TL Mafia LIX - Page 187

On January 30 2013 10:18 debears wrote:


So sure they are town are you?

On January 30 2013 08:40 annul wrote:
yeah, mafia have to achieve one less mislynch, so they get a jack, gf, at least 2 masons, and probably an rb and framer, right?

On January 30 2013 14:31 BinOnFire wrote:
Why did you just explain for him?
also, who do you want to lynch and why?

On January 30 2013 15:25 AxleGreaser wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Without commenting on the accuracy or presence or lack of holes in your argument.

Why did you make it, or more specifically why did you post it in the thread?

On January 30 2013 14:49 mkfuba07 wrote:
I explained for him because he wasn't doing a good job explaining it himself. It's dumb to waste time thinking about lynching town, and some people are significantly misunderstanding him. This includes vivax, yamato, toad, and marv. These are people I don't want focusing on someone who isn't flipping scum. They've driven the conversation for most of the game, and this is my way to keep them on track.

Do you agree, or disagree with my conclusion?

As for who I want to lynch today, I'm not completely sure, if you can believe that. I've been on this annul/austin/axle filterdive for the last day or so and it's got me questioning some previous light townreads. My vote has been on axle since this morning following toad's posts, but I feel myself inching away from voting for him. I took down some posts during class that I wanted to respond to, so I'll get those up eventually. If I had to say who I feel most likely to flip scum at the moment, I would say austin.

On January 30 2013 19:34 AxleGreaser wrote:
Which might explain why I didn't vote for double Lynch.

On January 30 2013 14:22 mkfuba07 wrote:
Annul
So there are two scenarios, either Annul told the truth and he’s town, or he lied and he’s scum. We’re actually somewhat fortunate in that his alignment comes down to a single decision in the game. I feel a lot of confusion in the thread regarding what he says he did. This is his explanation, as I believe many/some people understand it:

1. N2 he believed it was clear that BKE and Chezinu would flip scum
   
2. He decided to place his bomb on Chezinu, in case he was shot that night, stalling Chezinu’s lynch so we could lynch BKE (believed to be 99% scum by most) and some other suspicious individual

Now is this the work of town annul, or scum annul? Let’s start with scum.
What does scum Annul know?
He knows Chezinu is scum, and BKE is town. He knows he is not actually a Mad Hatter, and can only appear as one a maximum of one time (if the final scum is the framer). He also knows that he breadcrumbed Mad Hatter from the beginning of the game for some reason.
Who would he choose to “bomb”?
Chezinu, of course.
What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)?
Given that he knows BKE is town, he knows that town is likely headed for a mislynch D3. Probably two, if he is able to switch people off of Chez. He knows he will look quite suspicious if he succeeds in his ploy. He would be in much the same position he is now. So many people were sure of Chez’s scumminess that, having saved him the previous day and leading town to two mislynches, Annul would be right up there with him. They would have one more KP that night, but they would likely sacrifice both their lives. If he failed, what has happened, happens. It becomes known that he tried to save (likely) scum. He has, at most, one night of safety from DT checks. He has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself, and has earned nothing from it.

Now let’s look at town Annul.
What does town Annul know?
He knows he is Mad Hatter. He knows that he finds BKE and Chezinu both to be incredibly likely scum.
Who would he choose to bomb?
Doesn’t matter, because town Annul thinks they’re both scum.
What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)?
If he fails, he loses his bomb, and two scum flip (oops). Town might be suspicious of him because of it, but nowhere near as much as we were today due to the BKE flip (oops). But if he succeeds, then he's given town the opportunity to lynch an additional person D3. Whether or not the second person is scum, the KP would still be reduced to 1 permanently because we were still lynching BKE (oops). In addition, town has effectively taken Chezinu hostage, guaranteeing annul's survival as long as Chezinu is alive. That would be 3 guaranteed townies who couldn't be NK'd (FT, toad, and annul) and one "free" scum, leaving us in that 0.000001% situation annul mentioned when he claimed.

You will note that all three times I wrote (oops) were times his assumption of BKE flipping scum screwed him over. This perfectly explains why he says his only mistake was BKE.

I don't believe that scum annul would risk his own life to save Chezinu given what he would have known. The pros don't outweigh the cons, as he looks suspicious either way. The town annul explanation is far more feasible. I'm about 95% more inclined to believe that town annul had a significant oversight and had trouble explaining himself than I am to believe that scum annul risked his life quite blatantly to save someone who ultimately was likely going to be lynched anyway. Add to that other small things, like the fact that he breadcrumbed his role, and that he could have gotten gonzaw elected but kept his vote on himself, and I think it's pretty conclusive.

So, the way I understand the situation is more like this:

1. He asked for the towniest scumreads he could find (those of toad, FT, DS, and oats)
   
2. He agreed with them that BKE and Chez would flip scum
   
3. He placed his bomb on Chezinu because he was sure they were both scum. Even if the lynch gained from annul's bomb was a mislynch, one questionable townie was taken off the list, and BKE was a pretty sure thing (oops). In any case, that day's lynch would still leave them at 1-2 scum remaining, eliminating one of the KP for sure (oops).
   
4. Because annul's bomb was on Chezinu, we would have had another guaranteed townie, who would have been unable to die unless scum wanted to take Chezinu down with him.

On January 30 2013 01:45 FiveTouch wrote:


There's not that much to say about it because it's essentially correct. I still think he might be town, but I'll feel exceptionally dumb if he turns out to be mafia. It's like he's actively sabotaging himself and I don't understand the mafia motivation for doing so. The whole mad hatter thing drew massive amounts of attention to himself. Was it really worth it for possibly having one extra KP, when even this wasn't likely at all? Why make the play at all? It makes me tentatively lean on townie doing some really fucking stupid things instead.

On January 28 2013 01:25 FiveTouch wrote:
Because no-one is confirmed red until they flip. Not prplhz, not gonzaw, not BKE, and not Chezinu.

On January 30 2013 01:57 FiveTouch wrote:


This is precisely why I told you no-one is confirmed red until they flip. We must lynch our strongest scumreads, because we need to know what they flip for certain. That's why we had to lynch Chezinu, it's really obvious.

As for the BKE lynch, do you really think the other two mafia would stick their neck out to defend him? That's an absurd notion.

On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:


Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit?