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Newbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 05 2014 23:38 GMT
#953
rip ritoky

mtamburini I assume you got roleblocked again?

That means mysterymeat probably got blocked by the town roleblocker. I don't see why ritoky would jail him. Another night and still only one kill, I'm 99% certain there's no serial killer now.

Gotta sleep, see you all in the morning.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 06 2014 08:25 GMT
#971
On May 06 2014 08:57 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Guys its blowing my mind right now that ritoky is dead. Like it doesn't make any sense. If i was mafia, i would either kill bunny or mtamburini, The reason is that they are both pretty town and mtam at this point is pretty much guarenteed vigi. As a mafi I would like to get rid of a guarenteed town to put the remaining town into more confusion. At this point we have 9 people left and 3-4 mafias.

I'm vanilla town which leads me with almost a 50-50 chance of lynching a mafia.


I think its interesting that ritoky died he didn't like eden or epishade, i think this is probably a big indicator of why he was killed during the night.

Thinking about it any other way doesnt make much sense to me. Also i would like to say that i dont' have a role but got a pm saying that i was roleblocked.

in his posts ritoky is also suspicious of ahswtini, so i would like to lynch one of these 3 today.

Town circle
-Me
-bunnies
-tam
-dfs

fenced
-dravernor

scum
-epishade
-ahs
-eden
-yellow

Ok so you say that you would shoot bunny or mtamburini because they're pretty town, even though ritoky has been playing just as town. Instead you make some weak case that he was killed because he suspected people who were mafia, which Epishade quite rightly deconstructed. I don't see what you've done for the town circle - since you've been back your posting has hardly been insightful. You've just thrown down a vote for Epishade, but reading through your filter, I can't find any reasons for why you're suspicious of him.

I also like how you clear dfs, yet now you're asking for his thoughts as he hasn't posted in a few days. What's up with that?
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 06 2014 10:51 GMT
#977
On May 06 2014 19:37 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2014 12:15 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 06 2014 11:42 mtamburini wrote:
I didnt get role blocked

Bunnies you prob got roleblocked by ritoky IMO

I choose not to shoot last night just in case we are in Lylo today and I mis shoot and lose the game.

The fact that I didnt get roleblocked makes me wonder why not get roleblocked OR died in the night. There are more important roles I guess to roleblock like parity cop




SO basically you suck, and we dont know whether or not you are actual vigi.

Thanks tamburini!


So basically I probably saved the game if anything. Dont be hating.

If you were jailed by the dude that died that doesnt really confirm your allignement IMO but since I think there are not two jailors (I dont think I wouldve got jailed just roleblocked by town or mafia) and in this instance I am sold on it being mafia, I think this clears meat and yellow for me

Wait, why have those events cleared meat for you? I can understand yellow because you were intending to shoot him
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 06 2014 14:51 GMT
#981
On May 06 2014 20:15 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2014 19:51 ahswtini wrote:
On May 06 2014 19:37 mtamburini wrote:
On May 06 2014 12:15 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On May 06 2014 11:42 mtamburini wrote:
I didnt get role blocked

Bunnies you prob got roleblocked by ritoky IMO

I choose not to shoot last night just in case we are in Lylo today and I mis shoot and lose the game.

The fact that I didnt get roleblocked makes me wonder why not get roleblocked OR died in the night. There are more important roles I guess to roleblock like parity cop




SO basically you suck, and we dont know whether or not you are actual vigi.

Thanks tamburini!


So basically I probably saved the game if anything. Dont be hating.

If you were jailed by the dude that died that doesnt really confirm your allignement IMO but since I think there are not two jailors (I dont think I wouldve got jailed just roleblocked by town or mafia) and in this instance I am sold on it being mafia, I think this clears meat and yellow for me


Wait, why have those events cleared meat for you? I can understand yellow because you were intending to shoot him


I dont think there are 2 townsided roleblockers.

