EPTfuck that reads town lol
although willz did this and ended up saving himself so maybe he's trying to do that?
who knows but I'm certainly staying on him for now.
Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 31
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yomi
United States773 Posts
fuck that reads town lol although willz did this and ended up saving himself so maybe he's trying to do that? who knows but I'm certainly staying on him for now. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On April 15 2012 08:06 yomi wrote: I'm good to go on dittert atm. ##vote: Dittert also the afk guy was a lot more likely to be town than mafia since mafia would presumably find the game more exciting? dunno but please come out and post your thoughts on everything so far. it was very heated yesterday and a calm objective mind could really really help right now. My previous experience had a Mafia subbing in D2 for Newbie V (blubbdavid) he replaced a heavy lurker at that time as well. I think it's possible the situation has repeated itself here, we have pretty much no read on Trumpet other than lurking, his replacement has to step it up a lot to clear him from that suspicion. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
I'm too tired to read your whole post right now Acrofales, but I'm looking forward to read it asap after I wake up. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 15 2012 07:53 Acrofales wrote: Overeager townie or scum? I am unsure, but keep an eye on him. When the lurkers are unlurked or shot, he had better have improved his posts, or I'm going after him. One thing I would like to mention fast is that I just generally like to write a lot. If you look at my Mafia chat filter in GOT (sorry about meta again...), you can see that I flooded it with pretty much anything on my mind at the given moment: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/4pAsUq7W6cyf I'd say my current posting style is very similar to how I posted in the Mafia chat previously. Although that could also be a purposeful play, I don't think it would be a good Mafia strategy to post freely in the thread and risk countless possible Mafia slips. Just pointing this out, I don't claim it's a solid evidence of anything. I really regret that we never got to lynch yomi on Day 1, and I feel like we are going to do the same mistake with Dittert we did earlier with BroodKing. If we just all vote for Dittert and he flips town, it's a complete victory for Mafia (no information, no Mafia lynch, nothing). Dittert martyring like that could be just bad town play or careful Mafia play (not giving any additional information to us). Still, this is the same situation as with BroodKing: a town flip from the lynch would put us so much behind in information that the Mafia would be likely victorious in the end. In any case, I wouldn't rate Dittert's suspiciousness as much above average right now, and lynching him gives us no information in case of a town flip (an extremely bad situation) or little to no information in case of a Mafia flip (although him being Mafia would certainly make up for the lack of information). Still, I'd say lynching yomi would be the better option right now, since I rate his suspiciousness as higher than Dittert and his flip would give us way more information. Win-win, right (unless yomi is town and Dittert is Mafia, which is still possible, although I'm leaning more on Dittert being a totally useless townie)? Dittert isn't really going to be missed regardless of his flip, but I'd prefer lynching yomi for both the better chance of lynching a Mafia and especially the potential for much more useful information from his flip (compared to lynching Dittert). ##Vote: yomi On April 15 2012 08:09 imallinson wrote: I second Acrofales's vote. Yomi to some degree yesterday, me, ArcticFox and Acrofales all made cases against him and he hasn't responded yet. I'm willing to hear him out but for now he is definitely my top scum read. I'm still suspicious of both yomi and Willz but I am willing to leave them for the moment as Dittert makes me even more suspicious. I have to mention this post. I'm a bit confused about what you're trying to say here, but I take it yomi is your best Mafia read... Yet you're willing to follow Acrofales unquestioningly and abandon both yomi and Willz for today? I'm not sure what to make of this, but at least it isn't a good or reasonable play by you. I'm going to sleep pretty soon, so good night and think seriously about this post! | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 15 2012 09:01 Xatalos wrote: I have to mention this post. I'm a bit confused about what you're trying to say here, but I take it yomi is your best Mafia read... Yet you're willing to follow Acrofales unquestioningly and abandon both yomi and Willz for today? I'm not sure what to make of this, but at least it isn't a good or reasonable play by you. I'm going to sleep pretty soon, so good night and think seriously about this post! You obviously didn't read my post in the night where I made it fairly obvious Dittert was my #1 scum read at the moment (it's here if you would like to). So no yomi isn't my best mafia read, Dittert is. I'm also not following Acrofales unquestioningly, I seconded his vote because he beat me to posting. I was going to vote for Dittert anyway at the begining of the Day. I'm not sure whether you are intentionally misreading stuff now. