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Newbie Mini Mafia XXX - Page 72

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Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:04 GMT
#1421
On November 07 2012 08:46 Clarity_nl wrote:
What the fuck, you've been saying I'm blue or scum for the last 30 hours.
I'm being vague, and continue being vague, because it might entice scum to NK me, if I ever get out of your 24/7 scope.
Claiming does nothing for me.


@ Clarity

Well, claiming could maybe save you. If people believe your claim, that is...
If you are town and blue, the sooner you claim, the more time you have to show everybody the truth of your claim.
If you are town and VT, I don't understand why you would not have already claimed it already.
I'm sorry to tell you this, but the longer you take to claim, the more it makes you red, at least in my eyes...
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 07 2012 00:07 GMT
#1422
You just said the same thing 4 different ways and I still don't understand.
I don't have a claim that would make me look more like town, isn't that obvious from the fact that I haven't claimed?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
November 07 2012 00:07 GMT
#1423
On November 07 2012 08:59 da0ud wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 02:30 Alsn wrote:
On November 07 2012 01:34 sylverfyre wrote:
Djodref, What do YOU think we would have accomplished if went through with confirming a bunch of VT through debears method on day 1?
To be fair, if Cheese had the right assumption and that it was actually possible to "confirm" all VT's, it would probably have been pretty good for town. The problem was, what was to stop a non-VT(either blue or scum) from just saying "uuh, I didn't know everyone knew?" after debears asked that question? There was just no way to confirm anyone as anything considering what we now know, so stop it with the absolutely ridiculous speculation.

However, if it had actually been possible to confirm all the VTs, scum would probably have been in a fishy situation. They would know who the blues were, but they wouldn't know which blues they were. At the same time, all the VTs would have known who not to lynch, in addition to the blues(assuming there's two of them, which is just a guess at this point) knowing among which three players the scum were hiding. That would've probably been a pretty difficult situation for scum because even if they night kill both blues, no VT is going to lynch another VT in a scenario like that. So there's no way for scum to proceed than to NK VTs and hope town lynches the blue players instead of scum. This would still leave 3 VT vs 2 scum in D3 though.

I think Cheese just made a mistake in not thinking it through, as a scenario like that would include no "proper" play at all from the game participants. So if that really was the case Cheese claiming like that would have meant that marv probably would have cancelled and restarted the game with new roles. It's unfortunate that we didn't have enough time to think it through, because in hindsight I think Cheese's argument about "why would I blow up the thread as scum?" looks pretty convincing actually.

That's the last thing I'll say on the matter. The fact is that there's absolutely no way to confirm or deny anything with regards to that clusterfuck. With that in mind, like the late debears said, going forward we should use legit scum hunting, not WIFOM bullshit.


Morning just catching up with the thread (only bottom of page 64 so far)
One quick reaction to your post before I forget.
I personally think that if we had confirmed all the VTs it would only have made sense for scum to kill them at night and not the blue. They want to keep uncertainty and don't want to be outnumbered by VTs.
I think this is as well the reason Debears got killed cause he is the one who got the most genuine reaction to CC claim.


@da0ud

What do you think about people claiming right now? Djo seems to think clarity should claim, and probably thinks I should to. Is that a good or bad idea in your opinion for the current state of the game?
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
November 07 2012 00:15 GMT
#1424
Djod, to be fair, there's nothing particularly wrong about him being ambiguous about claiming his role. If he's town, he might genuinely think that claiming would give scum more information without giving himself any more credibility than he already has.
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:19 GMT
#1425
On November 07 2012 09:07 Clarity_nl wrote:
You just said the same thing 4 different ways and I still don't understand.
I don't have a claim that would make me look more like town, isn't that obvious from the fact that I haven't claimed?


@ Clarity

In this case, you have no choice but to go the scumhunt way.

But I want to warn everyone against a last minute blue claim. In my eyes, a last minute blue claim from Clarity would be a fakeclaim !

On top on not really showing a town behavior, I think there is a hole in your 'PM to marv" story, but I don't know where is the hole exactly yet. I have arguments against a VT Clarity and I have arguments against a blue Clarity. I don't understand why you are not giving me the info to allow me to attack you so that you can defend yourself properly...
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:20 GMT
#1426
@ Alsn

Ok, I understand, but I don't want to see last minute shenanigans. That's all...
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
November 07 2012 00:21 GMT
#1427
@djo

Do you not realize that he just claimed?
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 07 2012 00:21 GMT
#1428
You keep telling me to go scumhunt, and then you continuously assault me.

You told people last night that if I claimed today it would be fake. You are telling people today that any last minutes claims by me will be fake.

You are telling me to claim so you can attack me.

You KNOW there is a hole in my argument yet you CANNOT FIND IT.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:24 GMT
#1429
I'm not going to tell you where is the hole in your argument beforehand !

