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On April 15 2012 01:21 Acrofales wrote:
Once again. Stop assuming that claiming a vigi shot is a good way for a vigi to get town credit. Mafia can use this easily to gain town credit too (at the very least until N2, when kill flavours may not line up).
I don't think Mafia would be up for such a huge risk. Imagine this: player A (Mafia) claims he is a Vigilante and that he shot yomi (based on my suggestion). However, the real Vigilante decided to shoot somebody else after all. Player B (Vigilante) shot player C, and everyone sees now that player A was lying - even if it were possible for there to be two Vigilantes (which I find very unlikely) everyone would know that player A is Mafia pretending to be Vigilante.
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/facepalm. How does anybody know that player B is telling the truth and player A is lying? How is this any less wifomy than having unclaimed kills? Does a true roleclaim come with a message from god that assures us it is gospel truth? Also, 2 vigis doesn't seem farfetched. The distribution of blue roles is equally wifomy. We may not have a medic, so have a second vig to make up for it? Or anything like that? Don't even start down that road, wifom is pointless.
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Also, I am starting to see more and more why veterans tend to keep quite quiet at night. All we're doing is giving mafia ideas.
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On April 15 2012 01:43 Acrofales wrote:
/facepalm. How does anybody know that player B is telling the truth and player A is lying? How is this any less wifomy than having unclaimed kills? Does a true roleclaim come with a message from god that assures us it is gospel truth? Also, 2 vigis doesn't seem farfetched. The distribution of blue roles is equally wifomy. We may not have a medic, so have a second vig to make up for it? Or anything like that? Don't even start down that road, wifom is pointless.
Hmm, okay, it's indeed quite a bit of WIFOM. I must wonder though, why did SLJ claim his Vigi shot in GOT if it's such a bad idea? Here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3 At the time it seemed very reasonable for me, but when you put it like you just did, it doesn't seem all that wise. Did SLJ just make a bad play or what?
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This is the last time I will respond to you for the near future. This is a waste of time and energy
With those two arguments trashed, there are still a lot of reasons to believe you are Mafia:
Aka no matter what happens I am mafia in your eyes.
Yet your "bigger contribution" was merely another case against Dittert, at a timing where you would slip by unnoticed almost certainly. You did mention the possibility of Dittert playing dumb to distract us, which is a plausible idea, but not enough to make your existence for the whole 48 hours useful. You really think lurking for 40 hours and then posting one, small new idea at an awkward timing is pro-town play?
Merely another case against a player that I thought was mafia, and still think is mafia. Should I have played more like you? Keep accusing different players? Bounce around between 10 different accusations? How is sticking to one guy that everyone is slowly starting to agree is mafia not contributing. Instead of one small (good) idea should I post 20 ideas that all contradict each other and confuse people? How am I lurking for 40 hours? This is not close to a factual statement. What about hiropro? He posted WAY less than me yet you don’t seem to care about him at all.
2) Considering the scenario where you are Mafia and Willz is town, it would just make so much sense for you to leisurely claim Willz's innocence and then go back to lurking while Willz gets lynched. That way you would get a more townie impression for the next day and a powerful weapon to go after the people who pushed for Willz's lynch, without appearing suspicious yourself. Now, of course there are other possibilities: you could be both town, both Mafia, or Willz could be Mafia and you town. I have explained earlier why I don't feel like Willz is a very likely Mafia at the moment, which leaves us at the possible scenarios (in my eyes) of both town or you Mafia & Willz town.
Consider the scenario where I am town and believe but am not sure willz is town. It would just make so much sense to put in a vote of confidence for the guy as I have done before while realizing that I’m not sure that he really is town. It’s just a hunch. Just like your hunches. That way I would decrease the chances that a player I think is town is lynched while not saying things that are not true like that I am 100% sure he is town. This is amazing confirmation bias.
