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On October 28 2015 03:09 Xatalos wrote:Hmmm.... I guess that's a bit of a weird reaction... How sold are you on this dream team of rayn/Chromatically/ritoky?  I still kind of feel like Onegu is scum, and he seems like a safe lynch tomorrow. Then again, I guess there's always the incomprehensible possibility that he's town and just plays like this... I guess he did play a bit similarly as town in that earlier game.... And marv liked him too... >.> I really don't want to believe it though... Hopeless is pretty much a policy lynch... I guess that team wouldn't be impossible. Least confident on ritoky maybe, but rayn can very easily be scum and Chromatically could be too, considering that weird soft defense of him by rayn (which actually fits him more with his scum meta here? - picking a target and continuing to push it through eternity).. hm... In that case I'd want to lynch rayn first of all though. All of these 3 have wanted GB dead so I guess that's a point for GB?
How is this ever a point for GB? If three different players want GB dead and have posted numerous reasons for it, it's probably because we all think he's mafia and we want to kill him for it. So the conclusion you get is that he's probably town?
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Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".
That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.
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I mean... It's like in that newbie game I observed once. I forgot the names, but most players indicated their willingness to lynch a certain player. Only the confirmed townie (Innocent Child or something) and another obvtown weren't very willing to lynch him. That was a clear sign that he was town. Kind of the same thing here? With gumshoe and me being the most hesitant, and I think even Vivax not sure about the whole thing. Rest basically wanting to kill him.
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Hm... Although I don't think Onegu/Hopeless really wanted to lynch him....
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So I guess if you assume that the scumteam is something like GB/Onegu/Hopeless, then it could make sense... But even then GB preferred to lynch Onegu/Hopeless yesterday...?
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Honestly, me and ritoky should be pretty obvious town at this point in my opinion. But whatever.
I really do not understand why you and Vivax are so resistant to lynching him. Me, ritoky, and rayn have all posted very good points about why we should and it didn't even come close to happening, and it looks like it might not happen again. gumshoe attempted to "tear my case down" but his reasons didn't even address my case.
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That is the most likely team to me because PoE is pretty strong at this point (I have a very hard time seeing anyone else as mafia here) plus they're all individually very scummy. GB never actually voted either of them, and neither of them gained traction anyway so it didn't matter what he said about them.
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I thought ritoky was highly town early on... Now he's somewhat dropped off the radar and I can't even remember anything he did D2...? As for you, I agree you've posted a lot and there's a lot of decent reasoning, but if GB is town, it would mean that you've spent almost all of your effort on pushing first me (town) and then GB (town).... Which then kind of makes it sensible to see what GB is first, but can we afford it at this point? I'd really prefer lynching rayn atm. If rayn flipped scum, it would basically semi-clear GB... Well, that didn't work with yamato though
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On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".
That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.
I just said those things because I kind of feel like he could be a townie who's on the wrong track. He feels so overly paranoid that it's a bit more indicative of town than scum... Well, I guess the other explanation is that he's just scum and making impossible shit up as he goes, but wouldn't scum GB want to improve his chances of survival tomorrow, rather than ruin his chances by antagonizing the only people who consider him to be town to some extent?
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On October 28 2015 03:22 Xatalos wrote:
GB, I think gumshoe was basing a good part of his defense for you on how he scumread yamato and how his flip would clear you. Now that yamato flipped town, it makes sense for him to reconsider you, right?
No because I specifically asked this to him and he said it wouldn't change much and that he just wanted to clear me to the others.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On October 28 2015 03:35 Xatalos wrote:
So I guess if you assume that the scumteam is something like GB/Onegu/Hopeless, then it could make sense... But even then GB preferred to lynch Onegu/Hopeless yesterday...?
I could see this kind of thing as a reverse-bus, though. Let's say GB thinks he's getting lynched yesterday, and wants to set up his team to win anyways. He figures there's no way to save himself, but he can push suspicion away from his teammates by trying to push them. I don't want to speculate on associative tells between unflipped players, but I'm just saying, there's noething here that inherently makes GB/1Gu/H1 impossible, especially since:
Final Day 2 Quality Control yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, GlowingBear, Vivax, Hopeless1der, Vivax, BlazinghandGlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Vivax, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, VivaxXatalos (1): raynpelikoneet, OneguHopeless1der (1): Onegu, Onegu, BlazinghandOnegu (0): Vivax, Xatalos, BlazinghandNot Voting (1): yamato77 We have discovered yamato77 to be a chocolate saboteur!
Day 2 has ended.
