EPTn.b.: I'm also /in for Normal Ass Normal Game, I'm going to /out of whichever game starts last cuz I'm an indecisive sissy and can't pick between two stellar pitches
Newbie Mini Mafia LV
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
n.b.: I'm also /in for Normal Ass Normal Game, I'm going to /out of whichever game starts last cuz I'm an indecisive sissy and can't pick between two stellar pitches | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
 | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 19 2014 14:07 27ninjabunnies wrote: Only the best holiday ever. Jk, Mardi Gras is. yes, yes it is I didn't think anyone else celebrated that! prolly not like we do in Louisiana tho | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
other people from Louisiana hype elevated where at? I go to LSU | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
that's right after basically all of my pre-finals bullshit is out of the way | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 02:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I'd love to be masons with Amiko. That would be cool. hands off my man | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Something's off about him. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 11:12 mtamburini wrote: Ill do my best not to mis hammer this game. :-( Says the guy wanting to lead the town. I'm sure that will end well. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 11:19 27ninjabunnies wrote: Oh yeah, I know exactly the game you are talking about. But remember this Tamburini, I have wrecked you both as mafia and as town. So you better hope we are both town, because I will bury your ass so far into the ground, you can't even rise as a zombie. Great, it's another Robik, with an extra dose of "need to prove myself." | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 11:33 mtamburini wrote: Good qualities in a leader is keeping town on the right track and not derailing conversation. Putting pressure on people when you can smell the scum coming off their posts. And the most important part is always be right and pray to god your not wrong. The best part of being wrong though is you can reevaluate why you lynched that person and see what direction the previous day was going. Also seeing who dies in the night helps us take into consideration what they have said before they died and take them as genuine reads. Why do you want to lead the town? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 11:40 27ninjabunnies wrote: @Eden: Reaction testing: yes. Cunning: absolutely. Am I rescinding? No. So what did you learn from this? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 10:54 Epishade wrote: I got a heavy scumread on MysteryMeat guys. Thoughts, Eden? Depends on whether you mean "scum" as "mafia" or "scum" as in "terrible person." | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 11:47 27ninjabunnies wrote: As I stated earlier, I don't like how he reacted. He claimed mafia, which yeah, I get seems trolly. And sure he may be town, but I've played games where a person has claimed mafia, even voted on themselves, and has lived til final mafia and won as mafia. So as of now, I don't like Yell0w, and until he proves otherwise, I'm keeping my vote on him. What did you learn from this? That you're new to forum mafia and have a chip on your shoulder. This doesn't tell me anything about either of your alignments. You seem genuine enough so far, so I suppose it's not all bad. But you didn't really answer my question. Maybe we're not referring to the same thing. What was your reaction test, and what did it teach you about the game state? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I'm not sure why you think I have a chip on my shoulder. Intuition. Don't worry yourself over it. I'd not have volunteered it but for your asking what I learned. So that was my reaction testing. I see. I thought the vote was the test. You're making the right moves by asking questions and digging into the responses you get, but remember to read the responses you get from both town and scum angles. I think it's pretty clear that Yell0w wasn't serious. @Epishade: I think you're pushing this case too strongly, I agree. and, if anything I'm getting more of a scum read from you than anyone else yet. I disagree. bunnies is my best town read not involving my role PM right now. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 12:10 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Wait, Eden, why do you mention your role PM? It's how I know I'm town. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE: Sweetfrost | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##UNVOTE ##VOTE: Epishade | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 29 2014 12:27 27ninjabunnies wrote: I mean, I'm all for reaction testing, but can someone explain to me why this is okay to do, and what I did apparently is scummy as fuck? Especially when I havent seen sweetfrost talk once? Sure. What you did isn't scummy at all, and the people telling you as much are fools or worse. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Back to work. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: dfs The other non-posters are in Western/Central Europe so I'll give them a chance to show me when they wake up that they mean to play. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
@bunnies: Do you still think mtamburini is scummy? And if so, how do you feel about the fact that he's been pushing Yell0w harder than everyone else except for you? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE Yell0w I reread his filter and I don't like it at all. I put my vote down while I was writing this. Here's what I've got. N.B.: I've only thoroughly read his filter so far, haven't fully caught up in the thread proper. I've read a few things here and there to get context on his posts, but that's about it. - Initial interactions with bunnies: Upon rereading his filter, I don't like the tone of this post: On April 29 2014 12:18 Yell0w wrote: Well I am glad this issue got resolved rather peacefully, I now unfortunately have to sleep, but I will see you all tomorrow. Also I'm pretty convinced bunnies is town now, probably epishade too, the rest I don't know. bunnies certainly didn't seem to think the issue was resolved, for one. Seems like he's a little eager to sweep aside bunnies's initial prodding. His reaction also doesn't line up with his words before. He called bunnies "insane" for her line of questioning, then is immediately okay with her 20 minutes later. There's some other stuff that's wrong too, namely... On April 29 2014 11:33 Yell0w wrote: And in how many games have you been where somebody claim town and ends up being mafia? I think that happens more often than people who claim mafia and are mafia, therefore I'm statistically innocent. Please. "I think X is more likely than Y, X clears me, therefore I'm statistically innocent" is a self-evidently terrible argument. On April 29 2014 11:46 Yell0w wrote: @bunnies: Why would I need luck? Are you that convinced I'm mafia? Or is it that you just want to lynch me anyways for other reasons? Like, you actually are mafia and you're just jumping on any reason to lynch a town? This an agonizing 30 minutes before townclearing her, and 10 minutes before telling Amiko that he thinks she's town. This guy is way too defensive in the face of a bad initial argument from bunnies. - Worrying Way Too Much About Being Suspicious: I'm of course referring to this post. Who cares? What good does it do to know what rikory wanted to hear? If you're town you shouldn't care. It gets worse in his next post: On April 29 2014 21:47 Yell0w wrote: Just woke up, first thing I see is clearly the discussion on me restarted because I asked a question to ritoky( I think I got your name right this time), and just to make it clear here, I wasn't asking how to be more towny, I was asking him how he would have responded, because he said my response wasn't ideal, so I was curious what the ideal response, in his opinion, was, didn't know asking questions was frowned upon. I was actually really happy with my response and wouldn't have changed it in any way, I think it created a big conversation really early in day 1, which is pretty great. And I have a coach if I have questions like "how to be more town?", I wouldn't ask that in the thread. Still catching up though, will probably post more. So for one, straw men like "didn't know asking questions was frowned upon" raise my red flags immediately. This isn't a genuine question or remark at all. Secondly, again, why is he so worried about what ritoky thinks? This is silly if he's town (as it's distracting from scumhunting with useless conversation) and sensible if he's scum (as it's attempting to gauge why ritoky finds it suspicious in order to change behavior and become less suspicious). It gets better, believe it or not... On April 29 2014 21:55 Yell0w wrote: Just to point it out, how is this question better? She's basically asking the same thing, wondering what she did that was scummy so she can stop doing it. I'm just saying. Now he's whining about how bunnies isn't getting asked about the same thing, as though (a) both questions are the same in the first place and (b) in all other respects their play has been identical. I think the questions are similar but coming from different places -- bunnies is wanting to know why I'm not getting negative attention for my votes when people are calling pressure voting suspicious (town-motivated), Yell0w is just whining about how people are paying attention to him (scum-motivated or at best not-pro-town). bunnies has also separately been very proactive, Yell0w isn't (see next point). - Reactive Behavior: Yell0w hasn't done anything to be proactive this game. Part of it is being on the defensive early, but he's had plenty of time since then to build his own cases or even question people without being questioned first. This hasn't happened as an overall trend. He's hopped on the "Eden is weird" bandwagon, conveniently mentioning that he thought me "most suspicious" last night without doing any questioning either to develop his suspicions into a coherent case or to dispel them. Just like his "suspicion" of bunnies which was dropped in about a half hour (see above), he goes from "Eden was my top suspect last night" to "His behavior was really... weird [...] but it doesn't necessarily strike me as being mafia plays, so I don't know" in about an hour. Then immediately afterwards he jumps on "Sweetfrost is weird" when Epishade said it. This post is terrible: On April 30 2014 04:25 Yell0w wrote: @Epishade Just wanted to say that I agree about everything you said on Sweetfrost, and I also wanted to add that I feel like he didn't even read the entire thread when he says something like: When I really don't think I made any sarcastic or joking remarks since I became a suspect, I think he just went with what tamburini said to say I'm the prime suspect without actually reading what I said. Also, unrelated, but that is actually something I wanted to talk about and forgot, I do think it's really important to act town if you're town, so other townies know you're town too, if no one believes you're town, they won't listen to you, won't lynch with you, it can lead to a mafia win just because the townies weren't being obvious townies so nobody trusted anybody. He "wanted to add" this factoid about Sweetfrost not reading the thread, but at the same time he doesn't actually do it until someone else expresses suspicion of Sweetfrost. OK. And then this passage at the end is just full of applause lights. tl;dr: - interaction with bunnies isn't good at all - way too defensive - not proactive or scumhunting at all Vote Yell0w. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 30 2014 05:28 sqrtofneg1 wrote: And where were you the last couple of hours? You were active during that time last game. It's the most wonderful time of the year. Finals and a big career move are eating a lot of my time. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- Still feeling good about bunnies. I'll get back to what I was asking her about mtamburini when I'm done rereading (assuming where I was going with it is still relevant). - Sweetfrost's filter is horrendous, but I'm not sure what it means yet because it's hard to envision Sweetfrost and Yell0w both being scum right now. - mtamburini is... ehh. His more recent posts have been okay, and he's been on Yell0w's case a lot, which is good, but there's not a lot of useful content in his filter. Not sure I want to call him town yet but he's trending that way in his filter. - dravernor is sketchy, and I think he makes sense as Yell0w's teammate. Aside from "my that Yell0w fell0w sure seems to be the topic of attention wouldn't you say my friends" and "I really don't think the Yell0w fell0w is mafia chaps" he's not taken firm stances on people and has made it a point to say that no one is really acting suspicious (which I think is patently false). - ahswtini had a good post here but I don't like the lack of commitment to any stances on people. Kinda in the same boat as dravernor if not for the post I just highlighted. He's not really distinguishing himself from the crowd. Null. - MysteryMeat1 is inactive as hell and hasn't posted anything but applause lights when he has posted seriously. I'm fine with frying him. - dfs seems fine. Wish he were more active but otherwise I don't have any real complaints, nothing's jumping out. His initial summary post irked me but he's since developed it and asked some questions based off of it. - Yell0w is scum. - Epishade still feels like he could be Yell0w's partner, but he's active and I think I read too much into his posts last night and saw something that wasn't actually there. The only major mark I have against him is that he's remaining noncommittal about Yell0w. It's weird that he says he's "not against the lynch yet" wrt Yell0w, but he was already actively defending him against the lynch last night. If Yell0w is town (and I don't think he is, but for sake of argument), then I'll move Epishade to my town pile. If Yell0w is scum then I can't ignore my intuition telling me "kill this guy." - Amiko is town, just wrong about me. I think this one's pretty self-evident, he's asking good questions and making cases. If anyone actually disagrees with this then I can elaborate but I don't think this merits a lot of discussion right now. sqrt's filter is too long and ritoky's too substantial for me to break down right now, I'm about to be gone for a little while. I'm not lynching sqrt today anyway (rule of thumb: never lynch the most outspoken person). I'll read through ritoky's stuff later. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
tl;dr: - kill Yell0w - kill Epishade if Yell0w is scum, otherwise he's probably okay - dravernor, ahswtini, MysteryMeat1, Sweetfrost are good other scum targets - mtamburini needs to do more - everyone else I'm fine with | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
So I thought about Eden's post a little bit and basically most of what he says is really inconsistent with his behavior last night where he didn't seem to think I was mafia, yet half of his points are things I said during that time, I mean why didn't he bring it up then when I was under fire? I didn't give a clear statement about your guilt or innocence last night because I wasn't sure about it at the time. On rereading, I saw things I missed the first time, and I'm voting you now for them. What's the issue here? So few things, first I already talked about bunnies and my reasoning as to why I think she's town, you didn't bring anything more that wasn't already said here. Second, you were the first to move off the conversation about me when bunnies unvoted me and you started voting other people and stuff, so I have no idea how you could possibly bring up that as an argument against me. Also, I didn't say she was insane and I see no issue with disagreeing with someone's reasoning and still thinking they're town. Third, you actually think knowing what other people think isn't important as town? I think it's primordial to the game, if you know what they think you know what alignment they are. I do not understand your logic here. You said "it's insane to me that you would think X," I don't really see where that's any different from calling her insane, but that's not really the point. Here you soft-accused her of being scum, here you start to back down, here is the "insane" quote I mentioned and then here you call her a strong town read. This entire sequence occurred in a 30-minute span without any explanation at all. You can't credibly say you "disagreed with [her] reasoning while still thinking [she's] town." I didn't say it's unimportant to know what someone's thinking, either. That's another sweeping generalization of someone's argument that you've made in here. Your logic is sloppy, probably deliberately so. I did say you shouldn't be worrying about what others think about your alignment if you're town. As town, it's not important to know why someone thinks you're town or scum, no. You know what your alignment is. Whatever someone else is saying about your alignment shouldn't matter to you. They're either right or wrong, and if they're right, who gives a shit, and if they're wrong, you can always prove them wrong by finding scum. Why waste time defending yourself (which doesn't catch scum) when you can catch scum (which does defend yourself)? Instead, you seem content to do nothing but attempt to dissuade others' concerns about you. This doesn't advance the town's goal of catching scum. It advances the scum's goal of not getting caught. The reason I haven't been proactive is, well first I was being attacked, but also I don't like telling all my reads early in day 1, I think it's counter productive because if I say this or this thing that person did seemed mafia to me, they can easily change their behavior, so I don't say everything I think. This boldface part is great, considering the extent to which you've been asking questions about how to look more town. So it's okay for you not to be productive because you don't want to tip off the scum to your suspicions and give them the chance to change their behavior to be less suspicious, but when others take issue with things you say, you're going to ask questions that would allow you to change your behavior to be less suspicious? How does any of this help the town? Again, it looks like you're just trying to look good and stay out of trouble instead of getting into it and finding scum. That's the only decent argument you have, and if that's just it, there are better targets here, in my opinion. Name them, and then tell me why you haven't been doing anything to catch them. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
