivation thing I've been doing all along. "If he's cop, does that somehow explain what's going on here?"
When you see things like that, you can flag it for yourself in your mind, and if the player claims later on, you can see if their claim and this flag support one another, and use it to evaluate their claim.
In this case, CR claims he checked Koshi N0. Oh well, the cop explanation turned out to be useless.
But, imagine a world where CR survives to D2 and claims N0 cop redcheck on TW. You'd be able to say,
1. if he's cop, that might explain what he is doing here
2. what he did here is consistent with his claimed check
I saw this at that time. This one is not "in hindsight".
player reactions to CR case: {NU, TW, ExO} absent any other info, players attacking, or targets defending against a shit read are null. + Show Spoiler [but with my game solution] +NU hits back at CR because NU is town.
(relying on scumreads) TW+ExO hit back as defense. town!Cakepie tries to help CR improve his scumhunting by pointing out flaws and suggesting other viewpoints + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote:
In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting. @NU I told you CR was scumhunting (with flaws), you asked me if that was a TL and I said yes. Do you now see why/how? Also, at that time, I didn't have super firm reads on either of you, so I let you guys fight (then I can eval those posts for reads -- but as you know I became busy with real scum cases and never quite got to it.) It was not until I came back middle of N1 that I had both of you solid town and then had to try to stop your TvT. (But did so hurriedly due to priority being on putting out scumreads and EoN) There is CR fighting ExO and TW too, but likewise as with the NU case I let the fighting go on "to obtain more information". continues pushing his "shitty" readTown explanation(s): He's trying to get reactions and evaluate them. Just like I did with TW. Maybe he's not doing it quite correctly and there are flaws with his case. But "he is scumhunting in his own way. That's a lot more than what some people have been up to." <-- remember I said this, NU? Scum explanation: really pushing mislynches hard for shitty reasons! I choose town explanation. NU chooses scum explanation, and is unable to see why CR might be doing this as town. (this reflects NUll on NU) CR is absent for long periodstown explanation: he's just away for a bit scum explanation: he faked scumhunting he made (poor) cases, and has stopped pushing them (to get reactions/discussion i.e. using town playbook). cakepie evaluation: could be either. The longer he's not here, the more it looks like scum explanation than town explanation. (This is my read evolution on CR, before he returned near EoD1, he was gradually "entering scum territory" Starts arguing with TWTown explanations: He wants to figure out why his case is being attacked He wants to push to gauge reactions to his case He is willing to extend good faith to TW and try to understand what TW is telling him.Scum explanation: Just arguing for arguing's sake. He's pushing TW mislynch. NU saw only the scum explanation. NU needs to try to see the town explanation. This is one of the important things that I wanted NU to see and TR Ray for.Votes TWTown explanation: CR towns me because I'm obvtown (by our play methods.) Both of us strongly scum TW (my case is good, his case is poor, but he also agrees with my case) You can see CR evaluation and analysis of TW's reaction vs cases where he's the target hereTherefore, we are both townies with very a solid scumread on TW. Whereas I pressure voted, CR is lynching scum. He's that confident. Scum explanation: CR and cakepie have tunneled TW all day long and are voting to lynch when the safe thing to do is to nolynch. + Show Spoiler +but nolynching for "safety" alone is an easy cop-out. Even NU implies here that he'd be willing to vote if he were confident enough on a read. Again, NU needs to see the other possibility NU case again?tl;dw: scumhunting, presenting read for reaction / discussion / refinement. Engages with ExO#252 onwardThis one is important to look at NU. He knows there's only so much he can get out of TW and you because you're his targets. But he's willing to talk to ExO as well. - He's not sure of ExO's alignment yet (at that time, my ExO case was standalone only, containing no association) - He's talking to ExO more, to apply the reaction test based on ExO's reaction to his case (as a bystander) + Show Spoiler +but ExO is defending his buddy - He's extending good faith to ExO to try to properly understand ExO's disagreement with his case - He is ready to admit that he is wrong, and concedes that "both [ExO] and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up."Town explanations: - gauging reaction to case - trying to understand what's wrong with his case so he can refine it - discussion on good faith rather than "you must be scum for disagreeing with me" - town admits they fucked up. Scum explanation: - manipulate ExO somehow? - scum got caught fucking up. This is another thing that I wanted NU to see and TR Ray for.Fucking up is NAI. It's unfair if you give TR to TW and ExO for ALL their mistakes (honest mistake! seems natural!) and yet tunnel on to the scum explanation for scum?CR fucking up. He should be allowed to fuck up as town as well. Plus all the other town explanations available here.
