EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LXI
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
On February 15 2015 10:24 Trfel wrote: Remember last game where I opened confidently? I do. It was the game where I was mafia. I really don't like Trfel's post, it is WIFOM as hell. I guess it doesn't mean a lot this early into the game, but why would you post that? Hier, I don't like your plan, but I agree that all participants should post as soon as possible If everybody was willing to follow the plan, it could work, but I can't see either mafia or townies with strong reads willing to break the circle. Plus pressure vote is a good tool in my opinion and your plan forces you to cast a vote on a strong read, it's harder to pressure with only 1 switch. Still, I'd like for more people to comment on your plan. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
Although I don't like Trfel's opening, he is clearly trying to start discussions so I can't scumread him for that. I'm just gonna keep this in mind for later, but not gonna vote for him day 1. Shining posted a bit and disappeared, his last post was hinting towards "I'm gonna post more later", I expect you to do it. Until then nullread Rsoultin discussed with Trfel, then with jarjar, she is asking questions, which what I'd expect from town. jarjarbinks is sharing his insight on rsoultin's demand, but apart from that, not a lot of content. What do you think of Hier's plan ? Hier only posted his plan, and I've given my thoughts on that. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
If everybody was willing to follow the plan, it could work, but I can see either mafia or townies with strong reads willing to break the circle. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
zlefin, can you explain your reads on Trfel and jarjar ? | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
I first thought you posted that to induce discussion with ambiguous content. But actually that info was easily checked on your game history. So my current opinion is : you spoke the truth because hiding it would be suspicious. So, as I said, I didn't like the post, but I still like the overall picture of your posting and I'd color that post more null than ambiguous now. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
On February 16 2015 07:22 The Shining wrote: [...] Ely, what in my last post before yours made you think I was hinting at posting more? This post for clarification: Obviously I did plan on posting more but this post was explaining expected INactivity, not activity. I like that you have given at least basic explanations for your early reads but I'd like to see more of you. What do you think of RSo's Hier push? You're right, I was overly interpreting your post. I red "When posts pick up I'll be there" for no reason... I liked the push as a pressure tool, and it made Hier react, so it had its effect. Still don't know how to interpret his counter vote, if it's OMGUS or something else. Gonna analyze and share my thoughts. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
First impression is that Hier is a misguided town, but i'm not convinced on that read, because he has mainly done two things : 1)Defend his Bridges plan. 2)Attack rsoultin. Hier, can you really not share your reads, even if they are not complete ? Any insight can be useful at this point in the game. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
I've read the thread again, filter dived a bit and my first conclusions are : I'm not lynching Trfel and The Shining today. They are contributing and I like their thought process. Most likely town Next post is gonna be long, so bear with me. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
On February 16 2015 21:07 zlefin wrote: I would like it if you did that, I find this post of yours feels scummy to me. It feels like a lot of blather, and needlessly fanc y words (admittedly something I tend to do myself), that say very little and amount to a post that doesn't really add anything. I kinda agree with you on that post zlefin, and it's not the only post where I feel Hier is almost trying to confuse us. Hier, I think this is inconsistent with the fact that you proposed a plan based on "eliminating chaos". I understand that you're saying "I don't want to create unnecessary discussion", and that is consistent with your thought process, but I still have trouble following you on some posts. (post for reference) On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote: jarjarbinks, Trfel: Purely numerically completely off the wall random lynches win out over the Bridges method by a little over 2 percentage points at the second lynch; it is negligible. In both cases mafia’s odds of escaping 2 lynches in a row are a little better than a coin flip. Better blind mathematical odds are not, however, what I’m advocating. I am selling a platform, a canvas, through which reads can be made. You say people will be content with the predetermined 2nd lynch and activity will drop – I say you’re wrong. As long as there are 2 sides that want to win arguments will always arise, except in this case they will be of a different nature: justification of substitution, rather than a timed mandatory witch hunt. Bandwagons will certainly not be eliminated, but through this method they will demand sturdier foundations, which eliminates chaos. [...] Plus as other players said, you were only talking about your plan and your scumread on rsoultin, half justified by "She is next on my list" and "She has null reads". Later, you said "Null reads are bad and counter productive". I disagree on that, because it promotes more effort from the person that is painted as null. If I don't have clear scumreads, I'm gonna analyze my null reads first. I do agree that saying "I've got a nullread on an inactive" is not constructive, but on active players, It is. (post for reference) On February 16 2015 04:23 Hier wrote: I was excited seeing so many new posts, turns out it was for naught. A lot of people are requesting that I provide further reads. I am going to point out that as off right now ElyAs, zlefin, jarjarbinks, and Trfel have not a single scum read with justification between them. Instead what we have from them is a mass of neutral to townish reads that they aren’t willing to commit to, opting to wait for more posts from other people by asking for their reads. I have provided my prime scum read with justification. Of course rsoultin may just not be very good at the game, which is fine, but I’ll stand by my claim. The Shining’s scum read on zlefin isn’t without rationale, but I suspect the second mafia player to be one of the two inactive players. I do not have a solid town read, in fact it doesn’t make sense to, and stating you are neutral about that guy and that guy isn’t productive. Now, you said you were going to focus on somebody else, I look forward to this. But until then, ##vote Hier | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
Plus, I didn't see anybody actively defending Hier, this is generally a sign of a mislynch if I'm not mistaken Trfel, saw your post as I was writing mine, I'm not satisfied with this lynch to be honest. I hope you're still around, do you want to ask me something ? | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
He waited till now to vote Hier, and is actually pushing Hier by giving some food for thought. I actually used that post in my case against Hier, but the content itself feels coherent with Hier's thought process. (post for reference) On February 16 2015 21:07 zlefin wrote: I would like it if you did that, I find this post of yours feels scummy to me. It feels like a lot of blather, and needlessly fanc y words (admittedly something I tend to do myself), that say very little and amount to a post that doesn't really add anything. Something tickles me about this post : On February 17 2015 06:19 zlefin wrote: disappear? I was shoveling! There's snow out there ya know, in some places. Lunch is more important than mafia, so go and eat and enjoy! While true, It is actually the last chance we have at a counterwagon, so it would be the time to review our options. I dislike last minutes shenanigans, so it's now or never. Admittedly it's scarce, I'm going to filter dive further to see if I get something interesting. You'd rather me continuing on that train of thought or analyzing the larger picture and exchanges between all the players ? | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
He attacks Tere more than rsoultin right now, even though there was no wagon on Tere. He is clearly not trying to save himself, he sounds resigned, but he is trying to follow-up and get town information for after his flip. Is a Tere case really far-fetched ? I'm gonna try to look into that. | ||
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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ElyAs
France205 Posts
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