So basically you're just saying the same things again? http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong mysterymeat1, I don't think he did anything at all, yet seems present in the thread just lurking. ahswtini, basically just said he didn't like sarcasm because it caused confusion and said that he didn't suspect tamburini and was on the fence on sweetfrost, that's pretty much it, no suspicious read at all. I think dfs also hasn't said much, he did say tamburini was suspicious, don't quite remember if someone said it before though. And I disagree with the second part of your question. So you've just listed people that you think have been acting less proactively and more scummy than you. (Otherwise you didn't answer my query to "name [the better targets].") Can you link me to any significant interactions you've had with them? If you can't, how can you possibly disagree with my assertion that you haven't done anything to catch them, if you've made no cases against them and had no significant interactions with them? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 30 2014 10:08 Yell0w wrote: I'd be willing to lynch either of them. Yet you're not even taking the effortless action of voting for them, let alone putting in the legwork to build a case on them. Come on, guys, this dude is obviously mafia. He's not even trying to catch any scum. He has no answers for the questions that matter ("Why aren't you trying to find scum?"), only incoherent responses (the bulk of his posts in response to me haven't actually addressed the points I've made), non-responses (see the bit I quoted earlier and called "not even wrong"), and half-baked doubt to spread about half the town. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 30 2014 13:43 Yell0w wrote: @Eden I answered all of your points in either my response to you or in other posts, restating your points again doesn't mean I have to answer again, actually counter-argue my arguments and I might reply to you, please don't just link to another logical fallacy without saying anything. I just asked you why you weren't engaging anyone and you ignored it. Still have. It's because you're caught and don't have a good answer. Y'all seriously kill this man. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On April 30 2014 14:07 Amiko wrote: So, when Eden read you as his top town, he didn't have that answer from you yet. When he read you as his top town, he should have still thought you had not answered his question. When she told me that the vote wasn't part of the reaction test I decided her reaction test wasn't really worth looking at any further. It struck me as the prototypical "reaction test" inexperienced players tend to use, where they suspect someone already, press their suspect on a minor point and scumread the answer no matter what it is because of confirmation bias. I read her town at the time independent of that question and decided the question wasn't worth pursuing further, so I dropped it. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
It's a moot point now, obviously I found Yell0w suspicious anyway in the end and I'm satisfied with your play for the moment. Amiko, I like the precision of your questions, but where are they going? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 06:10 Epishade wrote: Dammit Meat, lol. Serious question now, does he get replaced/dropped, or is he just lucky he managed to place a vote before he got banned? He got banned? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 06:48 Epishade wrote: He got 2-dayed for making a joke in the TB has cancer thread. Ah. Is that what the lock is for? On May 01 2014 06:53 mtamburini wrote: Gonna be completely honest, all this reading gives me a headache I dont read this much for school. And to be hoenst I prob wont finish and I will read later again,.Im tired and hungry and Im just gonna claim my role. Im Bird Jesus and Ive got a target to shoot tonight right now but I will finish reading to find more connections to this person and/or more behavior I may have missed from everyone else. I like tunneling its fun and you cant tell a lot about a person when you do so along with everyone else in the game. Im like 85% certain on this person and if I do mis shoot, well I will retract town leader position and stick my tail between my legs and sit in the corner and think about what I have done. ...why would you claim in this scenario? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- If there's a mafia roleblocker, mtamburini just wasted our vigilante for literally no gain. - Even if he's not roleblocked, we have no way of knowing he's not the serial killer. In fact, his specific suggestion that the parity cop check him tonight and someone else n2 would fit perfectly with a serial killer planning to pick investigation immunity tonight. - I think an actual vigilante would have thought through these problems before claiming. - Even if we ignore the above, look at the context. This claim is basically "I'm just gonna claim because yolo didn't read." What purpose does this serve? How does this advance the town agenda? I don't think mtamburini is mafia, but I'm thinking there's a good chance he's the serial killer. I'm going to reread the whole thread and see how I feel about everyone else; I don't think this changes my scumread on Yell0w because mafia/sk is, from what I remember, a decent explanation for their interaction. While I'm reading, I want everyone online to tell me what they think about mtamburini's claim. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Serial Killer vs Mafia Specifically reading someone as a serial killer as opposed to mafia on the first day is typically pretty difficult. The main long-run pattern that distinguishes the serial killer from a mafioso is that the serial killer doesn't coordinate with a team; you're only going to catch them purely by scumhunting in their actions specifically, as opposed to teasing them out as hypothetical teammates. On the first day, however, you can't really tease out mafia teammates definitively because you don't have any flips yet. All this to say that on the first day, behavioral analysis can tell us if someone is not town, but not if they are mafia or serial killer, because on the first day their behavioral incentives are largely the same. Usually, on the first day, that's enough of an obstacle to prevent being able to zero in on the serial killer. However, if the person in question talks enough about mechanical factors -- like roles -- as opposed to behavioral reads, certain divergent incentives can be parsed out which allow us to make the distinction between serial killer and mafia successfully. I intend first to prove that mtamburini's behavior is misaligned with town incentives and aligned with scum incentives (whether mafia or serial killer) and second to prove that mtamburini's role discussion doesn't align with mafia incentives but with serial killer incentives. This in turn will demonstrate that mtamburini is the serial killer. Why mtamburini Isn't Town Buddying mtamburini has been buddying 27ninjabunnies a lot throughout the game. It started during the joke phase, which is fine enough, but it continued on after bunnies started serious talk in this post -- directed, no less, at him. She calls him scum for trying to establish himself as town leader, which to me indicates drawing a clear line in the dirt saying "the game starts now." Here's a list of his posts buddying bunnies: - Here he says he REALLY hopes they're both town, invites her to rewatch an epicmafia game. The latter game is completely off-topic and we've moved on from the joke phase. The phrasing of that post is also bothering me. - Here is some completely useless filler cheerleading bunnies's pressure on Yell0w. Well, not totally useless. He's communicating to us that he saw this going down and didn't feel like commenting on it or developing it in any way. - Here, my god, what? His point on Yell0w is decent, but why the hell does he need bunnies to hold his hand while he votes for Yell0w? Is bunnies his seeing-eye dog, guiding him to the polling booth so that he can fulfill his civic duty to vote? - Here he takes up for bunnies in response to Yell0w's question. This isn't too bad and in isolation I wouldn't bother pointing it out. I made the same point. But in combination with these other examples it's clearly revealing a trend. - Free prize inside, he's buddying dfs here instead. Talking About Irrelevant Shit The title says it all, a good quarter of this guy's filter has nothing to do with the game. - [http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=12#225]No one cares about his past games.[/url] - No, really, no one gives a shit about his past games. - I can't tell what's worse, his ability to stay on-task or his music taste. - Is moose in this game? - Is moose a codename? Your favorite animal? What does this have to do with the game??? I was fair about this assessment and only took the posts from after the point I previously determined to be the beginning of "serious mode." You can see from the timestamps that this wasn't some isolated event, the guy went on like this for quite some time. Not Scumhunting This one might be a little bit of a surprise. He's pushing hard on Yell0w, right? So how can we write him up for scumhunting? Except that if we understand "scumhunting" to mean "an individual questioning or engaging suspects on a substantial level in order to develop his or her own case for killing a certain player," mtamburini hasn't really done anything like that. Let's look at his posts on Yell0w and see whether he qualifies or not... - Here he makes a good start, buddying of bunnies aside. Yell0w is indeed suspicious for worrying as much as he is about being townie. But he literally doesn't do anything to develop this point any further. Yell0w and I, for example, talked for a few posts back-and-forth about this point and what it means. mtamburini doesn't engage Yell0w on this at all: he never asks Yell0w why he was so worried about looking townie, nor does he respond to anything Yell0w said to me or to others about this same point when we did press Yell0w on it. - Here he adds "sarcasm" as a reason to lynch Yell0w. Not only is this point independently terrible, he does nothing to develop it further, and he commits the same behavior he says is indicative of scum, then when Yell0w calls him out on it, he doesn't even bother to handwave it, he just ignores Yell0w's point completely. - Here he says that Yell0w's defense has been "WIFOM" and not-game-related. Please. This coming from the king of off-topic nonsense. And simply handwaving everything someone says as "WIFOM" is utterly unconvincing. - Here in his role claim he says "I like tunneling its fun." At this point he's openly admitting that he's not trying to find mafia. Tunneling isn't trying to find mafia. mtamburini is scum because he's been buddying heavily, he's posted a lot of contentless trash and he's not actually scumhunting, just finding an excuse to park his vote on someone and ride out the phase. Why mtamburini Isn't Mafia mtamburini says that he claimed in order to dispel any confusion about there being multiple kills tonight, arguing that it's common practice in video mafia. For there to be any confusion about kills tonight, the number of kills in the night would have to subvert our expectations regarding the number of deaths. That means there would need to be more or fewer kills. mtamburini is telling us there will be more (he specifies two kills instead of one). If he were mafia, then he would have no way of assuring us that there's an extra kill, and he would have needlessly put himself in the line of fire on day two because he would have had to argue that the person he shot was separately shot by the mafia. This only works if he's the vigilante or the serial killer. The second thing pointing to him being the serial killer is his argument about the parity cop. He says that the parity cop should check him first then someone else n2, so that the parity can have perfect information about his scans. This would effectively turn the parity cop into a normal cop, which substantially increases the power of the cop. Doing this as mafia doesn't make sense; as soon as someone flips the wrong way, he's caught. This only works if he would actually scan as an innocent. He would scan as an innocent if he were the vigilante, the godfather, or the serial killer. Even if he's the godfather, though, this is a very bad strategy because the parity cop scanning the godfather as innocent still gives perfect information to the town; if the parity cop happened to scan his scumbuddy next, the scumbuddy would be lynched and flip guilty. This makes a lot of sense if he's a serial killer planning to take investigation immunity, however. In that case, anyone who scanned opposite to him would get lynched, which advances his agenda of killing off the mafia. Furthermore the mafia can't afford to nightkill him n1 because if he does take investigation immunity, he's effectively "upgraded" the parity cop to a normal cop. And if the mafia aren't going to nightkill him, and he's the serial killer, he doesn't have to worry about being nightkilled, so nightkill immunity isn't helpful anyway. He has no reason not to take investigation immunity here. mtamburini is the serial killer because his proposed strategy regarding his role and the parity cop doesn't make sense unless he's either the serial killer or the vigilante, and he's not town (see first half of case). mtamburini is the serial killer. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE mtamburini | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 09:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote: After reading that, I see the strong probability that tambo is serial killer. However, what if he is vigi? We lose a huge asset. For mafia, who would be the logical n1 kill? The vigi claim. That's obvious. Whether or not he's serial killer doesn't matter to them, mafia's not gonna take that chance. Mafia will kill him n1. I say we let him be. I say we take the chance and believe him. If he's the vigilante then he's either getting shot tonight (in which case he gets to use 1 kp at most) or he's getting roleblocked (in which case he'll never get to shoot). I should have gone over that in more detail in my analysis, but my posts preceding it should suffice I think. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 11:17 sqrtofneg1 wrote: If you're town, are you more concerned about a serial killer? or are you more concerned about mafia? As town, I'm more concerned about mafia, which are guaranteed to be in the setup, rather than the serial killer. After a bit of mulligan, I've noticed something. Eden is mafia. He has been talking quite a bit less than the other game. He pushes yellow first. Then he gets out the serial killer case on tambo. Before this, he was pretty much sure that yellow was mafia. It doesn't make sense to go after serial killer if you're town, and you have a mafia suspect, because what if tambo was telling the truth? From a townie's perspective, he should have stuck with the yellow lynch, rather than potentially killing vigi. He changed his vote to tambo because he believes the vigi claim. He's afraid of leaving the vigi alive. That means, that if eden is mafia, there's definitely no roleblocker. Yes, it is possible that tambo is serial killer. However, Eden's actions following tambo's roleclaim is a dead giveaway of his alignment. Eden is mafia. You're not assessing this properly. Take a look at my incentives with each alignment. Town: I want to kill the serial killer and the mafia if I believe both to be in the game. I think mtamburini is fakeclaiming as serial killer because his claim only makes sense in the scenario I described in my big post. He's just making himself the n1 kill if he's actually the vigilante, which is colossally stupid. It's better for me to kill the serial killer over a mafia because removing the serial killer takes away 1 of the 2 anti-town kp. If I killed, say, Yell0w and he flipped scum, we've caught a mafia, but we're equally close to winning (as in either case we've killed 1 anti-town player), and we still have 2 anti-town kp instead of one to deal with. The serial killer is always the better kill. Mafia: I can just shoot mtamburini tonight without drawing any attention to myself if I think he's actually the vigilante. If I'm mafia and I come out with this big case saying that the vigilante is actually the serial killer, and I don't get him lynched, I'm getting shot that night. If I do get him lynched, I'm getting myself lynched the next day. In both cases I'm needlessly throwing away my life to get rid of a vigilante I could just shoot that night at no cost. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 11:40 Epishade wrote: Goddamn, this game is out of control. I am finding it pretty hard to look past Eden voting for Tamburini when Tamburini claims vigi. It just doesn't make sense. Tamburini wouldn't claim vigi as a serial killer in the CHANCE that there's not already a vigi in the game. My mind's been a little jumbled lately since Tamburini roleclaimed because that threw my most likely candidate for scum out the window. But I really don't like Eden voting on a potential vigi, especially when that vigi is going to either die from mafia or get roleblocked later. It's a whole waste of a lynch on a potential confirmed town. I'm changing votes to Eden. I can't see a good possible reason to lynch Tamburini anymore, as much as I didn't like his roleclaim. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE Eden1892 Why not? Nothing in the ruleset forbids multiple of the same role from appearing in the game. On April 09 2014 00:01 Promethelax wrote: Set-up information Overview: The setup is a semi-open setup for 13 players; that is, all the possible roles are given but the number of each is not known. My turn for questions. 1) Why are you guys just blindly lining up to believe a role claim that makes no sense whatsoever from a townie POV and plenty of sense from an sk POV? 2) Epishade, what happened between "I think Eden's post brought up some good points about tamburini being the serial killer" to "tamburini wouldn't claim vigi as a serial killer"? You flipped on that in the span of an hour with no explanation. On May 01 2014 11:57 sqrtofneg1 wrote: If you're town, you don't want vigi to die. Sure, he might be SK, but he might be vigi also. You don't even know if there is a SK. I think tambo's claim was strange too, but I'm not willing to risk losing vigi. You are. That makes you mafia. No, it doesn't. You know better than this. You don't even have to look further than the last newbie claim to know my attitude about fishy claims on the first day. If I think I've got a legit read on someone as being anti-town, I don't give a fuck what they say they are, if they can't prove their claim in a reasonable way, I'm not trusting it. Cavalinho had no realistic way of verifying he was the parity cop last game, I lynched him without batting an eye d1 because I thought he was scum. tamburini can't prove his claim at all because there's no way to tell that he isn't the serial killer, I'm lynching him without batting an eye d1 because I think he's serial killer. If I'm wrong, no big deal, it's a setback but tamburini hasn't been helping us win at all with his behavior d1 and we're not going to win or lose based on power roles anyway. If I'm right, we just cut the anti-town kp in half on the first day. The choice is obvious to me. How is it not to you? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 12:07 sqrtofneg1 wrote: It's not obvious because there's no guarantee that there even is an SK. I'm not risking killing a vigi on the possibility that there is a SK. There's no guarantee that there even is a vigilante, either. I'm not risking not killing a SK on the possibility that there is a vigi. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