I believe bunines was jailed twice and I was blocked by mafia 2 nights ago and last night meat was blocked by mafia.

Therefore meat must be town for mafia to block him in the night.

My strongest feeling is there are 4 left based on the last TL game I played.

It was a 9 person game with 2 mafia, so 11 means 3 mafia and 13 means 4 mafia FMPOV.

Ok I follow you and agree. I've no reason to think that if there was a town roleblocker, they would not have acted on the first night - plenty of suspicious people to block. If you were roleblocked last night, PLEASE tell us. It doesn't put you at any risk and doesn't hurt town at all.

Now I'm trying to reason out why meat was roleblocked. If Mafia were trying to kill bunnies, who was almost certainly being protected, they may have blocked meat thinking he was the jailor. But then why not hit bunnies at the same time? It's otherwise a waste of a roleblock. It's possible that they figured bunnies was protected, so they hit ritoky. They blocked meat just in case he was the jailor and decided to protect ritoky at night. Or did they get a cop read off meat? Blocking a parity cop on the second night makes him totally useless.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 09:12 GMT
#1017
On May 07 2014 16:51 dfs wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2014 05:44 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
On May 07 2014 04:14 dfs wrote:
On May 07 2014 03:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
On May 07 2014 03:45 dfs wrote:
On May 07 2014 03:33 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
On May 07 2014 02:21 dfs wrote:
Well, this sucks.

Meat - roleblocked, which suggests he's town (except if mafia held off their roleblock to call it themselves and appear as town)

mtamburini - wasn't roleblocked, which is interesting, because when it was clear that he's going to shoot Yell0w he was blocked, but when he expressed his thoughts on being paranoic and wanting to shoot Bunny he wasn't blocked (instead it looks like the block was used blindly in the hopes to hit another power role, because no one else called their roles).

Simple conclusion from that alone:
Yell0w - mafia.
Bunny - town.
Meat - can be either.

Now I regret not voting mtamburini first day because he's been useless just like I anticipated. His day 1 vig flip would have given us Yell0w flip earlier as now I am sure he is mafia.

Also I find it a bit ironic that I called Meat mafia for not talking and now I get accused of the same thing from Meat. I get it and i'm sorry, but I can't help it.


lol, dfs is sooooo mafia. yell0w has to be town. It was apparent to everyone that tam would shoot yellow. This is why he wasn't roleblocked. If tam had shot yellow the game would have been over. Instead mafia used their roleblock on me just in case i was a role and could do something.


It was apparent he was going to shoot Yellow day1, yet they blocked him. day2 he talked about bunny as possible target, and they didn't block him, which is my point here.
They can possibly be both town, just like you can possibly be bullshiting everyone with your rolecall, but i'm going with what fits better in my mind right now.
And why would mafia target you? You don't stand out (expect for the beginning of the game), at least Bunny is a better target. I don't think a random roleblock makes sense.


Think about it this way. Bunny and Yellow are both town. He was roleblocked n1 to see if mafia could push a mislynch on either yellow tam. N2 Tam is either gonna shoot bunny or yellow, why block him? He isn't pointing his gun at any mafia. We where all suprised that tam didn't bother shooting anyone. So who do you roleblock next? There is no point in roleblocking bunnies, as she was probably put in jail, so there is no point in wasteing a double roleblock on her. Obviously there is no point in roleblocking ritoky who is going to die in the night cause he can't save himself. If we have 4 mafia then out of the 2 people remaining your only roleblock choice is either me or eden.

I've been posting since the begininning of the game as someone who has a role. I.E. posting little but still letting everyone know i've been keeping up with the thread.

Anyway, you chose me over eden, as in because you only had one of us to choose from as their is no point in roleblocking your own mafia, if you think you were going to win during the night. So just roleblock someone who could potentially do something.


