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On March 27 2012 01:45 Oberyn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 01:27 chaoser wrote:On March 27 2012 00:48 Oberyn wrote:On March 27 2012 00:37 chaoser wrote:
bump...come on guys, only 8 more hours till deadline and this thread is pretty dead. we can still talk about other stuff aside from risen. not everyone has spoken/taken a side either. Do you intented to actually provide other stuff to talk about or only pretend to generate discussion? Risen, why didn't you include a name in your initial role claim? Disappearing isn't helping your case. Xatalos, to be clear are you voting for Risen because you think he is scum or because there are 8+ votes on him? What is your excuse for not posting ON? I don't see how a town player can go 72 hours without providing their opinion. I generated discussion all of yesterday. where the hell were you? oh right, you were being wishy washy on your thoughts on risen. I'd hardly call your little chart of possibilities much of a contribution. The only other thing you've provided is misrepresenting a 1:1 trade for a 6:1 trade. The night hits are going to resolve whether we lynch a scum player or not. You come up with this conspiracy PGO theory, but that honestly can't be the explanation you think is most likely. worst case scenario, a mafia risen gets lynched day two best case scenario, mafia gets a single mislynch and limits discussion and a mafia risen gets lynched day three I don't understand how you call this a great plan.
limiting discussion in the opening days is huge. because not only is discussion limited but it also allows mafia two free nights to kill off the best players. your "best case scenario" is a lot worse for us than you're making it out to be.
And I didn't say that explanation was the most likely; I stated it because you tried to imply it was "just" a 1:1 trade when we have no knowledge that leads us to successfully come to this conclusion since WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE MAFIA ARE THINKING!
Just look at LoTR with the neutral balrog claim that came out of nowhere and then kita's tracker claim on me. It took town almost two extra days to finally decide to lynch iGrok and all the way till the end of the game to decide kita was mafia cause they thought "mafia wouldn't do that".
If you had to lynch three people right now, who would they be? Out of acro and risen, who would you lynch?
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On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
If you had to lynch three people right now, who would they be? Out of acro and risen, who would you lynch?
Greymist, Lyter and maybe Gumshoe.
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On March 27 2012 01:58 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
If you had to lynch three people right now, who would they be? Out of acro and risen, who would you lynch? Greymist, Lyter and maybe Gumshoe.
why only maybe gumshoe? also, you're just going to ignore risen/acro? leave that for another day?
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I thought you said exept those, and in all honesty I'd rather kill acro before risen. Since the risk reward is better but I have little time today and I didn't feel strong enough about it to argue with the majority about it.
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I don't know if I've missed something, but I'm not sure why acro is under doubt?
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On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
limiting discussion in the opening days is huge. because not only is discussion limited but it also allows mafia two free nights to kill off the best players. your "best case scenario" is a lot worse for us than you're making it out to be.
Finding and killing a mafia in the opening days is huge as well. The first is always the most difficult to find, it leads to connections to find other mafia players, the kp reduction snowballs, and the mafia has less influence midgame.
On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
And I didn't say that explanation was the most likely; I stated it because you tried to imply it was "just" a 1:1 trade when we have no knowledge that leads us to successfully come to this conclusion since WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE MAFIA ARE THINKING!
Correct. It is our job to analyze the part that the mafia is most likely thinking.
On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
Just look at LoTR with the neutral balrog claim that came out of nowhere and then kita's tracker claim on me. It took town almost two extra days to finally decide to lynch iGrok and all the way till the end of the game to decide kita was mafia cause they thought "mafia wouldn't do that".
Recently I read that game since it was recommended and I think those situations are different. A third party claim and a tracker claim serve different purposes. The first one is a play to be ignored until endgame and the second is an attempt to get the serial killer lynched and maintain thread control. Neither are limited by the fact that the claim can be likely disproved in a single cycle.
On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
If you had to lynch three people right now, who would they be? Out of acro and risen, who would you lynch?
I think Arco would be the better lynch at this point. As there are still seven hours, its possible to have the situation deal with itself and allow Risen to continue to provide checks or tie up the roleblocker with the threat of a tracker or watcher.
Future lynches would have to be based on today's flip, but I still think Greymist would be a good lynch.
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On March 27 2012 00:48 Oberyn wrote:
Xatalos, to be clear are you voting for Risen because you think he is scum or because there are 8+ votes on him? What is your excuse for not posting ON? I don't see how a town player can go 72 hours without providing their opinion.