No, I don't think there's any "policy" decision to make, so to speak; the logic from role interactions doesn't give any absolute conclusion like it does in some cases (ex: don't lynch a d1 normal cop claim and make the mafia play around it). It comes down to whether or not you believe his claim. As I've argued before, his claim makes no sense from a town POV. He was completely unprompted. It was way too early out to be claiming to avoid a lynch. If he wanted to confirm himself as town he'd have waited until d2 to claim and then he'd have shot tonight, then claimed the kill on d2. No one asked him for his claim, and it distracted us for the last few pages. Furthermore he's done nothing substantial besides this to scumhunt or make any progress toward clarifying the game state. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 02 2014 01:38 Amiko wrote: @Eden1892: I agree with you generally, this doesn't make sense to me given mtamburini's preferences. Please answer this: Why is the serial killer a better lynch when the serial killer seems to want to shoot yell0w, who you think is mafia? 1) Presume he's the serial killer, how do we know he can be trusted to follow through? I don't trust the guy as far as I can throw him, and I can't throw him for shit. 2) Has he actually explicitly stated this intention to kill Yell0w? The assumption isn't surprising, but I don't think he ever said who he was actually going to kill. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 18:10 LoneMeow wrote: Vote (slave) count: Sweetfrost (2): mtamburini (3): Epishade (1): dfs (0): Yell0w (1): Eden1892 (1): sqrtofneg1 (1): Sweetfrost ahswtini (1): MysteryMeat1 (1): ashwtini Not voting (2): Amiko, dfs Currently, mtamburini is set to be lynched. Deadline is Thursday, May 01 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory! I can't tell who the wagons for today are since the votes are scattered. I think it'll be mtamburini and Sweetfrost. I want mtamburini obviously. Sweetfrost I can live with -- he's suspicious for sure, I just think mtamburini is the serial killer and needs to go today. But I'm more curious about something else from this count... ashwtini, ritoky, Sweetfrost, sqrt, mtamburini dravernor: Why aren't you guys advocating for your preferred lynch choice? Nothing is off the table right now, but you're all sitting on outliers without making a concerted effort to get them killed. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 02 2014 02:58 Amiko wrote: @Eden If tamburini is the serial killer, he still has to play as a vigilante. If mtamburini doesn't shoot at yell0w, his play is strongly inconsistent since he has basically tunnelled yell0w the whole game. His best chance at passing as vig is shooting yell0w. If he shoots someone else and claims WIFOM then it is very suspicious (well... if he kills a mafia that isn't yell0w, that's not so bad). While mtamburini hasn't stated straight out that he will kill yell0w, I think that's the only reasonable person he can be referring to with his target with 85% certainty comment. For one, I don't think it would refer to anyone other than who he is voting for. Even if it did, it would be pretty awful to have that much confidence in someone as scum and not bring the person up as a lynch candidate. On the contrary, look at how he talked about his kill in the "reveal" post: On May 01 2014 06:53 mtamburini wrote: Gonna be completely honest, all this reading gives me a headache I dont read this much for school. And to be hoenst I prob wont finish and I will read later again,.Im tired and hungry and Im just gonna claim my role. Im Bird Jesus and Ive got a target to shoot tonight right now but I will finish reading to find more connections to this person and/or more behavior I may have missed from everyone else. I like tunneling its fun and you cant tell a lot about a person when you do so along with everyone else in the game. Im like 85% certain on this person and if I do mis shoot, well I will retract town leader position and stick my tail between my legs and sit in the corner and think about what I have done. "I've got a target to shoot, but I'll finish reading for more connections." "I'm 85% certain on this person and if I do mis-shoot I'll retract town leader position and go to the timeout corner." Then he immediately afterward posts: On May 01 2014 06:55 mtamburini wrote: Oh and a little more content on Yell0w that I didnt bring up before , he mentioned something about him having a coach and that he would just ask his coach for advice to be towny is such WIFOM and not game related. He's clearly not afraid to call Yell0w by name and talk directly about him. Why not tell us you're gonna shoot him? On May 01 2014 07:18 mtamburini wrote: Its common practice in the video mafia games that I play in the Vigilante claims and lets everyone know that they will be shooting in case they die in the night and 2 kills happen instead of 1 so there is no confusion the next day ( we usually play with 2 kp for mafia until there is 2 of them left with no flips). So you'd think that a guy so bent on clarity and openness of information with his claim would tell us upfront, right? But he isn't. He's pointedly choosing not to tell us. If he wants to shoot Yell0w, why did he repeatedly choose to say "a target" / "this person" and explicitly choose not to name his target? This kind of distancing language brings less, not more, clarity to the game state, and it's employed by liars who are uncomfortable with owning their statements. === And as a side-question, where the hell is he now? I would have expected a vigilante to check back in and argue for his innocence. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 02 2014 04:08 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I like this. Even when he's under suspicion, he's talking about his suspicions. Although I disagree with lynching Meat, the fact that he's saying this seems townie. How? He said outright a couple posts up that he found no one suspicious and he's settling on a guy who's literally unable to defend himself at all due to a ban. How is that setting off your townie alarm? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 02 2014 03:24 Amiko wrote: @Eden: Since mtamburini is apparently in the thread, if he promises to shoot yell0w do you still want to kill him? Are we gonna lynch him afterward? Because this doesn't prove anything about his alignment either. mtamburini: Please confirm for me that you'll shoot Yell0w tonight if we don't lynch you. Let's make this hypothetical actually matter here while I ponder it some more. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- I would say Sweetfrost except for the initial push he made on Yell0w. Can't see them being an item. Can't see them both being town, though, and he's not exactly contributing. I'd be fine with a Sweetfrost lynch in isolation, it's just the interaction with Yell0w is throwing me off. - dravernor hasn't done anything since yesterday. This is a problem. He's on an outlier with no significant case posted for his vote. This is a problem. - ashwtini we've been over, no suspects + really weak vote + no effort to get his target lynched = ezpzscummyskweezy - Yell0w | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Couple of caveats: - I haven't looked all that closely at him yet. I don't typically dig deep into people who are obvtown to me (cf. RolandJarvis in Newbie LIV) and sqrt's play so far has been doing all the right townie things. I have him on my list of "will reread filters for" but he's low on it. - I've only seen sqrt as the doctor. No scum priors so meta analysis is limited. But I think this supports the idea that he's town, because it means his change in mentality this game is the result of not feeling the need to hide as a power role. regarding your point on tambo shooting Yell0w, the fact that he explicitly continues to hide his kill is really making me think he's not shooting Yell0w. We can talk all day about how it's "obvious" that that's what he's doing, but if it's obvious to us that's what he's doing, it's obvious to the mafia as well, which means there really is no reason for him to hide it. Sorry, not buying it, he gets my vote. OUTLIERS: PLS EXPLAIN Y U STILL ON OUTLIERS | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 02 2014 06:32 Amiko wrote: @Eden: 1) Why does a SK enter thread the way mtamburini did? 2) Do you think SK is more likely to take veteran-power or scan immunity? I don't know why he entered the thread the way he did. I tried to incorporate that in my analysis when I was drafting it, but I can't explain it for any given alignment of his. It's just such a stupid play as the vigilante that I can't process how that could be it. At least as the serial killer the play makes sense, even if the execution is sloppy. I think the execution of his posts ("the way he entered the thread") is null because it doesn't appear to be advancing any agenda, and the direction behind his posts implicates him more strongly as serial killer than anything else. In general I think a serial killer is more likely to take veteran-power over scan immunity in a game with a parity cop, but I'm not sure how applicable that is to this scenario, because I don't think tambo would be talking about the cop scanning him at all if he hadn't already taken scan immunity. The whole bit about the parity cop kinda seemed to me like he was trying to bait a scan knowing he'd chosen scan immunity already. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I think his whole "town leader" shtick should be completely ignored because regardless of whether or not he's declaring himself town leader, he hasn't done a thing to lead the town. It's like that kid everyone knew in elementary school that always wanted to be team captain on the playground because he wanted to be a captain. I'd be more inclined to agree with you that a serial killer wouldn't put himself in the spotlight by trying to lead town if tambo had actually made a concerted effort at any point to lead town. But he hasn't, so I don't think it's worth factoring into this. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
And I'm actually kinda going the other way. Sweetfrost has no town motivation not to vote in self-defense -- if he's town he knows this would be a mislynch, he doesn't know that mtamborini would be, therefore he should switch. I'm not sure what his mafia motivation would be either, though. I don't think it means anything in and of itself. I don't think this is a bad lynch except for the fact that it means mtamborini isn't dying. Amiko, you're sure you won't switch? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- Outliers, outliers, outliers. Sweetfrost was lynched with 4 votes out of 13. That's barely 30% of the total number of players in this game. The alternative wagon was mtamburini with 3 votes. Between them that's under half the players. And we know the mafia had no particular incentive to favor one lynch over the other, so being on an outlier, away from the main conversation, fits. Specifically we need to look at people who didn't make strong cases and/or didn't push strongly for them. - Interactions. Not just Sweetfrost's suspects, though those should be looked at, but how did he interact with people and more importantly how did other people react to him? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Sweetfrost (4): 27ninjabunnies, Epishade, Amiko, sqrtofneg1 mtamburini (3): MysteryMeat1, Eden1892, Yell0w Epishade (1): dravernor Yell0w (1): mtamburini sqrtofneg1 (2): Sweetfrost, dfs MysteryMeat1 (1): ahswtini ahswtini (1): ritoky Outliers from Group II: - dravernor - mtamburini - Sweetfrost - dfs - ahswtini - ritoky dravernor didn't do anything to try to get people to vote for Epishade, but I understand he's having internet access and time issues. He literally didn't post for 48 hours after he voted Epishade. I'm not taking him off the list of suspects here but it's too hard to tell right now whether or not he's mafia parking on an outlier or whether he's just being strangled by internet access problems. mtamburini, as I previously observed a full two days ago now, hasn't been scumhunting and didn't develop a real case against Yell0w. I could maybe find it in my heart to look at him less negatively if he had, after being called out for not scumhunting or making a case, cleaned up his act and worked harder on making his case. Reading through his filter since he acknowledged my post against him, he made exactly one reference to Yell0w since, and that was only to declare him as the target he would shoot tonight. I don't see him being town-motivated here; even if you want to shoot Yell0w tonight, why aren't you making your vote count, and why aren't you trying to find other scum? I think his focus is obvious, he's the serial killer and he's preoccupied with keeping his story straight instead of scumhunting. Sweetfrost flipped town. dfs doesn't post much at all, but his style is reminding me of RolandJarvis's from Newbie LIV. It's significantly less thorough, but it's also nothing that I find particularly suspicious right now. And to be fair, sqrt *might* have been a viable wagon if the votes were even a little different. But I don't really see where dfs did much at the end to create that wagon. (cf. me trying to recruit people to kill mtamburini) I need to see more from him because what he HAS said is fine, but he hasn't said enough and I don't feel he tried hard enough to get his preferred candidate lynched. ahswtini voted MysteryMeat1 because his posts didn't have a lot of content to them, which he felt was scummy. I kinda see the logic to it, but I'm a little confused why he said he "has no scumreads" literally the post before he declares Meat scummy. My main problem is that he says he "can see the case for Sweetfrost [...] and so [he doesn't] want to just jump onto that vote." He then says, next sentence, that the "votes ARE dangerously spread out." He says this while actively contributing to the spread. I'm sure someone's going to say that's too dummy to be scummy / mafia would never be this blatant / etc. but I'm going with the straightforward answer here, he's mafia. ritoky fits as a possible partner of ahswtini despite voting for him. Why? Because he didn't make any effort to get ahswtini lynched. But his other posts seem to be trying to figure things out, and don't seem to be especially scum-motivated. I'd like ritoky to explain why he didn't work very hard to get people to kill ahswtini if he thought ahswtini is scum, and we'll go from there. This action moves him back to null because while everything he posted before then sounds good, his actions wrt voting don't look good, and I think that in the end you're going to catch scum not by whether their words seem townie or scummy but rather by how well their actions line up with what they're saying. ritoky did argue against both lynches, but he didn't argue in favor of his. If he's mafia, then knowing neither lynch candidate is mafia, he looks good objecting to both while parking his vote on a suspicious teammate. === I'm running out of time with this post, but there's two suspects (ahswtini and ritoky) if I die tonight. Tomorrow I'll work on cutting into the people on the major wagons and teasing out more possible suspects and interactions. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 03 2014 06:59 mtamburini wrote: Ive thought long and hard, but Im gonna put my shot on Yell0w tonight. ![[image loading]](http://cdn01.cdnwp.celebuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/14/jennifer-lawrence-10.gif) | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 03 2014 07:07 mtamburini wrote: So Yell0w why are you alive? I think that's what we should be asking you. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE mtamburini | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I think I believe that. We'll see if anyone cc's roleblock, but I'd have a hard time believing it since no one else was bluetelling. Alright, mtamburini. What does that say about Yell0w, in your opinion? I've got thoughts but I want to hear yours. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 03 2014 07:40 Yell0w wrote: But really you ask me why I'm alive and then you claim you were roleblocked? Why would you ask if you already knew? This. mtamburini's play continues to make less than no sense to me. On May 03 2014 07:43 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I think it was mafia sided roleblocker. I think I'm the only one who strongly believes yellow is town, and I'm not roleblocker. Why would a mafsided roleblocker stop mtamburini from killing a town player? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 03 2014 07:49 mtamburini wrote: I really wanted a reaction from you first ![[image loading]](http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view3/1290449/picard-facepalm-o.gif) | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
