yeah, of course. People's play can always slip, someone could reveal themselves to me as scum and I would lynch them but as of right now nothing has made me want to change that plan.

yamato77

11589 Posts

December 30 2012 07:04 GMT

#1563

Let me ask you this.

If Vivax flips scum, who would you lynch tomorrow?

If town?

And what about the flip makes you think that the lynch you have chosen is the right one?

Promethelax

Canada7089 Posts

December 30 2012 07:34 GMT

#1564

Town: Stutters, Stut has only been really here to push the lynch between him and Vivax. If Viv is town that is probably a scum push. Really. If Viv flips town both Bugs and Stutters are scum In my eyes, I happen to be way more interested in hearing bugs talk for a cycle longer than stutters if we have to keep one of them around.
Scum: Bugs, wbg has been all over Stutters but when it became clear that Viv was the lynch for today changed his read on the kid.

Though honestly it probably doesn't matter since we'll need to lynch into one or the other and, if we're wrong, lynch into the other.

Sorry about this, posting from a tablet, still figuring it out.

yamato77

11589 Posts

December 30 2012 08:02 GMT

#1565

Why are you so comfortable with lynching bugs at lylo when you have been hesitant to lynch him the whole game?

Promethelax

Canada7089 Posts

December 30 2012 08:12 GMT

#1566

Because there have been scummier players, I like to lynch the guys most likely to be scum and that hasn't been Bugs. When all the scummier players are lynched and the game is, in theory, still going Bugs is currently the scummiest guy who would be left and the most likely to flip scum out of the remaining players.

yamato77

11589 Posts

December 30 2012 08:36 GMT

#1567

But on day 2 you were convinced Bugs was Eywa's scum partner. What changed your mind?

sciberbia

United States1359 Posts

December 30 2012 12:33 GMT

#1568

On December 30 2012 15:45 yamato77 wrote:
But now all of you are sheeping my Promethelax read and I wonder why. What factors in to this decision for each of you?

@yamato
I wouldn't say that I'm sheeping your read. It's more just that you're saying it like it is and I'm agreeing with you. The evidence that you are town and that Morbidius is town is stronger than the evidence that Prom is town. I agree that some of his actions could have been mafia motivated, and may have benefited mafia. But overall, he looks town. Definitely more townie than bugs, vivax, and stutters.

On December 30 2012 16:34 Promethelax wrote:
Town: Stutters, Stut has only been really here to push the lynch between him and Vivax. If Viv is town that is probably a scum push. Really. If Viv flips town both Bugs and Stutters are scum In my eyes, I happen to be way more interested in hearing bugs talk for a cycle longer than stutters if we have to keep one of them around.
Scum: Bugs, wbg has been all over Stutters but when it became clear that Viv was the lynch for today changed his read on the kid.

Though honestly it probably doesn't matter since we'll need to lynch into one or the other and, if we're wrong, lynch into the other.

Sorry about this, posting from a tablet, still figuring it out.

I agree with Prom that Stutters looks worse relative to bugs if Vivax flips town. Stutters has been pushing Vivax for a while now. Bugs was defending Vivax yesterday when he might have been lynched, and now is saying that Vivax has a good chance of being scum when he looks certain to be lynched. That would be a bit weird if bugs is scum and Vivax is town. I'm still not sure that I'd want to lynch Stutters over bugs though. I just feel like, based on everything in their filters, bugs is more likely to be scum.

If Vivax flips scum, which is what I expect, it will not really change my opinion of either Stutters or Bugs. I will still think bugs is more suspicious.

wherebugsgo

Japan10647 Posts

December 30 2012 15:08 GMT

#1569

##unvote

##vote Vivax

Promethelax

Canada7089 Posts

December 30 2012 16:25 GMT

#1570

On December 30 2012 17:36 yamato77 wrote:
But on day 2 you were convinced Bugs was Eywa's scum partner. What changed your mind?

Bugs' play has simply been better than Stutters, I have more of an idea of how Bugs plays and his play later in this game, while very abrasive, has been similar enough in mindset to his recent townie games for me to find him less sccummy than Stutters.

You can't have it both ways Yam, I can't both be finding Bugs as scum and as town.

I think Scum team is two of Vivax/Stutters/Bugs I would lynch Bugs last because I feel he is the least scummy of the three.

Okay? That is the thought process here. Best of luck everyone, I'll talk to you again in many hours.

Promethelax

Canada7089 Posts

December 30 2012 16:31 GMT

#1571

meant to add:

Yam, if either Sci or I is scum or if we are both town or if we are both scum we have to choose the other as our Yam/Morb/Sci/Prom LYLO lynch. You literally cannot learn anything about either of us from that, it is simply proper play.

You and Morb are as confirmed as alive townies get so since we each have to play as though we know ourselves to be green we must lynch into the other one: it is proper play no matter if Sci or I are red, green or black. It is the only choice we can reasonably make; who you and Morb would lynch in LYLO with us is an actually interesting thing to think about and I think you should both keep it to yourselves (too late for you, obviously) because if scum know who the lylo target would be they can make sure not to NK that person and to NK the guys would would vote scum.

yamato77

11589 Posts

December 30 2012 19:49 GMT

#1572

I'm still highly confident in this plan. I don't mean to deviate unless something wild happens.

Stutters695

2610 Posts

December 30 2012 20:27 GMT

#1573

On December 31 2012 01:31 Promethelax wrote:
meant to add:

Yam, if either Sci or I is scum or if we are both town or if we are both scum we have to choose the other as our Yam/Morb/Sci/Prom LYLO lynch. You literally cannot learn anything about either of us from that, it is simply proper play.

You and Morb are as confirmed as alive townies get so since we each have to play as though we know ourselves to be green we must lynch into the other one: it is proper play no matter if Sci or I are red, green or black. It is the only choice we can reasonably make; who you and Morb would lynch in LYLO with us is an actually interesting thing to think about and I think you should both keep it to yourselves (too late for you, obviously) because if scum know who the lylo target would be they can make sure not to NK that person and to NK the guys would would vote scum.

You realize there is like no chance of that right? We lynch vivax, we get 4-1, nk tomato
Yamato or morb, lynch bugs, nk on other confirmed town, 2-1 with you, scib and I( or bugs if you lynch me). Short of some crazy wifom I fail to see any scenario like you proposed. I will flip town, but will are you 100% certain that either bugs or I must be scum? Let's say once vivax flips scum we lynch bugs and he happens to flip town. Do you think that plan still holds up and I've been bussing him since d2?

I'd go into scenarios of what happens if vivax flips town but we're straight fucked if you guys think I'm an auto-lynch in that case.

Stutters695

2610 Posts

December 30 2012 20:34 GMT

#1574

On December 31 2012 04:49 yamato77 wrote:
I'm still highly confident in this plan. I don't mean to deviate unless something wild happens.

The vivax into bugs plan?

yamato77

11589 Posts

December 30 2012 20:36 GMT

#1575

I think either way Vivax flips I want to lynch bugs tomorrow.

I'd rather Stutters be the lylo lynch in case of a town bugs flip after a scum Vivax flip.

And I think Bugs is a good lylo lynch if Vivax flips town.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

December 30 2012 21:02 GMT

#1576

Vote Count

Vivax (5) - Promethelax, sciberbia, yamato, Stutters695, wherebugsgo
Stutters695 (1) - Vivax

Not Voting: - Morbidius

Day ends in ~3 hours. Vivax is currently set to be lynched