Both 1Gu and H1 were in a position where their swapping could have an impact on the outcome of the lynch. 1Gu of course could even things out, but H1 in particular stayed on Yam77 even when the modkill was imminent and GB shennanies were a good choice. Not saying everyone on yam77 who didn't shennannie is scum, but we can't rule out a GB/1G/H1 scumteam based on association.
1Gu especially likely to be bad for not being on a main wagon one way or another. What's he doing voting H1?
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
I'm starting off with a VCA/Wagon analysis focused on the end of D2. I'm sure there's something there to be found; I will find it.
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Yeah I guess so.... It's just a rather... Strict set of potential scummates (Onegu+Hopeless?).
Let us know what you find :D
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BH one question: am I mafia?
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On October 28 2015 03:58 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2015 03:22 Xatalos wrote:
GB, I think gumshoe was basing a good part of his defense for you on how he scumread yamato and how his flip would clear you. Now that yamato flipped town, it makes sense for him to reconsider you, right? No because I specifically asked this to him and he said it wouldn't change much and that he just wanted to clear me to the others.
Even if that's the case, he said he'd be reluctant to lynch you, I think? But I can understand it wouldn't be easy for him to hard oppose it after the yamato wagon failed. And in any case, gumshoe has been overall the most contributive, good poster, I think....
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On October 28 2015 04:19 GlowingBear wrote:
BH one question: am I mafia?
You have a 40%+ chance of being mafia. I'd rather kill... let's say, 1Gu, than you. H1 isn't that bad of a choice either, though apparently this is his meta as town.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=117#2331 accurately sums up my thoughts on you yesterday and things haven't significantly changed with the yam flip. At the time, I thought you were scummy but also NOT the best lynch. The reason for my shennannies onto you at the end of D1 wasn't that you were scummier than Yam, but rather, Yam was dying anyways due to modkill, and nobody wanted to put a 2nd lynch on H1 or 1Gu. You were, and are, an acceptable lynch option.
If you're trying to decide whether to NK me or not based on who I'm pushing tomorrow, well, I will not be pushing you as my primary lynch target tomorrow (pending the VCA and stuff I'm doing now), but you're still a good lynch.
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That last paragraph got a good laugh out of me
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2 hours until i get shot. get me out of this shit show.
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On October 28 2015 03:01 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +Between Hopeless and Onegu, I would lynch hopeless first.
Otherwise Gb will have to go just as a matter of course / : even though I really am not that sold on him. No way you defend me like you did and say this, gumshoe. No way.
Yes way, I was wrong yesterday Gb. 100 percent wrong. My only chance to win this game is to not do that here on out. That requires read revaluations / : A large part of my town read on you was also predicated on Yam being scum, thats fallen through unfortunatly T_T which means though your not at the top of my list I do not consider you as townie as Rayn, Bh, Xat,chrom and Ritoky and would not lynch any of them before you. Which greatly limits my options / :
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On October 28 2015 03:42 Xatalos wrote:I thought ritoky was highly town early on... Now he's somewhat dropped off the radar and I can't even remember anything he did D2...? As for you, I agree you've posted a lot and there's a lot of decent reasoning, but if GB is town, it would mean that you've spent almost all of your effort on pushing first me (town) and then GB (town).... Which then kind of makes it sensible to see what GB is first, but can we afford it at this point? I'd really prefer lynching rayn atm. If rayn flipped scum, it would basically semi-clear GB... Well, that didn't work with yamato though
I think ritoky has shown well that he's legitimately trying to figure the game out, which is like the #1 town sign. The way he posts what he's thinking feels very town to me. Plus he's said the exact thing I was thinking many times. I'm pretty confidant in it.
What's your reasoning on rayn being scum now? I'm feel fairly confident that he's town now and I'd be interested to know what about him you think is scummy at this point (probably in your filter, but that's really really long).
On October 28 2015 03:46 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".
That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do. I just said those things because I kind of feel like he could be a townie who's on the wrong track. He feels so overly paranoid that it's a bit more indicative of town than scum... Well, I guess the other explanation is that he's just scum and making impossible shit up as he goes, but wouldn't scum GB want to improve his chances of survival tomorrow, rather than ruin his chances by antagonizing the only people who consider him to be town to some extent?
I don't see how that would ruin his chances of survival though. You lynch people for doing scummy things, not because they "antagonized" you or gave you a scumread.
Like, GB hasn't even been inactive this night phase. He's been around a lot, and posting. So what is he doing??
He still says we should lynch Vivax. IF he's town, he's about to get mislynched and NO ONE wants to lynch his target. But he's not posting a case, he's not trying to talk to people and convince them to lynch Vivax, he's just existing. ESPECIALLY compared to his town pushes.
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EPT
