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On May 09 2014 22:40 ahswtini wrote:
What do you think of the fact that mtamburini our fake vig wasn't roleblocked on the second night, where he was almost certainly going to shoot yellow. That, for me, is good enough proof that he's town.
However, I'm getting more and more worried about bunnies. Her quality of play has dropped off dramatically since the first day. As a high priority target, I would have expected her to die already. Yes, Mafia probably thought she was being protected, but consider the possibility that she successfully fooled all of us, especially the jailer, into believing she is supertown, so that it wouldn't look weird for her to still be alive after three nights. She has never pushed me that hard either, despite how easy it would be to, and again I think that's because there's simply no need for her to get involved when the town are already on the case.
With regards to my voting behaviour yesterday, I think you'll find that I DID initially put my vote on mysterymeat, but he convinced me to unvote in favour of killing drav or dfs. Just because I was arguing for meat and dfs to die doesn't mean I can't be persuaded to vote for someone else. I didn't vote dfs because I would have been the only vote, and I was criticised before for making an "outlier" vote. I called drav out to make a post, and her post didn't reassure me of her alignment at all. I also voted drav to make sure the scum team couldn't make a last minute vote blitz onto meat, on the off chance that he WAS innocent.
I agree my play has dropped significantly, but so has everyone else's.
Exactly how many pages of filter have you contributed compared to mine?
Also, exactly how many pages have we gained since last night when I posted? 0. 0 freaking pages.
While I get this is a newbie game, I'm not going to work my ass off and annoy everyone with post after post of me.
I've been trying to get people to talk, especially you. I have asked you multiple times for your reads and contributions and you have barely given anything.
Yes, I could have easily gone on you, but after my initial push on yell0w, which whom many thought I was scummy for doing so, I decided not to just tunnel on one person.
I'm just as surprised as yu are that I have not died yet, and it's probably because of this reason here. Some mafia is going to try and push a ml on me, trying to make town paranoid.
Well buddy, it's not going to work. So convince me why you are not the lynch today.
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Northern Ireland22208 Posts
Oh wow so we're going by post count now? What happened to the aggressive enthusiastic posting you displayed at the beginning? Should we not be looking at the change in posting behaviour, as opposed to simply how many posts someone's made?
I don't understand your newbie game line either. Are you saying you're not putting your 100% into this game because this is a newbie game?
On May 09 2014 10:37 27ninjabunnies wrote:
I'm gonna have t take a step back a reassess some things. I'll make a post within the next couple of hours.
!
Still waiting for your post. Right now, your play just seems reactionary. I don't know if establishing yourself as the most innocent player in everyone's eyes has given you a sense of complacency. You're never going to get lynched, so if you ARE mafia, then well played. I don't like saying "I told you so".
As for why I shouldn't be lynched, I'm trying to post and contribute. It's just so difficult to pin down a scum read on anyone at this point. I suspect dfs, but then Mafia were happy to let mtamburini shoot him or myself. That is, if meat's roleblock claim is to be believed. I can't understand why he would be blocked again. Maybe they saw how much town reacted with suspicion to his first roleblock. But there was also the delay before he came out with his roleblock claim. Was he waiting to see if someone else would claim first, or does he just not check his PMs?
This sounds cliched, but if I get lynched, we lose, and I like I said before, I don't like saying "I fucking told you so"
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On May 09 2014 16:08 dfs wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2014 11:43 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
ya, im really wondering why i was the one who got roleblocked. I thought it would make sense if they are going to kill him, but now im soo lost as to why they used it on me again... NOW you're wondering why you were roleblocked? Because during the day you were pretty convinced you were the best target. Also, that guy...
I already knew i was roleblocked when the day started. I just wanted to see if any of the main players were going to claim being roleblocked. I was looking at epishade or eden to see if they would claim. As those are the two i'm on the fence about. It would make sense for a mafia to claim or cc a roleblock on me, because it would be easier to lynch me in that sense. Its pretty clear that the three of us dont agree 100% with each other and could be convinced into lynching. I'm stepping back and re thinking my thoughts on epishade and Eden. Yesterday and today are different days dfs, keep up yo.
@Eden.
