|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p
I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards?
|
On January 30 2013 22:26 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards?
Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax.
We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that.
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 30 2013 22:28 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 22:26 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards? Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax. We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that.
I still don't understand at all what that means for double lynch. Mafia hope I might get lynched so we don't use the double lynch? What's the connection I'm missing?
|
On January 30 2013 22:30 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 22:28 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 22:26 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards? Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax. We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that. I still don't understand at all what that means for double lynch. Mafia hope I might get lynched so we don't use the double lynch? What's the connection I'm missing?
with you being dead we can't use the doublelynch anymore, can't we?
Give them a straw they can hold on to, just to crush them afterwards :3
I mean whatever, doesn't make that much of a difference. Don't think mafia will just ignore us anyways.
|
OH WAIT, it's us voting for doublelynch that activates the double-lynch and not you as mayor saying I want to doublelynch.
Massive derpmoment. Screw everything I said.
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 30 2013 23:06 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 22:30 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 22:28 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 22:26 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards? Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax. We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that. I still don't understand at all what that means for double lynch. Mafia hope I might get lynched so we don't use the double lynch? What's the connection I'm missing? with you being dead we can't use the doublelynch anymore, can't we? Give them a straw they can hold on to, just to crush them afterwards :3 I mean whatever, doesn't make that much of a difference. Don't think mafia will just ignore us anyways.
This isn't how I read the OP at all, double-lynch is simply voted for by town as a whole and requires a majority. It seems prudent to me to lynch off the not-confirmed list as quickly as possible, no? Does saving it for later have any particular purpose?
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
Ninjad. So anyway, let's double lynch tomorrow.
On January 30 2013 19:34 AxleGreaser wrote:
Which might explain why I didn't vote for double Lynch.
Also curious what Axle means by this, given Toad's entire premise for not double-lynching was incorrect.
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 29 2013 20:57 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 20:05 Toadesstern wrote:On January 29 2013 19:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
Toad, why double lynch? because there's 3 people I want dead as fast as possible: Annul, mkfuba, Axle. Just finished a 20 hour shift. I'm not opposed to anyone in this list dying. Still want to kill Vivax for his play this game. Ill be back in the morning when i'm more coherent.
On January 31 2013 00:34 Adam4167 wrote:
##Vote Axlegreaser
##Vote Double Lynch
Ninja votes, promises to contribute without doing so.
Hi Adam.
|
I understand what you're saying about annul, marv (sorry for missing your previous post about the topic XD). It makes me nervous, since I was really, really confident yesterday. That and the fact that everything annul's said so far after I posted it has been straight up complimenting me. However, I still think he's town. After a quick dash through his filter, this quote stuck out as additional reason to believe he was sincere:
On January 28 2013 16:35 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2013 16:07 Toadesstern wrote:
See that's why we lynched both and not BKE + the 5th read... It was possible to screw up and we did screw up. This way mafia is still at 1 KP permanently because we can only screw up once :p
Anyways that meanas mafia doublestacked Bugs.
That also means there's 2 people we have to look out for.
I don't like Annuls question about mad hatters and wether their bomb would explode when lynched to be honest.
Not that I know the answer, but I would know the answer because I would have asked the host about that way earlier if I were a madhatter.
Should have voted for doublelynch so we can go after 2 people. That way we again would have made sure that we at least hit one guy...
ALSO:
I'm probably not going to tell you what to do with your medic protection tonight. i was never in danger of getting lynched. it was never relevant to me.
The question he asked about hatters isn't something I would expect a lying scum to ask in thread, and the response to toad's suspicion is equally unexpected from someone pretending to be town. I don't really know what to make of his vote on yamato. I guess as scum he could just be throwing his vote down somewhere it won't gain any traction, but he could have just jumped on any of the easier lynch candidates. It's kind of an unreasonable vote as either scum or town, but there's that added level of "why would scum annul pick yamato if he KNOWS he's town"? Yes, I can see how his play the entire game could be an elaborate trick, but I don't think it is.
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
What do you make of Clarity and Adam, fuba?
|
for the record, nothing ive said has been complimenting you specifically. i merely said two things: 1. that your "town annul" analysis was my exact play and explained in different words than i have been explaining, 2. that your analyses were very pro-town (in my attack on axle). both of my comments have been in praise of your analysis of my play, irrespective of anything else.
|
That's true, it just made me a bit nervous even though it was pretty much exactly what I wanted to hear XD
In class, but I've been looking through clarity/adam's filters. They've both kind of slid under my radar most of the game. In the beginning it was because of clarity's thread presence, but later it was because at a certain point I just started with DS/toad's lists and worked my way down. Do you remember why DS had <1% scum on his last spreadsheet?
Class just got out early, so I've gotta move. I will say that after reading the filters straight through I'm not sure where the incredibly strong town read came from.
|
Should be able to kick back into gear tomorrow or Fri.
Still interested in yamato's differentiation of Axle and I.
Thought I had remembered some people wavering on BKE/Chez yesterday, was specifically interested in people who wavered on BKE. Turns out everyone voted for him but mocsta, who moved his votes off to do something else and flipped townie. Vivax and Axle both left him but came back, and some of that was dealing with formatting of the double vote and unvoting. But Vivax was the only person who posted really doubting BKE's mafiosity, and I would like to hear why - On January 28 2013 00:41 Vivax wrote:
Wouldn't even be surprised if BKE flips town at this point. Senor Vivax, why wouldn't you have been surprised?
