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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 02 2014 09:57 Epishade wrote: Very well, I can wait until the next day to make my case if I'm still alive. If this is really a concern, just post your case shortly before the deadline. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On May 03 2014 01:00 Amiko wrote: @sqrt: Can you explain your current reads on Epishade & dravenor? Like I said, I think epishade is town. The first thing that caught my eye is that he read the other newbie games. I like that. That showed that he was willing to take the time to see our playstyles. If he were mafia, there wouldn't be a good reason for him to do that, because he knows who's scum. He's also been contributing a fair amount, that's good. And I made a mistake on my case against him. Drav hasn't been as active. He's a bit more fishy. He initially thinks bunny + epishade scum team, with yellow town. Then he says he reread the whole thread, and then came up with new reads. Bunny goes from scum to top town, epishade stays scum, yellow turns scum. He votes epishade. I'm still on the fence, but he definitely needs to talk more. Definitely. | ||
dravernor
Netherlands6192 Posts
I'm sorry I haven't been around recently. I have been having pretty bad (and unexpected) time management + internet access issues, which is why I haven't really had a chance to post much. I have a lot to catch up on it seems, but I am somewhat surprised that after all the heavy mtamburini talk that Sweetfrost got lynched in the end. Tbh Sweetfrost was never very high up on my list of possible scum, and that was probably because I ddin't get enough out of his posts to make a proper read. In short I am still confused as to why he seemed more suspicious than mtamburini, Yell0w or Epishade. I also noticed I was the only one who voted Epishade. I understandably didn't make a very strong case against him, as I was more contributing to other people's cases than making my own specific case, but I still think he is quite shady (i swear no pun was intended) and none of you seem to think so. Amiko, what are your thoughts on him? You seem to be trying to analyze people the most deeply, so I am interested to hear about why you don't consider him a likely suspect. Am I missing a few posts? It is possible I am given that I have been afk so much. sqrt: Yeah, you're in this one buddy  - my concern on your play is that although you have developed some players as potential scumreads, I don't see you strongly pushing on those players yet. However, you've been active in the game, and responsive. So, you are not a lynch for me day 1. That said, some of your reads are still weird to me.I thought someone asked this but rereading I was confused- @sqrt: How did you see meat as town? I feel like he posted next to nothing when you read him Epishade: Epishade is less town to me than sqrt or bunnies, but right now I don't think I would want to lynch him. I felt his early defense was reasonable... I feel he focused a little too much time on yell0w, but it seemed fine given that the thread has given so much attention to yell0w. Moving forward, I'd like to see epishade focus tamburini more if tamburini is his highest scumread, I may reevaluate based on how he goes.. Is this content still relevant? Are these still your current reads on these two players? What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right? Also, bunnies is coming across as so incredibly town that I am not sure it is genuine. Yes, this is a jump back on my previous decision about her, but only because she has been unfaltering recently to a degree that I am wondering if she is just REALLY good at blending in? Amiko too. No one seems to have questioned him much recently. Everyone just accepts the two of them as straight cut town. I don't think you're mafia just yet, but you also seem too on-the-ball to be vanilla town. You seem concerned about appearing as town too, which is what i read off of your constant posts regarding reads on people, but I do like that Amiko regularly contributes his thoughts (over sqrt who seems to post a lot but not say much) so much that is is possible for the rest of us to gain some perspective. However, I can't be sure that you're not feeding us bullshit. And yes, I did read this post and I do think it is very helpful that you have been helping so much with opinions and reads. I dunno though, maybe it comes across as you trying too hard? I am also suspicious because from what I am picking up, you seem to have the most influence here, more than our self-proclaimed leader and vigi, mtamburini. @all: Everyone looks up to Amiko and Eden and their reads. Is it good to be reliant on these two people? How do you know you can trust their reads? I'll admit that I am very persuaded by Eden's argument for tamb being sk, and I dislike being so easily persuaded. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
In other words, who is the most valuable townie right now? | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
Are you trying to find out who you and your mafia partners should kill tonight? | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
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dravernor
Netherlands6192 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
I won't be here until deadline tho. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
Voting was different then im used to a lot of votes in different directions. Sweet kinda got blitzed in the end but I dont think mafia would reveal themselves that early in the game esp if there is no pressure on them and / or being voted on with no threat of being lynched. I wouldnt be completely surprised if all town voted on sweet frost the only person who had some pressure on them to be lynched was me and sqrt (kinda) and knowing that Im town I think mafia just held their votes where they were cause they were in no real situation to die yesterday | ||
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