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 15 2012 08:29 willz22912 wrote: I really have no idea what the hell Dittert is doing. Should we really ditch all D2 discussion and let this vote go through? If he's going to be modkilled/replaced we may as well look at someone else or at least save him from another day. If we mis-lynch him today and Mafia kill another town again N2 we're at 5-3 D3, going to be hard to win at that point. We definitely shouldn't ditch the discussion and if a better candidate comes up we should lynch them. However, I for one am not going to let someone martyr themselves as an easy out. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote: I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB. Discussion is good. Idle chat is not. As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote: Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... On April 13 2012 02:51 Xatalos wrote: Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing. In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions: Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before) Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight) Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote: Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote: I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me). I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that. Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote: People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. I'm pretty sure at least 1-2 of these players are Mafia. If you four want to clear yourselves in my eyes, something major needs to happen. I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. I also want to see his response, though, but I don't know what would convince me otherwise at this point (I guess an EVEN stronger Mafia read on someone else, which isn't an easy feat to achieve!). On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote: Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him. Still, he's not the best lynch target for now. I say ArcticFox and Dittert are our best Mafia reads at the moment. Anyone else want to vote? ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote: The Blue Shift In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions: Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before) Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight) Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote: Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote: I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me). I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that. Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. ##Vote: Xatalos Alright... I can't say your case doesn't have some merit, but I have to disagree with some points. Also, I'm glad you actually made a thought-out case against me (compared to the lackluster case you made earlier). 1) I was certainly somewhat over-analyzing blue/policy talk in the beginning (for partly meta reasons), but you have to consider that there wasn't much else suspicious going on at that point. It was the MOST suspicious thing I saw happening at the time, so although talking about policy lynching or blue roles early on Day 1 isn't the best Mafia tell, it was something to start with and possibly force Mafia slips (either from the target, from the people jumping on the bandwagon or from the people defending the target). I may have used some excessively strong words against ArcticFox for example, but pressure isn't really pressure if I just vaguely say "you might be a bit suspicious" or something, right? If I had to lynch at that exact moment, I would have lynched ArcticFox because nothing more suspicious had been said yet (in my opinion), but my opinion on him started to slowly shift and was pretty much a townie read during the night. 2) Speculating about blue powers may not be nearly as useful as talking about Mafia reads (and it would certainly be something easy for Mafia to talk about), but I did that for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to get yomi Vigi shot to kill my strongest Mafia read right away and to resolve the doubt surrounding the events of Day 1. B) I wanted to ensure both I and Acrofales would live to see Day 2: I don't know if there is both a Jailer and a Doctor, but I figured Mafia wouldn't dare to shoot either me or Acrofales after I made that open suggestion. The Jailer and/or Doctor could then freely heal whoever they liked, and I and Acrofales would be most likely protected by the sheer fear of the Mafia to prevent wasting their valuable KP. The longer the game goes on, the better for town, so not getting to kill anyone is a hard blow for Mafia (even the risk of it would make them think twice before shooting me or Acrofales). 