I actually like the idea of not double-lynching tomorrow. In my head it's a solid tool to have around at the very end, to be able to force a double lynch when the candidates are far, far fewer means that mafia has to do a lot more scrambling and can't get 2 mislynches as easily. Just don't think it's as useful a tool right now as it will be later on. Does anyone actually think it's MORE useful tomorrow than later? If so, why?
|
Like...13 alive, 11/2 split. Voting power is either 13/2 or 11/4. We're not in danger of hitting endgame, we're not in danger of mafia 5T leaping out from behind the curtain and stealing a lynch.
Why double lynch NOW, when the odds are 11/2, versus waiting? Long game may get boring/suck/kill the thread, but we're squandering a resource if we lynch at 9/2 or 10/1 (assuming a NK goes through).
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
The odds aren't 11/2, unless you really think some of the townies have a decent chance of flipping mafia.
There's only a certain number of people I'm lynching into, and I know who I want to lynch tomorrow. Plus with a double lynch tomorrow we can revive a bit of flagging interest, and town can really debate a target, rather than me (and toad) ruling by diktat.
Not being funny but like 90% of town hasn't had a say in a lynch really all game, and I think tomorrow's a pretty good time to do so.
|
On January 31 2013 06:13 FiveTouch wrote:
The odds aren't 11/2, unless you really think some of the townies have a decent chance of flipping mafia.
There's only a certain number of people I'm lynching into, and I know who I want to lynch tomorrow. Plus with a double lynch tomorrow we can revive a bit of flagging interest, and town can really debate a target, rather than me (and toad) ruling by diktat.
Not being funny but like 90% of town hasn't had a say in a lynch really all game, and I think tomorrow's a pretty good time to do so. Yeah, the subjective odds are different, and I can take myself out, and all that jazz.
But I'm skeptical that a double lynch is going to create oodles of discussion, a lot of us that aren't saying much also didn't say much on our earlier double lynch day (at least about lynch targets), and more skeptical that the value of any extra discussion is higher during the next cycle than one ... 2 or 3 down the road.
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 31 2013 06:17 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:13 FiveTouch wrote:
The odds aren't 11/2, unless you really think some of the townies have a decent chance of flipping mafia.
There's only a certain number of people I'm lynching into, and I know who I want to lynch tomorrow. Plus with a double lynch tomorrow we can revive a bit of flagging interest, and town can really debate a target, rather than me (and toad) ruling by diktat.
Not being funny but like 90% of town hasn't had a say in a lynch really all game, and I think tomorrow's a pretty good time to do so. Yeah, the subjective odds are different, and I can take myself out, and all that jazz. But I'm skeptical that a double lynch is going to create oodles of discussion, a lot of us that aren't saying much also didn't say much on our earlier double lynch day (at least about lynch targets), and more skeptical that the value of any extra discussion is higher during the next cycle than one ... 2 or 3 down the road.
You were skeptical about gonzaw being mafia because there were no mason claims from people he'd talked to, despite the overwhelming evidence that was his lack of trying to help town when he was outed.
I rather say I prefer my judgement on the dynamics and feel of a thread than yours, because you tend to put the emphasis on the wrong things.
The last double lynch was decided pretty much before the day arrives, this one is not. Do you know which 2 players we're going to lynch tomorrow? Maybe you can guess, but everyone has different opinions. On Day/Night 2 BKE/Chez was getting pretty damn certain already.
So yeah, I think it will force town to be active at this point tomorrow, whereas town has kinda died a bit of a death today, and I think that's a good thing. And I want to eliminate people I think are possibly mafia asap.
|
On January 31 2013 06:21 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:17 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:13 FiveTouch wrote:
The odds aren't 11/2, unless you really think some of the townies have a decent chance of flipping mafia.
There's only a certain number of people I'm lynching into, and I know who I want to lynch tomorrow. Plus with a double lynch tomorrow we can revive a bit of flagging interest, and town can really debate a target, rather than me (and toad) ruling by diktat.
Not being funny but like 90% of town hasn't had a say in a lynch really all game, and I think tomorrow's a pretty good time to do so. Yeah, the subjective odds are different, and I can take myself out, and all that jazz. But I'm skeptical that a double lynch is going to create oodles of discussion, a lot of us that aren't saying much also didn't say much on our earlier double lynch day (at least about lynch targets), and more skeptical that the value of any extra discussion is higher during the next cycle than one ... 2 or 3 down the road. You were skeptical about gonzaw being mafia because there were no mason claims from people he'd talked to, despite the overwhelming evidence that was his lack of trying to help town when he was outed. I rather say I prefer my judgement on the dynamics and feel of a thread than yours, because you tend to put the emphasis on the wrong things. The last double lynch was decided pretty much before the day arrives, this one is not. Do you know which 2 players we're going to lynch tomorrow? Maybe you can guess, but everyone has different opinions. On Day/Night 2 BKE/Chez was getting pretty damn certain already. So yeah, I think it will force town to be active at this point tomorrow, whereas town has kinda died a bit of a death today, and I think that's a good thing. And I want to eliminate people I think are possibly mafia asap.
Alright, fair enough. I'd agree that the two double lynches will be different (and that I've been incorrect on most everything so far this game, for not-great reasons).
I'm still in favor of holding it for later though, and I wish there was more actual discussion on either day about double lynching, instead of blind votes.
|
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
There's no real reason to hold it for later. Mafia have a whole list of pseudo-confirmed townies that they can hit that we are never going to lynch.
I'd rather have these players alive and able to talk about things tomorrow than not.
|
On January 31 2013 06:34 FiveTouch wrote:
There's no real reason to hold it for later. Mafia have a whole list of pseudo-confirmed townies that they can hit that we are never going to lynch.
I'd rather have these players alive and able to talk about things tomorrow than not. Mafia has 1 KP max. They're not magically dropping a list of players overnight.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
