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Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22398 Posts
April 06 2015 16:22 GMT
#9181
THE SICK ANALYSIS
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25560 Posts
April 06 2015 17:05 GMT
#9182
So to go over what we talked about for this setup....

+ Show Spoiler +
http://i.imgur.com/rPwNlr8.png


Seriously though, we faced 2 major challenges with this setup. first, we had 20 players, which is an awkward number of players to have-- a little too much for 4 mafia, a little too small for 5 mafia. With 4 mafia and 3 kp and delivery restrictions on kp count, and no PR problems, with all mislynches you get:

D1 16-4
D2 12-4
D3 8-4 LYLO (All lynches from here go 5-3, 3-2, 2-1 LYLO)

so you could plausibly use that setup, giving town 3 mislynches to mafia's 4 members, which is not how you want to do it. If you reduced scum's KP to like, 3-2-2-2 or "3 on day 1, 2 on the rest" or something, it would be balanceable. The downside is it becomes kinda a swingy shitfest and there's big opportunities for PRs to make big changes, since if you knock off one or two mafia early on it becomes super impossible for mafia. I think high KP, huge town, small mafia is not the way to go in terms of "fun", even if it's balanced. We could try a different KP scaling, like 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 instead of 3 - 3 - 2 - 1 and try to give mafia some tweaks to balance it but no matter what, if you don't include 3p and you have 16-4 as your setup,

So we decided to go for 15 town, 5 mafia and give mafia much fewer kp. Instead of giving mafia 3 kp or a way to keep 2 kp for a long time, we had mafia have 2 kp during N1 and N2, then 1 kp the rest of the game. N1 or N2 mafia is almost certainly gonna get at least ONE kill this way, and by the time mafia's down to 1 kp they could lean on their RB to avoid medic saves. Since mafia starts off as a big proportion of the town we're also making sure they don't get lots of kills to keep things balanced.

Assuming the town vigi misses, we get:

D1 16-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 2x town, town shoots town)
D2 12-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 2x town)
D3 9-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 1x town)
D4 7-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 1x town)
D5: 5-4 LYLO

So, there are advantages and disadvantages to this setup. First off, it gives town tons of bites at the apple, which is great. However, there aren't big rewards for town lynching scum-- scum's KP declines basically regardless. On the other hand, it's less swingy-- if town fucks up and mislynches 2 times in a row, it's still plausible town can win, scum's KP drops to 1 anyways. The game will always advance in a somewhat predictable way in this game, since KP is a function of turn rather than position

I like it because it basically requires the game be a particular length, and isn't unusually swingy or punishing.

In terms of blue roles, you'll note that town had few powerful blue roles. Town's blue setup:

Vigi (Vivax)
Jailer (Rso)
Aware Sane Cop (ExO_)
Veteran (Trfel)
The Orb

I consider 1-shot Vigi, Jailer (especially if mafia deliver KP), and Aware Sane Cop to all be premium-tier blue roles, the kind that on their own can single-handedly turn the tide of games and win for town. Veteran is a medium-tier blue role, the kind that can make a difference but relies on the individual player's ability to catch scum in-thread rather than the actual night actions to make a difference.

The Orb is basically a JOAT with a slight nerf-- it can fall into scum hands. There's a mild buff in that you can claim Orb after you've had it, whereas JOATs can't really do this without getting RBed / shot, so maybe it balances out, but I figured I'd treat the Orb basically as a JOAT, which is a premium-tier blue role when it includes a cop check or vigi shot.

So town has basically 4 premium-tier blue roles and a veteran vs 5 scum, which comes out about right.

Scum We gave a GF, a RB, and a Miller, which I think is pretty normal for a game of this size. We also gave scum a Rolecop, to give them a better chance of hunting town blue roles, since with only 1 kp they could be (and were, in fact) vulnerable to the Jailer and Veteran blocking their shots and causing deathless nights. Rolecop is a good solution because it doesn't direclty harm town, it only gives scum beter blue hunting.


Some changes I'd consider for a future 20 person game: If you have to keep the orb, that's fine, but swap out the Veteran for a 1-shot blue role like 1-shot cop, 1-shot tracker, etc. In terms of B-rank power roles, Veteran is fine, but Veteran AND Jailer seemed to be a bit too much for scum. something non-protecting might be better. Maybe split one of the premium tier roles into two smaller roles, like break the jailer into a town roleblocker and a town 1-shot doctor, or something. Either way, include more "small" roles in the OP, so that mafia has more claim options. claiming Doctor is hard, claiming 1-shot doctor is easier though, and won't disrupt people's perceptions of game balance as much.