If I had been the first voter, I would have probably voted for gumshoe... But then I saw that Risen had already gathered 5(?) votes with his anti-town behaviour, and since there was no chance to lynch gumshoe anymore (everyone seems to have written him off as a dumb townie or something) I thought that this was an okay lynch too - at least better than the previous lynch of layabout  Risen has been creating chaos in the thread and prevented a lot of potentially useful discussion, so I find it a bit hard to believe he would actually be a Detective... But considering his overall lackluster reasoning, he might just be a REALLY bad Detective. Still, this isn't a bad lynch, although not initially my favorite lynch either (I still can't let gumshoe off my suspicions, at least until he has posted more and better). I'll have to go through every player's filter to make a rank order of their suspiciousness to make my life easier...
OriginalName... Not really sure what to make of him. He's been lurking hardcore, but he hasn't made any Mafia reads for me so far (unlike gumshoe, who has been equally lurking). I mentioned evantrees's lurking because he was a runner-up in yesterday's lynch and as such SHOULD be focusing on contributing and clearing his name, but it seemed more like he wanted to hide and be forgotten... I'll have to check both OriginalName's and evantrees's filters carefully to see if there is something indicative of Mafia play (their filters are among the shortest ones though, so there isn't much to work with yet).
Are you going to vote for Risen yourself? Or for someone like GreYMisT? There's not much point in throwing a single vote at someone right now though, since they won't feel even a slight bit of pressure from that. Risen has made us waste a day on himself and most likely can't avoid being lynched at this point. If he is Mafia, my suspicions for Acrofales will drop quite a bit (I can't imagine Mafia risking two members only to waste a day of discussion). If he actually is a Detective, well... It doesn't yet reveal us Acrofales's alignment, but I'd be more cautious about him (a Vigilante hit on him wouldn't be a bad option).
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On March 27 2012 01:31 Zealos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 21:50 Mattchew wrote:On March 26 2012 20:55 Zealos wrote:
Also as one final nail in the coffin Risen, if you were dt and sure that acro was scum, why bother checking him at all? wut? It's pretty simple. If you are sure someone is mafia, then checking them isn't useful.
I'll put it this way. I am sure that Xatalos is scum, and if I was a DT I would check him to confirm. Nothing is 100% in this game and there is never too much information. Confirming your beliefs is the most important thing you can do
On March 27 2012 02:08 Zealos wrote:
I don't know if I've missed something, but I'm not sure why acro is under doubt?
Risen could be DT and acro could have checked out as scum?
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On March 27 2012 02:19 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 00:48 Oberyn wrote:
Xatalos, to be clear are you voting for Risen because you think he is scum or because there are 8+ votes on him? What is your excuse for not posting ON? I don't see how a town player can go 72 hours without providing their opinion. If I had been the first voter, I would have probably voted for gumshoe... But then I saw that Risen had already gathered 5(?) votes with his anti-town behaviour, and since there was no chance to lynch gumshoe anymore (everyone seems to have written him off as a dumb townie or something) I thought that this was an okay lynch too - at least better than the previous lynch of layabout Risen has been creating chaos in the thread and prevented a lot of potentially useful discussion, so I find it a bit hard to believe he would actually be a Detective... But considering his overall lackluster reasoning, he might just be a REALLY bad Detective. Still, this isn't a bad lynch, although not initially my favorite lynch either (I still can't let gumshoe off my suspicions, at least until he has posted more and better). I'll have to go through every player's filter to make a rank order of their suspiciousness to make my life easier... OriginalName... Not really sure what to make of him. He's been lurking hardcore, but he hasn't made any Mafia reads for me so far (unlike gumshoe, who has been equally lurking). I mentioned evantrees's lurking because he was a runner-up in yesterday's lynch and as such SHOULD be focusing on contributing and clearing his name, but it seemed more like he wanted to hide and be forgotten... I'll have to check both OriginalName's and evantrees's filters carefully to see if there is something indicative of Mafia play (their filters are among the shortest ones though, so there isn't much to work with yet). Are you going to vote for Risen yourself? Or for someone like GreYMisT? There's not much point in throwing a single vote at someone right now though, since they won't feel even a slight bit of pressure from that. Risen has made us waste a day on himself and most likely can't avoid being lynched at this point. If he is Mafia, my suspicions for Acrofales will drop quite a bit (I can't imagine Mafia risking two members only to waste a day of discussion). If he actually is a Detective, well... It doesn't yet reveal us Acrofales's alignment, but I'd be more cautious about him (a Vigilante hit on him wouldn't be a bad option).
