EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVI - Page 26
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Vivax
21965 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 15 2012 06:22 Vivax wrote: Ok. I have analyzed ha2's posts especially concentrating on his voting behavior. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342960¤tpage=13#247 Here voted s0lstice after defending from Release, without posting any case against s0lstice. Then he votes Release omgus style, but only after he voted for s0lstice for whatever reason. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342960¤tpage=13#247 Here that pattern repeats again. He defends from Release, and votes for grush based on something which has been repeated over and over by whole town. On the other hand, there's really not that much to say about grush, his play was...original. The point isn't as strong, but the repeating pattern 'make cases against 1, vote 2 for no reason' is kinda suspicious. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=494&topic_id=342960 The last post. He has been playing in incredibly inconsistent way regarding his very few votes, while mantaining a style trying to post as few as he can. He only starts engaging into discussion when there are townies pressuring him, and even then he keeps his posts as short as possible. Please consider what I wrote just now if I die tonight. If I survive, I will reevaluate the case against him with more information. For sure he's a lategame lurker when there is so much information available. He didn't post any lengthy cases yet, just defending and bandwagoning. Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides Shiaopi + lazer + kthez myself + ha + vivax If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand? Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us. One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT. Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different. That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims. What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned, Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not) Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned) You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post. Kthez, you better watch your back. | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5245 Posts
On June 15 2012 06:54 Lazermonkey wrote: The Daypost is up in an hour, right? 22 minutes from this time. | ||
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KtheZ
United States813 Posts
We have spent a large proportion of the second day cycle bickering amongst ourselves after the grush/me roleclaim. Throughout this entire series of dialogue not one of us had taken notice of any "lurking" being done, which can be attributed to release's extreme post amount (which isn't a bad thing). Throughout the second day, ha did an amazing job of diffusing responsibility off of himself. He only posted with contentless posts, and the grush/Me claim created enough controversy to be able to throw him off our radars. Not only has ha not contributed to town whatsoever within the recent days, he has laid extremely low, which is a great scumtell to me, since the lynches within these few days are extremely integral to our victory. Since I know that me and Lazermonkey are town, the mafia definitely lie within release, ha, ShiaoPi, and vivax. Release has been a very good poster within the few days. I do not understand his recent accusations but his play during the recent days has proved to me as a great pro-town read. ShiaoPi I am still unsure of, but since I am DT and he claimed the roleblock (without counterclaims) it is within reason to believe that he is town. Ha is almost certainly mafia, as detailed above. The last person on the list is vivax. Although vivax has responded to Lazermonkey's attacks with decent responses of his own, by process of elimination, vivax is probably the second mafia to town. However, my scum read against him relies on the others being town within a reasonable doubt. Thus, I can conclude that the mafia team is ha and vivax, and the next day lynch should be ha. Looking at release's post, it is definitely a possiblity that I will be roleblocked this night and spared, because then I cannot confirm anything to town. It is important that you all listen to my analysis so we can get through this for a victory | ||
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KtheZ
United States813 Posts
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EchelonTee
United States5245 Posts
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KtheZ
United States813 Posts
On June 15 2012 07:36 Release wrote: Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides Shiaopi + lazer + kthez myself + ha + vivax If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand? Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us. One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT. Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different. That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims. What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned, Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not) Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned) You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post. Kthez, you better watch your back. Release your support in the consecutive mislynches and your tunneling makes me very sad that I am in your sights. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
