EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LXI
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ElyAs
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ElyAs
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On February 15 2015 10:24 Trfel wrote: Remember last game where I opened confidently? I do. It was the game where I was mafia. I really don't like Trfel's post, it is WIFOM as hell. I guess it doesn't mean a lot this early into the game, but why would you post that? Hier, I don't like your plan, but I agree that all participants should post as soon as possible If everybody was willing to follow the plan, it could work, but I can't see either mafia or townies with strong reads willing to break the circle. Plus pressure vote is a good tool in my opinion and your plan forces you to cast a vote on a strong read, it's harder to pressure with only 1 switch. Still, I'd like for more people to comment on your plan. | ||
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Although I don't like Trfel's opening, he is clearly trying to start discussions so I can't scumread him for that. I'm just gonna keep this in mind for later, but not gonna vote for him day 1. Shining posted a bit and disappeared, his last post was hinting towards "I'm gonna post more later", I expect you to do it. Until then nullread Rsoultin discussed with Trfel, then with jarjar, she is asking questions, which what I'd expect from town. jarjarbinks is sharing his insight on rsoultin's demand, but apart from that, not a lot of content. What do you think of Hier's plan ? Hier only posted his plan, and I've given my thoughts on that. | ||
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If everybody was willing to follow the plan, it could work, but I can see either mafia or townies with strong reads willing to break the circle. | ||
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zlefin, can you explain your reads on Trfel and jarjar ? | ||
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I first thought you posted that to induce discussion with ambiguous content. But actually that info was easily checked on your game history. So my current opinion is : you spoke the truth because hiding it would be suspicious. So, as I said, I didn't like the post, but I still like the overall picture of your posting and I'd color that post more null than ambiguous now. | ||
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On February 16 2015 07:22 The Shining wrote: [...] Ely, what in my last post before yours made you think I was hinting at posting more? This post for clarification: Obviously I did plan on posting more but this post was explaining expected INactivity, not activity. I like that you have given at least basic explanations for your early reads but I'd like to see more of you. What do you think of RSo's Hier push? You're right, I was overly interpreting your post. I red "When posts pick up I'll be there" for no reason... I liked the push as a pressure tool, and it made Hier react, so it had its effect. Still don't know how to interpret his counter vote, if it's OMGUS or something else. Gonna analyze and share my thoughts. | ||
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First impression is that Hier is a misguided town, but i'm not convinced on that read, because he has mainly done two things : 1)Defend his Bridges plan. 2)Attack rsoultin. Hier, can you really not share your reads, even if they are not complete ? Any insight can be useful at this point in the game. | ||
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I've read the thread again, filter dived a bit and my first conclusions are : I'm not lynching Trfel and The Shining today. They are contributing and I like their thought process. Most likely town Next post is gonna be long, so bear with me. | ||
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On February 16 2015 21:07 zlefin wrote: I would like it if you did that, I find this post of yours feels scummy to me. It feels like a lot of blather, and needlessly fanc y words (admittedly something I tend to do myself), that say very little and amount to a post that doesn't really add anything. I kinda agree with you on that post zlefin, and it's not the only post where I feel Hier is almost trying to confuse us. Hier, I think this is inconsistent with the fact that you proposed a plan based on "eliminating chaos". I understand that you're saying "I don't want to create unnecessary discussion", and that is consistent with your thought process, but I still have trouble following you on some posts. (post for reference) On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote: jarjarbinks, Trfel: Purely numerically completely off the wall random lynches win out over the Bridges method by a little over 2 percentage points at the second lynch; it is negligible. In both cases mafia’s odds of escaping 2 lynches in a row are a little better than a coin flip. Better blind mathematical odds are not, however, what I’m advocating. I am selling a platform, a canvas, through which reads can be made. You say people will be content with the predetermined 2nd lynch and activity will drop – I say you’re wrong. As long as there are 2 sides that want to win arguments will always arise, except in this case they will be of a different nature: justification of substitution, rather than a timed mandatory witch hunt. Bandwagons will certainly not be eliminated, but through this method they will demand sturdier foundations, which eliminates chaos. [...] Plus as other players said, you were only talking about your plan and your scumread on rsoultin, half justified by "She is next on my list" and "She has null reads". Later, you said "Null reads are bad and counter productive". I disagree on that, because it promotes more effort from the person that is painted as null. If I don't have clear scumreads, I'm gonna analyze my null reads first. I do agree that saying "I've got a nullread on an inactive" is not constructive, but on active players, It is. (post for reference) On February 16 2015 04:23 Hier wrote: I was excited seeing so many new