If you aren't scum I will be shocked. and the town lost our vig, not that you would care about that.
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On March 27 2012 01:36 Acrofales wrote:
GUMSHOE: WHERE ARE YOU? I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. What do you think about that?
Remember when i did this to you and you called me scum? atleast mine was early day 1
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On March 27 2012 02:23 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 01:31 Zealos wrote:On March 26 2012 21:50 Mattchew wrote:On March 26 2012 20:55 Zealos wrote:
Also as one final nail in the coffin Risen, if you were dt and sure that acro was scum, why bother checking him at all? wut? It's pretty simple. If you are sure someone is mafia, then checking them isn't useful. I'll put it this way. I am sure that Xatalos is scum, and if I was a DT I would check him to confirm. Nothing is 100% in this game and there is never too much information. Confirming your beliefs is the most important thing you can do Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 02:08 Zealos wrote:
I don't know if I've missed something, but I'm not sure why acro is under doubt? Risen could be DT and acro could have checked out as scum?
Then by definition you can't be sure. As for acro, if the only argument for him being mafia is Risen being DT then I have no reason to think he's mafia unless Risen flips DT tonight.
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On March 27 2012 02:30 Zealos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 02:23 Mattchew wrote:On March 27 2012 01:31 Zealos wrote:On March 26 2012 21:50 Mattchew wrote:On March 26 2012 20:55 Zealos wrote:
Also as one final nail in the coffin Risen, if you were dt and sure that acro was scum, why bother checking him at all? wut? It's pretty simple. If you are sure someone is mafia, then checking them isn't useful. I'll put it this way. I am sure that Xatalos is scum, and if I was a DT I would check him to confirm. Nothing is 100% in this game and there is never too much information. Confirming your beliefs is the most important thing you can do On March 27 2012 02:08 Zealos wrote:
I don't know if I've missed something, but I'm not sure why acro is under doubt? Risen could be DT and acro could have checked out as scum? Then by definition you can't be sure. As for acro, if the only argument for him being mafia is Risen being DT then I have no reason to think he's mafia unless Risen flips DT tonight.
90% of the argument against risen is that he isn't playing right. This is a terrible argument for alignment as well. My hope is that it is a retarded 1/1 situation
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My argument against risen is not that he isn't playing well, but that he is lying. Lying is either mafia, or a town that is detrimental to the town atmosphere. Either way - Lynch.
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On March 27 2012 02:35 Zealos wrote:
My argument against risen is not that he isn't playing well, but that he is lying. Lying is either mafia, or a town that is detrimental to the town atmosphere. Either way - Lynch.
lying about?
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On March 27 2012 02:37 Zealos wrote:
Being DT.
lol and how do you know that he is lying? (do you see where i am going with this)
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Aha, this is where it gets good, and if you'd had read the thread properly, you'd see I had pretty sound reasoning for this:
On March 24 2012 07:25 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2012 07:21 Acrofales wrote:On March 24 2012 07:15 GreYMisT wrote:On March 24 2012 07:10 Acrofales wrote:
Lol. Are we seriously putting our lynch in the hands of either mafia or littlefinger?! This is really retarded. However, I have no idea where to put my vote. My earlier reads were Mattchew, Gumshoe and Zealos. Nobody else seems to want to vote for them, although for the life of me I don't know why not.
I guess I could add Evantrees to my lynch targets, if we're going to policy lynch a hardcore lurker. Another option is to lynch Nicolas. Chaoser said he'll probably be modkilled anyway?
Anything seems better than leaving it so that a mobster switches before the end with some bullshit excuse and we mislynch a townie due to derp. Or WBG jumps and we can't even retaliate by vig shotting him. You "Guess you could add Evantrees to your lynch targets?" What the crap? This entire post is just asking other people to make decisions for you. Don't read shit into it that's not there. I don't want to policy-lynch, I want to lynch Mattchew, but that is clearly not going to happen. Rather than wasting my vote there and having whoever the fuck wants switch at the last second to mislynch a useful townie, I'd rather policy-lynch a lurker or someone who's going to get modkilled. I chose the modkilled. Now stop confusing shit more than it is already and consolidate your own vote somewhere useful, or make a better case against Oberyn, because so far it has been: he's useless. He is a lot LESS useless than Evantrees or Nicolas, so if that's your criteria, your vote's in the wrong place. I'm almost positive Acro is scum, and Mattchew needs to be checked tonight. VOTE ACROFALES
On March 23 2012 23:08 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 21:11 Mattchew wrote:
lol coming from littlefinger i dont suspect it will hold much weight Unfortunately it does not, we don't know his sanity. If someone were to check you tonight and confirm then maybe it would.