For one, I think you mean lynched, we don't know tambo is town. More importantly, though, why? We already established that tambo's night action isn't alignment-indicative unless he did something really dumb (like not shoot at all). It's weird to me that you're not suggesting Yell0w was framed. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 03 2014 11:29 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I agree that there probably is gonna be a time where we have to lynch between epishade an yellow. However, I think both are town. If it's me, epishade and yellow left, I think I will have to go for the yellow lynch tho. What? You hadn't expressed a strong opinion about Epishade. But you had on Yell0w: On May 03 2014 07:43 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I think it was mafia sided roleblocker. I think I'm the only one who strongly believes yellow is town, and I'm not roleblocker. Yet if it were 3p LYLO with Yell0w and Epishade you'd lynch Yell0w? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
When I said "look for people whose actions don't match their words," this is what I mean. I don't buy it. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: sqrtofneg1 | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 03 2014 11:48 sqrtofneg1 wrote: You know what I don't buy? I don't buy how you were so active last newbie game, but you're so inactive, in comparison, in this newbie game. I don't buy that. We've gone over this, career change and finals. I weighed replacing out during D1 but decided to stick to it. If you're just going to keep harping on irrelevant nonsense like my relative activity level, instead of actually making a case, and refuse to address the concerns I've got about you and others have about you, you can go ahead and get lynched now. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 04 2014 04:44 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Epishade is much more clearly town after this. Assume that I'm town. And that he's mafia. I'm already a bandwagon, it would be easy enough for him to jump on that. But he takes the time to vote yellow. Actually, y'all, I think this makes both of them mafia partners. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- sqrt says that Yell0w is a strong townread, based on events throughout the whole turn. But he says that he would lynch Yell0w over Epishade. When I confronted him about this he completely deflected with a stupid snarky comment about my inactivity instead of answering me. The deflection in particular has really set off alarms to me because I can't see why on Earth he wouldn't just answer me straight as town. This makes sqrt scum, and he wouldn't have any incentive to indicate a preference to preserve town!Epishade over town!Yell0w after townreading town!Yell0w. He obviously would if we're looking at scum!Epishade though. It's also possible that scum!sqrt just slipped up and forgot he was townreading Yell0w heavily, but I think it's more likely that he's defending a teammate. - Epishade stayed away from commenting on the sqrt case, opting instead to give an overly-lengthy explanation of his read on dravernor (neutral). He then opts for lynching Yell0w who he thinks is town... for... information? What? It's Day 2. We can do better than this. I see this as super-scummy and self-evidently so. sqrt then IMMEDIATELY townreads Epishade for this, which is utterly bizarre to me, because Epishade didn't try to gang up on sqrt. sqrt himself said it required us to accept his towniness which is certainly up in the air. I don't buy it and I think sqrt overstepped in trying to prop up his buddy. sqrt and Epishade are scumbuddies. I could see Epishade being town, maybe, and sqrt just slipping on his read of Yell0w, which is why I prefer sqrt. I'll take Epishade as well but I don't feel strongly about the others to lynch them over one of these two. I also have changed my mind about Yell0w after looking at this interaction. There's no way this whole thing goes down with Yell0w also being mafia. I think Yell0w is town looking at this. Still really suspicious of mtamburini, but he's trying to figure things out while half the game isn't, which runs contrary to the serial killer's MO of hiding in the crowd. He's trending town and I'm more inclined to believe he was the vigilante than I am yesterday. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I'm assuming the jailkeeper's roleblocking function is the same as a roleblocker's roleblocking function (that is, the target is notified regardless of her status as a power role or not). Let's look at all of the possible roleblocking functions. - mafia roleblocker (MRB) - town roleblocker (TRB) - town jailkeeper (TJK) There are therefore six possible role combinations: MRB/MRB MRB/TRB MRB/TJK TRB/TRB TRB/TJK TJK/TJK And nine possible explanations of what happened last night: #1: MRB/MRB targeted mtamburini/27ninjabunnies #2: MRB targeted tambo, TRB targeted bunnies #3: TRB targeted tambo, MRB targeted bunnies #4: MRB targeted tambo, TJK targeted bunnies #5: TJK targeted tambo, MRB targeted bunnies #6: TRB/TRB targeted tambo/bunnies #7: TRB targeted tambo, TJK targeted bunnies #8: TJK targeted tambo, TRB targeted bunnies #9: TJK/TJK targeted tambo/bunnies Anything involving the town roleblocker targeting bunnies is folly to me, as well as anything involving duplicate pairs. Just an intuitive guess on this one but I don't think there are duplicates of any of those roles. So that leaves #3, #4, #5, and #7. From there, I don't believe that a town-aligned role would roleblock mtamburini, because we were counting on mtamburini shooting Yell0w to confirm his killing-role claim. Therefore we're in scenario #2 and bunnies was jailed. Consequently this proves mtamburini was roleblocked by the mafia, which implies one of two things: 1) Yell0w is mafia and the mafia were protecting him from getting killed 2) Yell0w is town and the mafia were denying information about mtamburini while casting suspicion on Yell0w Next step is to look and see who was throwing suspicion on tambo and Yell0w today. We know sqrt and Epishade were throwing suspicion on Yell0w, I suspect any other mafia members would have been pressing on tambo. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
So I guess that's out. The other thought is that sqrt's and Epishade's partner(s) is/are lying low in a relatively inactive town and not really pushing on anyone. That's going to be people who aren't really putting out any visible effort to figure out the game state much. Here I'm looking at: - dravernor - ahswtini - mysterymeat1 - dfs - Yell0w Yell0w can be written off immediately given the push Epishade made to deflect from sqrt (see previous post about why Yell0w is town). ahswtini is also unlikely because I don't really think sqrt would bother pushing his teammate ahswtini. I could definitely see dravernor since Epishade went to so much trouble to point out his good and bad stuff and then settled on a lazy "null" read, looks to me like he's just trying to make sure he has ostensibly-meaningful interaction with his partner. dfs is kinda in the background some and mysterymeat made a point of telling us he'd post a lot more, then hasn't. Right now I'd say scumteam is sqrt, Epishade, dravernor. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I'm feeling good enough about you to say that you're vigilante instead of serial killer. Now validate my read and tell me what your theory of what's happening is. You look like you're trying to figure it out, I want to know what you're thinking. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
As for why not Yell0w, because we're blatantly being set up to lynch him today. If there are 4 mafia (which isn't unreasonable with 13 people) then one more mislynch puts us at LYLO. I'm not wasting our possible only mislynch on information. We need to get scum. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
What do you think about killing sqrt, Epishade or dravernor? Especially sqrt. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
tambo, what do you think about my case on sqrt? Do you think sqrt is town or mafia? People who aren't voting sqrt: Why aren't you? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 05 2014 08:53 Epishade wrote: You guys lynched Sqrt-buddy! How could you! Says the guy who didn't make a serious attempt to rebut the case against sqrt or himself, or to push Yell0w, his mafia read, as a superior lynch to sqrt, his apparently strong town read. You'll forgive me if I'm unimpressed. If you really felt this strongly about sqrt being innocent, where the hell were you today? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
TAMBO: Who are you shooting tonight? We're down to 10, so if we're at 4 then a wrong shot would lose the game. I know you wanted to keep your cards close to the chest last night, but we really need to sort this out as a group here. My thought is that if you're going to hit town then they'll let it go through but if you're going to hit mafia they'll roleblock you. A lot's riding on your shot but if we're still around to discuss it tomorrow we'll have a damn good idea about where to go. I'm all for you shooting tonight, even with the risks, provided we can get a good bead on a mafia to shoot. So who do you want to shoot tonight? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
You're right, though, discussing it doesn't advantage us, we just give the mafia a road map on how to play the night. Don't answer that, tambo. Just don't let your paranoia guide your shot. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
i'll be better about posting tomorrow afternoon and beyond | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Brief response to Epishade: 1) nothing to say, I fucked up in asking the question, you rightfully called me on it and I acknowledged my mistake and retracted the question. this should be a null point because both town and scum optimal play is to retract. I don't get why you're reading it scum 2) this isn't a contradiction at all. we need to get rid of anti-town and our lynches should be using that as our guiding goal, not lynching for information like tambo wanted to do with Yell0w. if as I did on D1 I believe there's an sk and I have a good read on him, my optimal play is to kill him because it cuts the anti-town kp in half. aside from that, kill scum. by D2 I was convinced that tambo was the real vig so I dropped the sk line of argument and moved on to scum reads 3) of course I'm not going to assume sqrt is town if I'm developing a theory about who sqrt's teammate is. why would I do that? assuming he's town defeats the point of the entire exercise because he doesn't have a partner I'm still sorting out what I think about Epishade, his arguments here are pretty bad and I'm not sure if it's deliberate or not. I think I wouldn't want to lynch him by default because he's trying to figure out the game state whereas other players (ahswtini, dfs, mysterymeat1, dravernor) aren't. @MysteryMeat1: ritoky was strongly townreading me, where are you getting the idea that he wasn't === Power roles should claim now with any data they have imo. I don't know if we're at LYLO or LYLO-1 but I'm assuming the worst-case scenario (LYLO) until given reason to think otherwise. We should hopefully be able to POE from here. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
TAMBO loafed around... | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 06 2014 10:30 Epishade wrote: 1). I suppose the point I was trying to make in my first point wasn't as clear as I wanted it to be. Why did you ask that question in the first place? What made you think that the answer would be relevant to you at all, unless you were scum? 2). I still disagree with you here. By attempting to lynch Tamburini, which was a probable 50/50 chance of being vig or serial killer at the time, you were wasting our lynch. Tamburini made the bad move of roleclaiming vig. Chances that he wouldn't be roleblocked by mafia from then on were slim-to-none. Even if he were serial killer, he wouldn't be able to kill anyone because he'd be roleblocked by mafia still. It was a waste to organize a lynch against him, knowing that he was not mafia. 3). I guess that was a dumb point. It sounded good in my head when I wrote it down, but I'll concede point 3 after rereading it. Hell, I withdrew my scumread on Ritoky when Tamburini claimed vig and Sweetfrost flipped town, as I made Ritoky's scumread based on his interactions between the two. So then do you have a read on Ashwitini then? You thought he was town because Sqrt pushed him, but that's probably changed since Sqrt flipped town. 1) Because I wasn't paying attention and felt discussing tambo's nightkill would be a good starting point for discussion for the evening, and like I said last night, I didn't want him to shoot obvtown out of paranoia and lose it for us. I don't have a better answer than that; it was a mistake. 2) I don't agree, if I think he's serial killer then lynching him isn't a waste. You're taking for granted your opinion that tambo was obviously not the sk on d1 when I very clearly didn't share that opinion. In retrospect, yes, I wish I'd recognized tambo as the vig on d1 and used d1 better, but I hardly think that it makes sense to argue that I "contradicted myself" because I came to a genuine change of heart regarding tambo and focused d2 on killing my scumreads instead of an sk read. This whole thing doesn't make sense; both hunting an sk read and hunting mafia are pro-town objectives, so what does it matter if I switch from pursuing one to pursuing another? === As for ahswtini, scum side of neutral off the top of my head, I need to read his filter again when I'm done with my econ final tomorrow. Nothing he's said has been memorable to me, I don't see him here trying to figure it out and the only reason I had for townreading him (scum!sqrt pushing him) is out the window since sqrt flipped town. Players who aren't memorable and aren't figuring things out are bad news this late in the game. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- bunnies still town I think, I want to see her posting more to figure things out; there's this vague and slight nagging feeling that she got cleared too quick and is coasting but I'm sure given the time of year that it's just finals like she's saying - I feel much better about Epishade over the past 24-48 hrs, ever since sqrt flipped he's been digging in trying to solve this thing - Meat being roleblocked over tambo doesn't make any sense to me and I think there's an appreciable chance he's mafia and the mafia didn't roleblock anyone - ahs, dfs, dravernor seem to be everyone's picks, I think I want ahs or dravernor out of that group since dfs is trying but tbh any of those three I'm fine with; only thing worrying me is that everyone is circling around them, either they're the scumteam or we've been set up - tambo still obv vig - Yell0w I'm back to being suspicious of, ever since the spotlight moved off him he hasn't really been trying to figure things out Essentially, bunnies, tambo and Epishade are in my do-not-lynch pile, everyone else is fair game right now. If we're at LYLO I like those odds since there's only one townie in that group, if we're at LYLO-1 then I'll still take 3/5 with one ML to give. tambo, if we catch a mafia today I think I want you to take a shot in that group of five (ahs, dfs, dravernor, meat, yell0w) | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Meat, convince me without appealing to an unfalsifiable roleblock claim that you're town. ##VOTE MysteryMeat1 | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 07 2014 14:33 mtamburini wrote: Donkey please. Process this, bunnies gets jailed and I get mafia roleblocked. Then Bunnies probably gets jailed again and someone else other then myself gets roleblocked (99% sure mafia roleblocked) Why would mafia roleblock mafia. Get your head in the game kid or die. Process this -- my theory is that the mafia didn't roleblock so one of their own could claim rb'd and get pseudo-confirmed at LYLO. On May 07 2014 14:39 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Eden if i was mafia I would have no reason to start talking this much. I've also justified my logic on the previous page as to why i believe i was roll blocked, but for some reason that doesn't count. So lets go back to my earlier statement that if i was mafia i wouldn't be talking. We've managed to mislynch twice now and we are in LYLO. Up until now i've been under the radar, probably lynches for today wouldn't include me because there are better lynch targets. I can see why people are hesitant to lynch epishade but i guarentee you that he is mafia. At the very least i'm willing to change my vote to DFS when you look through his filter he hasn't really participated at all, and in his last post he says that we should have lynched mtam day 1 who is guarenteed to be vigi at this point. Why would you ever want to lynch a confirmed town?!?! As for being town, i don't believe town's job is to post a ton. I wasn't very active day 1 but i've been reading the thread the whole entire time. I want to scum hunt and not witch hunt. All those people who where trying to lynch yell0w day1 cause of his claim. I see where they are coming from, but imo scum hunting is different than witch hunting. As for my reads i could say who i think the other roles are but that doesn't help town. A town's job isn't to say who they think the power roles are. I think a towns job is to post when it matters, and right now it matters. It matters sooo hard that we post and converse, but where is dfs and dravernor? I don't see them posting. The roleblock claim itself is unfalsifiable, which is why I'm not considering it in weighing your guilt or innocence. Yes you would absolutely have an incentive to talk at LYLO so that you could look more townie and move the vote onto a townie who isn't talking. I'm not saying you talking is proof you're town, that'd be ridiculous, but I am saying you talking is null. And yes, you would be -- are -- a prime candidate for today's lynch because you have been flying under the radar and not trying to solve the game state. Who was trying to lynch Yell0w d1 for a claim? And what claim? I don't understand where you're going with this "scum hunting vs witch hunting" argument since you haven't been doing either. And if your only reads, at LYLO, are town power roles instead of scum, that tells me you've only been looking for town power roles instead of scum, which tells me you're in the mafia, because if you were in the town you wouldn't even care about looking for town PRs, you'd be finding scum. Mafia look for town PRs, town look for mafia. If all you've got results for is what mafia look for, that pretty clearly only says one thing about your alignment. