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On March 25 2015 06:52 ritoky wrote:
i am super confused by what superbia is talking about. can someone try to make sense of this for me, or tell me if i am wrong.
he says the play he would make as mafia if 2 vigis were real and claimed, the play would be shoot 1 vigi @ night to setup the ML on the other; thus since it didn't happen that way 1 of the vigis is mafia? is that correct?
in a game with this many claims out in the open, why do you think the mafia would place vigi as such a high priority? especially when 1 has claimed to use their shot.
There were mason claims and a fake Tracker in rayn (iirc). I'm just speculating because I believe more information can be extracted from the NKs with 2 vigi claims.
Let's eliminate the world in which both vigis are real, and slam is town:
- Scum never RBs Vivax because:
- You show 4 KP in the night (withholding a possible mafia vig shot), 4 town die, town suspects vigis due to possibility of mafia vig. Mafia probably wins game.
Hence, if you believe both vigis, Slam is probably always mafia.
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Also Toad, please... hold me. I need a hug.
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On March 25 2015 06:57 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:18 Superbia wrote:
I'm not going to post for the next hour or so, making big posterino. Is this still happening?
Probably not before EoN. =/ Hopefully I'm still alive as the morning comes. :D
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On March 25 2015 06:59 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:57 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 06:18 Superbia wrote:
I'm not going to post for the next hour or so, making big posterino. Is this still happening? Probably not before EoN. =/ Hopefully I'm still alive as the morning comes. :D
Well, I don't think you're getting shot by mafia.
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On March 25 2015 07:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:59 Superbia wrote:On March 25 2015 06:57 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 06:18 Superbia wrote:
I'm not going to post for the next hour or so, making big posterino. Is this still happening? Probably not before EoN. =/ Hopefully I'm still alive as the morning comes. :D Well, I don't think you're getting shot by mafia.
I doubt this, as well. So I should be fine, hopefully. :D
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Literally you should post super...
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I am. Reactions on the slam + 2 vigis are never a world post plx.
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I wish we didn't have any blueclaims so I could get shot and laugh at Vivax from the obsqt.
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Like that logic is so solid.
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Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches.
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On March 25 2015 06:58 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:52 ritoky wrote:
i am super confused by what superbia is talking about. can someone try to make sense of this for me, or tell me if i am wrong.
he says the play he would make as mafia if 2 vigis were real and claimed, the play would be shoot 1 vigi @ night to setup the ML on the other; thus since it didn't happen that way 1 of the vigis is mafia? is that correct?
in a game with this many claims out in the open, why do you think the mafia would place vigi as such a high priority? especially when 1 has claimed to use their shot. There were mason claims and a fake Tracker in rayn (iirc). I'm just speculating because I believe more information can be extracted from the NKs with 2 vigi claims. Let's eliminate the world in which both vigis are real, and slam is town: - Scum never RBs Vivax because: - You show 4 KP in the night (withholding a possible mafia vig shot), 4 town die, town suspects vigis due to possibility of mafia vig. Mafia probably wins game. Hence, if you believe both vigis, Slam is probably always mafia.
I don't know where slam comes into all of this, that is probably a context thing....but I kinda understand now.
I just don't think you put any value in the tinfoil/wifom bomb approach that mafia could take from the same situation. Assume mafia has a RB and the RB is alive and in a position to stay alive for a while to come. The longer you leave both vigis in the game with the 1 with a shot being perpetually RB'd, the more apt town is to tinfoil/wifom bomb themselves.
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Like in Horn of Africa two townies that were both strong suspects were modkilled for posting after deadline, effectively making it a 3-town mislynch. Town ended up raping the game because all the remaining players were obvtown.
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Actually the big lost the shot when he was rb
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explain to me why 4 shown dead people makes it more likely for there to be a mafia vig...
explain to me why you consider that it the less "obvious" plan than
On March 25 2015 06:44 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:38 Superbia wrote:
Like this is all rather guessing where the mafia's wine is, but if I was mafia, and both were town, I would've probably shot Vivax after that d1, especially if you can set up the wagons well. why would you [shoot] either Vivax or me when you can get us lynched... think about it this way: Day 1: BM lynch Day 2: lynch between Vivax or Toad, let's say it's on VivaxDay 3: "Oh hey, Vivax flipped green!", lynch on Toadsounds a lot better than what you're saying
I'd count "not roleblocking Vivax when he's about to shoot town" (which is your entire point, what if slam is town) as the obvious thing to do for mafia and yet you say that is toally fine but for mafia to hope for a repeat of d1 is too obvious for them to do?
What are you even on about
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On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches.
No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3.
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On March 25 2015 07:06 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3.
1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else.
2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP
3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched.
I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this.
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On March 25 2015 07:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:06 Superbia wrote:On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3. 1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else. 2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP 3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched. I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this.
Can you tell me the other reason slam is scum?
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Like I am showing, with math, why it is the correct play for mafia to let both vigi KP go through if it's both on town. You get a possible d3 mylo with 2 huge question marks (vigis), which you will just leave alive for the rest of the game. SO EASY.
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On March 25 2015 07:08 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 07:06 Superbia wrote:On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3. 1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else. 2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP 3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched. I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this. Can you tell me the other reason slam is scum?
Super serious at the start, convincingly wanted to change his town meta, then basically stopped playing. If he truly felt strongly about it I think we would've seen more of him this game.
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On March 25 2015 07:09 Superbia wrote:
Like I am showing, with math, why it is the correct play for mafia to let both vigi KP go through if it's both on town. You get a possible d3 mylo with 2 huge question marks (vigis), which you will just leave alive for the rest of the game. SO EASY.
your entire point was that I'm mafia because mafia did not shoot into the vigs during n1...
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EPT