Everyone, I am the detective! So my first check was on Vivax. Release seemed to think that a check on anyone other than grush or ha236 was a bad check. I don't agree with this at all. First off, this is a noob game and their play could be explained by them being inexperienced. Or rather grush, because I never really had a scum read on Ha236 anyway. Also, in case that were to show town I would either need to claim in order to save one of the weaker townies which means no more checks for me or I had to defend them while they were acting suspicious without me claiming. I would either risk a lynch of them anyway or even a lynch on myself for defending a suspicious person and swaping my read super hard(said I was willing to lynch grush D1, Wants to stop the lynch on him D2...) My reason Vivax for this was because of his play. He didn't apear clearly scummy with his ''nice'' posts. But still, his unwillingness to take a stance anywhere. This wasn't his first game so he should know the basics of town play. I didn't find anything that pointed in that direction.Vivax showed as scum! Regarding the second scum, I am 99,9% sure this is Kthez. He have faked a DT claim at this point. I'm not even sure you need any more evidence than this. He even claimed me to be town. What townie would do such a thing? My guess is that Kthez was feeling the hard pressure against him and when he saw grush claim DT, he took the opportunity as he felt most people would rather belive him than grush in a 1vs1. This would lead into a 2-1 where Vivax could've gotten lots of town cred by bussing him. If Kthez is a townie, he is the worst one ever. Btw, I decided to check Kthez this night. I don't have a way to 100% confirm myself as detective so you will not know if my claim here is true or not. But you can be sure that either me or Vivax is scum here. I will not really push the case vs Vivax here either. In case I die tonight, you will all know I spoke the truth. If I survive, I will be able to push the case against him for 48 hours. I recomend you guys to take a very close look at their filters as well as mine and try to think you is the most likely scum at this point. Essentially if I survive the night, D3 will come down to a lynch on me vs a lynch on Vivax/Kthez. If I die, it's insta GG, town wins! When writing this, I feel I probebly could've posted this way earlier. My head was just sooo full of fuck with two guys claiming DT when it was obvious not only that both of them were lying but also that one of them HAD to be town. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
What I do not understand is how you can say that town is split right now. The only thing which connects me to KtheZ is my claim of being RB'ed. There is nothing else tying me to him and close to nothing that ties me to Lazer. If you want to call something a split, the thing remotely close to it is Vivax vs. Lazer and ha vs. Release. These are the "hard" stances you have taken until now. The Vivax vs. Lazer case does not convince me either way and ha's play has not really improved, sure he posted one case against Release, but it was fairly weak (at least in my opinion). At the moment my feeling right now is that it is either ha+Vivax or Release+Vivax. You might think it weird, but fuck I am running out of time, if I am alive you will get further reasoning | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 15 2012 07:58 KtheZ wrote: Release your support in the consecutive mislynches and your tunneling makes me very sad that I am in your sights. You should read more carefully so you can find out what kind of defense i want. | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 15 2012 07:36 Release wrote: Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides Shiaopi + lazer + kthez myself + ha + vivax If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand? Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us. One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT. Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different. That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims. What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned, Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not) Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned) You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post. Kthez, you better watch your back. | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5245 Posts
Day 3 ![[image loading]](http://i302.photobucket.com/albums/nn96/firestormzq/prince-of-persia-wallpapers_20057_2560x1600.jpg) The Prince of Persia was exhausted. Though it had only been 2 days, it had been 2 days of non-stop, vicious fighting, and his peerless strength was starting to falter. He he destroyed hordes, defeated towering grotesques, and traversed the deadliest of traps. Yet an unmovable obstacle had finally cornered him off. Behind him, an impassable cliff. Before him, an unfathomable monster. He thought of his love The_Zen_Man, whom he had horribly betrayed out of misguided information. He thought of his father, whom he had been forced to put down. He thought of the fallen, slain and murdered without a second thought. He knew he had done what he could; it was up to his comrades to win the war, not him. As his life flashed before his eyes, he felt content knowing that he had done what he could to save the world. "If only I had more time..." The monster approached. Feeling his blood boil with that familiar furor, he felt the warrior within unleashed, one last time, as they clashed in glorious combat. Lazermonkey, the Prince of Persia (Town Detective) was defeated! Day 3 has begun! You have until Saturday, Jun 16 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) to cast your votes. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. 48 hours until sundown. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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KtheZ