This is not all of it yet, but the important things for towning CR are there.
TOWN
psychological analysis reason to maybe believe CR's cop claim
On December 10 2016 06:21 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 03:31 NeverUnlucky wrote:Sorry for going MIA for 24h, I was cuahgt up in my finals yesterday. I should be much more active during the weekend  For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed: Ray TW ExO H1 cakepie No. Stop. Don't OMGUS Ray.If you've been away due to finals, I don't think you've had a chance to properly catch up since your last post here. Make sure you properly look at Ray's EoD1 and N1.
NU... here, I told you not to OMGUS Ray.
This wrongly assumed that you can play using the same town playbook that I am using.
But you weren't. Which is why you took great issue with my use of the term "OMGUS" here.
But, now that I've walked you through my playstyle and strategy -- do you see why I call it omgus? You reach for the scum explanation instinctively when CR targets you. (I don't blame you. doing so is null on you.) But NU, you need to see that there is another possibility.
Also, in this quoted post I strongly urge you to evaluate Ray on EoD1 and N1. I've highlighted the strong townreads above for you, you should have seen them.
Therefore, my read evolution on CR goes from a townlean early on (for scumhunting poorly) to scumlean (for possibly having fucked off and stopped+faked scumhunting) as D1 wore on. But over the course of EoD1 and N1, strong townreads for ExO came in, removing any doubts I had from him being away.
The case for Ray town/cop is not complete yet, but I'm putting a pause here to give NU breathing room to process and digest before moving forward.
NU, take your time to think about this carefully. TvT happens. Can you please consider CR TvT on you?
I asked CR to stop TvT you before posting TW+ExO bloated filter analysis (I admit it was very poorly done but that's what I managed at the time). Because I strongly TR him and strongly TR you (having had candid discussion (e.g. about H1) and under the impression that we were mindmelding well and using the same playbook.) And I needed him to stop his stupid tunnel on you and consider what I was about to say.
It took a while before he came back and read and respond to it.
But he understands what I'm saying about
- TW buddybuddy NU is a one way thing
- NU is actually using planning to try to figure out the game wheras TW isn't
And admits that he hadn't considered that possibility
This is a successful interaction of town helping town with reads, using the town playbook.
NU.
I have now shown by example how I'm using the town playbook.
I've tried to show you that by using the playbook, I find CR to be town Now you can go (re?)read what CR has posted recently. Like I said, I'm not the best teacher, and I've rubbed you the wrong way last night by coming across as high-and-mighty. But CR explains the whole "encyclopedia of town" and "excyclopedia of mafia" more eloquently. Give CR a fair shake.
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I've showed you that TW is using the mafia playbook.
You can go back to things I said about ExO being scum individually. You'll hopefully see that it's the mafia playbook.
And then look at TW and ExO being scum together.
Once you can accept that possibility with an open mind, start plugging in all the association read stuff. And the whole charade that they've put up, a huge plan that is tailored specifically to deceive you, NU, and drive CR and myself into a corner where they can just keep yelling at us.
This scumteam is not to be trifled with. Respect them for the effort that they've put in. I underestimated them and fucked up. But it's okay now. I have them figured out for sure now. I was right all along.
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consider the possibility that everything I'm trying to tell you is true. See how I'm putting together a reasoned argument using the strategy that I claim to be using? And that the reasoned argument shows
- TW is using the mafia playbook.
- CR is using the town playbook (poorly, and he has very willingly admitted this).
Before I posted these, the only response from the scumteam so far has been to throw smoke in your face, tempt you to take the easy way out, discredit me, etc. Which is all WIFOM. Because the other option is that I am correct.
You can see that sometimes I stop and snipe back at TW+ExO too -- showing that the other way round is also possible.
I had been playing suboptimally early in D2. But when I start posting more and more solid stuff, they throw more and more WIFOM. As I move toward posting these for you, they keep trying to sell you that I'm making a huge deception to mislead you.
You need to recognize their WIFOM for what it is.
Can you smell the increasing fear in their WIFOM?
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Now that I am putting this up. Expect scum to react. Now they finally have something concrete to attack, They are going to try to rip my posts to pieces. They will try to sell to you only the scum explanations for each of the things I did.
You need to learn by example from me. I'm not trying to be arrogant and show that I'm better than you.
I was really really shit in NSM8. But with effort, I've made tremendous improvement this game.
I see that you have the same gut sense reactions to scumslips as I do.
I believe that you can learn how to tell the scumslips from the honest mistakes.
Take my hand. We can both improve our townplay this game. I believe in you.