This is just an extremely meek and vague attitude towards the whole event. Look at what I did: Willz didn't strike me as Mafia, so I focused all my energy on getting a better Mafia read lynched instead of him. Then look at what you did yourself: you were much more certain of Willz's innocence than I was, yet you put in zero effort to get someone else (Dittert, for example?) lynched. Why would you be so disinterested in your best town read getting lynched right in front of you? And it looks like you just ignored the case Acrofales made against him and casually said "btw, Willz is town for sure, by all means lynch him and see I was right tomorrow!". If you are town, your attitude is pretty disturbing... There is a small possibility of you just being lazy / confused, but it doesn't make nearly as much sense as the scenario of you Mafia & Willz town.
So here I am both meek and vague but also sure that willz is town and defend him saying I am 100% sure he is town but also as the same time don’t do anything to stop the lynch. Statements like this are why I am no longer responding to you for the near future. What do you want from me? Sorry I am not good at drawing long convoluted arguments from the almost zero information we had on day1 like you are.
You are basically attacking me for being concise and consistent. Whose posting style is more anti-town? Mine or yours?
I was more certain of willz innocence than you were? WHAT? You just said my statement was vague. Which is it. Vaguely alluding that I think he is innocent or declaring that I know for sure he is 100% innocent. Look at my statements in defense of willz. Look at yours:
On April 14 2012 04:33 Xatalos wrote:
At this point, I'm not very confident in Willz being Mafia, since his latest posts have been very insightful and relevant. I would rate his current play as very pro-town. yomi's play I would rate as very anti-town.
On April 14 2012 04:39 Xatalos wrote:
I now have such a strong Mafia read on yomi, that I can't really see myself being mistaken
On April 14 2012 04:54 Xatalos wrote:
I can't see a possible situation where both Willz and yomi would be Mafia. .
But I am the one that is certain willz is innocent? I am the one setting myself up to claim that I was right all along when/if willz flipped town?
So the only pro town thing I could do if I'm attacked is to go after someone else? I did, I stuck on dittert until there was a way to save myself by going brood who I had already suspected at the time. How fervently do you want me to go after dittert when there was I think maybe one other vote for the guy at the time? I think only I was still on him. The only way to protect myself was to defend myself against your accusations but that is being overly defensive I guess. The only town thing to do is to lash out? That's your argument? Not try to stop a townie (me) from being lynched?
I will try to accuse as many people as possible tomorrow for as many reasons as possible. Maybe then you will stop your crusade against me. Doubtful and I refuse to confuse the town like that.
3) Your response to my accusations was extremely defensive and panicked. Your defence consisted of A) personal insults against me B) WIFOM about Mafia's inner relations C) desperate comments like "can't believe it has come to this but I must protect myself" - and how do you protect yourself, not by explaining yourself calmly or contributing something at last, but instead by voting for Willz and posting ridiculous WIFOM like this:
My defense is defensive. Why yes xatalos, when you attack me for 5 pages+ my defense is defensive. Only a mafia would defend themselves from a fairly influential player tunneling them by being defensive. A town would defend themselves by flinging accusations at other people? Something you keep demanding I do but I won’t. I won’t mimic your off the walls posting style. I have a few reads and am now going to devote my energy to looking into them further instead of being bullied by you.
Maybe you interpret them as personal insults but I don’t know how else to point out how illogical your posts are other than to say you are illogical. My bad.
Ya I am in a position where I am one vote from being lynched and move to protect myself from being lynched. But only mafia protect themselves from being lynched. A couple of people including you have called this move “too early”. I think I had 4 votes at that time and 5 would pretty much lose it. Ties go to the player to get voted first. So I had to vote first to protect myself. A player one or two votes away from a sure lynch acted to protect themselves too early?
You keep demanding I contribute but I don’t know how to other than to 1 – try to get you off my back so I can figure out the other mafia and 2 – post concisely who I am suspicious of. Sorry I am only suspicious of a few players and don’t pretend to have 100 different reasons for it. You are pressuring me into spamming the thread like you do.
How is it WIFOM to point out that players who act aggressively towards each other are probably not mafia teammates? How can this reasoning be WIFOM but yours is the pinnacle of logic?