3) My play has been quite "all over the place" and a bit spammy, and I can try to post less and with more certainty, but I don't feel like it's a good idea to just wait until there is a very strong case able to be made. If we just wait in silence while nobody says matters of relevance, or anything, waiting for a really strong suspicion before saying anything... Mafia could just play passive and do nothing noticeable. There even was something like this in a guide: "Polite and careful play is the downfall of many town teams." The same can be said for spam, of course, and maybe I have been a bit too much on the side of aggression and spam. But I still feel like it's better than to wait in silence and only post when you have a very solid case against someone (where would that case be made from, if everyone just talked politely and never started accusing each other?). I have also one other thing to say. I know this might seem weird, but I came up with a theory about why Willz and yomi could both well be town. I was most suspicious of yomi as I went to sleep, but as I was waking up I came up with a theory I feel could potentially make a lot of sense. I don't want to say it out loud yet, though (I have a good reason, but if there is a lot of demand, I can do it... although I don't know if it's a wise move right now). Considering the chance yomi is town, I'm not absolutely sure who I would want to push for now. Dittert has definitely been useless, but IF he flips town, we are in a pretty bad spot (his town flip would reveal pretty much nothing new, and only his Mafia flip would be useful for us). So this is a play I would call as "high risk, high reward". On the other hand, I wouldn't definitely want to have someone like Dittert with me in a lategame situation of 3 town & 2 Mafia, for example. So his lynch isn't a total waste in any case, although it would only give new information in case he flipped Mafia. Since I don't have a very strong Mafia read at the moment, I might as well also vote for Dittert and hope for the best.... ##Vote: Dittert | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Dittert | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
I can't really count yomi as a lurker anymore, since he has posted a lot during the end of day 1 and night 1. HiroPro has also become a bit more active. That leaves only Dittert and Funcmode as real lurkers. I have pretty much lost my hope on Dittert at this point, but Funcmode, you should step up now. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
KharadBanar's Comprehensive Scum Probability List™ Okay, I promised you a comprehensive post of reads at Daybreak so here are my completely reworked thoughts of the current situation. I have applied the logic I proposed to Xatalos earlier and made them percentage based on what probability I think they have to be scum right now. The percentages add up to (roughly) 300%, for the three scum members currently in the game. We have 10 players left in total (9 if you don't count me, whom I know is town), so a null read means 3/9 = 33% scum probability. Also, a fair warning: Clicking all the links to other posts in this monster probably leads to you rereading half the thread, exactly as I did while writing this. ArcticFox - 0% BroodKingEXE - 0% These two are included for the sake of completeness - we know they are confirmed town because they flipped. KharadBanar - 0% Nothing huge to say here either. Note these probabilities are based upon what I can see in the game, therefore I have the 0% by my name. Every other town player sees some nonzero percentage for me and 0% for himself, but I obviously can't reflect the views of everyone in this chart since I don't know your opinions as well as my own. Acrofales - <5% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + Opens by suspecting me, I defend myself well enough and he proceeds to drop the case and contributes more to the discussion. He goes around ##FoSing Dittert and yomi, never forgetting to back his accusations up with quotes and arguments. Later, we get a nice semi-case against HiroPro, but it gets not much notice in comparison to his case against willz22912 a bit later which is actually strong enough to convince other people to join him. He sadly isn't around for the conclusion of Day 1, but more than makes up for it during the Night, where he engages in productive discussion around blues and night shots. The night is rounded off by him posting his reads in a fashion not quite unlike this post. Has been one of the most contributing posters so far. He doesn't shit up the thread and always has something new to say to the discussion. If scum were to try to look town, they most likely would at least try to repost old arguments/opinions in a new form, which I honestly can't say Acrofales did. vonKlaust - 10% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + Early on, we have a case made by ArcticFox which points out a "filter full of useless junk" from him. His defense is reasonable, and since this was in the early phase of Day 1 where nobody really had a grip on the other players, I don't think it is of much importance now. Later, he points out some fallacies in Xatalos' thoughts about imallinson which we could see as pretty normal if that was now, but he was pretty much the first person to do so - this receives townie points because Mafia would probably just let Xatalos spout random opinions and leave him alone because it's going to confuse the town. About halfway through Day 1, he is asked to post some reads and responds by giving willz22912 as his top town read and saying he's suspicious of HiroPro. He then proceeds to read willz's filter and gets a bit suspicious. This is also a townslip in my mind, because it's more likely for mafia to be set in their ways about a player without needing to read their filter first, having the knowledge of their alignment given beforehand. (It's not impossible for scum to be a little waffly, though) Next thing that happens is that Xatalos actually full-on accuses