EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 33
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Acrofales
Spain17898 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 15 2012 07:34 yomi wrote: i meant turtle as in heal yourself Here you basically claim you are a Doctor. At first I thought there was no reasoning for a non-Doctor townie to ever say this, so you had to be Mafia (75%) or Doctor (25%). This made me even more suspicious of you, since you had a 75% statistical chance of being Mafia AND I don't think a Doctor would have roleclaimed like that in any case. He would have just healed himself quietly and avoided revealing his role. Then the night actions happened and you were actually alive after that. I'm pretty sure Mafia shot ArcticFox, which meant the Vigi saved his shot or shot someone (likely you) and wasted his shot. Now I thought you might be the Doctor after all. Then I got confirmation from GreYMisT: Doctor can't heal himself. This means you were lying with your post, which doesn't make you look good. At first I thought you were Mafia because of this, but then I thought that maybe you were just a scared townie trying to make the Vigi not shoot you by pretending the shot would be wasted. I'm honestly in total confusion about your alignment right now. I doubt you are the real Doctor, since then you wouldn't roleclaim like this, but you're probably a lying non-Doctor (lying would be natural for Mafia, but perhaps also for a scared townie). I'm pretty confident I can make a good town/Mafia post otherwise, but I just can't figure you out right now. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
You also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
##FoS: Xatalos | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos Update on my Scummiest Players List: 1. Xatalos 2. Dittert 3. yomi 4. willz22912 | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17898 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
I'm working on it. Post will be up soon. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 04:05 KharadBanar wrote: When he said "I might just turtle up tonight" he is meaning this as in "If I were you...". The whole thing is meant as an advice to our blue roles, not as claiming what he did that night. You also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job. Looking closer at that post, you could be right. Here is the post: On April 15 2012 07:28 yomi wrote: as for who to hit with saves this is way too wifom. go for people you are most confident are town? save me from an erroneous vig (i had to try)? the choice is yours and yours alone remember the only person you are 100% sure of is yourself so I might just turtle up tonight. If he means just generally "it's best to heal yourself since you are the only confirmed townie for yourself" then I can accept it. He might also just be mistaken about the fact that you can't heal yourself to begin with... That's not inevitably a lie, since I wasn't sure about that even myself. However, the source of my confusion comes from him using "you" and then "I" in the same sentence. When I looked at that post I thought he meant "you can only be sure of your own innocence, so I'm going to heal myself tonight". If he was just giving (bad) advice, I feel like a total idiot. I have wasted a lot of time considering this post even though it doesn't necessarily mean anything... Sigh. I'll just ignore that post then, at least for now, and make my town/Mafia post next without considering it at all. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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yomi
United States773 Posts
save me from an erroneous vig (i had to try) how could this possibly be me claiming I am a doctor? also note heal yourself your as in you The post is advice for doctors to heal themselves. I was the other person that PMed grey for clarification of the role after I had posted that. Healing the only person you are 100% sure is town is not bad advice. In fact I think it's such a strong play it is the reason why it is not allowed. Or realism reasons. Not trying to start the back and forth again just wanted to clarify. Please use your laser vision on another target and bring us back something good xat | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
Dittert (5): Acrofales, Yomi, imallinson, Dittert, Xatalos Xatalos (3): HiroPro, willz22912, KharadBanar Funcmode and vonKlaust have yet to vote! The Day ends in 26 hours! | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
Dittert: I have up until now thought that he was a newbie townie, and I’ve been standing by that read until his last posts. The way he got all overly defensive and rude really doesn’t look good to me. Especially this part bothers me: Here's my read: you're all a bunch of idiots. Seriously. All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I'll bet you FEEL like you're constantly producing SCV's too, and I bet you're in the bronze league. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). For one thing, it was not idiotic to vote for Brood. What he did was pretty outrageous, and it’s not strange that we chose to change out vote to him. I would have thought it pretty scummy if Dittert hadn’t at least acknowledged the fact that Brood was very likely to be mafia after he made that post which made us all switch to him. Also, I don’t remember anything about anyone talking about what they feel is right. The one thing I can recall was me saying that I felt that Willz defence was reasonable, but that I wasn’t gonna act on my feeling since Willz could just as well be a mafia with good rhetoric. The way he tries to collect town-points by claiming that he was sure Brood was town makes my scum-radar tick. If he would have said this before we lynched Brood it would have made me highly suspicious, and it really doesn’t make it