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On January 16 2013 03:29 zarepath wrote:
SnoMan, I'm at work and jumping into the thread between tasks, so my reaction to your analysis is going to be a little piece-meal.
1. Glad you thought my analysis was good and fine -- that has been my largest contribution to the thread and took the most time
2. My analysis of Acid isn't bad at all. What's the town motivation for his posting behavior? And I don't just mean lurking, I mean spending his small amount of posts stubbornly going after someone who already has a lot of attention on them, and doing so not with analysis but with attitude, and while there are other subjects for analysis?
I'll just link you to my original reply, which you either missed or willfully ignored: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=391615¤tpage=30#600
The town motivation behind this? I wanted to pressure Mocsta into giving me a straight answer instead of the vagueness he had been spouting thus far.
I also wanted to pressure Zebezt and have other townies look into his filter/behavior so they could either back me up or show me why I was misguided.
There was only one person who did this, and he was killed last night.
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On January 16 2013 05:22 Acid~ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2013 21:40 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Acid
I had assumed that when you did start posting, you would be continuing that pattern from now on. The Stuff you posted was seemed good, but you still have the smallest filter.
I know this is a backflip since you weren't on my list of people under pressure, but your complete lack of activity is giving you the smallest filter, and a town shouldn't feel that he needs to be pressed into doing town activity. I want to see more from you, so while this is a vote that does have intention to lynch, it is conditional in that I will remove it the second you start contributing properly again.
##Vote: Acid I'm fine with having the smallest filter. For now, I'm reading. I don't feel the need to make you privy to my every inane thought, so when I have something useful to say I will post. Until then, since nothing has changed in this regard: ##Vote: Zebezt
We'd rather be privy to your every thought, it helps us Identify who is and isn't mafia.
It also helps that I think you make decent reads, but you don't make enough... So I'd like to hear more. Lots more. I'm willing to bet that you *will* get lynched tonight if you don't post more analysis, and thats a shame because town can't afford many more mislynches (2 more mislynches = GG right now)
I'd also like to hear why Zebezt is *more* scummy than any other person (Trotske? zare? Laguerta? etc). Saying "nothing has changed" simply isn't true when we have had 1 mislynch and 2 townies NK'ed since you last gave any reasons.
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On January 16 2013 05:30 Acid~ wrote:
I also wanted to pressure Zebezt and have other townies look into his filter/behavior so they could either back me up or show me why I was misguided.
There was only one person who did this, and he was killed last night.
I've looked at zebezt's filter, and I wasn't impressed. However, I didn't see anything that screamed scum, and as I've said before there are so many townies playing this poorly that its nigh-impossible (for me) to really differentiate between bad townie and scum right now. Lots of other filters look dirty as well, and I'm guessing SOMEBODY on scum has been careful and kept a cleanish one, although 1 at a time is probably the right way to scumhunt.
If you want to pick out posts and go through them (possibly with context if needed) that are uniquely scummy, go ahead. Your previous post didn't do much of that.
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On January 16 2013 03:14 zebezt wrote:
Bleh.. Forgot I had to go out tonight.
Good thing I already answered most questions..
My thoughts on Trotske before I go:
I don't see many quality posts by him. At first he seems to like me (yay) later he changes his mind and puts a FoS on me stating I don't contribute that much. Weird turnaround, but not too scummy. He doesnt like Spag either saying Spag is only about finding lurkers. Seems a bit unfair since Spag has said this is mostly for the first days.
besides that he hasnt said anything much at all. Many 1 line posts. Not a big contributor for sure.
Why are you trying to discredit me? because I put a FoS on you?
Your post is like the definition of ad-homiem.
Also I never said I liked you, I assume you are referring to this post
+ Show Spoiler +On January 14 2013 08:55 Trotske wrote:@Acid How is Zebezt a better lynch than sn0_man. Also your post + Show Spoiler +On January 14 2013 08:34 Acid~ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 08:24 Mocsta wrote:
Lol so u come in the thread after 40hrs of no post and start slinging shit.
Why dont u start to earn some town cred before questioning myself and zebezt.
U can start by addressing the questions i and others put forward to you in your prolonged absence.