vonKlaust of being "indecisive and unproductive", to which vonKlaust retorts pointing out Xatalos' confirmation bias. This evolves into a full-on argumentative discussion with HiroPro where vonKlaust stayed calm and used logic. The next (RL) day, Acrofales has already posted his case on willz, to which vonKlaust responds by not mindlessly bandwagoning but adding his own thought on the matter. This is also something pretty town to do in my mind. During the slight chaos that ensued with the voting for willz, yomi and BroodKingExe, he did what the "normal" player in this game did and jumped from willz to yomi to BroodKingEXE. Null to me. Night 1, vonKlaust voices his thoughts on the Dittert vs willz situation (pointing out a willz scumslip, albeit with slight confirmation bias) as well as asking Xatalos to be less aggressive. Conclusion: most likely townie, but could do with slightly less EBWOWOBOB as he calls it (EBWOP) and maybe less one-liners. But then again, my filter is also full of those, so I shouldn't be hyprocritical. imallinson - 20% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + Begins the game not doing very much. He agrees with Xatalos' case on ArcticFox and adds a bit to it, then supports Acrofales' slight pressure against me, then talks a little more about ArcticFox. This seems like a slight case of tunneling, but nothing too major especially seeing as it came in the first half of Day 1 when we had little filter material to go by. He brings up lurker discussion, then brings up Xatalos' aggressiveness as a town trait which I don't agree with, but at least I see how somebody could think so. After ArcticFox managed to defend himself quite well, imallinson proceeds to pressure against trumpetarn to get answers out of him (spoiler alert: It isn't very successful. trumpetarn manages to make exactly one post in response to it. During the second half of Day 1, Xatalos accuses him in typical Xatalos fashion, then imallinson puts up an okay-ish defense, nothing much comes out of that case. He is also involved in the mislynch of BroodKingEXE, but I again don't think that says much of anything. At Night, he gets a little more concrete and posts his reads as well as a nice case against Dittert (another one, but based on the new evidence Dittert has posted at the beginning of the night, it's pretty good to have). Day 2, he runs with that and votes for Dittert. If we hadn't got enough scumreads already, it would be easy for me to tunnel on you and make a case out of the amount of waffling in your filter like Xatalos usually does, but there are so many people who are more likely scum than you that you don't end up as more than a null read to me. HiroPro - 25% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + His first post is a response to my weak pressure voting at the start. You can get a sense of how fail that pressure vote was when you consider that the next posts have no substance whatsoever and Hiro goes back to lurking again for three hours. After that, he actually posts a case and votes against Xatalos on the basis of him being too aggressive; he later calls Dittert a newb townie rather than mafia here and defends himself against BroodKingEXE who accused him of bandwagoning onto Xatalos. After Xatalos' vonKlaust case, Hiro agrees with him and joins his vonKlaust vote. He proceeds to have a little argument with vonKlaust, then unvotes him because vonKlaust did defend himself reasonably. Ending the day, HiroPro arrives just in time to jump on the tail end of the BroodWagon, however not without giving his own opinion on the subject which is more than I expected from a typical lurker at that point. Today, he posted a case on Xatalos which, though I don't necessarily agree with a high probability of Xatalos being mafia, presents a reasonable and thought out line of reasoning for a scum Xatalos. He doesn't always post, but when he does, it's generally thought out and agreeable. I don't know if that makes him The Most Interesting Poster In The World, but it certainly doesn't make him scum per se. I actually begin to see a scum consistency after reading his last post and looking at Xatalos' filter. He is a null read in my book, and because we have probable mafia targets aplenty in our current situation, my Null Read Scum Probability Level has dropped from 33% (3/9) to about 25%. Funcmode/trumpetarn - 25% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + He once posted. A big question mark in my book. That's it, I'm done and I'm giving him a null read. willz22912 - 40% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + The first real contribution is him pointing out a bad case by Xatalos on ArcticFox, which is entirely justifiable. Later, Dittert makes his first case on him and he explains himself, slightly OMGUSsing Dittert in the process. His first real read is a scum read on imallinson, at the same time stating he thinks Dittert to be a newb town instead of scum. Again fully understandable at that point in the game. Soon, a bit of an OMGUS war starts between Dittert and willz and other people are lead to the belief that willz is scum, most importantly because of a really good case by Acrofales. He manages to defend himself a bit, then posts a case against BroodKingEXE which I proceed to inspect closely and see some holes in it. After that, he defends himself well enough that I retract my vote against him. Shortly after that, he goes really