better by saying it in retrospect. I think we did the right thing with Brood. It’s damn easy to say that it was stupid after the fact that he flipped town. I mean seriously, this was all he ever wrote about Brood(as far as I’ve found in his filter anyway): On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: 2. Brood - He's reasonably active, but it's more like a scattershot than a laser. He's asking questions of everyone with seemingly no real agenda. Even though I think Brood is town, I also think he says some really stupid shit. For example: Really? Your innocence will save you? Tell that to the victims of the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem Witch trials. This is NOT enough to call us stupid for lynching Brood. If he is serious about this comment on Brood being stronger than Broods very scummy comment on lynching Willz, then I don’t know what to say to him. Him martyring and acting like an idiot saying stuff like Seriously, kill me. I think it's the most pro-town thing I can do. doesn’t help at all. Verdict: Scum. Yomi: I don’t know man. Most of the time he has been defending himself, and this is not very weird since he has been tunnelled pretty hard most of the game. Maybe if Xatalos could actually give him a chance to post something productive, he would be able to contribute. As far as I can tell he hasn’t contributed all that much to the thread. There is his case on Dittert, but I think that it’s pretty weak. After that Xatalos began tunnelling him to no end. I’m actually starting to lean more towards Yomi being innocent. To me it definitely could be that he has just been to pressured to focus on making reads. On the other hand, it should be clear that it would be better as town to focus on making reads than defending yourself I guess. I have a hard time taking a concrete stance on this guy. It seems he has started to try to contribute more lately too. I’ll keep my eyes on him. Verdict: 50/50 Acrofales: This guy has without a doubt been the biggest contributor to the thread. I have a hard time seeing him being mafia. He has made a couple of really good cases and has been calling people out when he thinks they have been acting badly. To put it shortly: He has been making the best cases so far, and has been the guy to most successfully keep the thread on track. Verdict: Town. Xatalos: In my opinion the most interesting player in the thread. The thing that is bothering me immensely is that I and others for a long time have been trying to make him calm down with his posting. He has not been calming down. This is to me deeply disturbing, and I’m starting to lean towards him being a sneaky, sneaky crook. I’m not the first one to point this out but his posts have been ALL OVER THE PLACE!!! He has done a top notch job in clogging up the thread with useless discussion and tunnelling. On top of that he seems unable to notice his own confirmation bias which is fucking up his cases. Even though he have been accusing pretty much everyone, he always been acting as he is 100% confident in his reads. I called him out on this earlier and he wrote: On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote: I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4. And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias. Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me. Verdict: Scum. Willz: My opinion on him hasn’t really changed. He is still possible scum in my eyes. I’ll watch him closely D2 to see if he shapes his posting up. For right now I’m still suspicious. Still, he seems like a guy who could be useful. I have liked the way he has been calling people out. It’s just the hypocrisy I’m bothered with. Verdict: Scummy. KharadBanar: Kharad has kind of been hovering under my radar since the beginning of the game, and I haven’t really had an opinion on him. However, I like KharadBanar's Comprehensive Scum Probability List™ and I agree with a lot of what he’s saying there. Checking his filter, I think it looks good. I can’t find anything I think is particularly weird. Verdict: Town Imallinson: Reading through his filter he hasn’t really been contributing that much. There is this one: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 15:26 imallinson wrote: Well now the BroodKing thing has settled into my head a bit more I will post my thoughts on the current situation. Honestly this lynch sucks if we had lynched either Willz or yomi we would have got info from it, lynching Brood and him turning town. I'm not entirely sure about Willz's idea about all the scum voting for Brood because absolutely everyone who was here in the hour before voting pretty much instantly switched to Brood. Also it's perfectly possible a scum member wasn't here near the end or was lurking super hard and didn't feel the need to come out of the shadows because the Brood lynch was obviously going through. Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers. Dittert: After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots. I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet. I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for. It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time. People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later). A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing. This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me ##FoS: Dittert yomi: I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you. Xatalos: The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody. Willz: Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out. I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them. vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases. ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus. Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz. KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1. HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people. But that’s pretty much it as far as I can tell. Like Kharad Imallinson have been one I’ve not payed a lot of attention on. I’m unsure. It doesn’t seem he have contributed that much, but I can’t really find anything really bad either. Verdict: Not a town read, but not a scum read either. I’d say this is 50/50. I have to take a closer look at this guy. HiroPro: This guy have been confusing to me from the start. Right now I’m leaning town since he have been stepping up his posting, and he actually starts to seem pretty reasonable. His filter is a bit thin and I would like him to get posting a little more. He was reasonable in our discussion about Xatalos’ case on me, and I like his recent case on Xatalos. Verdict: I’m leaning town on him. 70% town. Conclusion: I’ll be voting for Xatalos for now. I want to put an end to his posting madness, and this vote is gonna stay right here until that happens. If Xatalos starts making more constructive posts, this vote may very well be put on Dittert instead. ##Vote Xatalos | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On April 15 2012 19:06 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote: The Blue Shift In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions: Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before) Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight) Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote: Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote: I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me). I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that. Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction Factor When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. ##Vote: Xatalos Alright... I can't say your case doesn't have some merit, but I have to disagree with some points. Also, I'm glad you actually made a thought-out case against me (compared to the lackluster case you made earlier). 1) I was certainly somewhat over-analyzing blue/policy talk in the beginning (for partly meta reasons), but you have to consider that there wasn't much else suspicious going on at that point. It was the MOST suspicious thing I saw happening at the time, so although talking about policy lynching or blue roles early on Day 1 isn't the best Mafia tell, it was something to start with and possibly force Mafia slips (either from the target, from the people jumping on the bandwagon or from the people defending the target). I may have used some excessively strong words against ArcticFox for example, but pressure isn't really pressure if I just vaguely say "you might be a bit suspicious" or something, right? If I had to lynch at that exact moment, I would have lynched ArcticFox because nothing more suspicious had been said yet (in my opinion), but my opinion on him started to slowly shift and was pretty much a townie read during the night. 2) Speculating about blue powers may not be nearly as useful as talking about Mafia reads (and it would certainly be something easy for Mafia to talk about), but I did that for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to get yomi Vigi shot to kill my strongest Mafia read right away and to resolve the doubt surrounding the events of Day 1. B) I wanted to ensure both I and Acrofales would live to see Day 2: I don't know if there is both a Jailer and a Doctor, but I figured Mafia wouldn't dare to shoot either me or Acrofales after I made that open suggestion. The Jailer and/or Doctor could then freely heal whoever they liked, and I and Acrofales would be most likely protected by the sheer fear of the Mafia to prevent wasting their valuable KP. The longer the game goes on, the better for town, so not getting to kill anyone is a hard blow for Mafia (even the risk of it would make them think twice before shooting me or Acrofales). 3) My play has been quite "all over the place" and a bit spammy, and I can try to post less and with more certainty, but I don't feel like it's a good idea to just wait until there is a very strong case able to be made. If we just wait in silence while nobody says matters of relevance, or anything, waiting for a really strong suspicion before saying anything... Mafia could just play passive and do nothing noticeable. There even was something like this in a guide: "Polite and careful play is the downfall of many town teams." The same can be said for spam, of course, and maybe I have been a bit too much on the side of aggression and spam. But I still feel like it's better than to wait in silence and only post when you have a very solid case against someone (where would that case be made from, if everyone just talked politely and never started accusing each other?). I have also one other thing to say. I know this might seem weird, but I came up with a theory about why Willz and yomi could both well be town. I was most suspicious of yomi as I went to sleep, but as I was waking up I came up with a theory I feel could potentially make a lot of sense. I don't want to say it out loud yet, though (I have a good reason, but if there is a lot of demand, I can do it... although I don't know if it's a wise move right now). Considering the chance yomi is town, I'm not absolutely sure who I would want to push for now. Dittert has definitely been useless, but IF he flips town, we are in a pretty bad spot (his town flip would reveal pretty much nothing new, and only his Mafia flip would be useful for us). So this is a play I would call as "high risk, high reward". On the other hand, I wouldn't definitely want to have someone like Dittert with me in a lategame situation of 3 town & 2 Mafia, for example. So his lynch isn't a total waste in any case, although it would only give new information in case he flipped Mafia. Since I don't have a very strong Mafia read at the moment, I might as well also vote for Dittert and hope for the best.... ##Vote: Dittert This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 16 2012 07:04 HiroPro wrote: This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. I'm starting to be very convinced of Xatalos being scum. I'd say he and Dittert are about equal scum reads now in my opinion. However I am not going to change my vote at the moment because I still think there is a high chance Dittert is scum and I will wait until he gets back and responds (I will probably be asleep when he does but we shall see in the morning). | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
