Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 27

On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote:

I think yomi is Mafia even more strongly after BroodKing's town flip. The way yomi seemed so eager to shift the vote from himself to BroodKing didn't feel right to me if they were both Mafia. However, this makes more sense... He saw an innocent townie making such a hugely suspicious move and immediately jumped on it as his last hope. If he isn't Vigi shot tonight, we will have to use the whole day 2 talking about him, so it's best to get rid off him right now.

On April 14 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote:

You only said things like "I don't like Brood" and "Brood's been leading a useless discussion". Fits well into the category of Mafia teammates putting some distance between each other with weak pressure. Certainly nothing to redeem you if BroodKing flips Mafia.

On April 14 2012 07:08 Xatalos wrote:
I did the same when I was Mafia last game. I kept gumshoe as my top Mafia read while nobody else suspected him. It worked well for me there. chaoser also made his first vote for Acrofales, a Mafia teammate. That argument is just WIFOM, there's no way what you might think of as Mafia.

On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:


The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox.

On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote:


People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson.

On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote:
Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him.

On April 12 2012 18:58 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, I encourage you to vote already. Your hesitation to vote only increases my suspicion of you,

On April 12 2012 23:45 Xatalos wrote:
yomi, Dittert and HiroPro: your contributions so far are non-existent. ArcticFox posted something useful at last, so I'm almost willing to vote for someone else in his place, but you three need to post something before I can get a clear town/Mafia read on you. For the time being, I'm going to keep my vote on ArcticFox, since he's the only one I can make a strong case against at the moment. But you three are next in the line unless you convince me otherwise.

On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote:

Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust.


##Unvote
##Vote: vonKlaust

On April 13 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him.

##Unvote
##Vote: willz22912

On April 14 2012 09:54 yomi wrote:
oh ya he ends up voting for brood so that's 10 and one guy is afk so 10/11

who didn't he suspect?

On April 14 2012 08:55 willz22912 wrote:
Wow, after what happened earlier today when I was the most likely lynch candidate, I pretty much felt like giving up, which is why I made the vote on myself. I was also pretty just bummed in general and didn't really care about how the game was going to go since I assumed no one would do something as crazy as BroodKingEXE just did.

Still this leaves me with a shitty situation. I have little to no credibility (I made town wait around for so long for a bad case against a bad townie in the end)

Trying to read scum behavior after that lynch vote is also going to super hard. I did not expect the majority to change within 30m to BroodKingEXE after he made that one terrible post. It screamed scumslip yes, but now we know that Mafia had a mis-lynch practically given to them. It's highly likely that all the Mafia members are in that lynch somewhere because it was so easy to justify. Makes the rest of the town's job harder.

As to my play, I will try and step it up and be more transparent from now on, I promise. If I don't feel free to lynch me, but at this point I have to do a major rethinking of everything. I was expecting to be the lynch target on D1, and now I find myself alive but my proposed target dead in my place (and a town to boot). I won't be around for much of this night, I will be busy hanging out with family, I might be home in time for the N1 rollover, but that's not a guarantee.

I'm also going to try to tone down my post count as well, I can easily see that I have the largest filter, but it's mostly full of fluff at this point. Being active is good, spamming the thread as I have been doing is bad. This is not an excuse for me to lurk, I'm merely saying I will be posting less (and hopefully better) responses. Thanks for keeping me alive town, I'll do my best to earn this second chance.

All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything?

For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit").

What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him).

Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him.

Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)?

And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things.

On April 14 2012 15:26 imallinson wrote:
Well now the BroodKing thing has settled into my head a bit more I will post my thoughts on the current situation. Honestly this lynch sucks if we had lynched either Willz or yomi we would have got info from it, lynching Brood and him turning town. I'm not entirely sure about Willz's idea about all the scum voting for Brood because absolutely everyone who was here in the hour before voting pretty much instantly switched to Brood. Also it's perfectly possible a scum member wasn't here near the end or was lurking super hard and didn't feel the need to come out of the shadows because the Brood lynch was obviously going through.

Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers.

Dittert:
After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots.



I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet.



I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for.



It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time.



People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later).



A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing.



This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me

##FoS: Dittert

yomi:
I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you.

Xatalos:
The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you
are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody.

Willz:
Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out.

I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them.

vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases.
ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus.
Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz.
KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1.
HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people.