United States813 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 12 2012 21:44 Lazermonkey wrote: The case on Vivax Vivax post count is okay given that he he missed basically the first 24 hours or so of the game so note that I'm not actually usuing his lurking as a reason for his suspicion but rather the content in his posts.He have been playing insanely passive up untill this point. You should all check out his filter. This guy has during D1 pretty much not taken a clear stance anywhere. + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2012 21:12 Vivax wrote: Good day guys. I opened this thread with the expectation of everyone pointing his finger at me for lurking so heavily the first half of day 1, for which I apologize now. I have had a REALLY shit day yesterday, and I didn't have any motivation whatsoever to get into the internet. I am not very willing to specify what happened yesterday since this is still the internet, I'll just mention that it involved me driving. Now that it's Sunday, I can lean back a bit, gonna have quite some shit going on from tomorrow on, but I feel that I can keep contributing to this game in spite of the circumstances, but don't expect me to be online whenever you are. Oh, and you should also know where I'm located to know the times I'm posting at: Austria/CET. Time to start Top-down: Like I already mentioned, I expected everyone to suspect me cause of policy lynching. Surprisingly, that's not the case. The policy talk quickly resulted into Release squeezing grush like a lemon throughout the game, but grush results to be a pretty dry one, just releasing unjuicy drops which only help to fortify the suspicions against him. Frankly I think Release has a really aggressive playstyle reminding me of my own last game, it's a great way to gain transparent information from other people and to a lesser extent from the accused ones, but also involves risks of all kind. The subsequent posts regaridng this case all revolve around the initial posts as tells. My verdict is: Release looks like he's tunneling pretty hard with the aggressive style, on the other hand I have to give him credit for getting out so much information from this case, town really IS busy due to this. Grush, well, if he's town I would be able to understand his somewhat angry, resignated answers as follow-up. If he's scum I would also be able to understand his high amount of one-liners with the least possible amount of information. However, his first posts really weren't helpful to town, so I'll treat him as suspicious, but not definitely guilty. I feel it's too early for me to cast a vote on him, he kind of reminds me of + Show Spoiler + superouman If he's the only alternative to a No lynch, you'll have my vote nontheless. I'm going to post more very soon, I'd prefer to keep my posts focused on single cases since I have to post a lot at once. The first post by Vivax. Note that this is a long post. Note what he is saying. Well, what is he saying? Release is pushing grush hard but still he think it's good. grush is strange but he could very well be town. He is willing to lynch grush, at least under some circumstances. What did he REALLY say here? Remember my first post where I talked about different types of lurkers? This is the type who writes hellofapost and still very little content. + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2012 22:22 Vivax wrote: Okay, I've been doing a stance analysis on the grush case and here's my promised post: s0lstice prefers to go on with policy discussion in the first posts and goes on with it until he outs for the night. When he's back, he completely drops grush and the policy discussion and puts his FoS on ha2etc. Release thinks grush is guilty. Pretty much everyone agreed on grushs post about 'nothing to discuss' being a really bad suggestion for town play. Many dropped the case or defended grush in spite of this. KtheZ notices the overconfidence of Release against grush and points out the danger of tunneling. But he also believes grush to have made scummy moves. I find his semi-calculations pretty strange tbh, but I guess it's his way of FoSing. ShiaoPi has one post in which he says people should stop tunneling grush and instead pressure ha2etc. . What strikes me here is that he wants to pressure ha2etc. for actually defending grush. I find this to be contradictory. Lazermonkey notices grush's suspicious posts and focuses on the people defending him in consequence after placing his FoS on grush. ha2etc. soft-defends grush. The_Zen_Man soft-defends grush. I'm keeping my summary of the swedes in this thread rather short cause there are complex cases developing around them and I think these deserve an in-depth analysis before a summary. So here is a summary post. Contains our opinions about grush. Not his own tho. + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 05:29 Vivax wrote: Here's an inofficial vote count somewhat including the order. grush: ha236: s0lstice, Release The_Zen_Man: Lazermonkey grush57: KTheZ s0lstice: Release: ha236 Guys, we're at close danger of a no-lynch. I'm not very satisfied with ha236 as option cause I find his first posts regarding Lazermonkey and Release to be true, but on the other hand he didn't make a single case except for OMGUS ones now in the end and instead only spent time defending grush and himself. It was a pretty bad day 1 imo, and it can get even worse if we will have to further lurk in the dark, you'll have my vote on ha236 for the sake of the lynch, but be aware of the fact that I'll gladly switch it for any other majority. ##vote ha236 @ s0lstice odd analysis? To me town play seems to be messed up atm and you should actually thank me for getting a bit of transparency in here. Every single and good player would make such a summary in a case before going on and accusing single persons. I doubt one would want to play with a narrow sight. So he does not like ha236 lynch. I'm okay with that. I'm even okay with that he says he is willing to lynch into Ha236 if he needs to, in order to archive majority. What I'm NOT okey with is that he still doesn't give an option. He is fast on on dismiss both grush and ha236 as targets but what does he think himself? Still he havn't given one scumread himself. + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 06:21 Vivax wrote: Needless summarization? That is the type of summarization a good townie uses to get an idea of the connections someone had once he flips. If grush gets lynched, you can look up