EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 34
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Dittert
United States97 Posts
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funcmode
Australia720 Posts
The people I'm most suspicious of; Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth. Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum. imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos. Semi-suspicious; willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town. Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit. HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name. Least suspicious; vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well. KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now. Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious. Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts. I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more. But for now; ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
I think we are all waiting for dittert, the new guy, and maybe a couple other people to post. Plus not a lot has changed that requires a re-review of earlier posts. I am glad there is MUCH MUCH less spam than yesterday and everyone is being very concise. The new style of posting today is phenomenal. A lot easier to follow the goings-on. On the other hand, I hope the lack of posting is not a sign of lack of interest or motivation. I know for my part it's not, I've been refreshing all night while I do shitty finance homework. I think we are just all on the same page with not much else to say that hasn't already been said. We are only down 2 guys and I really feel we are on the right track today. While there is disagreement on who to lynch I think most of us have both of these guys pretty high up on our lists, at least based on the literal lists that a few people have posted. Who are we better off lynching? I think dittert. IF xatalos is town, he can still contribute. He is at least motivated. I honestly think motivated to cause confusion, but if he did flip town I think it's a bigger loss than dittert. Dittert just seems done with the game. Hopefully not, maybe he is about to come out with something great that we haven't thought of. We'll see. But if everyone is in quiet agreement, we should discuss who is the better target of the two. Maybe a formal ##fos would help us see where we are at. I would like to see if I am correct that we are mostly #1/#2 on these guys. Yes I realize I am some people's #2. If I am right, the decision is worth some thought to try to optimize as much as possible. ##fos: xatalos keeping my vote on dittert for the reason above. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
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Dittert
United States97 Posts
Reading through the filters, I still can't find a more suspicious person than willz. I will now wait a second to allow you to bang your head on your desk and go "seriously, this shit again?" Careful though, don't bang too hard. Despite my previous raging, I don't actually want any of you to hurt yourselves. It's just a game. To start, we have the cases brought against him the first day by Acrofales and myself. Willz never really defends himself fully from Acro's case, instead he just plays the martyr/sympathy card and even admits that Acro's case sounds solid and reasonable. On April 14 2012 04:31 willz22912 wrote: I read through Acrofale's case on me and I see the logic in it because I'm reading an unbiased version of my accounts from a different perspective. I cannot argue against it, it makes sense, I couldn't understand Willz's motive for admitting to the merits of Acro's case, especially after everyone seemed to agree that my case against Willz was OMGUS and meritless. Then it struck me: Confusion. By admitting to the merits of Acro's case, Willz has started you down the WIFOM path. You basically can't help but think "surely a mafia wouldn't admit to the merits of someone else's case against them... but then maybe they know no one would think a mafia would do that... etc., etc." Using WIFOM reasoning is apparently kind of dumb, but instigating that kind of thinking in someone else... it's brilliant. The other thing that struck me as odd is Willz' continued defense of me, despite my constant attacks on him. He's planting evidence that we're on the same team. Here are some posts Willz will quote when I flip town: On April 15 2012 08:29 willz22912 wrote: I really have no idea what the hell Dittert is doing. Should we really ditch all D2 discussion and let this vote go through? If he's going to be modkilled/replaced we may as well look at someone else or at least save him from another day. If we mis-lynch him today and Mafia kill another town again N2 we're at 5-3 D3, going to be hard to win at that point. On April 16 2012 01:16 willz22912 wrote: I can't believe I'm saying this, but can we please look at someone else besides Dittert? A lot of you have considered Yomi as the second most suspicious person in your minds (and voted him before the Broodwagon instead of me) but now are willing to go ahead and go after Dittert? Why make cases against me and Yomi in the first place if you're not going to follow through? And before you call me out Xatalos for pointing out how you tunneled Yomi, I'm not specifically going to ask you to switch back to Yomi and resume your tunneling. I'm more interested in the other players and why the majority vote today is Dittert when we have 31 hours left and no other discussion is occurring about alternate vote targets except for HiroPro's case against Xatalos. Are you all willing to gamble that Dittert is really a newb town all along and this play along with Brood's is going to make it nigh unwinnable for town if we mis-lynch? Setting yourself on my team is ultra-risky right now if you think there's even a chance I might be mafia (and there's a strong general consesus that I just might be). Willz knows his play is safe, however, because being mafia, he knows with 100% certainty that I am town. He's hoping for a Dittert lynch (and that's looking likely at this point) so that he can ride my townie coattails to victory. I also went back and read ArcticFox's filter, since the newbie guides claim that mafia's number one priority should be shooting people who are on the right track. Who was Arctic leaning towards before the Broodwagon occurred? On April 14 2012 01:49 ArcticFox wrote: Right now, willz and yomi seem to be the top 2 lynch candidates, and both strike me as