We're not the best. But we can be heroes together and claw this game back from the clutches of the scumteam.
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There is more stuff still not posted yet. They involve more "advanced" methods.
So this is a break point so that NU can process everything so far, before we move to harder things.
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insert scumteam yelling
- the "obvious" choice is correct: scum?CR trying to mislynch VT!NU.
- cakepie and ray orchestrated all of this to deceive and mislead NU
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On December 11 2016 05:58 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 05:52 cakepie wrote:On December 11 2016 05:47 ExO_ wrote:
CR has to be scum. otherwise scum would immediately hammer now. Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh. I think turning this into a 2v2 was a mistake. oh shit I fucked up as scum. ftfy.
ExO wanted to say this:ExO is VT.
TW is ?cop -- one scum needed to hammer orExO is VT.
TW is ?fakecop -- TW's scumbuddy needed to hammer.
He forgot:On December 11 2016 05:52 cakepie wrote:
Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh.
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Ray claims cop. <-- is cop or scum
TW claims cop. <-- is cop or scum
cakepie fakclaims cop then claims VT <-- is VT or scum
NU claims VT <-- is VT or scum
ExO claims VT <-- is VT or scum
VT claims trying hard to solve the game: cakepie, NU <-- VT
VT claims trying hard to end the game quickly: ExO <-- scum
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On December 11 2016 15:46 Tumblewood wrote:
NU actually has more experience if you count that other site.
See Ray's better explanation for my "generation gap" argument.
Other site experience counts for nothing when our problem is TL old meta and TL new meta.
I'm not "old guard" like Ray.
But I was a TL noob in those days and was trained by coaches who taught me the meta of that time.
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On December 11 2016 15:46 Tumblewood wrote:
and cakepie, please don't kill yourself caring too much about a forum game. Thanks for concern. Meds are helping. But yeah, playing this hard is bad for my physical, mental and emotional well being.
@NU ignore. Just NAI banter.
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Therefore, my read evolution on CR goes from a townlean early on (for scumhunting poorly) to scumlean (for possibly having fucked off and stopped+faked scumhunting) as D1 wore on. But over the course of EoD1 and N1, strong townreads for [s]ExO[s] CR came in, removing any doubts I had from him being away.
ebwop.
I made a mistake because in my brain was "my townread on CR comes from his interactions with TW and ExO"
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I was willing to swallow my pride and consider my scum!tw read to be wrong, and try to form TW+NU+cake town circle.
That's good faith. + Show Spoiler +Of course, that was my logical faculties no longer working correctly under fatigue. But still the point stands.
TW was "willing" to engage shittired!cakepie on N2. But quickly eliminates one option. Not really keeping an open mind.
That's not good faith.
Ray was willing to engage TW and ExO in EoD1 and N1 and admit he was wrong in some ways and try to understand things from their perspective.
That's good faith.
ExO is unwilling to accept any other explanations except the one he already decided upon.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:52 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote:On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote:
#164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now. I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure. No I think it's much more likely you are scum. I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way. On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote:
cakepie, I read over your case. There's a lot I like, and some I don't like.
...
A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads.
During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part.
...
That's not good faith.
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There are two narratives possible for what I'm doing.
town cakepie
cakepie has discovered the scumteam and their nefarious plan
scum cakepie
cakepie and CR have come up with a nefarious plan to mislead town.
This plan involves contorting the filters of two townies to make it look like they are a scumteam with a nefarious plan.
Occam's razor, yo.
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On December 12 2016 03:16 Tumblewood wrote:
AND BY THE WAY NOT CONSIDERING OTHER OPTIONS IS NIT STRICTLY SCUM.
I can agree with that! It could be scum, or a tunneled town.
On the other hand, being willing to be wrong about a previously firm position is a trait that is hard for mafia to fake. (being wishy washy doesn't count)
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On December 12 2016 03:20 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 16:58 ExO_ wrote:
But I know that you can't be scum, because if CR was actually town the game would've been over already after I voted for him. I know you have to be telling the truth because of that fact alone. But Jesus Christ dude sometimes you say things that look scummy as hell. also your "ExO is not considering other options" thing doesn't even work because if you are me or ExO you can determine that ray's partner can only be you or NU, and if you have half a brain you can determine that NU is town
your logic only works for D2 ExO with the copclaim info.
I'm referring to N1 ExO.
nice try though
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We'll return to CR part 2 later. For now,
reading between the lines.
Using town/scum/cop explanations/motivations to figure out what Hopeless1der was doing.
When this was actually happening, I only saw up to "cop" and didn't get the next level of "town pretending to be cop". But in hindsight I can find them.