Yes, I though of it. That Yell0w mislynch attempt option was too obvious for everyone on day2 so most people left him alone (me included, i was betting on vigi, which, again, was a mistake) and some even though he was clear town.
You were acting like mafia if anything. Power role whould act as much less as mafia as possible, not super quiet and suspicious.
I forgot the fact that Bunny was jailed, so that makes sense. Then again, a random roleblock? Not just random, but on a person who was acting suspicious. A roleblock usualy indicates that that person is town. That's a stupid thing to do if you want an easy misslynch later. So your fake call is a legitimate option in my mind.


What about it was random, if your mafia, you were pretty much guarenteed the win if mtam had shot. If there where 9 people,

we have 4 mafia that you won't role block

so we are down to 5. You are going to kill someone and your not gonna roleblock your kill, so we have 4 people. Bunnies is going to get rollblocked so we are down to 3 people. Your not gonna roleblock yelloW since he is going to die. we are down to 2 people.

AKA me or EDEN, which is hardly random.

I also find it strange that you say gambling on tam was a mistake when killing yell0w would have cost us the game.


Show nested quote +
On May 07 2014 05:50 mtamburini wrote:
On May 07 2014 02:21 dfs wrote:
Well, this sucks.

Meat - roleblocked, which suggests he's town (except if mafia held off their roleblock to call it themselves and appear as town)

mtamburini - wasn't roleblocked, which is interesting, because when it was clear that he's going to shoot Yell0w he was blocked, but when he expressed his thoughts on being paranoic and wanting to shoot Bunny he wasn't blocked (instead it looks like the block was used blindly in the hopes to hit another power role, because no one else called their roles).

Simple conclusion from that alone:
Yell0w - mafia.
Bunny - town.
Meat - can be either.

Now I regret not voting mtamburini first day because he's been useless just like I anticipated. His day 1 vig flip would have given us Yell0w flip earlier as now I am sure he is mafia.

Also I find it a bit ironic that I called Meat mafia for not talking and now I get accused of the same thing from Meat. I get it and i'm sorry, but I can't help it.


You regret not voting on town?

I was refering to day one, when if we'd have lynched tamb (who was being suspected as an sk as well) then we'd have lynched yellow on day 2 (which i believe is mafia) so it would have been a better outcome than what we have now. But it doesn't matter anymore, obviously.

Another thing is, how do you know how many mafia there are? What if there is only 3 mafia, no need to just accept a guess on their number as a given. There was no sk (unless he's still just hiding lol), so there might not be 4 mafia. It's another possibility.
Which makes more sense, because I still don't believe a random roleblock is a good idea when you have such an nice chance to "confirm" yourself as town by fakecalling it. It's too good of a possibility to ignore.

You still think yellow is Mafia? Ok, it's possible that the scum were willing to sacrifice yellow by not roleblocking mtamburini so that mysterymeat could safely fakeclaim getting roleblocked. I'm discarding that line of reasoning though. Every event so far has been designed to put yellow under suspicion and get him shot. First they block mtamburini from shooting him. Then the next day they let him, knowing he is town. This works fine, they don't need to block anyone on the second night because it opens up the way for scum meat to claim he was blocked.

If there was no block, our cop must have results by now. We appear to be at MYLO, we need any alignment information right now. I'm just hoping bunnies isn't our cop.

On May 07 2014 04:03 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
TROLOLOLOL: My coach got temp banned for a week.

This is disgusting, trying to use coach meta to defend yourself? If we're really going to use coach meta, then I don't believe prplhz is your coach if you are town. I think it's iamrobik. I'll just leave it at that because I using coach meta is probably against the rules.

On May 07 2014 03:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
I've been posting since the begininning of the game as someone who has a role. I.E. posting little but still letting everyone know i've been keeping up with the thread.

Why? What were you hoping to gain out of this - trying to absorb hits or roleblocks? Mighty noble of you. Idk if you're the mason and have been playing half of this game out of the thread, but I don't buy it. I've suspected you since day one. The posting little but letting everyone know you're keeping up with the thread is completely mafia behaviour. If you were blue, you wouldn't be be seeking to maintain the pretense of keeping up with the thread. You would be avoiding sticking your neck out, but still trying to contribute.