Everyone thought that mtamb was vigi. Why would mafia choose to roll block me when they could roll block a "vigi". The reason they didn't was because he was going to shoot yell0w. No one knew or really believed he couldn't shoot yell0w. They choose to kill ritoky and use their roleblock on me. I know my roleblock claims are "unfalsifiable" but we are not lynching yell0w today or tomorrow.
dfs i'm 100% convinced is mafia
80% on ahs
60% your mafia - just cause your reads aren't useful
40% on epishade.
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There is also probably a reason that parity cop hasnt come out, and i think you should think about that eden
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Tamburini claims vigi at April 30, 21:53 (Day 1)
Amiko was shot dead on night one at May 02, 22:04 (Night 1)
Tamburini claims being roleblocked at May 02, 22:22 (Day 2) - Probably true
Bunny claims being roleblocked at May 04, 05:09 (Day 2) - Most likely true from Ritoky
Ritoky was shot dead on night two at May 05, 22:11 (Night 2) - we lose a town roleblocker
Meat claims being roleblocked at May 05, 23:35 (Day 3) - nobody else claims to be roleblocked.
Bunny claims being roleblocked once again at May 06, 01:06 (Day 3)
Tamburini says he didn't shoot voluntarily, likely as a way to not get Meat instalynched because he sees Meat as town. If Tamburini had claimed roleblock as vigi, Meat would have gotten lynched and then Tamburini next if Meat flipped town, losing us the game - May 06, 02:42 (Day 3)
Tamburini was shot dead on night three at May 08, 22:00 (Night 3)
Meat claims being roleblocked once again at May 09, 01:52 (Day 4)
So to sum up:
Day 2, we get 2 roleblock claims from Bunny and Tamburini.
Night 2, Ritoky dies and we lose a roleblocker.
Day 3, we get 2 roleblock claims from Bunny and Meat. Tamburini admits he wasn't roleblocked, and just chose not to shoot.
Day 4, we get another roleblock claim from Meat.
Am I doing something wrong here, or are we not supposed to have 2 roleblock claims on Day 3? Someone double check me here in case I got my times mixed up or something. If not, and I'm correct, then one of Meat or Bunny is scum I think.
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bunnies was jailed, when you get jailed you are roleblocked. but nothign can happen to you. I'm pretty sure
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even though ritoky was killed his action still goes through. I was blocked by mafia, and bunnies was jailed by town.
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Oh wait, I think I didn't take into accoun. Ritoky's jailer still going through even if he dies. Then the two claims on day 3 do still make sense.
I guess you guys can scratch all that out. I can't deduce anything from the role block claims over the past few days.
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On May 10 2014 04:15 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
even though ritoky was killed his action still goes through. I was blocked by mafia, and bunnies was jailed by town.
Yea that's where I messed up.
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Epishade, out of the three of us eden, you, me
only one of us is mafia.
dfs is guarenteed
ahs is pretty confirmed mafia
my biggest gut feeling, and i want to side with you more than i want to side with eden now... ugggg im soooo torn
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On May 10 2014 04:29 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Epishade, out of the three of us eden, you, me
only one of us is mafia.
dfs is guarenteed
ahs is pretty confirmed mafia
my biggest gut feeling, and i want to side with you more than i want to side with eden now... ugggg im soooo torn
I'm pretty sure Eden isn't mafia. Look through Drav's filter again and see if they look like scumbuddies. I've looked through a bunch when I posted about Ahs, and, though I wasn't looking particularly hard for eden, I believe she scum read him the whole game along with me. I'll take another look though but I'm pretty sure we're both town. I'll also take another look at interactions between Drav and Yellow. I believe Yellow is probable town as well because Drav also scumreads Yellow from what I remember.
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Northern Ireland22208 Posts
On May 10 2014 04:29 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Epishade, out of the three of us eden, you, me
only one of us is mafia.
dfs is guarenteed
ahs is pretty confirmed mafia
my biggest gut feeling, and i want to side with you more than i want to side with eden now... ugggg im soooo torn
How the fuck am I confirmed Mafia?
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out of eden epi, and I - one of us is mafia
out of ahs and bunny one of you are mafia.
yellow is confirmed
and dfs is mafia
since i know i'm town and im like 100% sure bunnies is town. that leaves me with eden and epi being mafia, and i think its eden, uggg why am i on tl. I have a cs exam in 4 hours later.
