EPTYet Another Normal Mini Mafia - Page 80
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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Vivax
22080 Posts
I'll be nervously munching popcorn and cookies in the shadows. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Only I've been lying. I have no intention of following Palmar's plan for the rest of the game. I don't want to lynch Bugs or Stutters. I think the probability of either of them being mafia is low at this point. First of all, I have had a town read on Stutters the entire game. Nothing anyone has posted has made me think otherwise. The only reason I have ever considered lynching him was the fact that Palmar did, which at this point isn't enough of a factor to make me think my read on Stutters is wrong. If it is, oh well. I lost. Bugs I don't want to lynch either, but the reasons here are more complicated. I have had a scum read on Bugs for the majority of this game. His actions day 1 and his attitude toward the game in general have made me consider him a scummy player. My read on him has changed, however, because of his play the past two days. No longer is Bugs being anti-town. He's still pushing lynches on people I have town reads on but I think he's stubborn. Plus, there's the fact that Promethelax' read on Bugs and attitude toward lynching him have made zero sense. On December 24 2012 04:43 Promethelax wrote: Sure, 'nothing scummy here' doesn't mean that you find the guy town. But if I told you everything toad has done so far suggests to me a a townie mindset I'm not saying I have a town read on the guy. But it still comes through. On top of this we have a WBG who is too sure that Dibbers will flip sk and not scum. I'm trying to figure him out, scum or sk and what we should do with him but Bugs, Bugs knows that dibbers is sk bugs has also pushed Morb the whole game despite Morb obvious, though dumb, townie nature. Bugs doesn't even see another option, Morb has to be scum because... Shortly after which Bugs posted this unvote and barely mentioned Morb again until we had to 'do things right' Bugs opposed the Wiggles lynch, pushed for mislynches on Zelblade and Morb never tried to scum hunt and he spent all d1 calling Toad 'stupid' or 'dumb' but in such a way that never accused him. Bugs knew that Toad was town but didn't want anything he said to have credence. Bugs=Scum Here is Promethelax' case on Bugs where he calls him scum. Now, usually when you call someone scum, you would lynch them, right? Well... On December 26 2012 08:39 Promethelax wrote: I'm still suspicious of Bugs, he is saved from as much direct scrutiny because Eywa- is playing in a way which I can only understand as scum motivated. After the flip I'll go back and think things over again but for the moment Bugs gets a pass because there are two or more people who are scummier than him. On December 26 2012 13:08 Promethelax wrote: Yamato: town Bugs can be useless, town Palmar cannot be useless. Please consider this. Instead of lynching bugs, what is Promethelax doing day 3? Pushing a lynch on Eywa, the lurker. I and Palmar both did not read Eywa as scum, and indeed I only voted for the lynch at the start of the day because of my lack of confidence in my reads at that point, and then at the end of the day because of Palmar's logic about not wanting a double death. I stand by the decision, time has only helped me as a town player. But back to Promethelax, why would he spend so much effort defending Bugs if he thought he was scum? Did he honestly think lynching into a town-read lurker who made a case with points he admitted were logical was the best lynch over Bugs, an active player he has called scummy and useless? It doesn't make any sense from a town perspective. But from a scum perspective, with the current plan in motion, you can see exactly why a scum Promethelax would want to get to lylo with Bugs still around. If people have a scum read on Bugs and he's still alive at lylo with you, who are they more likely to lynch? Indeed, the Eywa lynch was designed to make Promethelax look more townie. "Oh, I'm so mad, that guy is not posting, he's so scummy, uuuuggghhh." It's an attempt at actually looking like he's interested in finding scum without actually doing so. Has he had another scum read this game? Bugs. Has he wanted to lynch bugs? Not really. Is there any other scum read this game? I don't see one. What I do see is a lot of asking questions, playing devil's advocate, and generally subverting townies like Palmar and myself. But to make a really good case on Promethelax at this point, I have to consider her response to this allegation I have made. "Why, I'm just a townie who looks townie, dude, I can't hunt scum!" To that, I say this: Newbie Mini Mafia XIX: Promethelax's Mafia Filter. Look at that filter, and look at his one in this game. He calls himself town, he talks down to townies, he barely scum hunts, and he asks a lot of vague questions about other people's scum reads. It is remarkably similar to his play this game. Similar enough, in conjunction with my previous posts about his scummy play this game, to say I am more confident in lynching him than I am in lynching Bugs. Now obviously all of you might draw different conclusions from this information, but I feel as if I've finally solved this game. But before I go off and die tonight, as I am the only person no one else would lynch, I,all leave you with one last piece of WIFOM: If the scum was Bugs or Stutters, how would they possibly think they could win this past day? | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