U will then be in a position where i can respond to your qustions. There were no questions that were "put to me", you just asked me to post and I did. So, now I have to "earn" town cred before I'm allowed to play? Oh please, pretty please, can I play with you Mr mayor? I find this attitude pretty fucking hypocritical coming from a guy who attacked someone else earlier supposedly because they were intimidating others into not participating. This shit you're trying to pull right there, not only is it exactly the kind of behavior you attacked in others, it's also textbook ad-hominem. So, please, with sugar on top, answer the fucking question. Maybe you'll manage to post your first line of useful content. seemed to be aimed at getting people emotional near the lynch deadline and you need to stop it now because that won't help people make informed lynch decisions. that post was 100% pointless unless you want to get people emotional.
I was asking why he put a vote on you when I thought sn0_man had some scummy traits that you didn't even though you both had the same amount of activity.
As for spag Just because it is his first day doesn't mean he gets to act like Day1 when there are a bunch of real day1 posts to go through. Thanks for your input on him though.
I would still like some more talk about spag and zebezt.
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On January 16 2013 05:39 Trotske wrote:
I would still like some more talk about spag and zebezt.
Then talk. I've openly stated that I don't like zebezt's filter, but that equally other people (like you) have scummy filters too and that town are simply misplaying this game, if nothing else due to a lack of detailed analysis and general activity. If you see anything specific that you would like to point out, or even re-emphasize (preferably with quotes, maybe some contrast with "valuable" posts...), I for one would LOVE to hear it. If not, I don't have any nails to put in the coffin zebezt is constructing for himself so I'll just leave it be.
My thoughts on spag: I could totally see him being part of a fairly specific scum team but I can't see him getting lynched any time soon so I'm not wasting my time. If nothing else, he is stimulating posts which are a resource town MUST HAVE to win. And all his posts look townie, you have to be really skeptical/hypothetical to see a scum underlay. Too much "master plan/conspiracy theory" not enough "hey look its obvious he is scum" for me to make a real case against him.
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On January 16 2013 05:55 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 16 2013 05:39 Trotske wrote:
I would still like some more talk about spag and zebezt. Then talk. I've openly stated that I don't like zebezt's filter, but that equally other people (like you) have scummy filters too and that town are simply misplaying this game, if nothing else due to a lack of detailed analysis and general activity. If you see anything specific that you would like to point out, or even re-emphasize (preferably with quotes, maybe some contrast with "valuable" posts...), I for one would LOVE to hear it. If not, I don't have any nails to put in the coffin zebezt is constructing for himself so I'll just leave it be. My thoughts on spag: I could totally see him being part of a fairly specific scum team but I can't see him getting lynched any time soon so I'm not wasting my time. If nothing else, he is stimulating posts which are a resource town MUST HAVE to win. And all his posts look townie, you have to be really skeptical/hypothetical to see a scum underlay. Too much "master plan/conspiracy theory" not enough "hey look its obvious he is scum" for me to make a real case against him.
Thanks for the advice I'll try to go in depth once I get home from work.
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First! Vote Count:
Votes not in the proper format will NOT be counted. EVERYONE is required to vote.
Acid~(1): Spaghetticus
Zebezt(1): Acid~
Not Voting (9):
Currently Acid~ is set so be lynched! 25 hours until lynch deadline. If I got your vote wrong, make sure to pm me. The lynch deadline is 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
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Wow quite a few didnt post over the usa/europe shift.
Omnieulogy never seen u post nothing meaningful in a 24hr period before? Whats going on... Actually im not even sure if u posted meaningfully during night 1...
I want to see more from u. The past 48hrs migh een classify u as LURKING
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On January 15 2013 16:24 zebezt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2013 16:00 Mocsta wrote:
(1)
Mocsta - This can be discounted. We were both pressuring each other, and he got over emotional and turned suspicion into a vote.