Anyway, did you find more things on Obzy ? Are you convinced he is the right target for today ?
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:25 GMT
#1430
On November 07 2012 09:21 Rad wrote:
@djo

Do you not realize that he just claimed?


I don't want no hints. He already gave me an headache during N1.
Hints are giving him room for later...
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 07 2012 00:26 GMT
#1431
His reaction makes me more convinced that he is scum, yes.
Are you not going to address any of the contradictions I just pointed out?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
November 07 2012 00:28 GMT
#1432
@clarity

Claiming JK at this point though is really risky though, don't you think? I can't seem to view him as scum after that move, just a confirmation biased blinded JK. Think it was just a coin flip attempt to win?
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
November 07 2012 00:28 GMT
#1433
On November 07 2012 08:59 da0ud wrote:
I personally think that if we had confirmed all the VTs it would only have made sense for scum to kill them at night and not the blue. They want to keep uncertainty and don't want to be outnumbered by VTs.
I think this is as well the reason Debears got killed cause he is the one who got the most genuine reaction to CC claim.
Like I stated earlier in response to sylver.

If it was possible to 100% no doubt whatsoever confirm every VT in the game the game would be over. Unless there are more than 2 blue players, all the VTs would have to do is vote out a non-vt every day. Even if they mislynch the blue players twice in a row, they would still be 3 VT vs 2 scum at the beginning of D3. The fact remains, there's no way to confirm all the VTs because anyone(blue or scum) could just lie and say that they are VT. Stop discussing it please, it leads nowhere.
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:29 GMT
#1434
On November 07 2012 08:57 Obzy wrote:
Bleh. I had typed up a response to your post, Djo, but accidentally closed the tab I don't want to retype it; but basically, I don't really understand why you'd want me to rationally discuss with Clarity when you intend to lynch him. I'm gonna post what I wrote so far (It's a long filter analysis up until about where Djo starts attacking Clarity).

+ Show Spoiler +
Okay so I'm typing this in a text file so if the formatting is stupid I apologize in advance lol. (sorry for the lol, da0ud ^^)

With regards to Clarity and why he is scum: I am going to spoiler this because I'm basically just going through his filter point by point and taking things that I can comment on.
+ Show Spoiler +

I think the two things to take away from all this though:
- Debears defended Cheese
- Djodref tunneling Cheese


All three of these people are town. Just as a side note. (If somebody would like my thoughts on Djo's JK claim, I can deliver.)

Last three pages was djo, you and me. Still no word from da0ud and sylver.
I think you are wrong in saying Obzy is useless. He might not have posted a lot but he makes good points or asks decent questions when he does, maybe you feel that way because he's biggest post is directed at you?


This was in response to debears asking Clar if anything stood out as weird - I don't really think it's particularly important, but I thought it funny that he commented he didn't think I was useless at that time period.

[With regards to Clar's list of reads]
Considered Djo slightly scum, null on deb, null on Cheese. Slightly town on myself.
So with all that said, I only have two slight scumreads on Alsn and Djo,

I am no longer suspect of Alsn, at least not as much. Although he seems to have a hard on for debears and djo he's making decent points and trying to further conversation.


Cool, so Alsn was down with debears and Djo. Mental note I guess.

Cautions Rad about the perils of not having any reads - Ehn

Comments at 16:22 Nov4 that he'll be making a case (or multiple) that day, to Djo.

Specifically namedrops Hapa and comments he'll ignore the advice people follow, taking issue with its quality. (Apologizes later.)

(In a response to Djo):
On November 04 2012 17:20 Clarity_nl wrote:
Top 3 choices in my eyes are Debears, Sylver and you.

As for people who haven't answered my questions: Alsn, Cheese, Sylver.


I'll have to look and see if he pushes Sylver at all.

He mentions Cheese not looking scummy ~16ish hours before the deadline.

Posts a defense from debears' post.

On November 05 2012 02:54 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2012 02:49 Djodref wrote:
On November 05 2012 02:44 Rad wrote:
On November 05 2012 02:41 Djodref wrote:
So it means that you have confirmation bias against me. You don't want to give me a chance to defend myself, you have already made up your mind and you want to see me dead.
It means that you are now 100% convinced that I am scum (in the case where you are town) which is stupid because I am not scum and townies should always keep their mind open or that you are scum yourself.


Lol djo... you realize you just said "your argument is stupid because I'm not scum."


Honestly I would be pissed off if Clarity is town and do not want to discuss his case against me beforehand because he is afraid that I could talk my way out of the lynch. I don't understand why a townie would want to see me dead so much.