On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks?
+ Show Spoiler +if cop is under threat of lynch D1 he MUST claim when
@ 3 votes if one of the voters is redchecked N0
@ 2 votes otherwise
Doc (if still alive) will protect. If counterclaims, doc's responsibility to evaluate.
Whereas other players derp around about what cop should do, H1 already has the correct answer for optimal cop play in his entrance post. Scum who are bluehunting will definitely see this.
Possible things H1 is saying/doing
scum
let me earn towncred by showing you the correct answer
town/cop/doc
"this is the correct play, you fools"
>>>>> good town pretending to be cop <<<<<
I am going to plant this bluetell for the scum team to find
On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
scum, lazy/bad town
can I sheep you?
Nope. They would sheep without asking permission. Like ExO (who couldn't explain "largely agree" satisfactorily)
good, attentive town
I townread you. Your case is good. Based on my reading of the thread, all the bases have been covered. I have nothing to add or subtract. Let me sheep you.
cop
I have a towncheck on you or I have a scumcheck on your target (TW)
good, attentive cop.
combine good, attentive town + cop
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
combine (good, attentive town) + I am pretending (cop)
On December 08 2016 03:37 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today? No.
I am able to read between the lines. Please tell me more.
An incredulous good townie who can't use town/scum motivation to read between the lines would react a lot more strongly, because they would find it very weird to be asked for permission.
On December 08 2016 03:43 Hopeless1der wrote: k well I either want to lynch TW or no-lynch today.
good, attentive town
I have no other lynch candidates.
cop
I have a towncheck on you or I have a scumcheck on your target eliminates a possibility
On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:
Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay.
I am pretending to be incredulous. If you're telling me my case is solid, I got it. Can you help me out with these?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there.
You are wrong to tunneltown ExO, you idiot. Here's why he is being anti-town. That makes him scum or bad VT. You are bad VT for not knowing the correct strategy. Don't lose us the game!
Also, see how he isn't actually responding to people that are talking to him? He's only obsessed with attacking Ray's case.
---
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.
He's town. He's scumhunting poorly and taking flak for it -- I know you know because I see you have posted concerns about it -- but I think there's some merit to what he's saying.
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
TW is scum. ExO is scum or badVT. You're bad VT. NU is scum or badVT for N0 plan stuff.
I'm VT pretending to be cop -- if you don't see this message now, you will when I flip town.
By PoE, CR is the cop. I think he is pushing his read so hard because he redchecked NU.
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I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] +On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me.
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
you are worried that CR is tarring both TW and NU with the same brush, since you mindmeld NU on TW buddying and townlean NU. But I know CR is cop. If he claims N0 redcheck on TW, you must believe him.
---
As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town.
My vote preferences are:
1-No-Lynch
2-TW
3-NU
4-ExO
5-CR
6-cake
7-me
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
look here, cakepie. if you can see this message, you will wonder why I don't townlean NU like you do. that's because I strongly believe CR N0 redchecked TW.
On December 08 2016 04:26 cakepie wrote:
You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks.
[...]
I got (some) of your secret message. Follow up questions...
On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote:
Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads.
>>>>> good, attentive town pretending to be cop <<<<<
I agree it's unlikely. but it's not impossible. Do you see that CR is trying to squeeze information out of koshi's death where no one else is doing so?
On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote:
[*]H1 thanks for our brief exchange. Please work with the others while I'm asleep.
(to be continued)
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Proof I'm not making shit up about reading H1.
NU, remember this?
On December 09 2016 03:07 cakepie wrote:
@NU re H1
The 'cute' (?) thing about H1 is that bit asking permission to sheep. When I deny permission, 124/126 pretty precisely hit upon topics I want people's opinions on, and things I might have missed. There's some level of "I agree with you on these things" coupled with "here's things you want or that might help you". That seems attentive if nothing else.
I was trying to tell you something about my interaction with H1.
On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:I think ExO is derpscum with TW. I've been suspecting it since here. Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote:- H1 thanks for our brief exchange.
- C-Ray, [...] If it's not a NU+TW scumteam, then which of the two is scum? And who of the remaining players is their scumbuddy?
- NU you already have several questions from me. Remember to filter ExO for me please.
I thank H1, this was for triggering me to look at ExO. I only had time to take a quick look at his filter before going to bed, but I saw enough to want to call others' attention to it. Reminding NU to filter ExO is a hint for the attentive -- I had not asked for it before, this is a fake reminder. I've been keeping an eye on TW+ExO interactions ever since.
There's also this.