Nice way to discount yourself there  I suspect his vote on me had something to do with me calling his play idiotic as well... Anyway, Oats' death comes as a bit of a surprise to me. If I was scum I would try to get rid of the most influential townies. You fit this bill much more than Oats. The fact that you didn't get NK'ed makes you look suspicious
I suspect his vote on you comes from reading your filter after I posted an accusation on you. In fact, I don't suspect it, I know it because he said so himself:
On January 15 2013 01:20 Oatsmaster wrote:
5. Voted Zebezt, its cause of Acid that I looked at his filter, so scummy. pushed his lynch until the deadline.
So everyone, read zebezt filter. Dont be lazy.
And more for the road, from his LW:
On January 15 2013 08:47 Oatsmaster wrote:9. Zebezt. + Show Spoiler +Scummy as fuck. His post either contain strategy or sheeping Mocsta's reads. He seems utterly disengaged from the game and has shown no effort to confirm his reads as scum and ask questions.
I would like it if you didn't try to refute an attack against you by discrediting the attacker:
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On January 16 2013 05:33 Sn0_Man wrote:
I'd also like to hear why Zebezt is *more* scummy than any other person (Trotske? zare? Laguerta? etc). Saying "nothing has changed" simply isn't true when we have had 1 mislynch and 2 townies NK'ed since you last gave any reasons.
I meant nothing has changed in regard to him being my number 1 scum read. In fact, his actions since the lynch convinced me even more.
I have a detailed post coming about Zebezt, Trotske and zare. Don't think I haven't looked at them too. Laguerta... there's really not much to go on right now. I really hope his replacement shows up before the end of Day 2.
I don't like to make "promise-posts" but I need to do a lot more re-reading before posting my thoughts on trotske and zarepath.
If you really want my every thought: I started by looking into Mocsta, because there were a lot of inconsistencies between his promises (I will build rational cases without emotions) and his actions (making emotion-based cases on everyone who challenged him). I spent two hours reading his filter and interactions, and based on his day1 only I would call for a lynch.
But, since he hammered the noose for Mandalor, he has changed his play. In fact he has made a good case on zarepath, which I am reviewing and will discuss in my upcoming long post.
So, right now to me he could be confused town or scum, 50-50. I want to see more of his new play before taking a stance. If he starts to lurk, I will be the first to call for his head.
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On January 16 2013 05:30 Acid~ wrote:
I also wanted to pressure Zebezt and have other townies look into his filter/behavior so they could either back me up or show me why I was misguided.
There was only one person who did this, and he was killed last night.
Near the start of Night 1; I had 3 or 4 posts with Oatsmaster where he was upholding your perspective, and I was trying to provide alternative perspectives for the behaviour. So Oatsmaster was NOT the only person.
I am also the person who asked whether he was looking into Zebezt because of your suspicions - in fact I asked him twice.
I am not against anyone questioning/pressuring their scum read. Its what we need to do.
Right now.. I look at the situation we are 24hrs into Day2, and there is no lead candidate for the lynch.
My case so far has been on zarepath:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=391615¤tpage=32#622
He has since addressed my concerns, but I need to read through that more critically before commenting.
My question is: Acid~
If zarepath convinces me he is town from his defense.
Are you sure zebezt is the best candidate to campaign for Day 2?
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Your case on zarepath is the same case I could make against you.
In fact, his defense is convincing - his argument for lack of time makes sense and could explain why he hasn't held himself up to the high standard he required. Additionally, he shared some interesting reads at the end of N1.
You don't have that luxury, however. You can't blame lack of time and you actively went against your stated intentions (rational, constructive cases) by being emotionally defensive and attacking everyone who disagreed with you.
I'm not sure about you. The amount of inconsistencies between your actions and your words is staggering, yet I am hesitant to call for your lynch based only on that. I'm missing a link. I'm hoping today's lynch will provide that link, whether it absolves or incriminates you.
This said, to answer your question:
Yes.
I think, very simply, that scum whacked Oats to silence him. He wasn't ranting and raving about Zebezt, or even voting for him, but still you could see him getting increasingly suspicious. His last will even tells us that we should all read Zebezt's filter. I have done so, and like I said I will share all my thoughts in an upcoming post but the short of it is yes, I have a major scum read on Zebezt and a minor scum read on Trotske.
I don't buy zarepath as scum yet.