my summary and check the connections between grush and other players. Just cause you don't see the use doesn't mean it doesn't have any. Btw, I can prove you are being selective since I didn't see you pick on the following summary yet. I just wonder if you are being selective on purpose cause raising suspicion on me would further increase the chance of a No lynch or if it's by mistake. While working on Lazermonkeys case against The_Zen_Man i found another 'needless summarization': + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 04:47 Lazermonkey wrote: So right now, we have not too much time untill lynching. We need to get something done here. With nine players there are 5(Lol) players that have received FoS/Votes unless I'm misstaken. These players are: grush Ha236 me(Lazermonkey) The_Zen_Man s0Lstice s0Lstice were also suspicious of KtheZ recently, although no FoS were placed. Regarding The_Zen_Man case: I especially liked LazerMans point regarding the contradiction between the FoS on him, but the vote on grush. It looks like The_Zen_Man doesn't believe much in his own case. We also have to consider that The_Zen_Man mostly used ha236 points already posted to soft-defend grush. That would allow scum to deflect attention to ha236 again in case gursh flips green. That's about the latest points made by Lazermonkey, now to my own analysis, I'll be especially focusing on The_Zen_Man's first posts: 1. Here's the broken promise: We still have no analysis on grush from you. In a lynch all liars environment you would already be in huge trouble. 2. Without the analysis, you proceed to soft-defend him. The problem about your posts is the way you do that: You tell Release to focus on someone else. Imagine if he suddenly switched target like you propose, that would make him look quite inconsistent...and scummy. 3. The opinions on lynching. I mean, seriously? This part confuses the hell out of me. We should lynch lurkers, but on the other hand you say it will probably result in a mislynch. Then you actually say that we might gain information without a lynch. How is that so? Both points lack reasoning behind them and contradict the other points in your post. Your opinion on lynching policy is wishy washy and no opinion, you seem to promote everything at once. The next posts show your support of ha, always disproving points others make against grush, but at the same time you emphasize your beliefs that he looks scummy. Once ha gets into the crosshair, all of sudden you think it's best to drop all your defenses of grush and to lynch him. When Lazermonkey actually notices your suspicious behavior: I think this quotation of mine reminds that he does have a point about that. You took many of the points about grushs defense from ha236, allowing you to deflect responsibility in case they turn out to be wrong. Looking at your and ha2's posts, your stances are soft and inconsistent as opposed to his, so I'll let you know: If there's a choice between a majority on you and a majority on ha2, I will pick the one against you. ##FoS The_Zen_Man His first real case on someone. This time he gives some actual opnions, which is good. However, why the FoS? Why not a vote? He first agrees with alot of my points about Zen_Man and also brings up a couple of new ones. All in all, the whole posts are filled with accusations yet he only FoS him. I feel like he is testing the waters here. + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2012 07:20 Vivax wrote: I've got the vote for Zen_Man ready, I'll give him about 30 minutes more time to post a defense, then I will proceed to vote for him. We have a majority on him, that's for sure. I think even 6, not 5. Count me in in case he doesn't post a nukeproof defense. Strange post. You said earlier that in case of majority on Zen_Man, you would vote him. Yet you don't. Contradiction here. Vivax finally decides to vote Zen_Man anyway but only after both Ha236 and s0lstice have laid down their votes. + Show Spoiler + On June 12 2012 20:33 Vivax wrote: Sucks that s0lstice got lynched, he was one of the few active posters here. With people being lazy it's even easier for mafia to choose the active ones to get killed first. GG and thanks for the activity yo. Let's get back to the real stuff, I think we have a good clue of the direction to move into:
I have no decisive scumreads yet. But I'll pick one of the three based on his post quality, activity levels and gut feeling: ##Vote grush57 The tone is this post is sooo... I don't know, different? You finally give out reads. In the end of your post tho, you say you have no decisive scumreads tho. You still vote grush right away. Think about how hard it was for him to vote Zen_Man last night even tho he had loads of suspicion on him and compare to this. wtf. You would also fine with lynching any of theese 3. I feel you're almost wanting to lynch for the sake of lynching here. We don't lynch because of that, we lynch because we want to kill scum. At least one of these persons must be townie but you are still okay with lynching any of them. And your motivations for lynching any of them is kinda meh. Your problems with both Ha and KTheZ seems to be their activity level and not the content of their posts. Overall, this guy has basically taken no strong stances anywhere. He makes huge posts with little to no content. All players he have put up this ''weak'' pressure on are those who are already under heavy fire. First grush, then Ha236, then Zen_Man and lastly KTheZ. With all these players(maybe not Zen_Man tho) he basically says ''I'm willing to lynch if necesary but I'm not sure he is scum''. This is classic bandwagon play. ##Vote: Vivax | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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Release
United States4397 Posts
Kthez, who did you check last night? | ||
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Release
United States4397 Posts
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