Right now, I think mysterymeat1 and dfs are defo scum.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 16:44 GMT
#1026
On May 08 2014 00:13 Yell0w wrote:
There isn't a lot of time left and I'm not convinced any of the lynch target right now are mafia, I have this gut feeling that Eden might be mafia so I don't want to listen to him, but also ahs made a pretty solid case against mysterymeat.... But then again they could be a scum team trying to lynch him.

But right now I just want to know why tamburini seems to be considered by everyone to be 100% the vigi when he has done nothing to prove that, he didn't shoot or anything, I think it's possible he was never roleblocked too. Here's an scenario that's, I think, possible, he's scum with meat and claim he was roleblocked night 1 then meat claims he was roleblocked night 2 but none of that actually happened, the roleblock night 1 on tamburini was to make it seems like he was the vigi but he couldn't shoot and the one night 2 was because they were concerned meat was suspicious and we might lynch him so that by making it seems like he was roleblocked by mafia, he wouldn't be a suspect, though clearly that didn't work. Today they have been clearing each other pretty hard and tamburini in both mornings acted really weirdly, asking me why I was alive then asking who was roleblocked before saying if he was roleblocked or not is really strange behavior for a supposedly confirmed town. The only flaw I can see with that plan at first look is the vigi claim was really risky if you're not actually the vigi, maybe he just got lucky and there wasn't a vigi this game.

Anyways, I didn't analyze this thing fully, just something that randomly popped in my head, why is nobody considering the possibility that he isn't vigi? Why didn't they kill him if he's vigi? Why wouldn't he shoot if he's vigi?

As we've deduced that there is no town roleblocker, I think it's very unlikely there's no vig either. If mtamburini isn't the vig, then the real one would have spoken up by now. mtamburini not shooting you last night was ultimately the correct move. He recognised that if there were 4 Mafia, and he shot incorrectly, we would instantly lose.
I wouldn't have killed mtamburini immediately either. Just block him. mtamburini doesn't get to prove himself, he claims roleblock which town has to take with a grain of salt, and it just adds to the confusion. Meanwhile, it frees mafia to kill someone else.

I'm not discounting the possibility that mtamburini pulled off an incredibly audacious claim in the hopes that there was no other vigi. Even if he did it to try and bait the other vigi out, that wouldn't have worked as the vigi could just have quietly shot him during night 1. It's a possibility, but if it's true then well played to him. We're too far gone at this stage to lynch him imo and there are far better candidates.

Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 17:03 GMT
#1029
On May 08 2014 01:49 mtamburini wrote:
Am I the only one that sees the logic behind why meat must be town here based on what has been going on at night!!!!!!

Can you flesh it out for those of us who can't see the logic?
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 19:38 GMT
#1049
Why are you voting drav now when you were talking about lynching mafia power role dfs?

For the record, I did not vote silently, I made a rather long post about you, and voted after that.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 19:41 GMT
#1050
On May 08 2014 04:37 Eden1892 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 03:56 Yell0w wrote:
Wait, what? You think me, dravernor and ahs are all mafia? Didn't I just vote against Dravernor? It's stuff like this that makes me think you're mafia leading town astray. You pushed tamburini day 1, arguing he wasn't mafia or vigi, when maybe you did think he was vigi and wanted to kill him, then you pushed sqrt day 2, who was town. Then you voted for meat, people followed you, now your new reads don't make much sense, but it seems likely we will lynch dravernor if nobody says anything and you don't change your vote, because people follow you, I'm not sure why.

So I'm going to change my vote, people can follow me or not, I think you're scum and it's the second time you put me as scum, both times right after I said I thought you were suspicious, and then when I say I think you're town, you think I'm town too, now THAT's suspicious.