I will try to stay curteous and polite as I say this, but I think you might be OMGUSing him because of what he said earlier about you having a lot to answer for. I think you should read his filter again with an open mind, be wary of confirmation bias.
In the end, I did not pull the trigger on your case because I could not find sufficient scum motivation for acting this way. I ask that you do the same of zarepath before you pull the trigger on him. Instead of asking him "what is the town motivation for X?", ask yourself "what is the scum motivation for X?" and if you can come up with an answer, post about it and we will discuss.
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On January 16 2013 05:13 zarepath wrote:
I feel better about him as a town read than anybody else but myself, to be honest, save for the fact that he hasn't posted for a while now.
Sorry! I blew my power bar with a new heater and had to go buy a new one (and return the heater). I'm catching up now and I'll get right back into things 
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@zarepath
Thanks for the defense against my character analysis.
I think most of the points are sound and you have addressed this adequately enough so you are off my scum list for now.
I will say 2 final points on this though.
(1)
You mentioned you want to participate more. I will be tracking this. Many have said it, and many have not followed through. (obviously situations like Omni with the circuit breaker meltdown don't count)
(2)
Regardless of you and Acid~ thinking the analysis is OMGUS. I stand by it not being. In particular with the "bomb", I don't think its appropriate to let fly a bunch of accusations, and then walk away without clarifying it further, or asking pressure questions. To let others do the dirty work is not solid town play in my opinion.
I hope that you can this commentary as constructive feedback, and work to not do it again.
In short: If you don't like someones play, sure.. call out their behaviour, but at least support the claim there and then as well.
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On January 16 2013 10:00 Acid~ wrote:
I don't buy zarepath as scum yet.
As I noted to zarepath above this post, his defense detailed rational answers to my queries. Hes off my list for the time being.
I need to re-read filters, and find my next target. I will probably read zebezt filter last, to remove any tunneled thoughts of guilt.
I will post again some stage later today with collected thoughts, and present who I think is the most suitable candidate for Day2 lynch.
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well... my computer turns on / off every 20ish minutes... I think one of the cords got damaged and keeps over heating... I'll try to fix this problem asap and I've let the host know in the case that I need to be replaced. Really sorry about this guys.
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*sigh* thats unfortunate Omni.. hopefully it all works out for you. Best of luck
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My review of Sn0_Man’s review of Zarepath’s review
I know this isn’t the most important topic to comment on, but I feel I’ve got some things to say here. By reviewing a review I effectively get to appraise two people with one post. I will make up for it soon with some OC I promise.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:
I am posting all of my reads right now because I'd like to do so before the end of N1 and I'm not confident that I'll be around/have the time to do so closer to the deadline. These are reads, not full claims, and so I welcome any argument/discussion about them. But they're all based on me reading through the entire thread, and the entire filter for each person.
Hi guys I've contributed nothing but I'm totally worried about being NK'd for no reason that I can think of. Probably worried about being Vigi'd? Dunno but this post seems a bit weird. Not seriously off though, I can see townie zare writing this
A will is always a good thing to post. While I can’t begin to imagine why he would be night-killed, I don’t see any scum motive behind this decision so it is irrelevant.
Laguerta + Show Spoiler +
He just seems very rough, and very inactive, but not in a tone that seems to imply intended inactivity, but one of pure laziness. It's clear he did not work very hard at his contributions Day 1, and that, combined with the ease of the Laguerta Lynch, suggests to me that he is TOWN.
I'm still unsure that lag is town. He is/was merely a terrible player (see TeMil last game)
Laguerta was a smurf. I can’t see a reason why a smurf would come into a thread and be as lazy as he was unless it was calculated. This calculation could have been prior to rolling his alignment, but I doubt he was as shit as he seemed.
Are we allowed to know who the smurf was owned by
If we can find out who the smurf was, we can make an informed decision as to whether they would lurk in game. It could be Threesr coming back for more, but I think it’s more likely it’s some vet that wanted to fuck with us.
+ Show Spoiler +
Sn0_Man
His inactivity immediately puts him on the side of scum, then he has a full "review post" of the chaotic final hour of the lynch. His cases have not been rigorous, his biggest case (against Troske) involves a lot of association and hypothetical scenarios. But he's the only one really pushing Troske and it does seem like he's trying to figure things out. I don't see enough to put him firmly in one camp or the other, so I consider him someone to watch.