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Clarify for me, when you say "town roles" are you talking about finding townies or town PRs specifically? I read it as the latter, but if it's the former that changes things | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 02:39 27ninjabunnies wrote: Yeah mystery is not the kill here today. If he was actually roleblocked, we are lynching town. So fr off the table today we have me, tamburini, and mystery. So unvote him, or I vote you. I don't agree at all that meat should be off the table for the roleblock claim; his roleblock claim is unfalsifiable and I don't buy the logic explaining how it's legit. But I'm worried about the fact that meat picked up momentum like he did. His direct answers to me weren't satisfactory, but I also don't feel like they made the case against him open-and-shut, either, and I think meat's actions since then have been townie enough to warrant looking at someone else. POE thought process fmpov: - Eden town - tambo town, un-cc'd vig, granted that he hasn't proven it by his own actions yet but I'm comfortable letting it stand nonetheless because I don't think he's mafia - bunnies town, consistently been trying to figure things out from the beginning - Epishade is trying to figure things out and has been the whole phase and going back to the previous one, town - meat's started to put in some real effort to do the same, his body of work prior to today is suspect but he's still doing more to find mafia than the rest of the people to be listed - dfs's posting is sparse but when he does post he's trying to make sense of the game state - ashwtini wants meat and dfs out - dravernor has no suspects or reads posted RIP So the first thing I see is that I think we have three not four people on the scumteam. dravernor is pretty obvious and is getting my vote unless some good reads get posted fast. ashwtini I think is also pretty straightforward, and ashwtini hard-pushing meat and soft-pushing dfs makes me think meat is town and dfs is scum. But... where from there? ashwtini/dravernor/dfs makes three. I think that trio makes Epishade look bad in conjunction with the n2 kill (ritoky was really solid on Epishade being scum), and of my four solid town reads above Epishade is the lowest, but I think independent of associations Epishade looks good. Maybe ashwtini is busing both teammates? That actually does fit the profile of this mafia; when all the drivers are clear town, the passengers are usually scum, and passive mafia tend to bus for temporary town credit rather than attempt to shield teammates from lynches by pushing other lynches. In that case it's meat AND dfs, but then meat is busing all three of his teammates in his last post... ...while voting for the leftover townie. Actually, this theory makes some sense. But it's the only plausible 4-man team I can see, so if we can rule it out then we know we have a mislynch left and we're a lot better able to think strategically about the lynch. Someone tell me why it can't be meat/ahs/dravernor/dfs here, I want to be convinced and it'd take a lot of busing to be true but if we're at LYLO that's not really a point against it. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Disregard the above, need to rethink | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- Eden town - tambo town, un-cc'd vig, granted that he hasn't proven it by his own actions yet but I'm comfortable letting it stand nonetheless because I don't think he's mafia - bunnies town, consistently been trying to figure things out from the beginning - Epishade is trying to figure things out and has been the whole phase and going back to the previous one, town - meat's started to put in some real effort to do the same, his body of work prior to today is suspect but he's still doing more to find mafia than the rest of the people to be listed - dfs's posting is sparse but when he does post he's trying to make sense of the game state - ashwtini wants meat and dfs out - dravernor has no suspects or reads posted RIP - Yell0w is top-scum-reading me but won't make an effort to make a case on me, says his top scum read is just a gut feeling -- that's code for "not having a scum read" in my book That makes a lot more sense to me, none of the bottom three are associating with one another in any significant way, only one of them (ashwtini) has made anything resembling a serious effort to get one of their nominal suspects lynched. Of them dravernor's got the most traction, I'll take that today. As for a possible fourth, again, ashwtini implicates dfs, but I think just those three at the bottom is most likely. I'll worry about dfs if we kill the bottom three and the game isn't over yet. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: dravernor | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 03:56 Yell0w wrote: Wait, what? You think me, dravernor and ahs are all mafia? Didn't I just vote against Dravernor? It's stuff like this that makes me think you're mafia leading town astray. You pushed tamburini day 1, arguing he wasn't mafia or vigi, when maybe you did think he was vigi and wanted to kill him, then you pushed sqrt day 2, who was town. Then you voted for meat, people followed you, now your new reads don't make much sense, but it seems likely we will lynch dravernor if nobody says anything and you don't change your vote, because people follow you, I'm not sure why. So I'm going to change my vote, people can follow me or not, I think you're scum and it's the second time you put me as scum, both times right after I said I thought you were suspicious, and then when I say I think you're town, you think I'm town too, now THAT's suspicious. ##UNVOTE ##Vote: Eden1892 So what if you did? All that does for me is increase my suspicion that we're at LYLO. If you are mafia, you killing a teammate doesn't bring you any closer to defeat; you still only need to force one mislynch. If that's a case against me in the first paragraph, I don't understand it. Sounds like you're saying that because I've been trying to get my scum (or in d1 tambo's case anti-town) reads lynched, I'm mafia. Which doesn't make sense at all. The second paragraph is hella amusing because I was on you before you did anything of note against me d1 and I forgot about you in my initial list of reads from today. If there's one thing that doesn't point to it's "I care about what Yell0w thinks about me." And then in the same post where you vote for me after I call you suspicious, when previously you said it wasn't worth going after me today, you say that I'm suspicious because I'm reacting to you. If anyone's reacting to anyone else here, you're reacting to me. Yell0w is obviously mafia here y'all, I think I've got our scumteam with dravernor/ashwtini/Yell0w. He's clearly alarmed by the fact that I went from not seriously calling attention to any of them on d2 and thus far in d3 to coming out against all three of them, which is informing his change of heart from "Eden is maybe suspicious but not really worth my time" to "die die die die die." | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 04:41 ahswtini wrote: Mafia yellow makes no sense, why wouldn't they roleblock mtamburini again to keep yellow alive, instead of throwing it seemingly randomly at meat? If you're going to say yellow is mafia, you should throw mtamburini in there too because although ridiculous, that's the only scenario that makes sense. The fact that you've got two people who I'm sure are town in your list means you're either completely on the wrong track, or you're pushing hard for a mislynch. I assume they read meat as a power role. I don't know why they did, I don't see it and I think roleblocking meat gave someone who potentially could have been mislynched credibility (see bunnies' insistence on not killing meat today). But that's the only reason meat would get roleblocked in the first place, so it stands to reason that they feared meat's hypothetical role more than tambo's actual role. Maybe they thought tambo was going to shoot someone besides Yell0w? He didn't give any indication that he was shooting Yell0w that night. I don't understand your last comment though. Presumably you're one of the two people you're sure are town. If the other is Yell0w, which your post implies, why are you saying I'm pushing for a mislynch when I'm voting for dravernor? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 05:04 Yell0w wrote: So that clearly doesn't make sense, it definitely puts me further from victory, why wouldn't I just take the easy win and lynch meat when he already had 3 votes if I'm mafia with drav and ahs? You've been actively leading town in the wrong direction, because you've been only targeting towns. I don't see how that doesn't make you suspicious. No, you didn't say anything against me at the beginning when bunnies was on me, then I said I thought you were the most suspicious and then you arrive and make a huge case against me, you're clearly remembering wrong. And the argument isn't that you care what I think about you, it's that you care what people in general think about you and you just want to lynch them for thinking you're suspicious, which isn't at all what you should be doing if you're town, but it is exactly what you should do as mafia. And yes I'm reacting to you acting scummy, what's wrong with that? You say this and yet, with the deciding vote in your hand now, you sit on a third party. That speaks volumes about your actual intentions. You put a vote down for dravernor earlier when it didn't matter, leaving yourself an out to vote for me if the tide started to turn. Sure enough, as it does start to turn, you move onto me. Why are you so indecisive about killing dravernor now? How do you know I've only been targeting towns? How do you know dravernor's alignment, or meat's or tambo's? I've only spearheaded one mislynch (sqrt) and I made a case very openly for it. Where were you that day? Oh right, camping on tambo, whose towniness you've apparently accepted so thoroughly that now my pushing on him day 1 is a point against me. I've made all my cases very clear this game. You're playing like a complete coward: hiding on outliers, refusing to make your vote count, not spelling out your reasoning, and then sniping today like an archer in a tower, deriding people for guessing wrong while being too afraid to even answer the question yourself. I'm not afraid of being wrong -- it's unfortunate and we'd all rather be right, but especially in a game where you start out in a state of ignorance, failure is the first step toward eventual success. Why are you so afraid of being wrong? Where am I trying to lynch people who are suspicious of me? sqrt yes, but if you look at my actual case (do this, btw; you clearly haven't) it has nothing to do with his interaction on me. tambo, who was townreading me? dravernor, who's townreading me? Or look at the nightkills. Amiko townread me by the end of n1. ritoky was strong townreading me. The people who are dying are by and large people who are townreading me, and here you come out of the woodwork at LYLO with this weak case against me, and we're supposed to believe that I'm the mafia setting you up instead of the reverse? Please. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 05:38 MysteryMeat1 wrote: yellow, eden is just confused town.. dfs epi ahs drav are all mafia, i guarentee it. DFS or epi is the role blocker for mafia, i'm leaning very heavily towards dfs, but epi is probably to. Drav is just gonna come up plain mafia I don't think he is, but as long as we're killing dravernor today I'll leave burying him for tomorrow. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 05:49 Yell0w wrote: @Eden The person I think is the most scummy voted against both of those people today, that's you by the way, so yes I'm going to vote for a third party because I don't want to lynch a town like you do. There was sqrt, there was me, everyone seems to think tamburini is town, that's three town targeted by you, it's starting to be a pattern. And I think I've been vocal about you being scummy, so you say I'm mafia, sqrt and epishade are others who thought you were suspicious and you said they were both scummy, that's another pattern. But yes you found yourself in a very good situation where you didn't have to kill people who thought you were scummy, because most people thought you were town. Instead of dodging my question with a spin suited for a washing machine how about you answer it and tell me why you're not voting your scumread dravernor when there's a tie for the lead? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 06:06 Yell0w wrote: Well, okay, since clearly nobody is going to vote with me on Eden, I'd be more willing to lynch dfs than meat or dravernor, so I'm gonna vote for him, and maybe since others think he's suspicious we can get the ball rolling. ##Unvote ##Vote: dfs @Eden I answered your question, you're mafia, you want to kill town, you lead a vote against dravernor, therefore she's town, how do you not understand that is beyond me. If any of you leave dravernor to vote with this clear scum I will end you. Don't fall for this. Yell0w/ahswtini/dravernor scumteam for sure. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 06:13 Yell0w wrote: Well thanks for making it clear that you and dfs are both mafia. Says the guy trying to do everything in his power to deflect from dravernor! Please. You didn't even make a case for dfs! You're just sheeping people's prior suspicions of him. Fuck that, you're mafia, dfs is town, dravernor's mafia, this is obvious and I swear to god if we don't lynch dravernor today heads are gonna roll. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 06:26 Yell0w wrote: That doesn't make sense, how is me defending someone I think isn't mafia indicative that I'm mafia? You didn't say anything against me except that I think you're scum and that I'm defending dravernor, that is your case against me. And if I was doing everything I could do protect dravernor, why didn't I just vote meat? And now you defend dfs hardcore, but I'm the mafia for defending somebody. I have no idea how people can't see you're mafia, what you're saying is making no sense, yet you're sticking with it. I think literally the exact same thing about you, I can't make any sense of what you're trying to say that isn't scum-motivated. You keep interpreting selective parts about my play to be a reaction to you without context, when in context it's obviously got nothing to do with you, then you accuse me of being scum because my actions are in reaction to yours, then you spend the rest of the day dutifully moving your vote with no common thread except "Eden isn't voting for/suspecting him." You obviously suspect me the most, why aren't you even trying to make a coherent case against me? Why instead are you fishing for anyone I'm not suspecting/voting for that others will also vote for? That's not how you find mafia, that's how you mislynch people. Where is your case against dfs? Why didn't you make the case after I called you out for not making one? Why aren't you actually trying to persuade people to vote for dfs? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 06:54 Yell0w wrote: And clearly you are bad at reading people since you made 4 votes, 3 of them were town and one is yet to be determined. Though you might be mafia and you're actually really good at reading people, if so I apologize. Fuck this so much, if he doesn't get vig'd tonight (and he SHOULD) then I'm bringing him down tomorrow. Zero tolerance for people who sit in the back and snipe at those who are trying to get shit done while refusing to try to get shit done themselves. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 07:02 mtamburini wrote: Lack of effort by me to im disappointed in myself. DIDNT EVEN GET TOO SHOOT MY GUN Shoot Yell0w tonight | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 10:32 mtamburini wrote: Can i just shoot you for telling me what to do But that means you're not shooting Yell0w, which is bad | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