Again, this is the last time I will respond to you. I think this is an exercise in futility as I am certain that there is no post I could make or any action I could take that would make you less suspicious of me. You’ve zeroed in for god knows what reason and in doing so have only shown how ridiculous you are and allowed me to analyze you more closely, revealing a pattern of very aggressive and distracting posting.
It’s one thing to speculate on almost every single town player being mafia but you actively try to lead and convince others to go down all these different paths with you. Aka distracting the town.
I’m going to go through others' filters now. I can’t believe how long you have distracted me into posting only in this back and forth with just you.
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On April 15 2012 00:42 Xatalos wrote:
yomi, I concede the fact that you panic-voting for Willz wasn't necessarily a Mafia play.
I must protect myself" - and how do you protect yourself, not by explaining yourself calmly or contributing something at last, but instead by voting for Willz and posting ridiculous WIFOM like this:
he concedes this argument is illogical and then just goes ahead and makes it again. I didn't even catch it until just now.
please go through xatalos' filter guys. it's worth a look.
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@Xatalos: looking over the thread I was reminded of the connection you made between Willz and Yomi. I am not seeing it. Mind explaining it?
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On April 15 2012 02:51 yomi wrote:
How am I lurking for 40 hours? This is not close to a factual statement. What about hiropro? He posted WAY less than me yet you don’t seem to care about him at all.
You didn't really post anything relevant (or much of anything) until the moment where Willz started defending himself. HiroPro has also been lurking, but he hasn't been as useless as you have been so far. I don't still have a town read on HiroPro at all, and he might actually be another good Vigi shot. If you can convince the Vigilante to shoot him, go ahead and try it. Dittert might also be an okayish target, but I'm not as sure about him as you are.
On April 15 2012 02:51 yomi wrote:
I have a few reads and am now going to devote my energy to looking into them further instead of being bullied by you.
The best you can do to stop me from "bullying you" is exactly that: telling about your reads (other than Dittert) and post something useful about them. If you were to flip town right now, you wouldn't really have anything solid (other than your suggestion about Dittert playing dumb purposefully) to examine for tomorrow. Do you think HiroPro might be Mafia? What about imallinson? I'm really hoping you bring something new to the table now. It would be horrible if the Vigi shot you now and A) you flipped town, thus partly wasting the shot B) you would have almost nothing useful in your filter for us.
Of course I can't command the Vigilante to do whatever I want, so your efforts should go to convincing him (and the town in general) rather than just me. The best way to do that is not only reacting to my accusations, but actually playing in a pro-town manner.
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Can we get any more information on how the power roles are decided
Is it totally random? Do you have a preset number of town you want w/ power roles and # of mafia with power roles? Or all this is supposed to be a mystery? Someone not lazy could go through previous newbie mafias and figure this out.
I am trying to think of the marginal benefit/cost of a vig shooting tonight and got to thinking about the odds of if they kill a mafia, whether it be a power role mafia. Is it 2/3 chance to be power role?
Because the marginal benefit of a kill on mafia is
1) potential loss of a power role. less total turns of that power role go out
2) information about who their allies might be.
point 1 gets weaker as the game goes on as we are eliminating less total turns of their ability. point 2 gets stronger as the players will have revealed more about their allegiances.
The benefit/cost of a townie is similar. Lose their ability for a longer part of the game, but see who has been accusing them. Is the chance of a power role townie 4/5? I doubt it.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
@Xatalos
Can you please stop insisting on the vig shooting someone tonight. It's a terrible idea. No one has a solid enough read on anyone to be sure you are hitting scum. The vig shooting town is effectively handing a blue kill to scum, because you shoot a vanilla town and the vig effectively becomes green after using his shot. There is an even worse scenario where the vig shoots another blue and we are down two blues night 1. That isn't a risk we should take. Although that would sure help scum a lot which makes me wonder why you keep insisting on it.