On April 14 2012 15:50 imallinson wrote:
I'm fine with you voicing suspicions but throwing out 4 or 5 people at a time you think are suspicious or you would be ok lynching doesn't help. All it does is confuse everyone else and erodes your credibility especially when you aren't actually backing your claims up with any evidence.

On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum.

On April 13 2012 02:58 willz22912 wrote:
No, town willing to kill other town is fine as long as you can find out the real mafia who are bandwagoning on a town for a easy mis-lynch. You rarely(never seen it) win a game of Mafia without friendly fire and mis-lynching innocent town because they played poorly, if you play poorly as town (which I've already gone over what not to do) then you deserve to get lynched. Numbers game means with 9 town and 3 mafia, you can lose up to 6 town until it's over without killing a single mafia (3-3 situation forces whichever team to have the fastest 3 votes in plurality) This is why I'm against Xatalos' case, he's making a case on another player and drawing out way too many bandwagoners who are willing to readily adopt his case because it's the only "strong" one out there. Newbie town are scared to voice their opinion so they latch onto a strong leader, but then if that leader is really mafia, then we have a bad situation for town.

On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
Numbers game means with 9 town and 3 mafia, you can lose up to 6 town until it's over without killing a single mafia (3-3 situation forces whichever team to have the fastest 3 votes in plurality) This is why I'm against Xatalos' case, he's making a case on another player and drawing out way too many bandwagoners who are willing to readily adopt his case because it's the only "strong" one out there.

On April 14 2012 19:55 vonKlaust wrote:
While I must admit that I'm not the biggest fan of Ditterts' case on Willz, I think it had one good point, namely this:



This comment by Willz is about as strange as Broods slip. Why in heavens name would town want to lynch town? Willz answers this in a post aimed at Dittert. Here's what he wrote:



There is a veeery big difference between townies willing to kill other townies and townies mislynching other townies on purpose to punish bad play. Willz however seem to think that delibretly killing people that you suspect as being town can be a good thing, because of the reason that we get information from the votes. At the same time he claims he does not like Xatalos play since it "draws out too many bandwagoners". If we want to lynch townies to analyze bandwagons(or when anyone get lynched at all for that matter), the amount of votes on that townie is gonna be pretty large. We're unlikely to get lynches with 2-3 votes. I can't see how Xatalos is doing anything bad if you at the same time hold the position that it's worth to lynch townies to get information.

Also I'm curious about this:

How does these number have anything to do with his stance Xatalos' case? I would like Willz to explain this.


And while I'm at it I would like to post a note on a similar subject:

Xatalos, I think you have to chill with your accusations. In my opinion your cases so far have been pretty weak. This plus the fact that you alot of the time seem to have 100% confidence in your reads actually spreads more confusion than helpfullness. Your reasoning is weak at times and in my opinion you base way too much of your reasoning on meta and your experiences from your previous games.
I actually think that Yomi is right when he says that you are too suspicious of people. Sure, you should call people on their bullshit, but you seem to get convinced of people being scum for any little wierd thing they post. For example in your recent case against Yomi, one of your key points is that he has said that he thinks Willz is innocent like three times troughout the thread. I don't even think this is wierd, but you seems to think that this is highly suspicious.

Sure, you can argue that he doesn't really have an explanation, but so far pretty much no one as far as i remember have actually provided any evidence on their town reads exept for saying stuff like "I think he's town because his posts seem mostly pro-town". This isn't saying more than Yomis oneliners about Willz, since it's pretty obvious that anyone who thinks that anyone is townie does this based on that they think said person have acted pro-town.

Instead of constructing cases on these kind of facts this early, I think it's better to save them for later. In my opinion we can't really make cases yet constructed on who voted for who and who thought who was innocent. However, if you see a pattern later in the game I think that could definetly be usefull. But right now, I think it's too vague.

Note that this isn't saying that I necesserely think that Yomi is town. I still think he is more likely to be mafia than most people in the thread. He has posted very little of value, and has only started to make good posts after he was voted on. I think it's a bit wierd that he wrote so few(and mostly bad) posts early in the thread, but when he was voted on he started to post alot(he posted pretty much as much text last night(EU), as he had posted since the game began. Also, he seems pretty reasonable in his defence, and in my opinion he didn't seem very reasonable earlier. I'm hoping that he will keep up the posting, and hopefully try to do more analysis.

yomi then proceeded to vote for Willz, his "most confident townie read", without any hesitation to try and save his own hide.

and finally voting for Willz (before even trying to appear useful or pro-town, or talking his way out of the situation calmly like Willz).