Overall: I think this was a typical, well-balanced BH setup. some unexpected things happened, namely, scum Palmar getting shot by his teammate SL. At the start of D3 I thought town was in a really good spot, especially with rayn/ritoky as a fairly easy lynch. Toad really pulled through, though, and the sheer audacity of SL shooting Palmar kept him in the clear.

I think the Breshke and FecalFeast lynches weren't amazing, but these things happen, especially against a strong scumteam. Trfel did a good job of not getting lynched but should have tried to step into a leadership role after N4 when he took a bullet. As conftown he had a chance to make a difference.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22398 Posts
April 06 2015 17:54 GMT
#9183
On April 07 2015 02:05 Blazinghand wrote:
So to go over what we talked about for this setup....

+ Show Spoiler +
http://i.imgur.com/rPwNlr8.png


Seriously though, we faced 2 major challenges with this setup. first, we had 20 players, which is an awkward number of players to have-- a little too much for 4 mafia, a little too small for 5 mafia. With 4 mafia and 3 kp and delivery restrictions on kp count, and no PR problems, with all mislynches you get:

D1 16-4
D2 12-4
D3 8-4 LYLO (All lynches from here go 5-3, 3-2, 2-1 LYLO)

so you could plausibly use that setup, giving town 3 mislynches to mafia's 4 members, which is not how you want to do it. If you reduced scum's KP to like, 3-2-2-2 or "3 on day 1, 2 on the rest" or something, it would be balanceable. The downside is it becomes kinda a swingy shitfest and there's big opportunities for PRs to make big changes, since if you knock off one or two mafia early on it becomes super impossible for mafia. I think high KP, huge town, small mafia is not the way to go in terms of "fun", even if it's balanced. We could try a different KP scaling, like 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 instead of 3 - 3 - 2 - 1 and try to give mafia some tweaks to balance it but no matter what, if you don't include 3p and you have 16-4 as your setup,

So we decided to go for 15 town, 5 mafia and give mafia much fewer kp. Instead of giving mafia 3 kp or a way to keep 2 kp for a long time, we had mafia have 2 kp during N1 and N2, then 1 kp the rest of the game. N1 or N2 mafia is almost certainly gonna get at least ONE kill this way, and by the time mafia's down to 1 kp they could lean on their RB to avoid medic saves. Since mafia starts off as a big proportion of the town we're also making sure they don't get lots of kills to keep things balanced.

Assuming the town vigi misses, we get:

D1 16-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 2x town, town shoots town)
D2 12-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 2x town)
D3 9-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 1x town)
D4 7-4 (mislynch, scum shoots 1x town)
D5: 5-4 LYLO

So, there are advantages and disadvantages to this setup. First off, it gives town tons of bites at the apple, which is great. However, there aren't big rewards for town lynching scum-- scum's KP declines basically regardless. On the other hand, it's less swingy-- if town fucks up and mislynches 2 times in a row, it's still plausible town can win, scum's KP drops to 1 anyways. The game will always advance in a somewhat predictable way in this game, since KP is a function of turn rather than position

I like it because it basically requires the game be a particular length, and isn't unusually swingy or punishing.

In terms of blue roles, you'll note that town had few powerful blue roles. Town's blue setup:

Vigi (Vivax)
Jailer (Rso)
Aware Sane Cop (ExO_)
Veteran (Trfel)
The Orb

I consider 1-shot Vigi, Jailer (especially if mafia deliver KP), and Aware Sane Cop to all be premium-tier blue roles, the kind that on their own can single-handedly turn the tide of games and win for town. Veteran is a medium-tier blue role, the kind that can make a difference but relies on the individual player's ability to catch scum in-thread rather than the actual night actions to make a difference.

The Orb is basically a JOAT with a slight nerf-- it can fall into scum hands. There's a mild buff in that you can claim Orb after you've had it, whereas JOATs can't really do this without getting RBed / shot, so maybe it balances out, but I figured I'd treat the Orb basically as a JOAT, which is a premium-tier blue role when it includes a cop check or vigi shot.

So town has basically 4 premium-tier blue roles and a veteran vs 5 scum, which comes out about right.

Scum We gave a GF, a RB, and a Miller, which I think is pretty normal for a game of this size. We also gave scum a Rolecop, to give them a better chance of hunting town blue roles, since with only 1 kp they could be (and were, in fact) vulnerable to the Jailer and Veteran blocking their shots and causing deathless nights. Rolecop is a good solution because it doesn't direclty harm town, it only gives scum beter blue hunting.