Wheee its me. I'm not gonna comment on other's reads except that "inactivity puts him on the side of scum" isn't right. Lurkers aren't helping town, but that doesn't necessarily make them scum (just bad town).
Zarepath is right in thinking that lurking = scummy. It’s not 100% chance (the game would be too easy), but lurkers are more likely to be scum than active town. There is little reason for a scum team to have more than one active member, and it’s worse to mislynch an active townie than it is to mislynch a lurker. On top of this, Zare’s post soft-pressures people not to lurk, which is more townish than not doing so. Zare was right to note your lurkiness, but fortunately for all involved, you have reversed this trend so it is no longer a factor.
+ Show Spoiler +Oats I voted for him yesterday, but after going through his filter today, he oddly seems to be the most valuable townie we have right now. He has pressured more people than anyone else, which HAS led to discussion. I don't see scum motivations for his behavior other than the free use of his voting power, and erratically switching it around until he finally liked where it rested. That seems to fit with his play style, however, so I don't think that is enough for a scum read, even along with the fact that he was immediately aggressive towards Mocsta -- that seems to be a trend in this game, and it's not necessarily unwarranted. Feels like TOWN In light of the NK, its clear what Oats had been doing all along. I too feel like this 180 by zare *could* be a case of "oh we are NK'ing him? time to get buddy buddy" but it certainly isn't proof. We now interrupt our regular programming to bring you his previous vote for Oats: + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2013 12:35 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Oatsmaster
Has not been helpful towards town, was an active scum player in another game (so not necessarily a lurker scum), has unvoted FOUR times, most recently very late in the day when it was almost assured that Laguerta would be lynched regardless. His reasoning? "He's scummy but he's not here to defend himself. I'm gonna go vote for someone that nobody else is voting for and will definitely not get lynched, so when Laguerta flips town, I look good." (Okay, so not his literal read, but a possible motivation was thrown in there.)
His timing and his lack of reasoning worry me, and I find him to be far more likely to be scum than Laguerta.
This is a massive backflip and should garner attention. I’m not sure if Zarepath has responded to this as I have not read past the post I am responding to yet, but if he hasn’t he bloody well should. I can see both a town and scum explanation for this, just as you have outlined Sn0, but this does increase my read on Zare somewhat.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:
Mocsta
Has been as active as I would expect based on his meta, but he is a lot more defensive this time around. After reading filters, I would suggest that's because there are people here deliberately pushing his buttons. It's frustrating how his various defenses clutter the thread and half the time are filled with re-quotes of himself or others, and then there's also the fact that his vote sealed Mandalor's doom. However, I don't find it likely that mafia would switch their vote so that the FINAL vote for a lynch is one of their own. That does not seem like good scum play -- although as I noted earlier, if he were scum and resting his vote on Laguerta even after Oats yelled at him, that may look more suspicious. Perhaps he HAD to vote for Mandalor. However, he'd already suspected Mandalor earlier in the day. So I would not call him a confirmed town, but I still have an overall TOWN read on him.
Seems like an honest assessment. If I'm scum though, I'm calling Mocsta town 10/10 because again I think he is kidna making their lives easier.
I think you (Sn0) overestimate how much Mocsta by himself damages town. It may be true that he threw one game away, but the forward trajectory he lends town is valuable. He might be in a bit of a rut ATM due to harsh assessment, but as town I will always decide to keep him around until at least day 3 or 4 (not a soft-claim, when I am town I always keep Mocsta around despite our in-fighting). I actually like Zare’s initial post more than your response to it. Nobody called anyone 10/10 town, and Zare’s post is actually a very clear analysis that I can’t find anything to add to.
+ Show Spoiler +
OmniEulogy
OE has largely been a voice of reason this game when the last game he seemed a lot more emotional. Part of me worries that he was intending to be reasonable as soon as he becomes mafia, but his contributions have all been town-motivated from my perspective. He has pressured people, defended others fairly well, and done some thorough analysis. I have a slight TOWN read on him.