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also the cost of a vig shot is that he can't do it any more. remember one shot per game. it's not hard to imagine an end game scenario where it comes down to pure KP and voting power. on the other hand the vig could be dead by then.
decisions decisions
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On April 15 2012 03:10 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: looking over the thread I was reminded of the connection you made between Willz and Yomi. I am not seeing it. Mind explaining it?
I'm actually more suspicious of him because of his lurking and his WIFOM/desperate "defence" after I made my case, but the original reason I wanted to lynch him was partly that speculation.
I'll try to explain this again. It's not an argument based on hard facts, but rather the weird feeling I got from his case against Dittert earlier.
On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
Dittert is a ridiculous player that puts words in people’s mouths and posts a lot of nonsensical and stupid things. A lot of people had him pegged as noob town and I almost swung over to that belief but I just don’t buy it anymore. I thought he was mafia before and I still think he is. I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.
If yomi were town, I have the feeling he would have been at least a bit more confident with that statement. I can't say it's a definite Mafia slip, but I just get a strong feeling something is off with that. If I saw someone getting bandwagoned whom I thought was town (for example you, Acrofales), I wouldn't just say something like "and I think you guys need to reconsider Acrofales" and then disappear from the thread, leaving you to be lynched freely. I would clearly state why you shouldn't be lynched and push for a better lynch. Of course if I was Mafia, then I would just laugh in the shadows and leave you to be lynched freely while saying just something like "this vote is a mistake, you'll all regret this tomorrow". It would make me look good for the next day, but it would do absolutely nothing to actually save you from the lynch. To me, it looks like this was exactly what yomi did there.
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671
Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case.
The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play.
Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips.
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EBWOP -- Plurality lynch, not majority lynch
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote:
If yomi were town, I have the feeling he would have been at least a bit more confident with that statement. I can't say it's a definite Mafia slip, but I just get a strong feeling something is off with that.
That makes absolutely no sense, if he was mafia he would know 100% that Willz is town. Being town he can have a hunch but not be sure.
On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote:
If I saw someone getting bandwagoned whom I thought was town (for example you, Acrofales), I wouldn't just say something like "and I think you guys need to reconsider Acrofales" and then disappear from the thread, leaving you to be lynched freely. I would clearly state why you shouldn't be lynched and push for a better lynch.
Maybe he doesn't have any actual evidence but it is a weird hunch as you say your thoughts about Willz are. I see no difference between his comment and your apart from being on opposite sides.
On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote:
I'll try to explain this again. It's not an argument based on hard facts, but rather the weird feeling I got from his case against Dittert earlier.
On April 15 2012 03:40 Xatalos wrote:
Of course if I was Mafia, then I would just laugh in the shadows and leave you to be lynched freely while saying just something like "this vote is a mistake, you'll all regret this tomorrow". It would make me look good for the next day, but it would do absolutely nothing to actually save you from the lynch. To me, it looks like this was exactly what yomi did there.
Just because a mafia would do this doesn't mean a town wouldn't you are really straying into so WIFOMy reasoning.
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On April 15 2012 03:44 ArcticFox wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case. The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play. Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips.
Do you think yomi is the best Vigi shot btw? And what do you think about the possibility of the Vigilante to claim his shot at the deadline?
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On April 15 2012 04:04 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 03:44 ArcticFox wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case. The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play. Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips. Do you think yomi is the best Vigi shot btw? And what do you think about the possibility of the Vigilante to claim his shot at the deadline?
*sigh* I'm still loathe to talk about blue roles, but if you insist...
If the vig shoots someone the mafia is highly unlikely to kill, only then would the claim before deadline would be safe. I'd likely wait until *after* night 1 resolves, in case they shot the same target, then vig still has the bullet and hasn't claimed unnecessarily and takes no chance at being roleblocked. Since we won't know the kill flavors, any other play seems like a bad move. Any counterclaims would work themselves out by the Day 3 lynch, so the timing of the claim is more or less irrelevant.
For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder.