posts, turns out it was for naught. A lot of people are requesting that I provide further reads. I am going to point out that as off right now ElyAs, zlefin, jarjarbinks, and Trfel have not a single scum read with justification between them. Instead what we have from them is a mass of neutral to townish reads that they aren’t willing to commit to, opting to wait for more posts from other people by asking for their reads. I have provided my prime scum read with justification. Of course rsoultin may just not be very good at the game, which is fine, but I’ll stand by my claim. The Shining’s scum read on zlefin isn’t without rationale, but I suspect the second mafia player to be one of the two inactive players. I do not have a solid town read, in fact it doesn’t make sense to, and stating you are neutral about that guy and that guy isn’t productive. Now, you said you were going to focus on somebody else, I look forward to this. But until then, ##vote Hier | ||
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Plus, I didn't see anybody actively defending Hier, this is generally a sign of a mislynch if I'm not mistaken Trfel, saw your post as I was writing mine, I'm not satisfied with this lynch to be honest. I hope you're still around, do you want to ask me something ? | ||
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He waited till now to vote Hier, and is actually pushing Hier by giving some food for thought. I actually used that post in my case against Hier, but the content itself feels coherent with Hier's thought process. (post for reference) On February 16 2015 21:07 zlefin wrote: I would like it if you did that, I find this post of yours feels scummy to me. It feels like a lot of blather, and needlessly fanc y words (admittedly something I tend to do myself), that say very little and amount to a post that doesn't really add anything. Something tickles me about this post : On February 17 2015 06:19 zlefin wrote: disappear? I was shoveling! There's snow out there ya know, in some places. Lunch is more important than mafia, so go and eat and enjoy! While true, It is actually the last chance we have at a counterwagon, so it would be the time to review our options. I dislike last minutes shenanigans, so it's now or never. Admittedly it's scarce, I'm going to filter dive further to see if I get something interesting. You'd rather me continuing on that train of thought or analyzing the larger picture and exchanges between all the players ? | ||
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He attacks Tere more than rsoultin right now, even though there was no wagon on Tere. He is clearly not trying to save himself, he sounds resigned, but he is trying to follow-up and get town information for after his flip. Is a Tere case really far-fetched ? I'm gonna try to look into that. | ||
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Just saw The Shining's post. Guess we are lynching Hier. | ||
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Reacting to the current train of thought, rsoultin, do you think jjb has started changing his playstyle to include more traditional reads and playstyle analysis ? Or is he really playing differently and more carefully than normal ? I intend to share my gameplan, I'm reading some filters right now. | ||
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Tere's case on Hier is also mostly stuff we have said about Hier, be it rsoultin's case or the OMGUSy vote. I'm not sold on this, but I'm adding Tere on my lynch pool. I think rsoultin's case on Hier was good and Hier's vote for rsoultin was misguided. I think you're town, rsoultin, and I really hope it's the case, because if you're scum you're gonna be hard to catch :p | ||
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I get that you didn't have a lot of time before EOD to share your reads, but I'd really like to read them. Also you started the zlefin wagon and unvoted before EOD, were you looking for someone in particular outside of zlefin / Hier ? | ||
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On February 18 2015 02:53 Tere wrote: Hi ElyAs! If you had two bullets for scum now, who would you use them on and why? I would use them on my top two scumreads : you and zlefin. Those are weak reads tho, for you it would be voting timing and seemingly sheeping the strongest wagon. zlefin would be because he pushed Hier in a strange way, as I explained in the first part of this post : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=25#495 | ||
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On February 18 2015 03:31 Trfel wrote: I'll be out for a while. Happy scumhunting! ElyAs, I noticed that your activity died off a bit after the End of Day. Is it possible to get more recent thoughts, specifically with regards to zlefin and Silverarte? For zlefin, I'm trying to see if I see more of what I see as underhanded pushing in his posts. Silverarte... I don't have a lot on her. She talks a lot about her work schedule and inactivity, some posts have little content, but her long posts show willingness to play the town game. | ||
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On February 18 2015 03:42 Tere wrote: ElyAs, you realise your argument about sheeping the strongest wagon applies equally to you, right, given we were writing our lynch vote rationale at the exact same time?  That is correct. Which is why I said these are weak reads, this timing is shared by me, you and Trfel in a certain way. | ||