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So I'm just gonna go ahead and vote for dfs now, I made a case against him already, would have voted for him straight away but I wanted to let him a chance to say something, but he posted about something else instead without acknowledging at all that people think he's mafia.
##Vote: dfs
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Okay, so, after looking through dravs filter, I agree with what Epishade says.
So my scum lynches for today would be dfs first, followed by ahs, then Eden/Meat (the latter two being my paranoid voting.)
I have work tonight, so I'm going ahead and voting now.
##Vote:Dfs
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Ok, so I had another quick read through of Drav's filter and there are some more things that I'm noticing.
Not only is she townreading Meat the whole game, but also Dfs, despite both of them not really proving themselves as town. She defends Meat a little from Ahswtini's small push.
I looked through Dfs' filter and he has pretty much nothing to say about Drav. He mentions her a total of three times, and all times gives a pretty much null read.
At this point, I think Eden is town and Meat is possible town as well. I also believe Yellow could be town, but that's more of a gut feeling than anything. Yellow could still be scum, and Eden could be correct on him, but I'm not ready to vote Yellow now either.
Ahs I'm not entirely sure about now. I thought he was scum to begin with, mainly because of his lack of posting early game. He thinks Dfs and Meat are scum, but particularly Dfs.
I think Dfs is the best lynch at this point. I don't think Meat was attempting to bus him, either. If you look through Dfs' filter and ctrl+f for Meat, Yell0w, and Ahs, you can see he's been scumreading them all game.
His conflicting interactions with Yellow make me think they can't be scumpartners. He doesn't say much about Ahs, but still scumreads him on the basis that he hasn't been talking much. And same feelings towards Meat.
Nobody else do I really consider to be mafia right now other than him. I think Dfs is mafia at this point. Then, if Dfs flips scum, that clears Ahs for me, as well as Yellow and probably Meat too, as those guys have been his biggest scumreads all game so far. He's been in my potential mafia list the whole game too, and nothing has convinced me he's not so far.
##Vote: dfs
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On May 10 2014 03:31 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
@Eden.
Everyone thought that mtamb was vigi. Why would mafia choose to roll block me when they could roll block a "vigi". The reason they didn't was because he was going to shoot yell0w. No one knew or really believed he couldn't shoot yell0w. They choose to kill ritoky and use their roleblock on me. I know my roleblock claims are "unfalsifiable" but we are not lynching yell0w today or tomorrow.
dfs i'm 100% convinced is mafia
80% on ahs
60% your mafia - just cause your reads aren't useful
40% on epishade.
He chose not to shoot that night because he was worried about losing the game for us. The mafia could easily have predicted this and chose to roleblock someone they thought was a power role. It's weird to me that you're not even considering this possibility. Weird, as opposed to scummy, because you're probably town in my book, but it's starting to make me wonder since you're so insistent that I'm wrong, claiming my "reads aren't useful," and the like, but you're not doing the slightest thing to try to persuade me of this. It's like you're content to see me be wrong about it and I don't understand why that would be.
On May 10 2014 03:33 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
There is also probably a reason that parity cop hasnt come out, and i think you should think about that eden
I think I have a pretty good idea, but in case the mafia don't I'm not going to say anything. Why do you want me talking about this instead of finding scum, though?
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You're really going to go with that theory that I'm mafia and predicted tamburini wouldn't shoot me despite being on my case all game prior to that moment?
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On May 10 2014 11:39 Yell0w wrote:
You're really going to go with that theory that I'm mafia and predicted tamburini wouldn't shoot me despite being on my case all game prior to that moment?
Do you think restating my argument back to me in the form of a skeptical question is going to dissuade me?
Yes, I think so. If he's wrong then he loses the game, plain and simple. It's entirely reasonable to predict that the mafia would predict he wouldn't shoot as a result and would choose not to roleblock him. Look at the consequences of it, meat is clearing you 100% and no one but me seems willing to lynch you as a result. It's a risky play but it's not at all unreasonable. Your handwaving dismissal is doing a lot to confirm its truth to me.
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EPT
