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On March 25 2015 07:09 Superbia wrote:
Like I am showing, with math, why it is the correct play for mafia to let both vigi KP go through if it's both on town. You get a possible d3 mylo with 2 huge question marks (vigis), which you will just leave alive for the rest of the game. SO EASY.
Yeah but you're making a lot of assumptions. Such as vigis don't shoot into prot, JK doesn't stop a vigi shot, and vigis shoot town instead of mafia. All of those things have to break mafia's way for the mathematical scenario you brought up to occur. That's a lot of factors out of mafia's control.
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On March 25 2015 07:09 Superbia wrote:
Like I am showing, with math, why it is the correct play for mafia to let both vigi KP go through if it's both on town. You get a possible d3 mylo with 2 huge question marks (vigis), which you will just leave alive for the rest of the game. SO EASY.
No, the only thing a RB on Vivax changes is that SOMEONE that Vivax, and presumably town really suspects stays alive and gets to probably be mislynched another day. Question marks is something mafia always wants to keep in the game so they can hide more easily.
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On March 25 2015 07:11 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:09 Superbia wrote:
Like I am showing, with math, why it is the correct play for mafia to let both vigi KP go through if it's both on town. You get a possible d3 mylo with 2 huge question marks (vigis), which you will just leave alive for the rest of the game. SO EASY. Yeah but you're making a lot of assumptions. Such as vigis don't shoot into prot, JK doesn't stop a vigi shot, and vigis shoot town instead of mafia. All of those things have to break mafia's way for the mathematical scenario you brought up to occur. That's a lot of factors out of mafia's control.
Also this.
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On March 25 2015 07:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:08 ritoky wrote:On March 25 2015 07:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 07:06 Superbia wrote:On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3. 1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else. 2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP 3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched. I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this. Can you tell me the other reason slam is scum? Super serious at the start, convincingly wanted to change his town meta, then basically stopped playing. If he truly felt strongly about it I think we would've seen more of him this game.
Maybe he just realized that a cat is a cat. You can put funny hats on it or little cat boots or even a sweater, but it still remains a cat. I don't think slam is the kind of guy who can help but be himself. I didn't read the early game so I can't attest to that, but I have a pretty good read on him, and he is leaning town on his way to town for me.
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On March 25 2015 07:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:06 Superbia wrote:On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3. 1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else. 2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP 3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched. I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this.
1. Is true, but ultimately very, very risky on Vivax's part.
2. RBing Vivax ultimately loses you 1 KP on town if Vivax is a real vig (I believe so), which then doesn't allow you to secure mylo during d2 (unless you have a mafia vig, but then Slam surviving and KP being put on another target kind of puts unnecessary points in Vivax's, and maybe even slam's favor)
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KP is always nice for mafia but in the end a lynch on a townie is even better because that's effectively double the kills because you get the ML as well as a free night period (= more than just one failed vigshot) that you just got because of the ML. So keeping questionmarks alive for confusion is actually a thing, yeah
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Like this should be mafia's perspective if slam is town and both vigis are real.
Town is calling for a shot on VE and slam. Both toad and vivax seem to comply.
What does mafia have to lose by not RBing and letting both shots go through?
I've explained what mafia has to gain, possible d3 mylo and 2 big question marks for misslynches.
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On March 25 2015 07:14 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 07:08 ritoky wrote:On March 25 2015 07:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 07:06 Superbia wrote:On March 25 2015 07:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also you're forgetting that the JK probably stopped 1KP, which would've made things 3KP otherwise. A RB on a Vivax shooting Slam could easily result in a Slam mislynch. Town vigis either shoot scum or bad townies and either result can be detrimental to scum because it could eliminate mislynches. No, no. That's absolutely irrelevant. The play is to let both KP go through 100%. The misslynch on slam is absolutely irrelevant, because you go into d2 with 5 townies dead and suspicion on the Vigis. 5v10. If you secure a misslynch on that day you have mylo in d3. 1. You don't know if Vivax is shooting Slam or someone else. 2. RBing Vivax isn't between 4 or 2 KP but 4 or 3 KP 3. An alive town Slam is highly likely to get lynched. I don't find your case very convincing. I think there's a good chance Slam is scum, but not because of this. Can you tell me the other reason slam is scum? Super serious at the start, convincingly wanted to change his town meta, then basically stopped playing. If he truly felt strongly about it I think we would've seen more of him this game. Maybe he just realized that a cat is a cat. You can put funny hats on it or little cat boots or even a sweater, but it still remains a cat. I don't think slam is the kind of guy who can help but be himself. I didn't read the early game so I can't attest to that, but I have a pretty good read on him, and he is leaning town on his way to town for me.