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On February 18 2015 14:50 Trfel wrote: Though this is definitely something to ask about. A few questions for ElyAs What do you mean by your lynch pool? Is that the people you would be willing to lynch right now, or the pool of potential lynch candidates, or what? Any comments on jarjarbinks' observation that this case seems to have taken less effort than your other cases? Thanks! My lynch pool is people I'm watching closely, and I'd be willing to lynch for day 2. I agree that my case on Tere took less effort than my other cases because I found few inconsistencies while skimming her filter, and was pressed by time due to RL issues (had a guest, so I only posted short posts afterwards.) I do believe, however, that rsoultin's death holds a meaning, more on this on my next post. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote: Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment. Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. This post got me thinking. We are in a newbie game so I'll take this in the level zero of mindgames, which means no mindgames, this lynch has a purpose which is not to deceive us. Silverarte and jarjarbinks know rsoultin well. They know that town rsoultin is a strong player and she knows their playstyle. It's not enough to scream scum imo, but I'm willing to check their filter once again for inconsistencies in their train of thought. In short, this is not a case yet, these are just my thoughts. As Trfel noted, I'm a mafia rookie and I lack the confidence to be pushing a case off just this detail. But if I find something good, I'll build a case. | ||
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When I red your posts and Trfel's snap vote, I skipped a beat because I was starting to townread you and saw one of my townreads vote for you. I'm kinda relieved by Trfel's follow-up. I know I'm not in the best of lights right now, and I'm gonna try to step up my game to find a good case, I owe it to jarjar and Trfel because their posts gave me a little bit of confidence. I got an hour to allocate to this game right now and I'll try to use it well. (It is really a time consuming game !) | ||
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I'm actually uneasy with Silverarte's posts, they contain a lot of fluff and questions. Gonna try to follow her train of thought. Started questioning Hier on the usefulness of his attachement to the Bridges. Is nullreading zlefin. Thereafter, a lot of fluff and questions. Silverarte's tone is generally playful, but this post seems off: On February 16 2015 22:39 Silverarte wrote: @hier I appreciate frustration here, but it still seems like pulling teeth to get reads and the why from you. As nothing has been put up to change my mind and it's still a fight with getting your reads and such? Nothing personal but my vote is on you. ##Vote: Hier The tone changed. Granted it's a post to justify a vote, and I see 2 other posts with that tone, the first one where she starts questioning Hier and puts a nullread onto zlefin. I'm linking the other one : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=33#649 Comes back after EOD, then later to catch up on thread. Next post is relevant, she voices doubts on Tere, but not convinced she is a good lynch. She did the same thing with zlefin day 1 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=31#611 Next, suspicion on The Shining, but not willing to push. Wants more from ElyAs, that is understandable. Gonna ignore the delay on her "more to come" Something that looks like a mild townread on JJB Her two shots : zlefin and Tere, expresses suspicion on Tere for her take on the Hier case. Expresses doubt on the point system, more precisely on the lack of detail and reasoning. Asks for clarification on an earlier post. Later, wants to know Tere's last will and asks more precisions on zlefin. On February 18 2015 04:02 Silverarte wrote: Woo! Back! How's it going so far? Also, so far, what is everyone's top? Rather than two bullets, how about one? I don't understand why she would dodge that question... She already responded to it once and nothing in her filter makes me think she changed her mind about zlefin. Right after that, no more posts, even to comment on the NK. For now I see her filter is about suspicion on zlefin and Tere, and generally trying to be amiable to Trfel and rsoultin. It could be mildly pushing easy lynch targets while being careful of townleaders. | ||
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I want to share my conclusions once I am finished with this exercise. | ||
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I want to react to this post : On February 19 2015 06:47 Tere wrote: Point 1)Dude, as of start of day I was the sole common denominator on everyone's scum lists. That's like the definition of lynchable right there. Point 2)Right now I think scum are not posting, and are trying to work out what to do now their easy lynches of zlef and myself aren't looking so lynchable. That's why I want to pull back. I love giving people rope to hang themselves 1) Yup, I was trying Tere's case from Silverarte's PoV. At that point, Tere was far from universally townread and I should check if at the time of Silver's post, Tere had a long filter already. 2) I wanted to say that ! I think they wanted us to destroy ourselves and were sitting back. If that's the case, now that their plan has backfired it could be very interesting. Now I'm gonna follow up with the same exercise I did on Silverarte with The Shining. | ||
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Right now you're just promoting chaos and I don't like that. | ||
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zlefin asked for a list of reads, here it is : Townish : Trfel, Tere, ElyAs Null : JJB (need to filter dive), zlefin (want to filter dive too, my earlier scumread on you feels misguided to me.) Slight scumread : The Shining Scummy : Silverarte. I really want to finish filter diving before casting my vote, but if I don't find a better lynch I'm okay with lynching Silver. It's getting late, I'll have more tomorrow. | ||
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On February 19 2015 17:05 Tere wrote: Morning. I drank too much last night, have an unhappy stomach and am fuzzy headed, but right now I kinda think I wanna do something which will probably bug the crap out of everybody. I kinda think I wanna ##vote Trfel. It's like this. There's a post in my filter where I respond to him and say he's like this weirdly negging boyfriend that's not giving me a lady boner. I just can't shake it, I really can't. It's really bothering me. I need everyone else to go look at Trfel's filter and see what they think. I might just be falling down the rabbit hole, but if so I need to step away from the edge. I need to take the car in for servicing and will be at least 8 or 9 hours. I won't be able to post but I will try and grab a coffee and do a full read and reset. Wow, that's what I call a scud. I think something's starting to make sense. I'm changing my way of reading this game. Something felt off but I can narrow it down to 3 people as possible lynch for tonight imo. | ||