Some changes I'd consider for a future 20 person game: If you have to keep the orb, that's fine, but swap out the Veteran for a 1-shot blue role like 1-shot cop, 1-shot tracker, etc. In terms of B-rank power roles, Veteran is fine, but Veteran AND Jailer seemed to be a bit too much for scum. something non-protecting might be better. Maybe split one of the premium tier roles into two smaller roles, like break the jailer into a town roleblocker and a town 1-shot doctor, or something. Either way, include more "small" roles in the OP, so that mafia has more claim options. claiming Doctor is hard, claiming 1-shot doctor is easier though, and won't disrupt people's perceptions of game balance as much.


Overall: I think this was a typical, well-balanced BH setup. some unexpected things happened, namely, scum Palmar getting shot by his teammate SL. At the start of D3 I thought town was in a really good spot, especially with rayn/ritoky as a fairly easy lynch. Toad really pulled through, though, and the sheer audacity of SL shooting Palmar kept him in the clear.

I think the Breshke and FecalFeast lynches weren't amazing, but these things happen, especially against a strong scumteam. Trfel did a good job of not getting lynched but should have tried to step into a leadership role after N4 when he took a bullet. As conftown he had a chance to make a difference.


tl dr

Blazinghand what do you think of empire II?
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-04-06 18:12:01
April 06 2015 18:08 GMT
#9184
oh just saw the tinfoil stuff between Vivax / Artanis and there's two sides to it:

Thing is, like Artanis said you accused a lot of people based on not a lot. It's like someone put an idea in your head and then you started to spin that idea based on "what if the idea is correct". Which is fine, but you need to come up with an explanation why that's the case at some point.

Yes you were correct on me in the end but had it been Artanis or Trfel that flipped mafia while I'm town you'd be sitting here complaining about why Artanis and I called tinfoil on THOSE theories instead. You never made a compelling argument why what could have happened (and did happen) was more likely than what town believed to be the case (poe) or more likely than your other theories you had earlier. You just mentioned them as possible scenarios and went on "if that's the case here's how it went down"

To me it sounded like what was the most plausible scenario for you was based on a whim that might just change in 24 hours based on very little so it's hard to take it seriously if you know/think that in 24 hours there's just going to be another explanation from you that tosses everything from the previous day out of the window.

On the other hand I obviously tried to discredit you, not just when you were talking about me but also when you were talking about Artanis and the other guys because you're so volatile. I mentioned that Eden / Trfel / Artanis are easy to manipulate in the scum-QT multiple times and that we can keep them around as long as they're playing towards our wincon by defending us so I didn't have to do that with them. I was scared that you might just randomly pick up on something and while I didn't think you have it in you to lead town like Eden would I was scared that that might start a bushfire so I obviously discredited you on purpose just in case.
Artanis had a mighty townread on me so he was fine with calling it tinfoil because I was doing it a lot as well. Probably moreso than how much he would have done had I not done it myself I assume.

So tl;dr: Don't focus on what could have happened or what's possible so much. Ask yourself what's the most likely scenario and explain why you think what you're presenting is the most likely scenario rather than explaining why what you're thinking of is totally possible in some weird scenario. If you can't do that there's no point in presenting the idea because it might have as well been your Artanis, Trfel or someone-else theory that's correct and you're just cherrypicking post-game.
It would have been easy to explain the "missing" KP had anyone just mentioned the chance of me being mafia who isn't Vig. Also the lynch was between Vivax LS, Palmar and Rayn had I not claimed. 3 of those alignments people were aware for the most time, later on all 4.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
April 06 2015 20:04 GMT
#9185
lol yeah honestly...if i hadn't claimed

toad would have been under a lot more heat. 2 kp, 1 vig ostensibly RBd, everyone would be looking at the vig claims and with LS confirmed mafia, vivax is practically confirmed himself

me claiming was a terrible move in that it removed 2 blues from the game and gave everyone an alternative theory that let toad coast. i did mention in my "legacy" post at the very bottom that toad's being scum perfectly explained the missing kp, but i was still townreading you at the time, toad...and ppl don't pay much attention to my reads/comments anyway because of my track record
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
April 06 2015 20:06 GMT
#9186
but really the scum motivation for the vig cc knowing that ls and rayn were both scum is kind of blindingly obvious :/ i even mentioned it multiple times night 1 and day 2 because i always thought rayn was scum
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
April 06 2015 20:07 GMT
#9187
once those alignments were confirmed...-shrugs-