playing scummy. I go back and read through both filters and say to myself, "Can I see mafia posting like this?" and in both cases, there's an inconsistency there that really just screams scum. Then I ask myself the opposite question -- "Can I read this filter and see posting like this if I were town?" For willz filter, as of right now, I can at least talk myself into a case for it. He's asking questions and pointing out flaws, but concealing his own reads. There's a bad reasoning behind it, but I could see a solid line of logic flow between his posts, right up until he got angry at Dittert with no real reasoning (which is really the first time anyone's jumped on him, other than Dittert). For yomi, right now, I can't. There's nothing in yomi's filter but anger, omgus, fluff, and constant repetition of the same point. That's why I can't switch my vote off of him. He's reading a stronger scum than willz right now, and is my primary candidate. However, I'm still eagerly awaiting both of them posting this afternoon. I'm hoping we all get a clearer read from them. Why it's Willz and Yomi! (Arctic's mistake was sounding sane and reasonable, unlike crazy ol' Dittert here, who had the same reads but a much worse way of conveying them.) I still think they're the most likely mafia pair, especially after Yomi spent all of D1 claiming that On April 14 2012 05:28 yomi wrote: What do you want me to say? I am 100% sure willz is town. if you vote for him i am 100% sure you are mafia. is that not empty? wtf... I have avoided the willz debate? I have not defended him? This is a ridiculous accusation. I'm not going to back the guy 100% but I have stated my opinion. I think he's town. I was the first to say he's town. I still say he's town. I guess these are empty one-liners to you but I don't know what to say to that. You want me to take a more hardline stance but I can't. I think the guy is safe. Especially now in these closing hours it just seems more and more town to me. I'll never go 100% and why am I the only one who has to go 100% on a guy? But then later, Yomi denies it. On April 14 2012 07:01 yomi wrote: me and willz led the charge against brood originally now it seems the town's top suspicions are: me willz brood yet us three have attacked each other frequently. Claiming someone is basically "100% town" now passes for "frequent attacks"? Bollocks. As for the third mafia... well, I literally have no idea. I strongly suspected ArcticFox, but that didn't actually pan out.  The rest of you seem to be prattling on like misguided townies.Two closing thoughts, however: Acro - You are probably too good at mafia to be playing in a newb game, just like the mods suggested in the beginning. I suspect you are town, and your instant vote for me wasn't necessarily a belief that I was mafia, but rather a way to gague people's reactions to another seemingly easy bandwagon. That brilliant play did not occur to me until lunch today. Sorry if my martyring messed up any of your reads. If you are actually mafia this game, you are blowing my mind. Xatalos - I am very interested in hearing this theory: On April 15 2012 19:06 Xatalos wrote: I have also one other thing to say. I know this might seem weird, but I came up with a theory about why Willz and yomi could both well be town. I was most suspicious of yomi as I went to sleep, but as I was waking up I came up with a theory I feel could potentially make a lot of sense. I don't want to say it out loud yet, though (I have a good reason, but if there is a lot of demand, I can do it... although I don't know if it's a wise move right now). I really want to hear a theory and a reason that doesn't involve you claiming DT, because if you've blueslipped here, the mafia will surely kill you tonight. The last thing the town needs is a dead DT. Also, surprise, surprise: ##Vote: Willz22912 Have at it. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote: I still think they're the most likely mafia pair, especially after Yomi spent all of D1 claiming that can you clarify how you are reading this quote? do you think I am saying that I think willz is 100% town? | ||
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Dittert
United States97 Posts
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yomi
United States773 Posts
On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote: Claiming someone is basically "100% town" Do you think this is a fair description of my statement? | ||
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Dittert
United States97 Posts
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yomi
United States773 Posts
that didn't go very well lol | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17898 Posts
Dittert: you have gone with willz and yomi again. Any idea of who the third scum would be? Xatalos on the other hand is just digging his hole deeper. ##unvote ##vote: Xatalos Be back in a couple of hours. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
##FOS: HiroPro I'm surprised to see nobody has really talked about my earlier analysis post during this time. Most of all I want to hear your opinions about it: Acrofales, KharadBanar, vonKlaust. You three are nearly confirmed townies in my mind, and have all proved yourselves to be quite useful this game, so I put the most weight in your words at the moment. I'd also like to see how some of my Mafia read targets could counter that post. On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote: I really want to hear a theory and a reason that doesn't involve you claiming DT, because if you've blueslipped here, the mafia will surely kill you tonight. The last thing the town needs is a dead DT. It was just a failed theory based on yomi being Doctor and Willz town, but since I completely misunderstood yomi's post and thought Doctors could heal themselves, it looked like it made a lot of sense at first. I didn't want to reveal this theory not because I had checked yomi's alignment, but because if I was right, yomi would probably be the next night hit target (roleblock+KP). However, since this theory was a complete failure, it doesn't hurt to say it now... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 14:29 Acrofales wrote: Xatalos on the other hand is just digging his hole deeper. I want to hear why you think I'm more suspicious after posting my complete Mafia/town reads, even though you found my stupid yomi theory as unsuspicious? I really want to hear your opinion about my post, but I don't count this post as much of an opinion... (other than "your post sucks") | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 12:04 funcmode wrote: OK, a powercut just caused me to lose what was becoming a rather epic post.. it's now quite late so I'll do my best to rewrite as best I can. The people I'm most suspicious of; Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth. Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum. imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos. Semi-suspicious; willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town. Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit. HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name. Least suspicious; vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well. KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now. Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious. Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts. I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more. But for now; ##Vote: Xatalos Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions: A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 04:20 KharadBanar wrote: I'm slowly really starting to believe Xatalos is scum over Dittert. ##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos Update on my Scummiest Players List: 1. Xatalos 2. Dittert 3. yomi 4. willz22912 There really isn't any kind of an explanation of why your opinion changed? I conclude it's because of my stupid/failure post about yomi "healing himself", but even Acrofales said there was no Mafia motivation behind it, so I don't really understand the reason your opinion changed from me being #3/#4 Mafia to suddenly #1 Mafia with such a stupid reason. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 06:01 vonKlaust wrote: And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias. Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me. Wouldn't you agree that I have been less tunneling today than before? I have focused more broadly and also considered Dittert and HiroPro as top targets for lynching. Also, aggression and tunneling isn't necessarily a Mafia trait: I see no reason to push so hard for a specific target as Mafia, since that would just make you A) suspicious if he flips town or B) the target unsuspicious if you yourself flip Mafia. Too much risk for too little reward, especially considering that aggression doesn't necessarily make a good town impression of yourself either... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote: @ Acrofales You're the one who made the case against me stick, not Dittert, and a lot of that was due to me OMGUSing Dittert during the night. If I kept my mouth shut against Dittert and not let him get to me, what would your case consist of? You say you dislike connection play because it induces WIFOM, but can you really explain the motivations between myself and Dittert without it? I'm not "soft defending Dittert" I really have no clue as to what the hell his motivations are for playing this game and posting the way he has. I am making the argument that lynching Dittert now wouldn't really give us as much information compared to lynching someone else (see the post I made with my list of outcomes) Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight? Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos I don't really get this... Lynching me just because it would give good information, even though you don't believe I am the most likely Mafia, or possibly even Mafia at all? I'm willing to believe this isn't a serious vote, but if it is, I need to reconsider my opinion of you... | ||
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Dittert
United States97 Posts
On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote: I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well. That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 16 2012 07:04 HiroPro wrote: This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. Since I think you are more probably Mafia than town, I'm not going to spend as much effort in convincing you (you wouldn't likely change your vote anyway if you were Mafia - with such an easy way to save Dittert, a Mafia teammate or a harmless townie). I have to try, though. Okay, so you're suspicious of my hypocrisy about blue talk instead of the act of blue talk itself. However, you fail to see one thing: I haven't fished for blues or speculated about people's roles (outside of yomi, which was a total failure anyway and can't be considered a serious post at this point). The one thing I have done is directing blue roles, which might not usually be the best idea, but consider a couple of points: A) this is a newbie game, you can't count on the blues to know what they're doing B) even if the blues don't obey my direction, it would be now impossible for Mafia to kill either me or Acrofales without taking a huge risk. I don't think this was a very suspicious move, especially considering a lot of others suggested to shoot yomi as well (and some also to heal Acrofales). What do you mean I switched to yomi only to gather better information? You could say that about Willz's vote on me, but definitely not about my vote on Dittert. I specifically stated that lynching Dittert would provide less information than lynching yomi, so your point is completely invalid. I might have been a bit overconfident at the start because of how well my previous game went, but I still think I was somewhat reasonable in my accusations, even if I sometimes made mistakes with logical conclusions. If nothing else, my ArcticFox case generated a lot of reactions (bandwagon-jumping, refusal, ignoring) which could be analyzed later. Nothing much came out of my imallinson case, but HiroPro immediately jumped on vonKlaust, making me believe they are town&town or Mafia&town, but likely not Mafia&Mafia. My yomi case was even more succesful in pushing discussion and getting a wide scale of reactions from different people. This can all be used well if we get to see yomi's flip at some point. I don't think it's suspicious to say I'm sad about my stupidity with yomi's post, since it was totally unnecessary after all. However, looking back on it, it might not have been such a bad thing after all. Now, instead of a massive Dittert bandwagon, we have a bandwagon on both me and Dittert. This is a LOT more useful for analyzing people's behaviour later than if everyone had just voted for Dittert. In case I don't get lynched, it was actually a "good" move to make that stupid post earlier. | ||
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