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On February 19 2015 11:46 The Shining wrote: Yeah, that post. To be clear when you're catching up, Ely, I'd like to know how being unable to decide between alignments for me becomes an automatic scum instead of null? Please explain my scumread. Something other than "you're scumming my top townread so you're scum" would help. This is the same player who has also felt almost forgettable, and personally, although he did rescind afterward, he misrepresented one of my posts to make it seem like I hinted at contributing more, then AFKing thread. It was a red flag that I let go because he quickly backed off but I'll be giving a concrete on him once he returns with the results of his JJB and Zlefin filterdives. Gonna answer this in my next post, along with the way I've been reading Tere. | ||
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There are 3 distinct scenarii that could be happening right now. 1) This is a game with scum being godfather / goon. Trfel is the godfather and is playing like town, but with ambiguous behaviour, as noted by The Shining in the beginning of the game. This is to draw a possible cop to check him and return with a green check. Also, he was quite ready to jump the gun on Tere even tho she has been breadcrumbing all this time (more on this in the third scenario). He was on the same timing as Tere/me on Hier's lynch. Day 2 he has been discussing with us, but something feels... off ? He is distancing himself from some easy lynches, maybe he didn't want to start an obvious wagon as scum. At the time he said he didn't want to lynch me, I was still very much a target. 2) Same case, godfather / goon. This time godfather is The Shining, who started to set up Trfel and paint him as godfather. His outburst could be a last ditch effort to appear as frustrated town. This scenario is possible but I'm not sold on it. I thought of this possibility yesterday, which is why I did put him as slight scum. (My first intention was actually to create a "Confusing" category just for you.) 3) Scum setup is roleblocker / goon. Tere is scum and breadcrumbing to confuse us because there is a 25% chance for a particular role to - not be present - be compatible with another role. Which would then be opened for a scumclaim. I dunno if Tere is willing to take this 25% chance as scum, but for the sake of discussion, let's say yes. There is also the probability that that particular blue role is not willing to claim. (unlikely) If that's the case, I was sold on that breadcrumbing and this explains my strong read on Tere. I'm not talking about any scumpartners right now because I believe scum between those 3 is gonna be the most dangerous of scums. Right now, I'm thinking scenario 1 is the most probable. | ||
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The breadcrumb was too obvious for that imo. | ||
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Not saying anything on Silverarte yet, this lynch can wait imo. | ||
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I'm Wendy Testaburger, town Doctor ! Which is why I can say with such confidence that the role distribution is either : 1 Godfather, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 1 Vigilante, 5 Vanilla Town or 1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 6 Vanilla Town My point is, Tere has been breadcrumbing blue, but most importantly, she has been breadcrumbing Vigi adding to my strong townread. Proof : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=44#874 "The two people I would shoot right now are The Shining and Silverarte." Why is she saying this while nobody has asked her who'd she shoot ? If this is true and Tere is Vigi, then we have a godfather that played like there could be cops around, while there are none. If this is false... GG Tere, I got fooled and luck was on your side. | ||
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Tere, sorry but you claimed VT and not Vig ? Abort mission, lynch Silver. | ||
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Might be another thing altogether. | ||
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Right now, it's 1AM here and I've got work tomorrow, but I'll be there. | ||
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On February 20 2015 09:13 The Shining wrote: Scum slip? Only scum knows set up. Yes, you could argue the RB flip confirms it but Ely is still not confirmed Doc. He might as well be but he isn't. I'm not really sure why you posted this, since its a point we could have all made on our own. Only 2 total setups with both a role blocker and Doctor. No Vigi claim and no N1 shot. Nope, sorry but you're wrong. It is the only possible setup from my PoV. | ||
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Gonna post my thoughts on the flow of the game before EoN. | ||
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I think it's possible that you are both town and convinced that the other is scum. If that's the case, who do you think is the more likely to be scum ? | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=42#830 I wrote that as kind of a "Hey, I believe you when you say you're vig / vet, let's rock this game." and I think she got the message. Dunno how relevant it is, because townreading me for this could be done as scum or town I guess. Something feels off, I can't explain what. I guess that's mafia for you. | ||
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So you killed rsoultin so she could not read you and silver after D1 ? Was I right on this point ? :p | ||
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