--------- (). --------- @dravenor’s post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=38#743 Epishade: I think Epishade has done a better job than many players of explaining his reasoning. His reads feel like they are reactive and change in reasonable ways which I think is usually a good indicator of being town. For example, Epishade’s vote moved around some d1 (mtamburini, sweetfrost, eden, sweetfrost) but I feel like he gave explanations as he did change his vote which were mostly reasonable. I feel like your concern over Epishade is largely drawn from his defensiveness early game. I just don’t find that to be strongly mafia indicative. In other words, I think the possibilities (scum-Epishade defend town-yell0w, scum-Epishade defend scum-yell0w, town-Epishade defend town-yell0w, town-Epishade defend scum-yell0w) are all somewhat reasonable. ahswtini- I have to take another look later if I’m alive, sorry. Time limited. tamburini thought If tamburini is the SK, I still don’t think he’s necessarily a great lynch tomorrow. If he is SK, his goal should be to keep some balance between the alignments. Since we mislynched d1 and we’ll likely lose another person to mafia KP tonight, a serial killer should probably try to kill a mafia to keep the game balanced out. In other words, I still don’t trust tamburini, but I do feel like if he isn’t scum he should still be working toward a town goal, at least for now. If there’s a scum killed tonight we can re-evalute this. me/bunnies/Eden (and general “if I die thoughts”): I understand the point that bunnies & I are fairly townread by most people, but I think you may be overstating town reliance on us / influence we wield. I mean, even if bunnies and I are the most townread, we still only got sqrt & Epishade to join the push on Sweetfrost. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Just filter people, see if their reads make sense, see how they talk about other people. As the game continues and people claim roles, refer back to votes/comments and see if it is consistent. I don't have any secret suspicions right now. Win for town | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Sweetfrost (4): 27ninjabunnies, Epishade, Amiko, sqrtofneg1 mtamburini (3): MysteryMeat1, Eden1892, Yell0w Epishade (1): dravernor Yell0w (1): mtamburini sqrtofneg1 (2): Sweetfrost, dfs MysteryMeat1 (1): ahswtini ahswtini (1): ritoky Outliers from Group II: - dravernor - mtamburini - Sweetfrost - dfs - ahswtini - ritoky dravernor didn't do anything to try to get people to vote for Epishade, but I understand he's having internet access and time issues. He literally didn't post for 48 hours after he voted Epishade. I'm not taking him off the list of suspects here but it's too hard to tell right now whether or not he's mafia parking on an outlier or whether he's just being strangled by internet access problems. mtamburini, as I previously observed a full two days ago now, hasn't been scumhunting and didn't develop a real case against Yell0w. I could maybe find it in my heart to look at him less negatively if he had, after being called out for not scumhunting or making a case, cleaned up his act and worked harder on making his case. Reading through his filter since he acknowledged my post against him, he made exactly one reference to Yell0w since, and that was only to declare him as the target he would shoot tonight. I don't see him being town-motivated here; even if you want to shoot Yell0w tonight, why aren't you making your vote count, and why aren't you trying to find other scum? I think his focus is obvious, he's the serial killer and he's preoccupied with keeping his story straight instead of scumhunting. Sweetfrost flipped town. dfs doesn't post much at all, but his style is reminding me of RolandJarvis's from Newbie LIV. It's significantly less thorough, but it's also nothing that I find particularly suspicious right now. And to be fair, sqrt *might* have been a viable wagon if the votes were even a little different. But I don't really see where dfs did much at the end to create that wagon. (cf. me trying to recruit people to kill mtamburini) I need to see more from him because what he HAS said is fine, but he hasn't said enough and I don't feel he tried hard enough to get his preferred candidate lynched. ahswtini voted MysteryMeat1 because his posts didn't have a lot of content to them, which he felt was scummy. I kinda see the logic to it, but I'm a little confused why he said he "has no scumreads" literally the post before he declares Meat scummy. My main problem is that he says he "can see the case for Sweetfrost [...] and so [he doesn't] want to just jump onto that vote." He then says, next sentence, that the "votes ARE dangerously spread out." He says this while actively contributing to the spread. I'm sure someone's going to say that's too dummy to be scummy / mafia would never be this blatant / etc. but I'm going with the straightforward answer here, he's mafia. ritoky fits as a possible partner of ahswtini despite voting for him. Why? Because he didn't make any effort to get ahswtini lynched. But his other posts seem to be trying to figure things out, and don't seem to be especially scum-motivated. I'd like ritoky to explain why he didn't work very hard to get people to kill ahswtini if he thought ahswtini is scum, and we'll go from there. This action moves him back to null because while everything he posted before then sounds good, his actions wrt voting don't look good, and I think that in the end you're going to catch scum not by whether their words seem townie or scummy but rather by how well their actions line up with what they're saying. ritoky did argue against both lynches, but he didn't argue in favor of his. If he's mafia, then knowing neither lynch candidate is mafia, he looks good objecting to both while parking his vote on a suspicious teammate. === I'm running out of time with this post, but there's two suspects (ahswtini and ritoky) if I die tonight. Tomorrow I'll work on cutting into the people on the major wagons and teasing out more possible suspects and interactions. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
I'd also look at dravenor/Epishade/Meat during the day if i were to die. Thats all I can give right now. | ||
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Yell0w
120 Posts
I don't think this lynch was made by mafia, most likely scenario is we didn't scare mafia enough, so they just voted randomly. So if I am alive tomorrow, I'd probably look at some guys who didn't get votes against them and didn't vote for sweetfrost, I'd say at most one mafia voted against him, my bet would be sqrt. So I'd look towards the quiet people, like ahs, dravernor or mysterymeat, maybe dfs. That obviously depends on what happens during the night though. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I forgot to make this point, but thanks for indirectly reminding me. Sqrt asking about mafia action does strike me as suspicious partly because of his questioning in another game - in a prior game, sqrt asked the following n1 as doctor: On March 28 2014 08:06 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Eden, if you were doctor, who would you save now? Who's your top town? | ||
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
Ive thought long and hard, but Im gonna put my shot on Yell0w tonight. | ||
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