emo on himself, only to let the others convince him of going for yomi shortly thereafter. This is the last we hear of him Day 1, he was not a participant in the BroodWagon. At Night, there is a useful read post from him as well as some defense against a case by vonKlaust, and some more defense against further inquisition by Xatalos. willz has probably had to defend himself the most of all the players in this game, and he always has some explanation for his actions. Despite this, these explanations are far from the only ones for his behaviour. He makes slip-ups often enough to at least reasonably assume that he is indeed a Mafia member who is just really good at finding townie motivations for his actions. This is however no strong accusation, it is still more likely he is town in my eyes. Xatalos - 40% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + His doesn't even mess around with his first post, quickly putting up a case against ArcticFox. About twenty minutes later, he gets even more aggressive and puts up two other suspicions - yomi and imallinson. A little later, the FoS goes to me for my failed pressure vote on HiroPro. I defend myself a bit pointing out his aggressiveness in making suspicions, and he proceeds to call this pointing out of aggressiveness a "case", responding to it with a bit of a strawman argument. He FoSes HiroPro for suspecting him (again pointing out his aggressiveness), goes on defending his aggressive playstyle and gets his ArcticFox case picked apart by Acrofales. A little later, he suddenly gets suspicious of vonKlaust whom I had a townie feeling about even at that point. vonKlaust defends himself and Xatalos steps off the case, expressing his suspicion of imallinson again. imallinson responds, and Xatalos respects that. His next suspicion arises when Acrofales posts his willz case: Xatalos runs with it, adding his thoughts to the case. After yomi's first large case against Dittert, he promptly votes for yomi, giving three pretty good reasons for it. In fact, this case was so good that he convinced half the town to vote with him before people stormed off to BroodKingEXE for his "scumslip". Also one of the persons to hop on the BroodWagon. At Night, Xatalos is very vocal in directing blue roles while simultaneously softclaiming vanilla townie (he asks the Jailer to act on him that night.) This is a slightly suspicious action because if he is scum, he can draw the Jailer onto him and then have another scum member perform the night action, making it look like he is confirmed town when actually he isn't. Of course the play also makes much sense from a Vanilla Townie perspective, but it's slightly wasting the Jailer action for that night so I wouldn't do it in his position as a VT. He gets called out by yomi for suspecting many people and writes a reasonable reply. He then continues to post walls of text during the night, writing out in detail his thoughts about different aspects of the game. Later, there's another case on yomi. This leads to another vote on yomi as Day 2 begins. After an accusation from HiroPro, he posts a rather wordy defense, reflecting reasonably about his previous plays and consolidating his vote on Dittert. In Xatalos, I see a player who gets suspicious of other people pretty fast, but that is not necessarily a bad attidude for a town player to have. The problem he has is tunnelvisioning on the bad aspects of other players, im some cases not seeing a town motivation for certain actions when there is one. He has addressed this and is aware of it, but as long as he doesn't act on it and stops actually tunneling, I'll be suspicious of him. Be aware that much of his play makes equally as much sense from a scum perspective, assuming a somewhat leading position in the town and confusing people by putting out suspicions on town players. yomi - 60% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + His first real contribution comes in at a point where most people already have posted their first reads. It's for Dittert and has no reasoning behind it, which is instant suspicion in my eyes. Later, he accuses people of pointless discussion, having contributed next to nothing himself. His first case (against Dittert) comes at a time where Day 1 is already on the way to its conclusion and it's not that well thought out, but at least there's a [newb] townie explanation for it: He and Dittert have been fighting the whole day over little things, so it's understandable for yomi to get emotional and tunnel a bit. After receiving quite a bit of flak from Xatalos, he goes against him as well. Shit hits the fan after some time, with Xatalos convincing more and more people that yomi is actually mafia. In a desperate maneuver, yomi votes for his greatest town tell, willz to save himself from getting lynched that day. This action does not save him, however something else does: The BroodWagon comes along and yomi is the first to vote for BroodKingEXE. After BroodKingEXE flips, Xatalos suspects yomi once more, yomi retorts by pointing out his tunneling. Xatalos has spent the past hours only with speaking against yomi and BroodKingEXE at this point (and saving willz to lynch yomi). He then accuses Xatalos of suspecting too many different targets, something that's also very true. This is continued with two lengthy defense posts on Xatalos which I don't see too much wrong with at this point. After that, he declares the Xatalos