First of all, we have two confirmed townies: ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE. I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. I also know I am town myself. I'm not sure if I should take it into account in my probabilities, but since KharadBanar did so, I'm going to do the same. I would also say that Acrofales, KharadBanar and vonKlaust have been overall so informative, logical and pro-town in their posting, that their chances of being Mafia are pretty close to zero (in my mind). Considering I'm completely unwilling to lynch any of them right now, I'm going to make their chances of being Mafia 0% to make this a bit simpler. What do we have left now? Only 6 players, of which 3 are certainly Mafia. So, even if there would be a random lynch among these 6 players, it would mean a 50% chance of hitting a Mafia. After hitting one Mafia, it would become infinitely easier to find out the remaining Mafia. The real problem is: among these 6 players, everyone is at least somewhat suspicious. I would say there is a reasonable chance for any of these players being Mafia, although some do rise above the others. The average chance (without any other modifiers) to hit a Mafia in this group is 50%, which isn't too bad already. 1/6 is 17%, so I'm going to take that as the starting point and decrease or increase this percentage based on my own thoughts: - Willz: 10% (has made some suspicious moves, but has almost always defended himself in a very pro-town manner by tackling the issues straight at their core and not resorting to WIFOM, distraction, OMGUS or further suspicious moves - he has also contributed to the thread in an informative and logical fashion) - imallinson: 15% (has been mostly flying under the radar, not bringing himself to the forefront unless forced to, and not contributing more than absolutely necessary to continue flying under the radar) - Funcmode: 17% (it's very hard to say anything about him, since he has an empty filter so far - definitely anti-town play, but not necessarily Mafia play) - HiroPro: 18% (has been somewhat lurking and flying under the radar for the whole game, posting very cautiously and warily when he posts at all - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) - yomi: 20% (started off the game with heavy lurking, finally started to post at the conclusion of Day 1 as he was in danger of being lynched, continued to post in Night 1 as he was in danger of being Vigi shot, never really contributed unless forced to, although I find his latest post about Dittert & HiroPro as a Mafia team as interesting and a bit redeeming for him - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) - Dittert: 20% (was useless/anti-town during the whole Day 1, went lurking for the conclusion of the Day 1 lynch, came back after it to accuse everyone who voted for BroodKingEXE - and claimed town credibility for not voting for BroodKingEXE himself, then stopped his already non-existent contribution and martyred himself without even trying to get himself cleared of the lynch - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) All in all, I think it's essential to lynch either Dittert, yomi or HiroPro for today. Earlier I thought Dittert's town flip would be the ultimate bad situation, but actually even that would provide some information. I'll also look a bit at the connections between Dittert, yomi and HiroPro: - Dittert flips Mafia: makes yomi less suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious - Dittert flips town: makes yomi more suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious - yomi flips Mafia: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious - yomi flips town: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious - HiroPro flips Mafia: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes yomi less suspicious - HiroPro flips town: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes yomi more suspicious So, all of these players have a high chance of being Mafia, and lynching any of them would be at least somehow useful even in the case of a town flip. Since the vote is almost tied between me and Dittert at the moment, I'm definitely going to keep my vote on Dittert for the time being. In case he flips Mafia, I'm willing to vote for HiroPro instead of yomi next. In case he flips town, I think I'm going to vote for yomi again. I feel quite stupid for misunderstanding yomi's post so completely, but I'll try to be more observant, calm and logical in the future. If that moment of my stupidity leads to my lynch and thus an easy path to victory for Mafia, I'll be kicking myself in the head on the observer chat along with BroodKingEXE... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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yomi
United States773 Posts
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 16 2012 07:16 yomi wrote: havent read the whole thing yet but 3/6 of the players are mafia according to you as you said so starting % should be 50% I think the percentages are designed to add up to 100%. It would make more sense to add up to 300% seeing as there are 3 scum. I'd just times all the values by 3. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
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