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Let's continue to read what H1 has to say to us from the grave.
On December 09 2016 04:11 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:07 cakepie wrote:On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
All three of you are in that -null- zone. TW is *still* my priority lynch if a gun was held to my head. CR and ExO havent given much, you've given some to make me think you're not as scummy in general, especially compared to TW. Yet not enough to elevate NU above CR & Exo? stop asking me real questions..Fine my previous list was wrong. TW-ExO-CR-NU-cake-me
>>>>> town pretending to be cop <<<<<
I see that you don't understand that I'm only faking cop. Oh well.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote:
well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good. TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum". Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood. On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective Pick one and proceed. On December 09 2016 05:25 Hopeless1der wrote:
Also to spell it out for you, a read cannot be simultaneously "not an argument" and "subjective". Those are mutually exclusive traits of an argument. On December 09 2016 04:47 Hopeless1der wrote:
a little over 2 hours left today..TW if I dont get an answer in the next hour I'm voting you.
H1 is pretending to be a cop with a redcheck on TW by pushing hard for bad reasons.
Consistent with his low activity ("more guarded than VT" bluetell) and other planted coptell.
On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote:
TW was not slammed when 2 people voted him, Either one of the voters (CR and cake) were scum OR TW is scum. Technically its possible that everyone involved is wrong, but fuck that noise, I'm calling TW scum, Good fucking game.
Cop, dont claim until you absolutely have to at end of Nightphase.
If TW claims cop, lynch that piece of garbage. I will not accept him claiming cop this game.
##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood
I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today.
cop
I'm the cop. I have a redcheck on TW. If tomorrow turns out to be him cc me, I will use this as evidence/"crumb" for my N0 TW redcheck.
but he's pretending!
On December 09 2016 07:12 Hopeless1der wrote:
k so at this point i have a sharp assumption that TW is scum. Any and every question from this point forward will be colored by the assumption that TW is scum. Thank you for your cooperation.
@Cop, my preference would be that you make your claim just before the end of night phase.
Besides that, feel free to tell me why anyone is scum
cop
I am the cop. TW is scum. Thanks!
I will make my claim at EoN
if you want to suggest who to check, let me know!
but he's pretending!
On December 11 2016 16:20 Chairman Ray wrote:
cakepie you are a fucking HERO. If we end up winning this, it'll all be because of you.
Eh, give H1 some credit. H1 saved you from scum. I saved you from NU. It was a collective effort. *high5 H1*
H1 succeeded in fooling the scumteam into killing him.
SHEEP H1.
cake is town. Ray is cop. TW is scum.
Lynch TW.
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On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote:
That was a lot of stuff to read
thank you for hearing me out.
On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote:
cakepie, why are you the one who's bringing sense to Ray's cop claim and not him? I've asked him a couple o' times to explain his claim and the best answer I got was from you re: 512
Because you were tunneled against him. If you haven't untunneled him yet, there is still danger of you picking the easy scum explanation.
Needed me to help you untunnel first.
Just as I posted before EoN to helped him untunnel you so that he could consider tw+Exo
On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Also, I get your points for scum-reading TW, but you don't address why his cop claim is fake which I think is the cornerstone of today's lynch. Unlike Ray, TW has a lot of points to show for to prove that he is cop. The answers to the questions he's given me make sense.
Because TW's crumbs are faked. You guys love crumbs. You don't even evaluate that they may be faked.
I can show you how the crumbs are designed to cover different scenarios.
On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Why is it null for me to choose the scum explanation but is mafia AI for TW and ExO?
NU -> CR null NU
TW -> CR null TW
Because CR's case is almost all bad.
ExO -> cakepie mafia ExO
TW -> cakepie mafia TW
Because
- they use the explanation that I'm scum vs shitty parts of the case. (this is why I deliberately include shitty parts in my cases)
- for the good/solid parts of the case, they go "oops, my mistake!" when scumslipped. They insist they are town who honestly made a mistake. Even if it is really bloody weird for town to make the mistake. Like TW going from mylo to D3. That's why I kept trying to remind you of it. It's really implausible for town to do this.
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On December 12 2016 05:02 NeverUnlucky wrote:
And I would like to know, if you are so sure that TW is scum, why did you not vote for him?
I assume this is at me.
It is my sign that I am still here.
If I vote, then I have gone to bed and won't be able to talk to you.
now that you're here and listening.
##Vote: tumblewood
I'm still here.
Ask me anything. I will try to help you if you have trouble with anything.
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Waiting for NU to turn back to me or signal he's ready to look at fake crumbs.
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EPT