situation done with and goes back to accusing Dittert. We are now getting to the scummy regions of my read scale: In the beginning, I thought yomi was a really easy mafia read with the amount of accusations he put out without really backing them up. His night defense against Xatalos has made me slightly more unsure of that, especially when combined with Hiro's case on Xatalos. I strongly believe there is a scum somewhere in that pairing, but I'm not exactly sure which of them. I'm still leaning on yomi though. Dittert - 75% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + At first Dittert just seemed newb townie with his random lynch proposal which quickly got torn apart. The first [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14319138]case he made was against willz, who was something of an easy target at the time with his opinions on policies. I don't value policy opinions that much when I'm thinking about possible scum reads, because a "wrong" opinion can easily mean that someone is town but simply hasn't thought about things that much. As soon as yomi makes himself suspicious later in the day, he makes a [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14323933]case[/url] against him, which I probably would have made too if I were scum, considering how easy it is to get town cred with a bus on a buddy who's looking not to live very long at that point. If Dittert is scum and yomi is town, it also makes sense because scum can force a situation similar to the BroodWagon at this point. Then there is a [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14324538]case[/url] on willz where he says "I will engage you because I want you to slip up some more as mafia". You can also do this on a townie to force him to say some things he will later regret, since you can easily quote them out of context. The case itself is not that bad, but it's not the most convincing of cases either. Later in the day, he [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14332256]votes[/url] for willz on the basis of his case. He does not switch to the BroodWagon later that day. However, the most damning post in my mind is the [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14338722]one[/url] he made after the BroodKingEXE lynch: It's full of OMGUS against practically the whole town for engaging in his lynch, when a town Dittert probably would have done the same had he been at home during the time where BroodKingEXE made his slipup. As of late, he seems to have followed willz from the last day in [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14348189]going all emo on himself[/url]. Since Dittert made the last night's post, he really slipped from newb town to full-on scum in my mind. There is no way I'm going to justify not contributing to the discussion and accusing the whole town of bad play. He is my number one lynch target for today and I'm glad to see that the current state of discussion seems to agree with me. ##Vote: Dittert FINISHING THOUGHTS One thing I want to mention that I haven't got the possibility to in my filter analysis is the fact that now ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE are confirmed town, we probably should look through what they had to say about the game and take it into consideration, because with their opinions we have no chance of getting biased by mafia wanting to fool us. Especially ArcticFox's filter looks like a good place to start for me. I will not do this now however, since I have spent the last six hours looking through filters and I really need a break right now. I hope this post by me will get discussion going a bit since I have invested so much time in it now. Enjoy! Funcmode, welcome to our thread. I hope you can use this post as a good recap of what happened so far if you haven't kept up with it. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + At first Dittert just seemed newb townie with his random lynch proposal which quickly got torn apart. The first case he made was against willz, who was something of an easy target at the time with his opinions on policies. I don't value policy opinions that much when I'm thinking about possible scum reads, because a "wrong" opinion can easily mean that someone is town but simply hasn't thought about things that much. As soon as yomi makes himself suspicious later in the day, he makes a case against him, which I probably would have made too if I were scum, considering how easy it is to get town cred with a bus on a buddy who's looking not to live very long at that point. If Dittert is scum and yomi is town, it also makes sense because scum can force a situation similar to the BroodWagon at this point. Then there is a case on willz where he says "I will engage you because I want you to slip up some more as mafia". You can also do this on a townie to force him to say some things he will later regret, since you can easily quote them out of context. The case itself is not that bad, but it's not the most convincing of cases either. Later in the day, he votes for willz on the basis of his case. He does not switch to the BroodWagon later that day. However, the most damning post in my mind is the one he made after the BroodKingEXE lynch: It's full of OMGUS against practically the whole town for engaging in his lynch, when a town Dittert probably would have done the same had he been at home during the time where BroodKingEXE made his slipup. As of late, he seems to have followed willz from the last day in going all emo on himself. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On April 15 2012 10:20 imallinson wrote: We definitely shouldn't ditch the discussion and if a better candidate comes up we should lynch them. However, I for one am not going to let someone martyr themselves as an easy out. Can you explain the underlined part here a little better? Are you saying you will or will not let Dittert martyr himself? I have no idea what Dittert's plan is for doing this as town considering if we mis-lynch again and lose another town during the night it's going to be 5-3 D3, which is pretty much mylo for town. I can't believe I'm saying this, but can we please look at someone else besides Dittert? A lot of you have considered Yomi as the second most suspicious person in your minds (and voted him before the Broodwagon instead of me) but now are willing to go ahead and go after Dittert? Why make cases against me and Yomi in the first place if you're not going to follow through? And before you call me out Xatalos for pointing out how you tunneled Yomi, I'm not specifically going to ask you to switch back to Yomi and resume your tunneling. I'm more interested in the other players and why the majority vote today is Dittert when we have 31 hours left and no other discussion is occurring about alternate vote targets except for HiroPro's case against Xatalos. Are you all willing to gamble that Dittert is really a newb town all along and this play along with Brood's is going to make it nigh unwinnable for town if we mis-lynch? @Yomi we haven't had much of a direct interaction before, but you have supported me in the past. Why do you think I'm town so much when most everyone else thought I wasn't?(until I was about to be lynched and posted all the things I did) I can see from your filter that you've said this is also your first mafia game ever as well and that you got angry a lot against Xatalos' tunneling you, similar to how I got angry over Dittert doing the same. Is this the reason why you think I'm town as well, because we're both had similar experiences with tunneling? I really don't know what to think of you at this point, I think you're town, but everyone else seems to think you're highly suspicious, it would be good to dispel some of that by responding to this and what you think of anyone else besides Dittert and Xatalos. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote: The Blue Shift In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions: Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before) Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight) Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote: Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote: I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me). I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that. Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. ##Vote: Xatalos I think this case against Xatalos has merit, while I am inclined to believe that Xatalos is town for trying to offer a fellow town the solution to save himself (me changing my vote to Yomi and convincing others to do the same) He could also be Mafia and know that we were both town, and just happy with getting a mis-lynch on either of us and then skating the fallout. This part is complete WIFOM though and I don't really want to base a case around that, but it's still something to think about. Other than the WIFOM part, I agree that Xatalos rambling about blue roles is pretty unhelpful and downright malicious to town. This is a newbie game setup, I can only speculate as to what roles are actually present, but in Newbie V the only blue role present was a Medic, and we had a miller among us as well, that was it, 2 power roles out of 12 people. It is not conceivable to assume that we also only have 1-2 roles as well, instead of the many you seem to be trying to direct, especially during night. Blue roles should act independently with their own judgement and reads, telling them what to do only helps Mafia (as ArcticFox points out in his filter from arguing with Xatalos during the night) We can't learn much from Brood's filter obviously, but Arctic definitely had some good points to make, and I think he would have been fine with supporting a lynch on Xatalos based on how he acted during the night. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17898 Posts
On April 15 2012 07:12 ArcticFox wrote: *sigh* I'm still loathe to talk about blue roles, but if you insist... If the vig shoots someone the mafia is highly unlikely to kill, only then would the claim before deadline would be safe. I'd likely wait until *after* night 1 resolves, in case they shot the same target, then vig still has the bullet and hasn't claimed unnecessarily and takes no chance at being roleblocked. Since we won't know the kill flavors, any other play seems like a bad move. Any counterclaims would work themselves out by the Day 3 lynch, so the timing of the claim is more or less irrelevant. For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder. If you can go back through your filter and go, "wow, this actually can be read as REALLY scummy," then you're causing part of the confusion. Stop and read the filters. Make a solid, logical case. Post it. Read the counterarguments and see if they make sense or if they're full of crap. Be open and transparent with your