You shouldn't shoot me because I've done arguably the most of anyone in the game to find mafia and figure out what's going on. Epishade is the only other person still alive that I'd consider as my equal in that respect. Mafia obviously don't especially care to figure out the game state and they aim to fit in with the town's degree of figuring things out, not to rise above it or fall below it. I've also on a couple of occasions argued for my lynch candidate over the opposing wagon when mafia would either have no special incentive to do so (see day 1 when two townies were up for a lynch) or would have an incentive not to do so (see day 3 when my switch to dravernor and subsequent arguing for her lynch got her killed when I could have stayed on mysterymeat and probably gotten him killed instead). Finally and tied to the previous point, I drove the wagon on the only scum we've caught. You should shoot Yell0w because his play has been cowardly, which is a mafia trait. He's been very reactive; he only gets involved when someone else is accusing him or voting for him, he doesn't push for his candidate to get killed and he hasn't shown any initiative in trying to find mafia. He's the only player who has never voted for a player who's flipped yet, which is a huge black mark in my book because it betrays a reticence to be on the record. Town don't have a particular motive to be on the record, but scum have a powerful incentive NOT to be on the record, as the fewer the number of confirmed players they've weighed in on, the more flexible they can be in their search for a lynch. Furthermore, the reason he's been off the record so far is that he keeps parking his vote on outlying candidates (dfs last night, mtamburini d2). People who are consistently on outliers, like Yell0w is, and who aren't arguing for their candidate strongly and making cases for them, like Yell0w hasn't, are more likely to be scum, because again, they don't want to be on the record. It's forgivable to be off the record if you're pushing your cases hard and simply not convincing people. It's not forgivable to be off the record and not making an effort to get on the record by getting your preferred candidate lynched. Yell0w is in the latter category, and it's time to stop forgiving him. My second choice is ahswtini because I don't feel his votes have matched up with his story. The main thing I'm noticing is that while he voted to kill dravernor late, the whole time he was arguing for meat and dfs to be killed. dfs would have been a viable third wagon if he had switched, but he didn't. meat was a viable second wagon until the end, and ahswtini wasn't on it at all. I don't understand why he would name two other players as his main suspects and then vote for dravernor instead. But my issue is that I don't understand it as either alignment. As town, why is he on someone he doesn't name as his 1st or 2nd suspect, when both of them were viable counterwagons? As mafia, why did he kill his teammate instead of sticking with his story and trying to kill one of the others? I guess it's possible ahs/meat/dfs/drav was the scumteam, but I don't buy that at all. ahs is also the least townie of the non-Yell0w others in the game; I think Eden/Epishade/bunnies are all obvtown at this point, meat's probably town, and dfs is probably town because Yell0w was pushing him so hard over drav. So by POE if you don't kill Yell0w I'd rather ahs over the rest. But I really want Yell0w. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 09 2014 07:00 iamperfection wrote: Day 4 mtamburini the Helix Worshiper is dead. You have 48 hours good players | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 09 2014 07:22 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Its pretty dangerous to assume there is only 3 mafia. And i dont' mind mtam's ploy. He survives a lynch, and gets roleblocked. Pretty good for a vanilla town. I like how you say dfs is indefensible when i'm the one who brought up that dfs was mafia, and i've pushed the hardest for him since the very begining. Throwing someone under the bus, when i have absolutely nothing to gain? no this was objectively a pretty terrible play, he derailed the d1 lynch because his claim didn't make sense and I and others assumed he was sk for it and if the numbers hadn't worked out right for him to give him an excuse not to shoot n2, he'd have probably been mislynched for holding his shot not worth worrying about atm though. what is is that we have seven players left: Eden bunnies Epishade dfs meat ahswtini Yell0w and 2-3 scum | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE Yell0w | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 09 2014 12:08 MysteryMeat1 wrote: well for now confirmed town would be bunnies me yell0w fenced epi eden scum dfs ahs How is Yell0w even close to confirmed town? This hasn't and doesn't make sense to me at all. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 11:11 Eden1892 wrote: You should shoot Yell0w because his play has been cowardly, which is a mafia trait. He's been very reactive; he only gets involved when someone else is accusing him or voting for him, he doesn't push for his candidate to get killed and he hasn't shown any initiative in trying to find mafia. He's the only player who has never voted for a player who's flipped yet, which is a huge black mark in my book because it betrays a reticence to be on the record. Town don't have a particular motive to be on the record, but scum have a powerful incentive NOT to be on the record, as the fewer the number of confirmed players they've weighed in on, the more flexible they can be in their search for a lynch. Furthermore, the reason he's been off the record so far is that he keeps parking his vote on outlying candidates (dfs last night, mtamburini d2). People who are consistently on outliers, like Yell0w is, and who aren't arguing for their candidate strongly and making cases for them, like Yell0w hasn't, are more likely to be scum, because again, they don't want to be on the record. It's forgivable to be off the record if you're pushing your cases hard and simply not convincing people. It's not forgivable to be off the record and not making an effort to get on the record by getting your preferred candidate lynched. Yell0w is in the latter category, and it's time to stop forgiving him. My second choice is ahswtini because I don't feel his votes have matched up with his story. The main thing I'm noticing is that while he voted to kill dravernor late, the whole time he was arguing for meat and dfs to be killed. dfs would have been a viable third wagon if he had switched, but he didn't. meat was a viable second wagon until the end, and ahswtini wasn't on it at all. I don't understand why he would name two other players as his main suspects and then vote for dravernor instead. But my issue is that I don't understand it as either alignment. As town, why is he on someone he doesn't name as his 1st or 2nd suspect, when both of them were viable counterwagons? As mafia, why did he kill his teammate instead of sticking with his story and trying to kill one of the others? I guess it's possible ahs/meat/dfs/drav was the scumteam, but I don't buy that at all. ahs is also the least townie of the non-Yell0w others in the game; I think Eden/Epishade/bunnies are all obvtown at this point, meat's probably town, and dfs is probably town because Yell0w was pushing him so hard over drav. So by POE if you don't kill Yell0w I'd rather ahs over the rest. But I really want Yell0w. OK, I want people to talk to me about both of these reads. No one seems to have an opinion on Yell0w besides meat, who sees him as super town for some reason I don't understand. Lots of people seem to share a scumread on ahswtini. Can we kill one of these two today? I'm nearly positive both are mafia. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 10 2014 03:31 MysteryMeat1 wrote: @Eden. Everyone thought that mtamb was vigi. Why would mafia choose to roll block me when they could roll block a "vigi". The reason they didn't was because he was going to shoot yell0w. No one knew or really believed he couldn't shoot yell0w. They choose to kill ritoky and use their roleblock on me. I know my roleblock claims are "unfalsifiable" but we are not lynching yell0w today or tomorrow. dfs i'm 100% convinced is mafia 80% on ahs 60% your mafia - just cause your reads aren't useful 40% on epishade. He chose not to shoot that night because he was worried about losing the game for us. The mafia could easily have predicted this and chose to roleblock someone they thought was a power role. It's weird to me that you're not even considering this possibility. Weird, as opposed to scummy, because you're probably town in my book, but it's starting to make me wonder since you're so insistent that I'm wrong, claiming my "reads aren't useful," and the like, but you're not doing the slightest thing to try to persuade me of this. It's like you're content to see me be wrong about it and I don't understand why that would be. On May 10 2014 03:33 MysteryMeat1 wrote: There is also probably a reason that parity cop hasnt come out, and i think you should think about that eden I think I have a pretty good idea, but in case the mafia don't I'm not going to say anything. Why do you want me talking about this instead of finding scum, though? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 10 2014 11:39 Yell0w wrote: You're really going to go with that theory that I'm mafia and predicted tamburini wouldn't shoot me despite being on my case all game prior to that moment? Do you think restating my argument back to me in the form of a skeptical question is going to dissuade me? Yes, I think so. If he's wrong then he loses the game, plain and simple. It's entirely reasonable to predict that the mafia would predict he wouldn't shoot as a result and would choose not to roleblock him. Look at the consequences of it, meat is clearing you 100% and no one but me seems willing to lynch you as a result. It's a risky play but it's not at all unreasonable. Your handwaving dismissal is doing a lot to confirm its truth to me. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Considering who's voting for dfs, I see Yell0w on the wagon and I'm immediately suspicious of it. I think I like everyone else on it but it got started by my top scum read and I'm not independently convinced dfs is scum so I'm having a real hard time voting for it. Someone post the case on dfs and tell me why he's a better pick than ahswtini here. Reads: Epishade moved ahead of bunnies as my top town read, he's been working harder than her over the past few days bunnies is probably still town, I've already expressed my issues with her sorta coasting to today; it's not enough to make me suspicious though, just annoyed; posts still seem pretty genuine meat has been trending up like Epishade has, still in my town group here dfs hasn't worked as hard as the townies above, don't think anything has stood out as really suspicious either; I would lynch him if I couldn't get ahswtini or Yell0w, definitely ahead of my top four, but definitely below my bottom two ahswtini and Yell0w I'm still pretty sure are both scum, see my night post for details | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
You guys can't seriously be okay with this, right? Everyone suspects ahswtini at this point, he's hopping on the dfs lynch without a care in the world. Everybody's writing off Yell0w because they assume the mafia wasn't capable of assuming tambo wouldn't fire his gun, even though we explicitly discussed this exact possibility the night they would have had to roleblock. Now we're supposed to assume the mafia isn't capable of even raising a viable counterlynch to scum!dfs, that they're just going to lie down and let us have him? No way. This can't be right. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 10 2014 21:33 ahswtini wrote: Which is exactly what I'm saying. Any way I vote makes me look scummy. If I don't vote dfs, I'm making some outlier vote and don't want to vote for my scum buddy. If I do vote dfs, I'm jumping on an easy bandwagon. Fuck this, I'm unvoting and voting bunnies instead. At this stage it's not even going to matter, because one of dfs or myself is getting lynched, bunnies will never get lynched, my vote on dfs is not going to make a difference. How willing are you to vote Yell0w then? And what's your case on bunnies? | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE dfs | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Pretty sure Epishade is town. Bunnies also still seems town. Yell0w isn't even trying to find the mafia, ahs is at least making a token effort. Will switch to ahswtini if needed to prevent vote-splitting but I'm not willing to vote myself, Epishade or bunnies. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
as noted earlier ahs is at least making some effort to solve game, yellow isn't, see night post for tambo for deets posting from phone please excuse brevity and lack of links | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- I went back and looked at the dfs lynch. The only outlier at day's end aside from dfs himself was ahswtini voting for 27ninjabunnies. Check the votes today, and ahswtini, with a far better chance of getting bunnies lynched... is voting for me, and not commenting on bunnies at all. Please. - Aside from that, and assuming there is another mafia teammate out there, we know dfs's teammates bailed on him. Thus, what we should not be looking at is when people voted for dfs, but why. People who either built a decent case on dfs, or voted dfs after asking him some questions and trying to discern his alignment, or otherwise showed clear deliberation about the dfs lynch, are town. People who just parked a vote on dfs and peaced out are scum selling out their teammates. Here's a breakdown of everyone's thoughts on dfs last turn correlating to their vote: Yell0w: Parks vote on dfs, only posts one more time in the thread to whine at me for finding him suspicious. He claims to have "already made a case on dfs," but I can only find posts here and here that even approach the level of "making a case," and in neither instance do they satisfy my understanding of what a case should be. The first post is "well no one will go on my REAL scumread, and I really don't want to lynch dravernor [editor's note: who was scum], so I'll vote for dfs instead." That's not a case. The second post is a decent point about the shady interactions between dravernor and dfs, but not exactly what I'd call a "case." Recall that at the time we only knew dravernor was scum, and dravernor didn't have significant interactions with anyone. If I were in Yell0w's shoes looking at the same data, I would be asking more questions or at least listening to others' posts on the matter; hell, Yell0w himself is incriminated by the same logic, since dravernor didn't significantly interact with anybody and Yell0w didn't significantly interact with dravernor except to do anything in his power not to vote for dravernor the day she was lynched. There's a pretty good case for Yell0w busing dfs for credit here, because he made an appeal to a by-no-means conclusive case against dfs and bailed on the thread for the day after that. bunnies: More or less just followed Epishade's case onto dfs here. Also fits the bill for "busing teammate," though she stuck around afterward to talk to people and further develop her reads. Of the two I think it's obvious that Yell0w is the more likely scum candidate. Epishade: Makes his case here. Self-explanatory, this is clearly the result of reasoned, deliberate detective work, not a bus. Eden: Finally votes for dfs here after looking for reasons not to vote dfs here. If dfs was deliberately bused for town credit, this ain't it. Eden has no reason to do this, having already spearheaded the dravernor lynch, and being on the tail end of a scum lynch doesn't get you town credit anyway. I don't think this makes Eden more town, just that it makes him an invalid candidate for the whole "dfs's teammates sold him downriver" idea. So the plausible candidates for a fourth mafia, to ahs's third, based on last turn are Yell0w or, less likely but still possible, bunnies. I think it's obviously Yell0w of those two. - Yell0w's arguments against me are manipulative and wrong: 1) He says he wants to kill me because meat said so. He's ignoring -- and hoping you'll all ignore with him -- the fact that meat said to kill ahswtini first, and that ahswtini is voting for me and was voting for me when Yell0w put his vote down. This is the main thing that's driving me to think that Yell0w and ahswtini are partners and that we have four mafia. If Yell0w were really following meat's reads like he's insinuating he is, why isn't he going in the order that meat said? The obvious answer is that it's LYLO, he and ahs are teammates and he knows that he can win it this turn by getting me killed instead of his teammate. And if he's really town following meat's reads, why isn't he really skeptical about the fact that meat's top scumread is voting for me? 2) He says I'm "not even trying anymore to give reasons to lynching [him]" and then goes on to name the reason I voted to lynch him. Please. He's acting like "not trying to find the mafia" isn't a valid reason to kill someone at LYLO. It's completely valid, I've made the case nearly a week ago now for that and he still hasn't found the time to rebut it satisfactorily. He says he's not mafia because he lead the vote on dfs, when that's demonstrably not true; I've covered this earlier in this post. Most damning to me is the line after that: "I know I didn't post much yesterday, but dfs was mafia and he was getting killed, there was nothing else to say." You're kidding me, right? There's at least one mafia and very likely two mafia still out there, and this guy says there was nothing else to say. This proves to me that Yell0w was just busing dfs for credit. If he were actually town and sure about dfs getting lynched, he would spend the remaining time trying to find the other teammate(s) hiding out. 3) He says I just voted dfs because I didn't have a better target. Yup, after a lot of thinking about the game and finding myself unable to convince people to vote for my main suspects -- and I certainly tried; I thought the fact that the people everyone was scumreading just piled onto dfs was sketch and I pointed it out, no one responded to it -- I went on dfs over bunnies. I think that was an obvious choice regardless of my alignment. I'm not going to argue this makes me more townie, only that it's manipulative to say it makes me scummy. It's null. The choice was too clear no matter what. 4) He says I bused dravernor for town credit. Again, please. Where's the proof of this? Epishade's already addressed this point pretty well I think, you'd have to argue that dravernor was playing her entire game from D1 just to set herself up for me to bus her on D3 because we were scumreading each other the whole game. That argument that can only come from trying to make a retroactive justification for a conclusion you've already adopted. Any honest assessment of my interactions with dravernor and dfs has to conclude I'm obviously town. tl;dr: read it If I move off Yell0w, I'm only moving off of Yell0w to prevent vote-splitting. I'm the current lynch target which means all three of Epishade/bunnies/me need to unite our votes. If bunnies and Epishade won't vote Yell0w but will vote ahswtini, I'll move to ahswtini, because I think Yell0w and ahswtini are scum. If they won't vote either, we lose anyway. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I think the mafia team are clearly ahswtini and Yell0w. I don't think Epishade wants Yell0w today, so in order to make this work... ##UNVOTE ##VOTE ahswtini | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 13 2014 12:23 27ninjabunnies wrote: Why would there be four mafia left? We have lynched 2. Lol, oops I meant there were four total mafia as opposed to three (which is the only other number that fits the setup). Meaning there are two left like you said and we're at LYLO. ahs is content with that because the mafia need one more ML which means they only need one townie to be wrong. Those are good odds for the mafia. Town!ahs I think would show a lot more urgency and would either continue pushing the bunnies case or explain the sudden drop. scum!ahs doesn't care because if you or me or Epishade gets it wrong, or even if we're all right and voting for mafia but not all on the same target, they win. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