##UNVOTE
##Vote: Eden1892

So what if you did? All that does for me is increase my suspicion that we're at LYLO. If you are mafia, you killing a teammate doesn't bring you any closer to defeat; you still only need to force one mislynch.

If that's a case against me in the first paragraph, I don't understand it. Sounds like you're saying that because I've been trying to get my scum (or in d1 tambo's case anti-town) reads lynched, I'm mafia. Which doesn't make sense at all.

The second paragraph is hella amusing because I was on you before you did anything of note against me d1 and I forgot about you in my initial list of reads from today. If there's one thing that doesn't point to it's "I care about what Yell0w thinks about me." And then in the same post where you vote for me after I call you suspicious, when previously you said it wasn't worth going after me today, you say that I'm suspicious because I'm reacting to you. If anyone's reacting to anyone else here, you're reacting to me.

Yell0w is obviously mafia here y'all, I think I've got our scumteam with dravernor/ashwtini/Yell0w. He's clearly alarmed by the fact that I went from not seriously calling attention to any of them on d2 and thus far in d3 to coming out against all three of them, which is informing his change of heart from "Eden is maybe suspicious but not really worth my time" to "die die die die die."

Mafia yellow makes no sense, why wouldn't they roleblock mtamburini again to keep yellow alive, instead of throwing it seemingly randomly at meat? If you're going to say yellow is mafia, you should throw mtamburini in there too because although ridiculous, that's the only scenario that makes sense.

The fact that you've got two people who I'm sure are town in your list means you're either completely on the wrong track, or you're pushing hard for a mislynch.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 19:42 GMT
#1051
On May 08 2014 04:38 ahswtini wrote:
Why are you voting drav now when you were talking about lynching mafia power role dfs?

For the record, I did not vote silently, I made a rather long post about you, and voted after that.

This post was directed at mysterymeat
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 20:11 GMT
#1058
Ok I'm unvoting for now.

On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....

The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched.

Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list.

Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 21:24 GMT
#1084
On May 08 2014 06:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
ez question epishade.

I think your both scum, but i really want to find the roleblocker. The roleblocker isn't dravernor that much i know for a fact. Right now i'm just choosing between the three of you. THe fact that ahs thinks dfs is definately scum but bandwagoned for drave makes me believe that dfs is scum with power.

Then why aren't you voting for him, despite talkin about it in so many posts today?

I was only voting for drav because there were no votes for dfs, and I didn't want to get accused of making an outlier vote.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 21:41 GMT
#1094
I still suspect meat and dfs. Him pushing dfs as the scum power role makes me think he's just bussing dfs, a vanilla mafia while he's the true roleblocker.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 21:45 GMT
#1098
I'm wondering what the cop has been doing. Getting same-alignment reads that aren't useful for us to know? Surely they checked someone like bunnies on night one and then a scummy player last night...
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 22:02 GMT
#1121
welp
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 22:03 GMT
#1124
On May 08 2014 07:02 mtamburini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 06:50 27ninjabunnies wrote:
If there is a cop, he could have been on two deads and therefore isnt coming out today....

Or he has actual good checks and just being a donkey.

And I'm not terrible reading people.

Dravenor hasn't done much for town this game besides lurking, blitz voting, etc.

If we lose, so be it. I realize this is a newbie game, but seriously.


Lack of effort by me to im disappointed in myself.

DIDNT EVEN GET TOO SHOOT MY GUN

Game isn't over yet
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 22:05 GMT
#1132
Shoot dfs tonight
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 22:08 GMT
#1137
On May 08 2014 07:07 Eden1892 wrote:
Could be okay with vig hitting ahs but I'm really confident Yell0w is mafia

You are so confidently off-track I don't think you can possibly be scum
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 07 2014 22:23 GMT
#1141
I'm pretty sure if we lynched incorrectly, scum would have let us know about it by now.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22209 Posts
May 08 2014 06:06 GMT
#1160
Can you shoot dfs tonight and not me so that we don't immediately lose after finally gaining some ground?
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
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