Can you explain that read on him?
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On March 25 2015 07:16 Toadesstern wrote:
KP is always nice for mafia but in the end a lynch on a townie is even better because that's effectively double the kills because you get the ML as well as a free night period (= more than just one failed vigshot) that you just got because of the ML. So keeping questionmarks alive for confusion is actually a thing, yeah
Ultimately slam may get cop checked after a red check on d2 (very possible), and town will have effectively gained a lynch.
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relevant image:
![[image loading]](http://www.gifbin.com/bin/072009/1248951765_kitten-mittens.gif)
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On March 25 2015 07:16 Superbia wrote:
Like this should be mafia's perspective if slam is town and both vigis are real.
Town is calling for a shot on VE and slam. Both toad and vivax seem to comply.
What does mafia have to lose by not RBing and letting both shots go through?
I've explained what mafia has to gain, possible d3 mylo and 2 big question marks for misslynches.
But both Toad and Vivax looked so townie. Town was also coming around to the idea of 2 town vigis by that time regardless of the shots, so I disagree that it truly would leave 2 big question marks. Essentially all that's different with the RB is that Slam is still alive and can still get mislynched, presuming town.
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Unless slam got framed if there is a framer and he's ml.
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superbia's confidence in his setup spec despite all the logic leaps reeks of tmi to me
i'm biased tho
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On March 25 2015 07:18 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:16 Superbia wrote:
Like this should be mafia's perspective if slam is town and both vigis are real.
Town is calling for a shot on VE and slam. Both toad and vivax seem to comply.
What does mafia have to lose by not RBing and letting both shots go through?
I've explained what mafia has to gain, possible d3 mylo and 2 big question marks for misslynches. But both Toad and Vivax looked so townie. Town was also coming around to the idea of 2 town vigis by that time regardless of the shots, so I disagree that it truly would leave 2 big question marks. Essentially all that's different with the RB is that Slam is still alive and can still get mislynched, presuming town.
No way town keeps these strong townreads going into d2 with those flips dude.
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i'm also getting this weird feeling about how he hasn't been doing shit to find mafia and then he suddenly shows up with all this detailed analysis about why the mafia would have done specific X thing during the night
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On March 25 2015 07:16 Superbia wrote:
Like this should be mafia's perspective if slam is town and both vigis are real.
Town is calling for a shot on VE and slam. Both toad and vivax seem to comply.
What does mafia have to lose by not RBing and letting both shots go through?
I've explained what mafia has to gain, possible d3 mylo and 2 big question marks for misslynches.
I did not comply in the slightest wtf.
I raged pretty hard at HF because I thought the plan was retarded and didn't know who I was shooting until after it happened and I got confirmation on it... and you think mafia had an idea who I was shooting?
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On March 25 2015 07:19 Eden1892 wrote:
superbia's confidence in his setup spec despite all the logic leaps reeks of tmi to me
i'm biased tho
It's not TMI, I'm just this good. The more I post about it the more I believe in it. It's just too good of a play for mafia to pass up, with virtually no downside.
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someone else sort it out though because as already acknowledged i'm biased as hell
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On March 25 2015 07:19 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:18 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 25 2015 07:16 Superbia wrote:
Like this should be mafia's perspective if slam is town and both vigis are real.
Town is calling for a shot on VE and slam. Both toad and vivax seem to comply.
What does mafia have to lose by not RBing and letting both shots go through?
I've explained what mafia has to gain, possible d3 mylo and 2 big question marks for misslynches. But both Toad and Vivax looked so townie. Town was also coming around to the idea of 2 town vigis by that time regardless of the shots, so I disagree that it truly would leave 2 big question marks. Essentially all that's different with the RB is that Slam is still alive and can still get mislynched, presuming town. No way town keeps these strong townreads going into d2 with those flips dude.
Flips change nothing when you've collectively decided on the shots. Hell, Toad shot a townread of his in VE and he's still collectively thought of as town by those with thinking caps on.
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Honestly I don't get the point the most logical thing is oh slams Scum in this scenario not one of the big is scum?
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EPT
