EPTOn May 02 2014 04:59 27ninjabunnies wrote:
I honestly don't think that tamburini should out his shot.
I honestly don't think that tamburini should out his shot.
Why not? He should, at the very least, right before the end of N1.
Newbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 33
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
Why not? He should, at the very least, right before the end of N1. | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
[QUOTE]On May 02 2014 04:59 27ninjabunnies wrote: I honestly don't think that tamburini should out his shot.[/QUOTE] Oh yes before the end of night 1, I agree. however right now, no. For this reason, mafia can't double stack on his kill if they don't know who it is. | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- I would say Sweetfrost except for the initial push he made on Yell0w. Can't see them being an item. Can't see them both being town, though, and he's not exactly contributing. I'd be fine with a Sweetfrost lynch in isolation, it's just the interaction with Yell0w is throwing me off. - dravernor hasn't done anything since yesterday. This is a problem. He's on an outlier with no significant case posted for his vote. This is a problem. - ashwtini we've been over, no suspects + really weak vote + no effort to get his target lynched = ezpzscummyskweezy - Yell0w | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
On May 02 2014 05:13 Eden1892 wrote: If mtamburini doesn't give me an assurance that he's shooting Yell0w or another scumread I have listed then I'm not moving my vote. I still think he's a serial killer and needs to go, and that the only reason we're even talking about another lynch is to grant him a stay of execution (a) in case we're wrong and (b) while it benefits us (i.e. shooting a mafia). I love your paranoia. It makes you more towny for me. But I wont announce my shot. Ill most likely do it in the night phase so I can draw some connections to the person who gets lynched and their alignment that flips. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm fine with mtamburini keeping quiet about his shot for now, as I said it should get declared just before night ends. But, I still think my point on Eden is fair (even if he thinks mtamburini is SK, if he thinks the SK is going to shoot scum then there's no reason to lynch the SK tonight). sqrt Sqrt has some votes and I want to at least explain my feelings on him a little better. I don't really see votes on him as scummy because my reluctance to lynch him d1 is largely meta-based, so it's understandable other people would feel differently. I do not read sqrt as a solid town, but here's why I tend to discount the current things that people feel are scummy: (1) Post length sqrt's short comments/posts are not a good indicator that he is scum. - In Newbie Mini Mafia LIV sqrt was a medic. Take a quick look at his filter in that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445959-newbie-mini-mafia-liv?user=sqrtofneg1&view=all - In Newbie Mini Mafia LIII sqrt was vanilla town. Take a quick look at his filter in that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/444775-newbie-mini-mafia-liii?user=sqrtofneg1&view=all In both of those games he was town, and made mostly short posts with occasional longer posts. This doesn't mean sqrt is town. But, I think it does mean sqrt can't reliably be seen as scum based on making short posts. (2) Weird Reads In LIV, as an observer I really suspected sqrt strongly based on his reads (Eden could confirm this from the /obs). Some of sqrt's shifting reads felt really off to me - for instance, he read a player (Tolkien) as scummy d1 for a trap Tolkien claimed to have made, then read him as towny d2 for the same trap. Sqrt ended up getting mislynched, and I think a fair part of that was due to explaining his reads poorly. I'm not saying "excuse sqrt's bad reads" - actually, I think sqrt was the only player alive at the end of the game who suspected one of the mafia (Onceking). But, I think looking at some of the other things he's done may be a better indication. I don't know sqrt's scum game so any meta read is limited to that, more or less (I can't say what he does as scum since I haven't seen him as scum yet). If it doesn't persuade you that's fine, but I hope it at least pushes sqrt down a bit and Sweetfrost up by comparison. @mtamburini and @Eden: You were each in a game with sqrt, do you have any thoughts on his play this game? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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mtamburini
Canada506 Posts
On May 02 2014 05:37 Amiko wrote: @mtamburini and @Eden: You were each in a game with sqrt, do you have any thoughts on his play this game? Tbh he did not come off super strong like he did last game I was with him. I haven't read any of the stuff hes posted but hes being a lot more aggressive imo then I can remember. Will have to look into it more. | ||
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Sweetfrost
Sweden213 Posts
On May 02 2014 03:20 Amiko wrote: My preferred lynches right now is Sweetfrost. Strongest point for Sweetfrost's is probably on reads, which have been contrary to most other players' views and not well explained. The initial suspicion of yell0w seemed fine, but when she says she sees either yell0w or bunnies as scum but not both, it's hard for me to see how she seem to see one as more persuasive than the other. The later vote on sqrt feels underevaluated. The paragraph above has been discussed before, but there is more to support a lynch on sweetfrost. I think Sweetfrost is a suspicious with regard to epishade/ritoky interactions. Sweetfrost clears ritoky for his posting style. That doesn't strike me as that unusual - ritoky had just presented reads that I felt were fairly clearly written. But, > Ritoky reads sqrt read as unusual/odd/difficult to read. Sweetfrost sees sqrt as scum. > Ritoky suspected Epishade. However, when ninjabunnies asked Sweetfrost about epishade being scummy, Sweet disagreed/didn't trust ninjabunnies' (gut)read of epishade as scummy. > Ritoky leaned town on bunnies, and odd on yell0w. Sweetfrost seems to see one of the two (but not both) as scum. This isn't totally inconsistent, but you'd think agreeing would mean considering yell0w the more likely scum. Sweet hasn't talked about many players, so there's not much more to compare. But, for the people she does comment on, it seems suspicious that her Sweetfrost's actions don't seem very aligned with ritoky's reads, which Sweet liked. Basically, I would expect agreement from SweetFrost on some reads, or think SweetFrost would pursue/question Ritoky's scumreads. Since we don't get much of either, looks bad. ##Vote: SweetFrost I do think there is a weak point in a case on SweetFrost - I will probably post it when I get back from lunch. It's better to hold onto for the moment. --- Two side notes: (1) Mysterymeat has given almost no contribution, but I don't see a lynch on him as useful. I would be okay with his lynch as a general lurker policy lynch, but it feels a little unfair - if he is tempbanned, he can't post here so he can't defend himself, can't roleclaim, etc. However, do we actually know when he can post again? If he's going to be unable to talk for any significant part of the game that's going to be an issue... + Show Spoiler + maybe we could get cavalinho to /replace so we could lynch him instead. (2) @all: In the next few hours, votes need to be consolidated. Mafia probably have three or four votes they can use, so to have a significant chance of lynching mafia we need to have town votes move together. If votes are spread out, they are easily manipulated. If you think someone you are voting for is clearly mafia more than the other potential votes, make your case ASAP. But, you need to move to the major wagons and sooner is better. I just came home and it seems it was just in time because I'm set to be lynched in under an hour. I understand the supiscion raised at me and with a post as well written has this I almost feel like voting for myself. But I'm innocent! I have myself to blame for being the prime suspect but I must ask you to reconsider. I have been very passive and trying to figure out which persons reads seems to be the most likley. After studying all of them I explained that I liked Rikoty's the best but I haven't made a lot of independet reads. The reason for this is that I feel like the information is not enough to but everyone in the town/scum bracket. I do however feel, as I explainee earlier, that sqrt's posts have been very provoking and constatly trying to raise supiscion against other players without really adding much, that is why I decided to place my vote on him and it will stay there. I'm not scum, I hope you will change your votes before the hour ends and if I survive I will try to be more active with my reads instead of spending most of the time reading other peoples reads and pointing out what I like/dislike about them. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Couple of caveats: - I haven't looked all that closely at him yet. I don't typically dig deep into people who are obvtown to me (cf. RolandJarvis in Newbie LIV) and sqrt's play so far has been doing all the right townie things. I have him on my list of "will reread filters for" but he's low on it. - I've only seen sqrt as the doctor. No scum priors so meta analysis is limited. But I think this supports the idea that he's town, because it means his change in mentality this game is the result of not feeling the need to hide as a power role. regarding your point on tambo shooting Yell0w, the fact that he explicitly continues to hide his kill is really making me think he's not shooting Yell0w. We can talk all day about how it's "obvious" that that's what he's doing, but if it's obvious to us that's what he's doing, it's obvious to the mafia as well, which means there really is no reason for him to hide it. Sorry, not buying it, he gets my vote. OUTLIERS: PLS EXPLAIN Y U STILL ON OUTLIERS | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Things I would like you to comment on: (1) What do you think of tamburini's vigilante claim? (2) Does my post here ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=33#648 ) make you feel differently on sqrt? It's fine if your answer is no, but I want to at least know that you considered it and still wanted to keep your vote on sqrt. (3) dfs also voted for sqrt. Could you give a read of him? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
[QUOTE]On May 02 2014 05:00 sqrtofneg1 wrote: [QUOTE]On May 02 2014 04:59 27ninjabunnies wrote: I honestly don't think that tamburini should out his shot.[/QUOTE] Oh yes before the end of night 1, I agree. however right now, no. For this reason, mafia can't double stack on his kill if they don't know who it is. [/QUOTE] I feel a double stack is possible but unlikely, but this is something I probably won't want to discuss until d2 so if you care about it and want to discuss it remind me then  | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Why does a SK enter thread the way mtamburini did? 2) Do you think SK is more likely to take veteran-power or scan immunity? @ninjabunnies if you are around I'd like you to answer the second one since you may feel differently as a video player. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
I believe tamburini's claim. I don't really read sweetfrost as more scummy than a lot of people. I am down to lynch epishade, ahswtini, and sqrt. If I need to move my vote off of ahs to one of the other two, then hopefully I can in time. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) I don't think a serial killer begins the game by calling himself a town leader, and (2) I think if tamburini is serial killer, he would take bulletproof. If he doesn't, claiming vigilante is very risky as scum may shoot him suspecting he is a vigilante. That seems like a greater risk than check-immunity, especially since this setup allows godfather/framer/miller so there's potential to argue over a bad looking cop check... it's harder to argue with being dead | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Your vote on ahswtini isn't likely to get more support, particularly since you are not here to argue for the lynch. If the votes are close between the other players (as they are) it's easy for mafia to move a few votes to avoid lynching scum. -- I will say SweetFrost has done something that reminds me of Cavalinho d1 my first forum game that is town-indicative to me... I'll think about it a bit. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 02 2014 06:32 Amiko wrote: @Eden: 1) Why does a SK enter thread the way mtamburini did? 2) Do you think SK is more likely to take veteran-power or scan immunity? I don't know why he entered the thread the way he did. I tried to incorporate that in my analysis when I was drafting it, but I can't explain it for any given alignment of his. It's just such a stupid play as the vigilante that I can't process how that could be it. At least as the serial killer the play makes sense, even if the execution is sloppy. I think the execution of his posts ("the way he entered the thread") is null because it doesn't appear to be advancing any agenda, and the direction behind his posts implicates him more strongly as serial killer than anything else. In general I think a serial killer is more likely to take veteran-power over scan immunity in a game with a parity cop, but I'm not sure how applicable that is to this scenario, because I don't think tambo would be talking about the cop scanning him at all if he hadn't already taken scan immunity. The whole bit about the parity cop kinda seemed to me like he was trying to bait a scan knowing he'd chosen scan immunity already. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I think his whole "town leader" shtick should be completely ignored because regardless of whether or not he's declaring himself town leader, he hasn't done a thing to lead the town. It's like that kid everyone knew in elementary school that always wanted to be team captain on the playground because he wanted to be a captain. I'd be more inclined to agree with you that a serial killer wouldn't put himself in the spotlight by trying to lead town if tambo had actually made a concerted effort at any point to lead town. But he hasn't, so I don't think it's worth factoring into this. | ||
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