What was your case on bunnies in the first place and how could you so easily have abandoned it? What changed? You keep speaking in generalities. I'm speaking in very concrete specifics. You've been speaking in generalities the whole way because it's allowed you to be flexible with who you scumread and townread, because you're afraid of being pinned to a specific position and forced to defend it, because you're scum. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
So because all of us have been townie I decided to look at our caught mafia's reads to see if I got anything. Let me know if you need specific links for reference to any of my claims here. === Evolution of dravernor's reads on the three of us, plus her partner dfs DAY 1 - Epishade and bunnies are top two scum, but more likely Epishade - Eden looks scummy for throwing votes around - bunnies is top town read due to tonal changes, Epishade still most likely scum, on fence about Eden - votes Epishade DAY 2 - Epishade still top scum read, "paranoid" about how town bunnies is being, no read about Eden - Epishade STILL top scum read, on fence about bunnies and Eden, dfs probably town DAY 3 - bunnies is town, Epishade is STILL SCUM, Eden maybe scum, dfs town - Guess what she said about Epishade, still seems to like bunnies but thinks she's being weird, still looking at me funny for moving vote around, dfs still town but hard to read CONCLUSION: Occam's Razor says it's bunnies, her treatment of bunnies is eerily parallel to her treatment of dfs and her treatment of Epishade is like her treatment of me, but more blatant. She wasn't setting me up to bus her from Day One and she DEFINITELY wasn't setting up Epishade for it. === Evolution of dfs's reads on the three of us, plus his partner dravernor DAY 1 - says everyone is on scum list until proven otherwise but implies bunnies has proven otherwise - bunnies makes the most sense, all three of us are the thread's "Big 3" - bunnies most town person, no reads given on me, Epishade or dravernor - no comment on bunnies or Epishade, says me and dravernor are null DAY 2 - names Epishade as suspect, no comment on bunnies, dravernor or me DAY 3 - bunnies is town DAY 4 [...] CONCLUSION: The only thing to take away is a townread on bunnies. Treatment of dravernor is nonexistent, treatment of me and Epishade is largely nonexistent too, just some suspicion thrown at us here and there. === I think based on this, Epishade is almost certainly town. I don't see how scum!dravernor could think it a good play to keep harping on scum!Epishade with her relatively sparse posts throughout the first few days. She has to know she wouldn't get any credit for it if Epishade were lynched/shot and flipped scum. The more reasonable explanation is that she was hoping for Epishade to get lynched as town. dfs is a cypher but what little we have points more toward Epishade being town than bunnies imo. As individuals I think all three of us have been pretty townie the whole game, which is why I went to what our known mafia players said about each of us. That data points most clearly to bunnies. I'm also a little leery of bunnies asking us both for cases, like she's confirmed town and we have to convince her we're innocent. Acknowledging that this might be confirmation bias because I already think she's the last mafia, this still doesn't sit well with me. It seems like she's wanting Epishade and me to make cases for her so that she can justify whichever vote she ends up making. Epishade responded with strong casework which I don't see a mafia player feeling the need to do. ##VOTE 27ninjabunnies | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: So, Eden, I'm glad you brought up the reads that dfs and dravernor typed over their days here, and I was actually going to use them on my case against you. So for dravernor, he put high suspicion on me and Epishade for most of his reads, but then you just get fenced the entire time. You were pretty much avoided in both Dravernor's and Dfs reads,, and I feel as that is usually a mafia play to ignore one of their partners completely. That's wrong. dravernor listed you and Epishade really early in D1 as top scum reads, but then did a strange 180 on you based on what I could best determine to be a change in your tone(?) and listed you as top town. From there she kept waffling between "on the fence about bunnies" and "bunnies is town," in parallel with her read on dfs; from Day 2 onward anytime she townread dfs she townread you and anytime she was on the fence about dfs she was on the fence about you as well. Looking at the profile of this mafia so far, clearly the last mafia is one of the more talkative players, someone who's been very involved and active with the town. It's hard for me to believe that the more quiet mafia players wouldn't townread their active talker to give that talker more support. And while it's true dfs didn't talk much about me, where dfs did talk about me he mainly focused on picking at what I was saying and subtly discrediting some of my pushes (calling them "weird" or "hard to read"). This doesn't fit the profile of a quiet mafia player supporting his active partner's efforts to steer town conversation in a given direction. He didn't do the same thing to you. On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: As for me asking cases on both of you, I want to see if there is any connection you place between yourself and the mafia we have lynched. I find it odd that Eden basically bws the vote on me after epishade thinks its most likely me. That's pretty easy. Epishade is obviously town because dravernor and dfs kept insisting he was mafia all the time. There's no way the mafia just openly discredit their frontman so frequently and consistently. So Epishade is definitely town. Then you can make a reasonable case against both of us because dravernor and dfs weren't super-committal in their positions on either of us, but I come out a decent but not incredible amount ahead because dravernor and dfs spent a lot of time subtly discrediting me and townreading/supporting you. Again, mafia don't openly discredit their frontman, and they tend to avoid subtly throwing doubt on the frontman, too. It's easy once the frontman is lynched just to go "Oops, he seemed town, I misread him" and move on. There's plenty of scum-sided motivation to townread the frontman, very little to discredit the frontman whether openly or subtly. That doesn't really address my concern though. You even called me out for "bandwagoning" you (which clearly isn't the case, I laid out my logic and it's distinct from Epishade's), but you haven't made a substantial argument either way yet. Every response that goes by without your own casework solidifies in my mind the idea that you're the last mafia and you're trying to feel out both of us by getting us to write cases before you decide who you want to try to kill. On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: I would also like to point out some of the votes. I basically led the lynch on dravernor. Also, Eden and Epishade both voted for dravernor and dfs (though it took more time for Eden to vote on either than it did Epishade). This is also false. You were the first vote on dravernor out of us, sure, but I did more to get dravernor lynched than you did for sure. I called out Yell0w for trying to get an alternate wagon going and was pretty vocal about pushing people to stay on the dravernor lynch. I was more hesitant to kill dfs, but I stand by my argument at the time -- if both of my major scumreads at the time were happily lining up to kill dfs, of course I wasn't going to kill dfs if I could avoid it. In the end I killed dfs though. On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: Also, I don't think it's Epishade here (which I'll explain more in my later post). When the vote was being led on Dravernor, Epishade was voting for dfs. If Epishade was mafia here, I think he would try to vote on someone outside of his partners, not bus both of them, so therefore my top case will most likely be on Eden. You say this, but all three of us voted for mafia on both turns mafia died. I don't think this is a great point for or against anyone. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 16 2014 05:52 27ninjabunnies wrote: So looking at votes, dravernor also voted for epishade, and never voted for Eden. Possible mafia protecting mafia partner? Also, I was first to go on dravernor, while Eden went on Meat, who seemed pretty town. But then again, Epishade voted meat after Eden went on Meat. Eden also didnt vote dfs until the last second, but epishade voted before. That first point is such a laughable reach. dravernor never went on you, either. We already talked about the order of the lynch, you're piggybacking town!Yell0w's wrong point from the previous cycle. It doesn't matter when you got on board a lynch, it matters how hard you pushed for that lynch. I pushed it harder than you. To say you parked your vote on dravernor and left would be overstating it, but not by a lot; I'm not surprised at all that you're taking this angle, it's reeking of "See, I look good!" Not buying it. On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote: So, after reading through the filter of Eden, I actually like him. and that's scary. And I was gonna say this:Even though you are from Louisiana, sorry bud, but you are mafia. And here is why.- but I can't find any good reasons for why he is mafia. On May 16 2014 05:54 27ninjabunnies wrote: Also, I think yell0w died in the night over me because he was pushing on eden over epishade, and I wasnt sure between epishade and eden who it was. My read has changed. ##Unvote ##Vote: Eden That didn't take very long. I'm not convinced you're actually trying to find the last mafia from this display. I'd expect you to be worried about dying regardless of your alignment, but if you really were town I'd expect better effort than this. All I'm getting out of this is that you're desperate not to die, not that you're genuinely scumhunting. On May 16 2014 07:11 27ninjabunnies wrote: That's where you are wrong. Dravernor read me as scum, so you have no substantial evidence on me. Your biggest thing on me is that I began posting less. I've already stated reasons for that. And just because I didn't get shot, doesnt mean anything. Jailkeeper was on me 2 nights in a row, which I was impossible to get shot then, therefore mafia placed their shots elsewhere. As for the other nights, I'm not sure why they didn't kill me. I don't know, because I AM NOT MAFIA. The fact that mafia is pushing on me now, is because they think im an easy ml. IM NOT SO GET OFF OF ME. I believe there is benefit talking in the night, as I stated before. You can get reads off of people who are likely to die in the night. This is super beneficial for town. The only thing I see here is that eden was all like, "Yeah me too, I'm not gonna say anything in the night either." I don't see how that is beneficial to finding mafia. And your reasons on Eden are pointless as well. I honestly think you and Eden are both just pulling nothing out of a magical hat that doesn't even work. I AM TOWN, you need to reconsider this before you let mafia win. This is ridiculous. This first part is factually incorrect, dravernor didn't scumread you beyond the halfway point of D1. Meanwhile she scumread Epishade the whole game and kept fence-sitting about me in her hard reads while softly accusing me or otherwise casting doubt on me with her other posts. I don't know where that quote comes from, but I never said that. I talked plenty during the nights in this game, I just held back during the last night phase because I wanted to avoid WIFOM circlejerks. This is a pretty straightforward solution. I'm remotely concerned that I'm still alive here because I've been wrongly townreading Epishade, but here at LYLO he's done nothing to make me think he isn't town. bunnies OTOH has, in my mind, freaked out wildly disproportionately to the actual danger she's facing. There's a full day left to go. Unless she's not planning on being around I don't understand the desperation from a town standpoint. Her reaction is pretty strongly making me think we've got our final mafia in the bag here. I don't see my vote moving at this rate. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 16 2014 08:40 Epishade wrote: I disagree with Eden about Bunny freaking out disproportionately. I don't think that indicates a caught mafia. She has a right to be freaked out about being lynched, but mafia or town regardless would (or rather, should) have the same reaction. If anything that just means she's passionate about the game. I wouldn't indicate that as a particular alignment trait. I'd agree if we were an hour or two away from the lynch. We still have a day. The meltdown seems really premature. I'm not convinced it's alignment-neutral so far away from the lynch, seems like a townie would stay calm and try to make a more compelling case against her scum read. Currently her vote is on me because Yell0w suspected me (WIFOM), in direct contradiction to a big post she made explaining why she thinks I'm more town than you. This doesn't read like the logical, collected bunnies we've seen in this game to me. On May 16 2014 08:49 Epishade wrote: Ok, question for Eden though about asking about Parity cop. Erm, why would you have believed either of us claiming it if we had? Wouldn't that just mean you don't really care which one of us gets lynched? Say Bunny said that she was cop. Does that mean you'd believe her and just vote for me? I don't mean that if she just threw out there that she was the parity cop I'd go "okay, I believe this 100%, lynch Epishade gg." She'd have to show how she breadcrumbed her scans, acted in accordance with her scan data, etc. But if the claim generally checked out then yes, even despite how innocent you've seemed this game, I'd have voted to kill you. Think of it as me asking for roleclaims at LYLO (which where I'm from is standard operating procedure if people haven't claimed yet). I just focused on the parity cop 'cause again, with a godfather and miller in the game it's reasonable to expect there to be one. Moot point anyway since no one claimed a PR. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- First post D1, scumreads Epishade and bunnies. - Later on D1, scumreads me for moving votes around. - Later on D1, bunnies flips to top townread. Epishade still scummy. Indecisive about me. - Votes Epishade. Last D1 post. - Epishade top scum read, no comment of note on me, has bunnies as "so town" that she's worried about it being genuine. - Epishade still top scum read, fence-sitting about me and bunnies - Guess what she said about Epishade lol. she's off the fence about bunnies, calling bunnies town. Thinks I might be scum - Boner for Epishade confirmed, still thinks bunnies is town, still thinks I'm bad All of these back up my initial analysis at the top of p67. The conclusion -- that bunnies is mafia -- remains. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 16 2014 09:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, the reason why I said the yell0w thing is because of this. I had no idea which one of you it is, but yell0w was my top town read. If you were town, Eden, and yell0w pointed you out as his number one scum, epishade would have kept yellow alive, because he knew he would go on you, and therefore he could pass off as town, and get you ml. However, yell0w died, which points to you being mafia anyway. Also, tbh, I forgotten days are 48 hours and not 24 hours until someone pointed it out, so you may think that my defense is too defensive for right now, but I told you why I am getting defensive. Because i am town, and we need to find the actual mafia here. Yell0w dying doesn't point to anything concrete about who's mafia. This is just idle speculation. How would the final mafia know that Yell0w and I would stick on each other? It'd be a huge gamble to assume that we couldn't step back and rethink things. I think Yell0w got shot because no one was willing to lynch him for several days leading up to this final day. At LYLO you want to keep the lynchable people around to maximize your options. Beyond that it's just speculation. On May 16 2014 09:19 27ninjabunnies wrote: This doesnt point to me being mafia. This just points to that if I died in the night and flipped town, dravernor might have some credibility and not get lynched. Notice how he said "thinks" the entire time, but never had a legit scum read on you. She basically ignored you AND dfs in her reads. I already explained how it does on p67, you're just insisting that it doesn't without refuting the logic behind it. You're wrong about dfs -- between those links and my analysis it should be clear how. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 16 2014 09:28 Epishade wrote: @Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not. Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose. Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying. There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