His interactions with vivax all game have also been strange. The problem, though, is that I find it hard to believe that wiggles would push for zelblade's lynch on day 1 before he was in danger of dying. He voted both zelblade and vivax. Do you really think he would push both his scumbuddies day 1? | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
It's also possible that he meant to bus zelblade D1 to gain town cred and get rid of a mafia member who was already "caught", or who was actually hurting their chances of winning more than helping at that point with his inactivity. But looking at Wiggles' filter, did he really ever mean to lynch zelblade? His focus was on Vivax as his scumhunt target attempt. It is possible though that he saw multiple people with the same read and thought it might be an easy townie to lynch off. The association implications of Zelblade being scum are the most difficult things for me to make fit into my theory of Prom's alignment. Everything else just fits. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
It is possible, I guess, if zelblade was scum and he thought zelblade was caught. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
What is/isn't convincing and why? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
There are two problems: the Wiggles stuff as I mentioned already, and the fact that the way this game has gone, it is not terribly surprising why it would be difficult to come up with concrete opinions about scum. The weird thing is that there are plus points for all 3 of stutters, sciberbia, and Prom. Sciberbia is most likely to be town IMO of those 3. Between stutters and Prom, stutters was second to last on Wiggles, and he's done nothing either. He also seems to have played out of his town meta. The biggest problem here is that he was pretty against vivax over the past day or so. (again, possible that they simply wanted to kill each other to maximize the chance that one of them wins solo) For Promethelax he just did enough to appear town, and I agree with you that it is strange that he is aware of that himself. I need to reread his past games more carefully to actually tell whether he is playing out of his town meta, though. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Yamato, I like you and all but your case is bad. I spent day 3 pursuing my top scum read, I managed to get that guy lynched and it was a pro-town thing to do. If we had double-lynched (used the modkill as a lynch) and let Eywa- die I, as mafia, could have eliminated two townines. I thought Bugs was scum and made a case on him. As the game progressed I didn't find him the scummiest player so I didn't want to lynch him. As scum what motivation do I have for keep Bugs alive where I don't have to? I could have forced a Bugs lynch day three along with an Eywa- mod kill. As scum that would be amazing because Bugs can be a very strong town player and getting town to eliminate him and allow me to kill Palmar at night would be optimal play. All of this is wifom but it is how I would play this out if I was scum and Bugs was town. Point 3: on N2 the last scum player was under less suspicion than Vivax. Reasoning: Imp was the JK and they had (probably) found his breadcrumbs. He said the jailer should go on the offensive. Scum has to use the guy under the least suspicion to carry out the kill. I've just thought of this and will be looking back at d2 to see what Imp was saying about various players to see who scum would be comfortable using instead of vivax. point 4 (having nothing to do with this case): with Yam/Bugs/Stut/Sci/me alive we're going to be in mylo tomorrow without any confirmed townies. I think a no-lynch is optimal play here. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On December 24 2012 14:25 iamperfection wrote: jk should go on the offensive imo someone like stutters or vivax well if they are a team they'd have to wifom about this but it is a point in favour of town Stutters to me (though a small point). Kind of like the Bugs RB n1, a small point in his favour but not overwhelming evidence of alignment. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
We know for a fact there is a scum roleblocker, because any non-retarded town RB would have claimed by now. Morbidius did not lie about being roleblocked, which means on the night both morb + vivax were roleblocked, one was iamp and the other was scum. On n1, guess what? There were two RBs. Why would I have been jailed? I was scum RBed, almost certainly. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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