don't take it as criticism though like i said my claim probably was the single most game-throwing move in this game, so i'm not blaming anyone!
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
April 06 2015 20:09 GMT
#9188
If only i was saved
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
April 06 2015 20:12 GMT
#9189
lol >>

shush you
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
April 06 2015 21:49 GMT
#9190
On April 07 2015 05:04 rsoultin wrote:
lol yeah honestly...if i hadn't claimed

toad would have been under a lot more heat. 2 kp, 1 vig ostensibly RBd, everyone would be looking at the vig claims and with LS confirmed mafia, vivax is practically confirmed himself

me claiming was a terrible move in that it removed 2 blues from the game and gave everyone an alternative theory that let toad coast. i did mention in my "legacy" post at the very bottom that toad's being scum perfectly explained the missing kp, but i was still townreading you at the time, toad...and ppl don't pay much attention to my reads/comments anyway because of my track record


Live and learn. I said my piece in the obs qt on playing jailer, better luck next go.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
April 06 2015 21:51 GMT
#9191
On April 06 2015 10:59 Trfel wrote:
Just wondering, why does no game ever include masons? I want to be a mason...


As far as this game was concerned, Blazinghand had taught me how to weigh masons (they count as 1.5x PR) against other roles, and honestly for a large normal, I felt I needed upwards of 30 people for that to work, at least a fourth scum PR. We wanted the orb in there which is a JOAT and we weighted it at 1.5x and wanting for 3 blues, masons wasn't going to work.

Masons were used in Void against a rolecop and two goons.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
rsoultin
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
Netherlands15308 Posts
April 06 2015 22:32 GMT
#9192
On April 07 2015 06:49 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 07 2015 05:04 rsoultin wrote:
lol yeah honestly...if i hadn't claimed

toad would have been under a lot more heat. 2 kp, 1 vig ostensibly RBd, everyone would be looking at the vig claims and with LS confirmed mafia, vivax is practically confirmed himself

me claiming was a terrible move in that it removed 2 blues from the game and gave everyone an alternative theory that let toad coast. i did mention in my "legacy" post at the very bottom that toad's being scum perfectly explained the missing kp, but i was still townreading you at the time, toad...and ppl don't pay much attention to my reads/comments anyway because of my track record


Live and learn. I said my piece in the obs qt on playing jailer, better luck next go.


xP the claim was the biggest problem

not that the other advice wasn't appreciated, too, but it didn't hurt the game for my saves to be strange
"rsoultin: Mafia Suicide Inducer...you have unlimited shots because you are so god-damn relentless." - marvellosity (2015)
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22398 Posts
September 02 2016 19:33 GMT
#9193
Found it, it was Carol, his follow up there:

On March 19 2015 08:03 Trfel wrote:
Trfel is Mafia!
Soundtrack for this post

[image loading]

There are people in this town who seek to destroy your hopes and dreams. By day, they manipulate and coerce you into doing their bidding. By night, they silently approach your homes and then kill you without mercy. Only a cruel, stone-cold, heartless person could live in this manner.

We are the mafia. You cannot win. If you have a power role, please state it here, and you might be killed less painfully.


On March 19 2015 08:04 Trfel wrote:
Wow, you guys are fast.....

I never miss the first post when I actually try for it. I guess I've got to step up my game.


On March 19 2015 08:14 Trfel wrote:
Palmar, I was at band practice for three hours before the start of the game. I had five minutes to type that up. Give me a break.


On March 19 2015 08:51 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin is probably town.


On March 19 2015 08:58 Trfel wrote:
Well, I already claimed mafia, so I'm probably going to lurk for a while. I'll come back when you guys get on the right track to make sure I can get townies lynched.

Have fun.


Compared to the followup here:

On August 29 2016 05:59 Trfel wrote:
Beentheredonethat is the worst cohost on TL.

I didn't think he would be cruel enough to make me mafia two games in a row


On August 29 2016 06:08 Trfel wrote:
Disformation, I find it very odd that you felt the need to justify your earlier post after Vivax made an obviously joking statement. Please explain?


Reads entirely different!

In Carol he kept the trolling up, here he jumped immediately into a bit of an awkward reading questioning of disfo after I voted him for the mafia claim.

Opinions? Might be indicative of something but it's entirely meta based so I don't feel like making a call right now.
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