It's a pointless hypothetical anyway since no one claimed parity cop. All the data points to you being town and bunnies being mafia. That's what my vote is built on and why it's currently staying on bunnies. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 16 2014 12:08 27ninjabunnies wrote: So epishade willing to take his vote off a reconsider things makes me think he is more town than eden. So I'm pretty sure I'm keeping my vote where it is at, but I will be posting more. I'm going to go through the filter on Eden, and see if there is anything I can find, I'll post in the morning. This isn't really sound logic, I'm sure all of us are constantly considering and reconsidering things. The votes being where they are doesn't really matter. And a reminder here, you said this earlier: On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote: So, after reading through the filter of Eden, I actually like him. and that's scary. And I was gonna say this:Even though you are from Louisiana, sorry bud, but you are mafia. And here is why.- but I can't find any good reasons for why he is mafia. Obviously you can change your mind about this, but I expect you to explain what changed if you reread the filter and decide I'm not town. If you can't do this to my satisfaction then there's no way my vote's moving. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
** No, Epishade's relative willingness to move his vote compared to me doesn't speak to either of our alignments, it just speaks to the data. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I don't see where there's a similar benefit to dravernor and dfs constantly scumreading their frontman. The whole point of having a mafia player that talks a lot and tries to steer the town's direction is to be successful in steering it. Having two people who are constantly saying "nope this guy is definitely mafia don't listen to him" is a huge thorn in the frontman's side, especially in a game with only 13 players, because if any of the town players think the frontman is playing weirdly on top of the teammates suspecting him, the frontman has no chance of steering the town anywhere and the whole purpose of having a frontman is defeated. So no, I think it makes much more sense that Epishade is town and the mafia were throwing dirt at him than it does that you're town and the mafia were intentionally sabotaging their own attempts to steer discussion just to win 3p LYLO (which is the only realistic explanation for how dravernor and dfs could have acted the way they did and Epishade could be scum). | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I don't think I get your last paragraph here either. You're saying it "could" be that I'm mafia and my teammates were instructed to throw suspicion on me so I could bus the hell out of both of them. Is that what you think happened, though? Sounds like a nitpicky question, but qualifying/distancing language, like using "could" when you mean "did," is typical of people who are being dishonest and don't want to get pinned down into a concrete position they don't feel comfortable supporting. If you're going to argue that theory, don't come at me with that "could" crap, we don't have time for dancing around like this. And if it is what you think happened, then I think Occam's Razor is the way to go here. Was there extreme dissociation between the quiet mafia and the frontman mafia, such that the quiet mafia were actively calling their own frontman suspicious, sacrificing their faction's ability to steer discussion in the far-flung hope that should it ever get to 3p LYLO the frontman would be clear by way of busing his teammates? Or am I town and the mafia were just trying to discredit me before I lynched them? Obviously the latter. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Knowing now that it's your belief that I'm mafia, that I instructed dravernor and dfs to scumread me, and that I sold both my teammates up the river and essentially set them up to be pinatas for me to knock down to prove my towniness, I'm just gonna Occam's Razor this shit again. Simplest explanation is the best. If the choice is between "Eden is mafia and has been orchestrating this grand conspiracy from the first day where he talks a lot and tries to steer discussion while his teammates throw dirt at him, then he buses them at an opportune moment to ride off into the sunset with the victory" and "Eden is town and eventually helped catch the mafia," it's not a choice at all, the second explanation is much more sensible. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 17 2014 02:33 Epishade wrote: Eden I didn't like that you believed that Bunny panicking was indicative of her mafia alignment. It seemed like you wanted to say that to sway me to solidify my vote against her. Your parity cop explanation I didn't particularly care for either, but I may be reading too much into that so I'm not sure. I would also disagree that changing my vote isn't indicative of my alignment. You're welcome to disagree with me re: her panicking, but I'm standing by what I said there, it was way too early to panic and I think scum would be more likely to do that than town in this instance. It's not even close to the main cog in my argument so I'm not really concerned with it either way. re: vote change, the only reason it looks townie imo is because I independently think you're town from the other data in the thread. If we're just looking at it in isolation, you could be mafia changing your vote because you know town!bunnies would happily go with it to avoid being lynched, or you could be town changing it due to a genuine change of heart on your read on her. It doesn't say anything either way on its own. What DOES say something either way is you being scumread the whole game by dravernor and dfs, that's as close to ironclad proof as we're gonna get. On May 17 2014 02:48 27ninjabunnies wrote: Final defense: Why i am town: I've been proactive throughout the game. I've led lynches where i felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia. I've questioned reads, reconsidered positions, and also got a mislynch pulled off of meat and yellow. I was being read as town by the entire town. I have given logic behind my reads, given information on why I think epishade is town, and a bit why eden is mafia, including possible logical scenerios that could have taken place. - I've been more proactive throughout the game. - I've led lynches where I felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia. - I've questioned reads and reconsidered positions. I can't remember explicitly saving a townie from being mislynched, but I also don't remember her doing this either, because I don't remember where meat or Yell0w were serious threats to be lynched. - All three of us have been solidly townread by the town. - I did this as well, to much greater depth and detail than bunnies did. - The data from our dead mafia points more strongly at her than me; see my comments re: Occam's Razor in the last couple of posts for details. - I've been much more objective in analyzing all three of us and the reads the dead mafia gave on each of us this turn, whereas I don't think bunnies has done the same; she's done an awful lot of insisting that she's town instead of allowing the data to demonstrate it, and it's because the data doesn't and can't demonstrate it. I acknowledge it's not a clear-cut decision for you Epishade but I think the data ultimately does point to bunnies as the final mafia over me. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
The Yell0w nightkill IS still WIFOM in the end. You say bunnies didn't try to scumread me for it, but she definitely did! I can go pull several posts from this day where she did exactly what you're saying she didn't do. And I don't think she has to have "framed" me to be scummy here. Yell0w wasn't going to get mislynched. You both had absolutely townread him. If either of you had been mafia, don't you think I'd have noticed you do a complete 180 at 3p LYLO to vote with me to kill Yell0w? Yell0w was the only person who was for sure not going to get lynched, so he got nightkilled. Anything beyond that is unverifiable speculation. You're correct that I sided with you over bunnies because you were scumread by dravernor and dfs. It has nothing to do with my alignment. My choice is between you two, my alignment doesn't play into it at all. That choice was pretty clear. In your analysis, you haven't answered the crucial question I've been posing to bunnies (with no satisfactory answer). Why would dravernor and dfs be setting themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning? That's the only consistent explanation for how I can be their teammate, and it's not plausible at all. Looking at the day-of events on the day dravernor was lynched isn't the right way to assess whether dravernor was bused; looking at the events prior to it is the right way to make that assessment. I nulled or scumread her the whole way up to the lynch, she nulled or scumread me the whole way up to the lynch. That's not the profile of mafia busing mafia, that's the profile of a town player successfully sniffing her out as mafia and making sure she got lynched. I think if I were mafia on that day, I could have gotten ahswtini lynched without much of a problem, since I was scumreading her as well and several others were too. Busing when other options are available is typically a pretty terrible move, and I think it's pretty obvious I didn't bus here as a result, because I would have had other options had I been mafia. You still have time to make the right call here. You know what the data's telling you. The theory that I had my teammates set themselves up to be bused so I could ride to the end just doesn't add up. Even in your last post here, which had several good arguments in it, you couldn't coherently explain how this happened; you explained piecemeal details that don't make sense as a whole picture. It's because that's not what happened. I didn't bus either of dravernor or dfs, because I'm not mafia. I'm town. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
It's frustrating that her flip flop has gone completely unnoticed here, because I feel like it went unnoticed because I didn't bite on it. How does she go from "I can't find anything in Eden's filter I don't like" to being convinced I'm mafia? It just doesn't make sense! | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Think it over some more. You know what your brain is telling you to do. It doesn't make sense any other way. She has to be mafia. dravernor's and dfs's actions across the whole game don't fit any other possible partner. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
The problem with dfs's and dravernor's townreads isn't that they townread bunnies for no reason, it's that they didn't townread me. The choice here isn't "townread Eden and don't townread bunnies" vs "townread bunnies and don't townread Eden." The choice is "townread Eden and bunnies" (indicating I'm their partner) or "townread bunnies but not Eden" (indicating I'm not their partner). I don't think it's suspicious in and of itself that they townread bunnies, I think it's obvious that bunnies has to be the partner because they didn't townread me as well. If I were their partner they could easily have townread me to give my arguments added credibility and been able to justify that townread without much problem. But they didn't, because I'm not their partner. re: tambo lynch d1, I understand why you wouldn't agree with my reasoning if you were worried that tambo was the vig, but I was really sure at the time that it was a fakeclaim. I hate to dig into my limited meta here to back myself up, but in the only other game I've played here, I pushed for a lynch on an un-counterclaimed parity cop on d1 as town because I didn't believe his claim. If I think it's more likely that someone is anti-town than they are town, even after factoring in a role claim, I don't let the role claim on principle stop me from trying to lynch them. We might end up x-posting here, but you still haven't answered the crucial question I keep harping on here -- why would dravernor and dfs set themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning like this? It requires prescience that I would end up in the final three, which doesn't make sense at all. One, there's no way to know that on D1, and two, scum don't play for a win like that, they try to get as many people to LYLO as they can so they have as much control of the endgame vote as they can. Willfully sacrificing two thirds of their voting power to push one guy to the endgame doesn't make sense. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 17 2014 06:48 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay i want to poit out something, i andwered your questions, eden, and you chose to ignore it! I said that the play of drav and dfs putting slight suspicion towards you towards the end was due to you telling them they needed to. Like i said, it was just a possible scenerio in my mind, they could have done it unintentionally or it could be a play. As for the sacrifice, no i dont think it was a play from the beginning. Hell, for all i know, they didnt even know you were going to push them in front of a bus. Maybe it just so happened to be that way. What i was saying os that with suspicion on you, if you get pynched, it buys them credibility as town, if they get lynched, it buys you credibility as town I didn't choose to ignore it, I explicitly addressed this. You actually ignored it, saying that you didn't know what Occam's Razor was. If you truly don't know what it means then that's one thing, but don't come at me like I didn't address this, 'cause I definitely did. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 17 2014 06:49 Epishade wrote: The only way I can see that you mean they are setting themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning is that they weren't townreading you, and that if they were townreading you, you might have had more power to sway people. It might not make the most sense to not townread one of your partners, but to me, it's like they're investing in risk. They weren't setting themselves up to be lynched later, but you were the strongest of the two of them (if you are mafia, anyways). If they get lynched, them not townreading you would make you look townie in comparison. It's more than just taking away my power to sway people, they didn't follow me on my attempt to lynch tambo d1 when we'd have been able to kill off a claimed town vig or an sk. I'll double check but I think they only voted with me once, for sqrt on d2, when he was a near-consensus pick. They actively didn't coordinate with me the whole way. You can call it hedging for them being caught, but that's another way to say the same thing I'm meaning -- they're actively sacrificing our ability to coordinate as a team in favor of making me look townie for busing them, and doing all this from the opening day. It just doesn't fit the mafia's goals at all. The mafia's advantage is being able to coordinate. Throwing that away on the off-chance that I make it to 3p LYLO doesn't make sense! | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
![[image loading]](http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6odkq8jNo1qbolbn.gif) | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Good on you following your heart, Epishade. That long post with about an hour to go was excellent. Y'all earned this one for sure. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 17 2014 08:31 Epishade wrote: That was stressful figuring out who to lynch. Eden, was I on track with that parity cop thing, did you slip up? Sorta kinda. I meant what I was asking and didn't think the comment itself was especially scummy, but my delivery was subpar and I'm sure my alignment had something to do with it. Nah the big slip was me asking about the vig shot whenever that was, and you caught it immediately. also that vigi claim was fuckin GOAT lmao === Despite losing, I'm happy with this ending. From my standpoint, I did nearly everything I could; I don't have any regrets about how I played. And in the end, seeing somebody set aside his fears and doubts, trusting his heart, and winning because of it? That's why we play the game. That ending was a quintessential mafia ending and while I obviously would have preferred to win, I can't be upset losing that way. Fantastic show from all of you. Thanks for a wonderful experience. | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I think I might have given Robik shit about being a coach before this, but his style is well suited for it imo | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
| ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 17 2014 10:30 Epishade wrote: Misread what you said. Wonder if anyone got it though during the game. i did nvr5get | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
but it threw me way the fuck off so i guess it worked out this time | ||
|
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 17 2014 18:19 mtamburini wrote: trololololol Read the mafia QT and had a laugh had you all spinning! I felt I had a decent grasp on the game of the power roles in the game (thought there was a parity cop though someone seemed to soft it hard) but they were mafia I think through out my notes when we won! meat was softing it super hard, i talked about it in the maf qt | ||
| ||