reads. Anything else is just making the mafia's job easier and the town's job harder. I really hope our Day 2 is more productive. We spent so much time arguing with each other, and then getting no actual info from the lynch that Day 1 was nearly a complete waste. I feel like the night flips will give us something better to work with, and hopefully a fresh start for all of us. This means: if you are town, step up your game. Be active today. We have 3 scum left and I really want N2 to start with only 2 scum left. At the moment, we are lynching into Dittert, Yomi, Xatalos, Willz and imallison, which is just too many people. I actually think Dittert's final post was quite townie. It reminded me quite a bit of bluelightz (in any game he plays town): not contributing, but angry when everybody else screws it up. My question is: does the anger and frustration in his post feel genuine to you? I am inclined to think it's genuine and that, counterintuitively lowers the chance of him being scum. What he HAS managed to do is kill all D2 discussion. Lets discuss our other targets. Funcnode, you're new to the thread. Can you give us some analysis from the outside on what you think of the goings on so far? | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 16 2012 01:16 willz22912 wrote: Can you explain the underlined part here a little better? Are you saying you will or will not let Dittert martyr himself? I have no idea what Dittert's plan is for doing this as town considering if we mis-lynch again and lose another town during the night it's going to be 5-3 D3, which is pretty much mylo for town. My thoughts are basically that Dittert is my #1 scum read at the moment, yomi is #2 and you and Xatalos are tied for #3 at this point. If someone makes a case that replaces Dittert as my #1 of course I will change my vote. What I mean my not letting him martyr himself as an easy way out is that his martyring hasn't dropped my suspicion of him at all. If he had done what you had done and actually posted stuff that was useful to the town I would be more inclined to think he was town. The fact he basically said I'm off you guys are on your own and even suggested bringing the day 2 deadline forward makes me think he wants as little discussion going on as possible which seems exceptionally scummy to me. I honestly think he is scum who knows he is dead and is allowing his team to bus him to stop town getting any useful disscusion going day 2. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 16 2012 01:42 Acrofales wrote: This means: if you are town, step up your game. Be active today. We have 3 scum left and I really want N2 to start with only 2 scum left. At the moment, we are lynching into Dittert, Yomi, Xatalos, Willz and imallison, which is just too many people. I actually think Dittert's final post was quite townie. It reminded me quite a bit of bluelightz (in any game he plays town): not contributing, but angry when everybody else screws it up. My question is: does the anger and frustration in his post feel genuine to you? I am inclined to think it's genuine and that, counterintuitively lowers the chance of him being scum. What he HAS managed to do is kill all D2 discussion. Lets discuss our other targets. OK, I'll start: If we want to put two or three scum into the five of Dittert, yomi, Xatalos, willz22912 and imallinson, we have to consider some interactions between them. yomi has warred on Day 1 with Dittert, Xatalos and willz pretty hard, and during the night he has argued quite a bit with Xatalos about his aggressive posting style. This means that Dittert/yomi, Xatalos/yomi and willz/yomi are less likely to be scum together; if they are, yomi is putting on a pretty nice bus. Dittert/willz is an even less likely scum pair, because they went at each other when scum would really have had no reason for it. I didn't consider imallinson to be that scummy of a player, but looking at his filter again I see where you're coming from. I wouldn't however be very confident lynching him. This means I would try to fit two scum into the four of Dittert, yomi, Xatalos and willz, and because of their interactions with one another I would lean on Xatalos and one of willz and Dittert. This is however under the assumption that there wasn't a mafia bus on Day 1. If we include that possibility, we have the following: Dittert/willz is a really really unlikely bus pair like I described above. Dittert/yomi is only slightly more likely, because I feel like they're pretty new players even if they're scum and I don't think really new players would have the balls to bus that hard. yomi/willz is still an unlikely bus, seeing as each of them voted for each other to save himself, but it's at least thinkable for me. yomi/Xatalos is a pair which I wouldn't describe as that unlikely, because if Xatalos is scum, the easy way for him to get some credibility is to accuse his really scummily behaving team member. I have the feeling a scum bus could naturally evolve from that. That means placing 2 scum in the four players of Dittert, Xatalos, willz and yomi means that Xatalos is pretty likely to be scum if we accept the assumption that there are 2 scum in there in the first place. Conclusion: ##FoS: Xatalos I won't step off my Dittert vote just yet, because I still don't feel his vote from the beginning of Day 2 redeems himself to be town. | ||
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