Why on earth if he said this, and he was DT, didn't he check Mattchew last night? It makes no sense whatsoever, instead he claims he checked Acro, and backed up his argument by saying he thought a rolechecker should check Mattchew (derp)
On March 26 2012 07:32 chaoser wrote:
Not to mention even if there was a rolechecker it is a flawed argument, as summed up here by chaoser:
This isn't a good excuse even IF rolechecker WAS a role. Why would you take a risk and depend on someone else to do your job? Why not do it yourself? That doesn't even make any sense. That's like saying, I want to check this guy, but oh well, I won't. I'll check this other guy that I already am sure is mafia and hope that 1) someone else checks the guy I want to know about and 2) they then out themselves somehow to give us that information. WTF?
##vote: risen
Most of this argument is explained in easy to understand terms by WBG:
On March 26 2012 06:39 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 06:34 Risen wrote:
I'm done for a while. Can't keep arguing in circles. I think my logic is clear, you don't. It's over. herp derp I wanted a rolechecker to check Mattchew herp derp without even checking that there was a rolechecker herp derp my logic makes sense no matter what you say herp derp despite the fact that you just showed it's complete shit herp derp herp Sounds more like, "before I had the foresight to plan a DT claim I tried directing DTs into Mattchew and now I'm grasping at straws trying to make the statement make sense in retrospect"
On top of which, he completely avoids answering my direct question: On March 26 2012 06:12 Zealos wrote:
Even if you flipped DT, there is no reason that puts me into a scum position. You are just using threats as an attempt to stop me from pressing my case. Give us a good reason to believe you're DT, before I roleclaim as Godfather and claim you're one of my mafia buddies, as your reasoning is that roleclaims are always truthful.
Not to mention calling me and others scum with very very little to no evidence to back up his claims:
On March 26 2012 05:29 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 05:21 Zealos wrote:
Risen first, when he inevitably flips vanilla scum we can move on. EBWOP: And he solidifies his "really dumb townie" position well here (If I didn't make it clear in my previous post I think he's scum, I think Mattchew is scum, and I think Greymist is scum). He'll OMGUS me once I'm lynched and be in the clear. He deserves looking into tonight, imo.
The only argument he's made against anyone is the whole "I'm DT, lynch Acro" Doesn't this smack you as mindbogglingly stupid?
Risen is the lynch we should make today, with absolutely no exceptions, he is super scummy.
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Hokay.
I think if Risen is scum (which I believe he is) then he played his DT claim at the perfect time. We've been discussing it for nearly 40 hours now, when he's almost assuredly going to be lynched. All this has done is stifle town discussion about anyone else. Where has the discussion about Greymist been? The way the voting unfolded on Day 1 I think he is almost more scummy than Risen.
He's gone fairly inactive during Day 2 (but I don't really have any room to talk about that) but there is one post of interest:
On March 27 2012 00:57 GreYMisT wrote:
I personally am suspicious of risk.nuke. What he is doing seems exactly like what happened for the majority of election mafia. For those of you who had not read that game Risk made a case on me day1, and then relentlessly pushed it down everyone's throats. The difference in these 2 instances is that in that game his reasons were somewhat founded. Anyone who actually reads the case on me this game by him will see it is almost completely based on my "Lying" about my joke at the start of the game. My feeling is that he is trying to emulate his play from election mafia, in an attempt to appear so aggressive that he has to be a townie.
He keeps bringing up risk.nuke's admittedly poor criticisms of him. It's becoming almost a straw man for him.
risk's case against him has never been, and will never be the most damning evidence of Greymist being scum, and most of the thread realizes that, yet Greymist continues to use this "meta tunnel" argument as a tool to cast suspicion.
@Mattchew- You seem to think that Risen my actually be DT. Is that accurate, and if so who would you rather vote for? Currently your vote is still on Risen...
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Oh, and the only argument against me is that I am voting and making a case against him. If anyone can show me anything he's done right, he might have some kind of defense.
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EPT