If you can go back through your filter and go, "wow, this actually can be read as REALLY scummy," then you're causing part of the confusion. Stop and read the filters. Make a solid, logical case. Post it. Read the counterarguments and see if they make sense or if they're full of crap. Be open and transparent with your reads. Anything else is just making the mafia's job easier and the town's job harder.
I really hope our Day 2 is more productive. We spent so much time arguing with each other, and then getting no actual info from the lynch that Day 1 was nearly a complete waste. I feel like the night flips will give us something better to work with, and hopefully a fresh start for all of us.
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On April 15 2012 01:32 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 23:51 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case.
I want you to explain this part right now. Your logic here is so horrible I can't even decide what to think about it. 1) If you are town, why do you want to die so badly? You can't be 100% certain I am town or 100% certain yomi is Mafia, but you CAN be 100% certain of your own alignment. So, if you actually are town and want to achieve a town victory, why would you ever want to kill the only 100% confirmed town player (yourself)? True, it would give us some new information, but killing yomi would give us equally much information. Even if you're not confident that yomi is Mafia, at the very least he is infinitely more likely to be Mafia than yourself (if you are town yourself). 2) You seem pretty hesitant about killing yomi, yet you want to get yourself killed so that you can "help my case against yomi". I don't see any kind of logic here. Besides, you flipping town wouldn't help my case against yomi especially greatly. It wouldn't make any sense for you two to be Mafia & Mafia anyway (why would yomi casually mention you are town in that case?). Your town flip wouldn't make me significantly more suspicious of yomi than I already am, and then we would have wasted our only Vigi shot on a townie who wants to get himself killed. If you are town, you are 100% confident in your own innocence, so there is zero reason to call for a Vigi shot on yourself. Overall, I don't think you are Mafia based on this, just a townie with a death wish and horrible logic. At least I can't imagine any situation where Mafia would want to get Vigi shot.
My logic is that I think your case against Yomi is bad, and you have only tunneled him without looking at other people. He may be your top scum read but if you can't get a consensus from the rest of the town your read has no weight. If you really want to tunnel Yomi and continue to do so, your case relies on the fact that Yomi did not defend me sufficiently as a fellow town enough.
Both myself and Yomi changed our votes in order to save ourselves, both town or Mafia would make this move. We both know for sure that our self (as in Yomi knows Yomi is town, I know I am town) so 100% read is better than a could be wrong on the other person. I think Yomi is more town than you think, but I was still willing to switch my vote to him to save myself because I know I am town. You can't use this reasoning to explain whether or not he is Mafia.
Regarding my death wish, do you not see that Dittert isn't convinced of my innocence, ArcticFox still has his suspicions, and Acrofales posted the strong case against me in the first place? Thats 3/11 players left who have no inclination to believe in my towniness, meaning I have little to no credibility as town to push a Mafia even if I do find one and make a case. At best the other players see me as neutral, but probably most of them still have a scummy read to me. It would waste another day's time lynching me, the better option would be to vig shot me, even though I know I am town, because a dead townie in my position is better than a scummy looking town alive. I've stated this before when referring to Dittert, a bad town is worth sacrificing rather than keeping him alive. Case in point: BroodKingEXE, I for one don't miss him, even though he was a town, because he pretty much screwed us D1 with getting any information from either Yomi or myself's lynch. None of his filter contains any useful information, and it's his own fault he got himself lynched when he could have easily stayed silent. I don't think many people would miss me as well if I was suddenly killed by Mafia or vig shotted, so that's my logic.
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EBWOB: At best the other players see me as neutral, but probably most of them still have a scummy read on me. Changed bolded part.
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@ Xatalos, in the interest of actually producing a better discussion. Do you have any other scum reads on anyone else besides Yomi? Since you know, there are 3 Mafia? I for one see HiroPro as a heavy lurker who hasn't contributed very much and showed up very late to the Brood lynch when it was already pretty decided. For what it's worth I feel he's someone to keep a closer eye on for more suspicious behavior.
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EPT