I'd love to see examples etc here but I suppose the post has to be a human length. I can't find real fault in this analysis
I would like to see Omni do more for town, as while I read him as 9.5/10 town, he is not pressing anyone particularly strongly. He knows he has some town credit, he shouldn’t just leave it in the bank.
+ Show Spoiler +
Well, being first on Mandalor is a BAD thing, given that mandalor was a mislynch. He also defended laguerta wayyyy hard which seems dubious to me. His voting logic was horrible and he was clearly taking the easy lynch on kush at the start. I'm not sure how this feels town but I suppose "noob" excuses everything? You guys already know I think Trotske is scummy
I haven’t checked Trotske as I didn’t see it as a valuable use of my time. Anything I said would be seen as WIFOM, and I couldn’t really see much on his filter to talk about. If there is a wagon forming I will need to go trawl his filter and get informed *grumble*.
Sn0 finishes up his analysis with a look at Zare’s voting history, all of which I agree with.
I’ll finish with some responses to some of the things Sn0 has said relating to myself:
+ Show Spoiler + I'm somewhat worried about Spag's LAL drive today actually. As much as I'd like everybody to contribute a serious amount (rofl just 2 pages overnight o.O), I'm not sure we have the time. If there are 3 mafia (or 2 mafia 1 SK), which seems reasonable for a 13 player game, we have exactly 1 free mislynch before GG (unless we have a JK/Doc who has sick reads on mafia/targets).
DO you want me to go over my reasons for LAL day two? I don’t want to repeat them, but I have good reasons. I don’t want to further clutter the thread with them, but I honestly think killing lurkers is better scum-hunting for day one and two than going and lynching an active player. It’s meeting more resistance this game, but I think that is because I did not have the opportunity to establish my intentions early on day one.
Also, I would like to note that it is unlikely that scum have any number of members but three. The traditional ratio of scum/town is 1/3, which would mean an SK would come out of the town numbers IMO. Taking away one scum also means taking a large percentage of their numbers, but taking one town wouldn't change too quite as much.
+ Show Spoiler + I mean, I'd love for everybody to be active, but I'm not sure that is gonna work. And spag, I know you are experienced, but that is the most WIFOM argument for Omni being town...
My argument for Omni being town is not WIFOM. It is a calculated insight into his motives. I’m not sure exactly how you think it is WIFOM, but I’m not terribly interested. So long as you understand that you’ll meet resistance if you target Omni for a lynch, I don’t care what you think of my reasoning. Omni is currently under no pressure, so let’s not talk about this again until he is. I'm also only on my fourth game, so I'm probably not as experienced as you've assumed.
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On January 16 2013 05:39 Trotske wrote:
Why are you trying to discredit me? because I put a FoS on you?
Your post is like the definition of ad-homiem.
This post was the definition of an answer to a question asked to me by shz.
Not related to your FoS.
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On January 16 2013 15:20 Spaghetticus wrote:
My review of Sn0_Man’s review of Zarepath’s review
I think you (Sn0) overestimate how much Mocsta by himself damages town. It may be true that he threw one game away, but the forward trajectory he lends town is valuable. He might be in a bit of a rut ATM due to harsh assessment, but as town I will always decide to keep him around until at least day 3 or 4 (not a soft-claim, when I am town I always keep Mocsta around despite our in-fighting). I actually like Zare’s initial post more than your response to it. Nobody called anyone 10/10 town, and Zare’s post is actually a very clear analysis that I can’t find anything to add to.
I agree that Mocsta is (was?) valuable to town simply due to the volume of his posts and the counter-contributions that they instigated. I'm not voting to lynch him, because I'm at least partially on the LAL train and that pretty much precludes Mocsta (although he hasn't posted a lot recently...). That doesn't change the basement-tier quality of most of his reasoning. Day 3 I'll do a full assessment on him pointing out the worst weakpoints, but for now I'd rather have him in the game as well. Unless he clams up for the next ~16 hours.
I'm not on the LAL train far enough to merely lynch the lowest post-count. We simply do not have enough mislynches left for that to be a winning strategy IMO. The vig missing N1 was brutal for us.
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EPT