If you are town you can talk your way out of a lynch regardless. It's not like I would've posted my case an hour beforehand, right about now is when I would've posted it. I am currently working on a different case while also answering questions, so please bear with me. I will keep djo's case on hand in case I get lynched. I will post it before the deadline if it seems I'll die. Otherwise saving it for D2

Okay so apparently he had planned on posting a case on Djo today. That obviously will not occur unless da0ud claims JK or something, but w/e. I find the line "If you are town you can talk your way out of a lynch regardless" somewhat amusing; as a side note - I don't really know if he's talking about Djo or just in general.

He posts a case on debears, that looks fairly legitimate if the knowledge that debears was VT didn't exist. (Votes DB at that time) -

When debears asks him to post his case on Djo, he chooses not to, largely because he intends to on Day 2 or if he is going to be lynched. He (afterwards) mentions that he doesn't want to post a case on Djo if Djo won't be there to defend himself -

I really don't like this. Why would you care if the person wasn't around to defend themselves if you think they're scum? And if you don't think they're scum, why would you post a case on them? I guess he can have points for Chivalry, but I think that he didn't want to post a case because he knew Djo was town.

Clar has some commentary on how staying neutral isn't bad D1, I disagree with this, but I've already covered that in this post. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=379514&currentpage=40#785
(It happens to be the one that I mention not feeling comfortable about voting CC - this is still taking place before debears picks up that CC is trying to claim.)

Then the CC claim stuff - By this point, I had voted Clar largely due to process of elimination. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=379514&currentpage=37#730
I liked Djo and debears' cases, I didn't like Clarity's case on debears, and between Clar and Sylv, I voted Clar. (I largely got my town read on db _because_ he hadn't gone and pointed out that I was sort of shitty and thus Mafia, despite having questioned me.)

After CC's claim, Clarity mentioned that assumptions couldn't be made based on host behavior. This didn't make sense to me unless he was blue or scum, which he addressed later- I couldn't really find fault with that at the time, it seemed like he had just been thinking more than I had if he was VT yet asked about the VT flavor. He brings up a quote of mine telling him to convince me who _is_ scum, rather than trying to convince me that he isn't- he basically says that he's too busy defending himself to push his scumreads.

On November 05 2012 09:28 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if Cheese flips red there's no way debears is scum.... 9 player mafia and scum busses eachother day 1? No way.

Given that he'd posted a case on DB, this looks relevant; but if he knew Cheese had no chance of flipping red, it doesn't hurt the fact he's only actually made a case on debears (up until this point) at all.

Gets angry at CC for not defending himself (I concur with this) but then votes him for his defense being WIFOM, over his scumread of debears?

_And then says,
On November 05 2012 09:42 Clarity_nl wrote:
Wait, so you're voting debears to save yourself when you're VT?

What the hell. Debears was his scumread and vote up until this point, and when CC changes his vote to be on Debears, he questions it. Why why why. There should be zero confusion if CC really was VT, given that he is basically agreeing with what Clarity had assumed up until this point; but once Clarity switches, he questions it.

Clar mentions that the logical thing to do would be to jump on him to save himself, instead of Djo, then debears, then him. Djo is town, debears is town, ??? The comment looks like it's trying to indicate that "Clarity must be town, CC did not considering jumping onto him at first" to me.


I will try to continue this later tonight, but I'm done for the moment. I'm going to catch up a few posts in the thread and then be afk for a couple of hours (until my work day ends, I get home, and I finish eating dinner) - I wanted to get my point-by-point thoughts to Alsn before he had to go to sleep.


@ Obzy

I want you to interact with him in the case where you are wrong...
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 07 2012 00:29 GMT
#1435
I don't believe Djo is scum. Unless we get a counterclaim I'll believe he is JK.
This doesn't mean his argument is completely bogus.

When I say "his reaction" I was talking about Obzy, since Djo asked me.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:30 GMT
#1436
EBWOP: In the case where I am wrong
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
November 07 2012 00:31 GMT
#1437
In fact, the only winning move in any type of mass claim scenario would be for everyone to claim VT. Scum would obviously not claim anything else, and blue roles would be forced to do the same in order to keep scum guessing about town.
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Rad
Profile Joined May 2010
United States935 Posts
November 07 2012 00:32 GMT
#1438
@clarity

Sorry I thought you meant djo. Did not follow that conversation properly.
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:37 GMT
#1439
On November 07 2012 09:26 Clarity_nl wrote:
His reaction makes me more convinced that he is scum, yes.
Are you not going to address any of the contradictions I just pointed out?


@ Clarity

I'll look at his filter very carefully when I have time at work, which is not the case right now...
Djodref
Profile Joined September 2012
France3332 Posts
November 07 2012 00:41 GMT
#1440
@ Clarity

Who would be Obzy partner in crime in your opinion ?

@ Rad

Y u no post cases ?
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